Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
U.S. construction spending slipped in January, marking the first decline in the metric this year and signaling weakening demand in the housing sector. The drop adds pressure on GDP forecasts and could influence Federal Reserve policy as the economy navigates geopolitical uncertainty.
"Construction spending during January 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,190.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised December estimate" https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/current/index.html This below the consensus forecast for an increase, however the 2 pervious months were revised up.
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
In Q4 2025 the median price of a new single‑family home was $405,300, about $9,600 lower than the $414,900 median for existing homes. This marks the third straight quarter where existing‑home prices exceed new‑home prices, a reversal of a decade‑long premium....
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
WSJ's @NickTimiraos discusses the awkward Fed Chair transition to come, pointing to, amongst others, the "break" and "lack of continuity". That's mostly right, subject to an important caveat: Powell last December talked up productivity gains - a core argument by...
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he could envision the Federal Reserve raising interest rates if inflation accelerates amid the Middle‑East conflict, while also acknowledging the possibility of multiple rate cuts if price pressures ease. The Fed left policy...
“We revise down our consumption forecasts by 30bp due to the oil shock, which more than offsets the 20bp boost we factored in from fiscal. Real consumption grows 1.7% (4Q/4Q) in 2026. Higher prices and slower labor income growth mean...
U.S. Treasury prices have sharply declined as inflation concerns intensify, driven by surging energy commodities. Over the past month, long‑bond futures dropped six points and the 30‑year yield climbed roughly 30 basis points from its pre‑war low to 4.93%. The...
The Federal Reserve has signaled no rate cuts until late 2026, disappointing many investors. With rates expected to stay steady and inflation still above target, fixed‑income managers are seeking duration‑neutral options. WisdomTree’s Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR), a $16.66 billion ETF...
At the Exchange conference, DoubleLine deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman warned that the market’s expectation of a quick Fed rate cut—dubbed the TACO trade—is premature. He said the Fed will stay on autopilot until labor market weakness appears, and he pinpointed...
In this episode the hosts drift from light‑hearted banter about coffee‑infused drinks, relationship quirks, and upcoming birthday celebrations to a brief segue into the looming "next inflation wave" and its potential impact on everyday expenses. They share personal anecdotes about...
The Nasdaq Composite slid 2% to 21,647 points on Friday, driven by heightened market anxiety. The CNN Money Fear & Greed Index dropped to 14.6, keeping the reading in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Investors are pricing roughly a 50% chance...
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh...
The US economic situation is grim & simple, writes @LynAldenContact STAGFLATION Jobs have stalled, energy prices are squeezing consumers, yields are rising, and the Fed is trapped. Debt, war, and economic weakness are feeding each other now. #LynAlden #Stagflation #Recession #Oil...
The U.S. economy remains resilient, yet signs of fragility are emerging. DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe highlights a sharp decline in the job‑openings‑to‑unemployed ratio, now below 1.0x at 0.9x, though still above the 0.7x long‑run norm. Rising oil prices could disrupt the...
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
From December to January, US new home sales DROPPED by a STUNNING 17.6%. Sales were at their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. AMERICAN HOUSING MARKET = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/AMSqv9ZMsT
U.S. federal debt has breached $39 trillion, up $2 trillion in eight months and $2.8 trillion since the July 2025 debt‑ceiling suspension. The Congressional Budget Office now projects debt climbing to about $64 trillion by 2036, roughly $2.4 trillion annually. This trajectory forces the Federal...
"Over the past year, the U.S. has added 156,000 jobs—but healthcare alone was responsible for 375,000 new jobs." https://t.co/85IevT4vGd
New @nberpubs: "The Effects of California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage on Prices" https://t.co/pdrjLJOmR7 "Food away from home prices in California's four in-sample MSAs increased by 3.3 to 3.6 percent relative to 17 control MSAs through December 2024." 😲 https://t.co/Y6uER8kNGi
The Congressional Budget Office warns that the Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2032, primarily because fewer younger workers are contributing. Once the surplus disappears, payroll taxes will continue to fund Social Security but will only...
