Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that residential electricity bills rose nearly 7 percent in 2025, double the overall inflation rate. Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee used federal data to show that while New Jersey, Indiana and Illinois saw price hikes above 15 percent, California, Arizona and Nevada experienced declines, with Nevada’s rates dropping 18 percent. The average American paid almost 7 percent more for electricity last year. Senate Democrats are now debating legislation to shift data‑center costs onto utilities amid geopolitical uncertainties.
U.S. sovereign debt surged to $39 trillion, a level analysts deem alarmingly unsustainable, as war‑related spending on Iran adds pressure. The debt rose $2 trillion in just a few months, with Biden’s administration issuing $4.7 trillion of new 10‑year debt since 2021. Experts...
The Weekly Quill — The Princely Scientists — The Power of Selectively Deceptive Data Sign in now to read the latest from @dimartinobooth and Jonathan Basile of #QIResearch https://t.co/r8mkpVrloi #federalreserve #powell #economy #dimartinobooth https://t.co/BJ2zstFVCj
Prices of New Single-Family Homes Drop Further, Inventory of Completed New Homes for Sale Highest since 2009. Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come https://t.co/xfMYbwdtVK https://t.co/ImauhfwDWA
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
U.S. regular gasoline prices jumped nearly 90 cents to about $3.80 per gallon, while diesel rose $1.40 to just over $5, according to AAA data. The surge could cost the average household more than $600 in extra fuel expenses this...
U.S. household net worth surged to a record $184.1 trillion in Q4, up $2.2 trillion from the previous quarter. The jump was powered by a $1.6 trillion rise in equity holdings as the S&P 500 rallied on AI‑driven earnings optimism. At the same time,...
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11‑1 to keep its policy range at 3.5%‑3.75%, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting for a 25‑basis‑point cut. Heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict and a jump in crude oil to above $108 a barrel...
Freddie Mac’s 30‑year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% this week, the highest level recorded in 2026. The 11‑basis‑point jump reflects heightened geopolitical tension, rising energy costs and renewed trade uncertainty, which have pushed inflation expectations higher despite a modest 2.4%...
U.S. new‑home sales plunged in February, posting a 9.5% month‑over‑month decline—the steepest drop since 2013. The slowdown coincided with mortgage rates hovering above 7%, weakening buyer affordability. Builder confidence fell to its lowest level since 2020, and unsold inventory rose...
Heritage Foundation chief economist EJ Antoni, a former Trump nominee for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, warned that the United States cannot absorb oil prices at $100 a barrel as the Iran conflict pushes Brent crude toward $110. He linked...
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell told investors he has no plans to step down, emphasizing a historic slowdown in private‑sector job creation and labor‑force growth. His remarks triggered futures markets to price in steady rates through June 2027 with only a...
The US 10yr yield is up about 35 bp since the start of the war and the 2yr yield is up about 43 bp. The 2yr break even is up 57 bp to 3.38% and the 10yr breakeven is...
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) posted a 0.7% headline increase, with core and core‑core measures both rising 0.5%, outpacing market forecasts. The stronger‑than‑expected numbers underscore lingering inflationary pressure despite recent easing in consumer price trends. The post uses the...
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously, except for Stephen I. Miran, to keep the federal funds target range at 3.5%‑3.75% on March 18, 2026. The decision reflects solid economic activity, modest labor market gains and still‑elevated inflation, while the...
U.S. primary market leveraged loan yields rose to 8.09% in March, the highest level since April 2025. The increase reflects broader pricing pressure on first‑lien institutional term loan Bs with a three‑year repayment horizon. Single‑B rated credits led the yield...
The latest Consumer Price Index showed a modest 0.3% monthly increase, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious stance, warning against premature rate cuts. The data sparked a 1.2% pullback in the S&P...
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
Takeaways from the March Fed meeting: • The era of 'easy' cuts could be over. Last year's were a recalibration; the next ones have to be earned with better inflation data or downside risks being realized. • The dots weren't as hawkish...
“.. Since the President’s inauguration last year, national debt has climbed by around $2.8 trillion.” @TIME https://t.co/mLgUsjkGpd https://t.co/cCYSRTcnd9
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that tariffs are responsible for roughly half to three‑quarters of a percentage point of current inflation and that the Iran‑related oil price surge could lift headline numbers in the short run. He warned...
