Why US and UK Monetary Policy Responses to the Iran War Differ
The article examines why the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have taken divergent monetary‑policy paths in response to the Iran‑Israel conflict. While the Fed has kept policy tight, emphasizing inflation control and using liquidity facilities to cushion market stress, the BoE has signaled a more accommodative stance, citing weaker growth prospects and higher energy price exposure. The piece highlights differing macro‑data trends, fiscal constraints, and political pressures shaping each central bank’s approach, and it outlines the potential spill‑over effects on global credit markets.
Powell Reveals ‘Concern’ About Job Creation in America Right Now
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the Fed’s policy committee is increasingly concerned about a stagnating U.S. labor market. The February jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs and revisions that erased gains from December and January, leaving...
Fuel Price Surge Echoes 2008, 2022, Threatens Equities
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
Rates Aren’t High—History Shows They’ve Just Risen
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
Fire at Valero's Port Arthur Refinery Sparks U.S. Gasoline and Jet Fuel Concerns
A massive fire erupted at Valero Energy's Port Arthur, Texas refinery on Monday, disrupting a key Gulf Coast fuel hub. The incident, linked to a heater‑unit malfunction, has regulators and traders watching for possible impacts on gasoline and jet fuel...
Americans Despise Inflation yet Embrace Its Causes
Investing Quote of the Day: “I continue to believe that the American people have a love–hate relationship with inflation. They hate inflation but love everything that causes it.” - William E. Simon https://t.co/eO3YmqPZEG
Deutsche Bank Predicts US CPI Near 4% in May
Deutsche Bank forecasts US CPI to hit 3.81% in April and 4.02% in May. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/R7pCnJYmkg
U.S. Workers' Job Market Confidence Plummets to Historic Low, Gallup Finds
Gallup’s October‑November survey reveals U.S. workers’ confidence in finding a good job has fallen to a historic low, with just 28% saying now is a good time to look. The 42‑point plunge marks the sharpest slide in four years and...
The Great Easing Pause: Treasury Strategy in a Wartime Economy
The Federal Reserve paused its easing cycle in March, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50‑3.75% after three consecutive quarter‑point cuts. This “hawkish hold” arrives amid a wartime‑style energy shock that could lift headline inflation by 0.8 percentage points and...
Retail Sales Expected to Grow 4.4% This Year
The National Retail Federation, partnered with Oxford Economics, forecasts U.S. retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026, reaching about $5.6 trillion. This rate outpaces the ten‑year pre‑pandemic average growth of 3.6%, indicating renewed consumer momentum after the pandemic dip. The outlook,...
Fed Rate Outlook Shifts Higher Yet Remains Dovish
BofA: Naming the 2026 dots The distribution of dots shifted higher in March, but the voting members still lean dovish and expect to ease this year. https://t.co/Qklr1A2um1
How the Economy Would Weather Private-Credit Defaults Rising to Financial Crisis-Like Levels
Goldman Sachs’ latest research argues that even if private‑credit defaults surge to 10%—a level seen during the 2008‑09 financial crisis—the macroeconomic fallout would be modest, trimming U.S. GDP by only 20‑50 basis points. The sector, with roughly $1.7 trillion in leveraged...
BlackRock CEO Warns AI Boom Could Widen US Wealth Gap
BlackRock chief Larry Fink warned that the accelerating AI boom could exacerbate wealth inequality in the United States, flagging systemic financial risks. He linked the warning to broader concerns about energy use, tokenisation and market stability, underscoring the need for...
Toyota Commits $1 Billion to Upgrade Two U.S. Plants Amid $10 Billion Expansion Plan
Toyota announced a $1 billion investment—$800 million for its Georgetown, Kentucky plant and $200 million for Princeton, Indiana—to expand production of the Camry, RAV4 and Grand Highlander. The spending is the first tranche of a broader $10 billion U.S. expansion that could reshape domestic...
Tariffs Inflate Costs, Threaten Jobs; Need Pro‑Growth Policies
Tariff taxes are raising costs for businesses and squeezing workers. As Governor, I want policies that strengthen U.S. manufacturing, lower costs, and create stable jobs—not add uncertainty and expenses. https://sentinelcolorado.com/nation-world/nation/trumps-tariffs-are-hurting-american-manufacturers-instead-of-helping-them/
How Democrats Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Tax Cuts
Democratic lawmakers such as Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Sen. Cory Booker are proposing sweeping income‑tax cuts that would eliminate federal taxes for earners up to roughly $46,000 and $75,000 respectively, while pairing those cuts with a surtax on incomes...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 20, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third consecutive week, with the 30‑year rate up 0.06 percentage points and the 10‑year climbing 0.11 points to 4.39%. The 3‑year Treasury held steady at 3.90%. The upward movement reflects market expectations of sustained...
