Nasdaq Tumbles 2% Amid Rate-Hike Fears: Fear & Greed Index Remains In 'Extreme Fear' Zone
The Nasdaq Composite slid 2% to 21,647 points on Friday, driven by heightened market anxiety. The CNN Money Fear & Greed Index dropped to 14.6, keeping the reading in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Investors are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by October, while Iran’s refusal to negotiate over the Strait of Hormuz adds geopolitical risk. Energy and financial stocks bucked the broader decline, ending the session in positive territory.
Energy Surge Deepens Fed Transition Crisis for Warsh
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh...
Yahoo Finance: “The US Economy May Be Strong — but It’s Delicate”
The U.S. economy remains resilient, yet signs of fragility are emerging. DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe highlights a sharp decline in the job‑openings‑to‑unemployed ratio, now below 1.0x at 0.9x, though still above the 0.7x long‑run norm. Rising oil prices could disrupt the...
Fed Will Prioritize Inflation Amid Oil Shock, Unless Markets Worsen
I mostly agree w/@biancoresearch here. Covid, tariffs and Iran all had elements of supply shock. Covid's came with a demand shock too so inflation dominated Fed response. Tariffs were 2-sided; Fed first prioritized inflation, then growth. w/oil, will prob prioritize...
THE FED IS IN CHECKMATE & JUST DOESN'T KNOW IT YET: Why the U.S. Debt Spiral Guarantees a New Era...
U.S. federal debt has breached $39 trillion, up $2 trillion in eight months and $2.8 trillion since the July 2025 debt‑ceiling suspension. The Congressional Budget Office now projects debt climbing to about $64 trillion by 2036, roughly $2.4 trillion annually. This trajectory forces the Federal...
Growth Slump Extends Through 2026‑2027, Hits Jobs
“Growth is lower, not just for one quarter. It stays lower throughout all of 2026 and all of 2027.” In English: this isn’t a blip. It’s a persistent hit to jobs, incomes, and the economy’s trajectory.
SA Asks: What Happens if the Social Security Fund Runs Dry?
The Congressional Budget Office warns that the Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2032, primarily because fewer younger workers are contributing. Once the surplus disappears, payroll taxes will continue to fund Social Security but will only...
Washington Ignores America's Fiscal Cliff
The article warns that Washington is ignoring a looming fiscal cliff as deficits and debt surge. Recent policy moves—including a $200 billion request to fund the Iran war, the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and tax cuts that add $3.4 trillion to ten‑year...
Rate Cuts Improbable This Year, 20% Chance in December
Last week I said the chance of a rate cut according to the polymarket was more than likely not happening Some thought I was wrong Needless to say no rate cut happened I need you all to pay attention… this ENTIRE YEAR (as...
Rising Rates Push US Toward Gold Amid War Funding
Fascinating how the surge in interest rates is driving these decisions. The US will have to address this. It’s the only way it can realistically afford a war in the first place. Inflation will be unleashed. Rates will be capped. Time to step into gold,...
U.S. Diesel Prices Jump 40% in a Month, Squeezing Truckers and Small Businesses
U.S. diesel fuel prices surged roughly 40% in the past month, pushing the average pump price above $5.80 per gallon. The spike is inflating transportation costs for trucking firms and small businesses that rely on road freight, while also feeding...
US Debt Surge Mirrors 1980s Argentine Crisis
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 31%...today it's 122%. US fiscal deficit/GDP was 1%...today, it's 6% on its way to 8-10% (or more if the war drags on.) Translation: "That 70s Show" will feel like "1980s Argentina with US characteristics."
Markets Reprice Inflation Shock, Not Recession Fears
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
U.S. Eases Iranian Oil Sanctions as Gas Prices Jump 33% Amid War
The U.S. Treasury announced a limited easing of sanctions on Iranian crude to help temper a 33% surge in gasoline prices caused by the Iran‑U.S. conflict. Officials say the move aims to protect consumers and automakers, even as experts warn...
New Spending Adds Debt, Not Supplemental Funding
To be clear: There is nothing “supplemental” here. It’s incremental debt on top of an already large deficit. https://t.co/0Rg6IfCmHu
Oil Price Surge Adds 2.8% to CPI Inflation
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
Fed Rate Cut Chance Hits Zero, Threatening Stagflation Where Bitcoin Thrives as a Hedge Against Long Term Inflation
Traders now price a greater than 60% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates by October, after the March meeting left the policy range unchanged. A surge in Brent crude above $109 per barrel has pushed 10‑year Treasury yields to...
US Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Ignored by Leaders
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, "total [US] federal debt surged past $39 trillion, or 125% of GDP... Despite the federal government's fiscal time bomb, the US Congress and the President remain with...
Markets Shift to Tightening, Cuts Delayed Until 2027
Markets are now pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING by year-end. Not cuts. Tightening. Six months ago the market expected 3+ cuts in 2026. Next potential cut: autumn 2027. Good luck hitting even that. https://t.co/mmyLstJwNe
Ross Gerber Warns Inflation's Persistence Diminishes Market Optimism For Stocks And Bonds
Market strategist Ross Gerber warned that persistent inflation is dampening optimism for both equities and bonds. He observed a surge in selling pressure, indicating investors are turning more bearish. Gerber stressed that inflation is unlikely to subside soon, undermining the...