US new home sales collapsed by a stunning 17.6% MoM in January, the most in 13 years. If that’s not bad enough, since the US-Israeli war in Iran began, mortgage rates have surged. TRUMP'S IN TROUBLE. https://t.co/He7ZCDPq2p
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
Wholesale inflation accelerated in February, with the Producer Price Index rising 0.7% month‑over‑month, surpassing the 0.3% consensus. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.5% m/m and 3.9% year‑over‑year, indicating persistent underlying price pressure. Finished‑goods prices jumped 1.0%...
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war....
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50‑3.75% and, via the latest dot‑plot, signaled only a single 25‑basis‑point cut for 2026 and another in 2027. The announcement sent the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down between 1.3% and...
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks https://t.co/NIh6rJDQhK Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things". https://t.co/xbrposAsbQ
Mortgage rates rebounded Wednesday, climbing to the highest levels seen in several months after three rapid repricings. A stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index lifted inflation expectations, while a $6 jump in crude oil pushed bond yields higher. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s...
Temporary Freeze or Deeper Chill? New home sales fell sharply in January to 587K (vs. 722K expected), marking the slowest pace since Oct 2022 and the steepest monthly drop since 2013. https://t.co/W9Fwrwtvjb
Will the Fed look at the data? — #charlespayne and I break it down https://t.co/qyX222T1qM #powell #dimartinobooth #economy
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
$VIX: 27.85 on March 13. 21.51 now. A 6+ point collapse in one week while oil trades near $100, the Fed just held, and private credit is cracking. Complacency doesn't announce itself. It just shows up in the $VIX. https://t.co/QOUSwv6YZ0
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%). https://t.co/yoWBJBbDDN
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
Fed held at 3.5-3.75%. 7 of 19 members see ZERO cuts in 2026. Dot plot: 1 cut this year, 1 more in 2027. Six months ago the consensus was 3+ cuts. Higher for longer isn't a threat anymore. It's policy. https://t.co/vbJxcKjym9
BofA: Total card spending was up 4.9% y/y in the week ending Mar 14 while total card ex gas spending was also up a solid 4.3% y/y ... gas spending +14.4% YoY https://t.co/wW3Jif21Sp
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge: The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s… https://t.co/L0b4ab2cDv https://t.co/JikD6d1Xxj
Powell says the economy is strong and inflation will moderate. The stock market tanked anyway. The Fed may be trapped between geopolitical shocks and economic reality. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/z9r6WCt1RC
US federal debt now officially reached $39 trillion. None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/9uWJASUd8q https://t.co/EjSvdcj9Gj
I basically agree. There are genuine anxiety closets in the labor market worth monitoring but the tenaciousness of wage growth & core services inflation suggest its state is still one of net heat overall. Modeling from the @KansasCityFed estimates we're...
Donald Trump has spent months talking about how badly he wants Jay Powell out of the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, Powell signaled the administration’s own actions have had the opposite effect: He’s prepared to stay longer than he otherwise would...
Error indeed lest we forget the avg $360 tax refund boost has been more than offset by higher gas prices? “A 25bp cut wouldn’t have been an inflation surrender. It would have been a recognition that the bigger risk is being...
Participants at the FOMC meeting rounded the wagons around Powell at a difficult moment for Fed independence. What looked like a dovish pause on the surface had hawkish undertones. Risks to meeting participants forecasts were to the downside on growth,...
"Our view is that an economy operating at a strong level, such as it is today, but which isn’t producing nearly enough labor demand should be signal enough to have the Fed cut rates a couple more times this year,...
Remember my Manifesto? He’s legally elected FOMC Chair through December 31, 2026 regardless of who’s Chair of the Fed Board “Powell would also be eligible as a governor to remain in charge of rate-setting FOMC, potentially extending his influence over monetary...
Let me be your Fed whisperer. What the Fed decided, what we can infer about it's next steps, how Iran and tariffs factored in, and what it all means for you. https://t.co/3JC756KIAH
Did he just get a briefing about what CPI is likely to be in 3q26, just ahead of midterms?