New @nberpubs: "Substitution and Income Effects of Labor Income Taxation" https://t.co/pjcuD9w78x "These findings imply a substantial excess burden of taxation, and that reducing top-income tax rates would increase tax revenue." https://t.co/Mjhhws6raG
New @nberpubs: "Identifying Uncertainty, Learning about Productivity, and Human Capital Acquisition: A Reassessment of Labor Market Sorting and Firm Monopsony Power" https://t.co/jCozurjBnv "We find... a lower degree of firm monopsony power than typically documented." https://t.co/alf5En23h8
The article warns that Washington is ignoring a looming fiscal cliff as deficits and debt surge. Recent policy moves—including a $200 billion request to fund the Iran war, the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and tax cuts that add $3.4 trillion to ten‑year...
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
I mostly agree w/@biancoresearch here. Covid, tariffs and Iran all had elements of supply shock. Covid's came with a demand shock too so inflation dominated Fed response. Tariffs were 2-sided; Fed first prioritized inflation, then growth. w/oil, will prob prioritize...
U.S. diesel fuel prices surged roughly 40% in the past month, pushing the average pump price above $5.80 per gallon. The spike is inflating transportation costs for trucking firms and small businesses that rely on road freight, while also feeding...
“Growth is lower, not just for one quarter. It stays lower throughout all of 2026 and all of 2027.” In English: this isn’t a blip. It’s a persistent hit to jobs, incomes, and the economy’s trajectory.
Last week I said the chance of a rate cut according to the polymarket was more than likely not happening Some thought I was wrong Needless to say no rate cut happened I need you all to pay attention… this ENTIRE YEAR (as...
The U.S. Treasury announced a limited easing of sanctions on Iranian crude to help temper a 33% surge in gasoline prices caused by the Iran‑U.S. conflict. Officials say the move aims to protect consumers and automakers, even as experts warn...
Fascinating how the surge in interest rates is driving these decisions. The US will have to address this. It’s the only way it can realistically afford a war in the first place. Inflation will be unleashed. Rates will be capped. Time to step into gold,...
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 31%...today it's 122%. US fiscal deficit/GDP was 1%...today, it's 6% on its way to 8-10% (or more if the war drags on.) Translation: "That 70s Show" will feel like "1980s Argentina with US characteristics."
Traders now price a greater than 60% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by October, after the March meeting left the policy range unchanged. A surge in Brent crude above $109 per barrel has pushed 10‑year Treasury yields to...
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
To be clear: There is nothing “supplemental” here. It’s incremental debt on top of an already large deficit. https://t.co/0Rg6IfCmHu
Market strategist Ross Gerber warned that persistent inflation is dampening optimism for both equities and bonds. He observed a surge in selling pressure, indicating investors are turning more bearish. Gerber stressed that inflation is unlikely to subside soon, undermining the...
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, "total [US] federal debt surged past $39 trillion, or 125% of GDP... Despite the federal government's fiscal time bomb, the US Congress and the President remain with...
Markets are now pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING by year-end. Not cuts. Tightening. Six months ago the market expected 3+ cuts in 2026. Next potential cut: autumn 2027. Good luck hitting even that. https://t.co/mmyLstJwNe
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
This "bet" completely ignores the negative shock to economic growth. If central banks raise rates into this, they will cause a recession. Cc @BenRamanauskas
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
"This rise in gasoline spending could potentially dampen consumers’ ability to spend on “nice-to-have” or discretionary categories. But the “good news” so far is that discretionary spending growth remains solid – in the week to March 14 it was up...
"Despite political pressure and a painful recession, [Volcker] held firm to his commitment to bring inflation down. In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on May 19, 1982, with unemployment above 9 percent and critics calling for him...
Inflation surges due to oil shocks. None of the prior episodes had U.S. interest payments reach 5% of GDP. None. Expect inflation to surge again, with the Fed having to justify a rate cut. That is certainly not priced in markets today. https://t.co/W8K6vFstbd Great chart from...
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
1973 oil embargo: inflation went from 3.6% to 12.3%. Fed's current forecast for 2026: 2.7%. Brent is at $110. Up 54% in a month. Either this time is genuinely different, or the Fed is the most optimistic institution on earth. History doesn't care about...
It’s particularly amazing because we’ve had extensive methodological changes to CPI since the blue line ended, including a major one literally the month after it ended that make this comparison apples-to-oranges.