Rate‑cut Odds Plunge From Near Certainty to 14.5%
The odds of a rate cut in 2026 have fallen to 14.5%. Just 3 weeks ago, they were nearly 100%. https://t.co/uMCjhmatJN
Ignoring Growth Shock, Rate Hikes Risk Recession
This "bet" completely ignores the negative shock to economic growth. If central banks raise rates into this, they will cause a recession. Cc @BenRamanauskas
Anemic Labor Market and the End of Passive Money Flows
U.S. labor market weakness is simultaneously curbing both supply and demand, ending the steady inflow of passive capital into equities. Immigration has stalled, population growth slowed to 0.5%, and labor‑force participation fell back to 62%, while AI and higher rates...
Treasury Yields Spike, Curve Uninverts, Signaling Rate Hike
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
Fed Inaction Fuels Gold Surge via Falling Real Rates
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
Powell Claims Pro Tem Chair Role as Fed Raises Long‑Run Growth Forecast
Jerome Powell told reporters he would assume the Fed chair’s duties pro tem if a successor isn’t confirmed by May 15, a move the Breitbart Business Digest says pits him against former President Donald Trump. At the same time, the Fed’s...
Discretionary Spending Holds Strong Despite Higher Gas Prices
"This rise in gasoline spending could potentially dampen consumers’ ability to spend on “nice-to-have” or discretionary categories. But the “good news” so far is that discretionary spending growth remains solid – in the week to March 14 it was up...
Volcker Stays Firm on Inflation Fight Amid Recession
"Despite political pressure and a painful recession, [Volcker] held firm to his commitment to bring inflation down. In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on May 19, 1982, with unemployment above 9 percent and critics calling for him...
Operation ‘Rage Flip’
Operation ‘Rage Flip’ erupted in late March, exposing extreme price volatility as a chart‑driven rally flipped a steep decline into a rapid surge. Traders on the floor, including Stephen Walton, described the move as a herd‑culling event that overwhelmed typical...
Chair Powell Has ‘No Intention’ of Leaving Fed Until DOJ Probe Ends
Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced he will stay in the role pro tem until the Department of Justice investigation into his comments concludes, extending his leadership beyond the May term expiry. Mortgage rates climbed above 6.5%, threatening the pent‑up demand...
Iran War Shock Shifts Global Central Bank Outlook, Not US
Whereas the Iran war shock has barely budged inflation expectations and no more than mildly jolted expectations of monetary policy in the US, the same shock has completely transformed the outlook for many other central banks. More charts, graphs, and...
Oil Shock Drives Inflation Spike, Interest Costs Hit 5% GDP
Inflation surges due to oil shocks. None of the prior episodes had U.S. interest payments reach 5% of GDP. None. Expect inflation to surge again, with the Fed having to justify a rate cut. That is certainly not priced in markets today. https://t.co/W8K6vFstbd Great chart from...
No New Details on Powell‑Trump Tension in Recent US Economy Coverage
A review of eight recent news items reveals no substantive reporting on a direct conflict between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and former President Donald Trump. While Trump appears in unrelated headlines, specifics about monetary‑policy disputes were not disclosed.
10‑Year Yield Climbs to 4.38%, Highest Since July
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Fed's 2026 Forecast Ignores History's Inflation Lessons
1973 oil embargo: inflation went from 3.6% to 12.3%. Fed's current forecast for 2026: 2.7%. Brent is at $110. Up 54% in a month. Either this time is genuinely different, or the Fed is the most optimistic institution on earth. History doesn't care about...
‘March Madness’ for Markets Too
In this brief episode, Andrew Sheets draws a parallel between March Madness basketball and the sudden shift in market narratives caused by the Iran conflict and a potential oil shock. He outlines how, after a period of strong economic signals—low...
CPI Changes Make Post‑blue Line Comparisons Invalid
It’s particularly amazing because we’ve had extensive methodological changes to CPI since the blue line ended, including a major one literally the month after it ended that make this comparison apples-to-oranges.
Markets Expect Fed Rate Hike Over Cut This Year
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next...
US 10‑Yr Yields Rise, 20‑Yr Near 5% Mark
UST 10 Yr Notes went home 4.386 on Friday, yield about 10.3bp's higher. 20 Yr Bonds just 2bp's away from that 5% Handle.
Inflation Double‑top Once Mocked, Now Taken Seriously
Lost count of all the times people scoffed at a 1970s-style inflation “double top.” Not as much laughter now. 😞 https://t.co/FTwzh0yQik
Nearly Half of Americans Expect Total Economic Collapse Soon
🚨 INSIGHT Nearly half of Americans predict a “total economic collapse” within the next decade. https://t.co/30yqgjJkPX
Washington Rejects Debt Brake, Fuels Fiscal Insanity
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, Washington rejected a Swiss-style “debt brake” earlier this week. NO DEBT BRAKE = FISCAL INSANITY. https://t.co/Tw28jA4nUE
Inflation Stays Hot, Jobs Data Disappoints, Macro Unchanged
PCE, CPI & PPI were running hot even before the Iran war’s oil shock, writes @JohnFMauldin @DavidBahnsen says Feb jobs data was “surprisingly bad” Mauldin sees the familiar muddle-through story with AI capex, services & manufacturing I see an "unsurprisingly bad" macro https://t.co/EGIOgUMGxc #Inflation...
10‑Year Yield Near 4.4% Sparks Epic Week Ahead
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
2‑Year Treasury Yields Surge to Highest Since July
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
Iran War Drives Market
Due to the war in Iran and the resulting inflationary effects, the market is now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Fed this year (in contrast to the previously forecast two rate cuts). Moreover, the market is now forecasting a...
Fed Rate Cut Now Expected in October 2027
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
Markets Flip to Rate Hikes as US Inflation Spikes
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
Markets See Fed Hikes, Hormuz Shock Fuels Inflation Risk
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
Fed Cuts Spark Long‑term Rate Divergence, Now at 5%
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...