College Graduates See Rising Unemployment Amid AI Boom
If Generative AI is empowering people? Why are college educated graduates having a harder time finding employment? Source: a16z via Economic Innovation Group, BLS Data. The unemployment rate for young, college-educated workers has deteriorated more so than the field, and...
PMI Slump Signals Looming Stagflation Despite High Inflation
Flash PMIs drop Tuesday. First real data read since oil hit $112. In my experience, the PMIs are the most honest early signal of what's actually happening in the economy. If manufacturing and services both print below 50 while inflation expectations stay...
Fed Continues to Hold Rates Steady
The Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75%, extending the pause announced in December 2025. Officials cited elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and the potential impact of Middle‑East tensions on U.S. growth....
U.S. Construction Spending Drops in January, Hinting at Housing Slowdown
U.S. construction spending slipped in January, marking the first decline in the metric this year and signaling weakening demand in the housing sector. The drop adds pressure on GDP forecasts and could influence Federal Reserve policy as the economy navigates...
January 2026 Construction Spending Slightly Declines Amid Upward Revisions
"Construction spending during January 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,190.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised December estimate" https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/current/index.html This below the consensus forecast for an increase, however the 2 pervious months were revised up.
Long-Term Treasuries Turn Risk‑On, Driven by Hedge‑Fund Basis Trades
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
Comparing New and Resale Prices: 4Q25
In Q4 2025 the median price of a new single‑family home was $405,300, about $9,600 lower than the $414,900 median for existing homes. This marks the third straight quarter where existing‑home prices exceed new‑home prices, a reversal of a decade‑long premium....
Steepening 10‑3 Curve Signals Shift to Cyclical Value Rally
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
Fed Rate Path Likely Unchanged Under New Chair
WSJ's @NickTimiraos discusses the awkward Fed Chair transition to come, pointing to, amongst others, the "break" and "lack of continuity". That's mostly right, subject to an important caveat: Powell last December talked up productivity gains - a core argument by...
Fed's Goolsbee Says He Could See Circumstances for Rate Hike
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he could envision the Federal Reserve raising interest rates if inflation accelerates amid the Middle‑East conflict, while also acknowledging the possibility of multiple rate cuts if price pressures ease. The Fed left policy...
Oil Shock Trims Consumption Outlook, Dampening Growth
“We revise down our consumption forecasts by 30bp due to the oil shock, which more than offsets the 20bp boost we factored in from fiscal. Real consumption grows 1.7% (4Q/4Q) in 2026. Higher prices and slower labor income growth mean...
December 2026 PCE Inflation Projected at 3.1%
GS: We Now Expect December 2026 Headline PCE Inflation of 3.1%, 1pp Above Our Pre-War Forecast; Both Headline and Core PCE Could Peak Higher in a More Severe Risk Scenario https://t.co/sMwHyf6s7N
Chart Of The Day: Treasuries Trashed As Inflation Fears Mount
U.S. Treasury prices have sharply declined as inflation concerns intensify, driven by surging energy commodities. Over the past month, long‑bond futures dropped six points and the 30‑year yield climbed roughly 30 basis points from its pre‑war low to 4.93%. The...
Oil Shocks Fail to Stubbornly Raise Inflation Expectations
GS: Over the Past 40 Years, Even Major Oil Price Shocks Did Not Leave Long-Lasting Effects on Consumer Inflation Expectations https://t.co/8naRIKCG9F
Commodity Price Surge to Add 0.35pp Core PCE by 2026Q
GS: We Estimate That the Boost from Commodity Price Increases to Year-Over-Year Core PCE Inflation Will Peak Around 0.35pp in 2026Q4 in Our Baseline Scenario https://t.co/e4Hp5utn1j
Fed Disappointment May Make This Bond ETF Appealing
The Federal Reserve has signaled no rate cuts until late 2026, disappointing many investors. With rates expected to stay steady and inflation still above target, fixed‑income managers are seeking duration‑neutral options. WisdomTree’s Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR), a $16.66 billion ETF...
Housing Market Unchanged Despite War, Higher Rates
No noticeable impact from the war/higher mortgage rates in the weekly housing data yet: https://t.co/f4wx5tgXQn
U.S. Faces Soft Stagflation: Stagnant Jobs, Rising Inflation
Zero net U.S. jobs added since April 2025. Oil above $90. Inflation projections raised to 2.7%. And the Fed's dot plot has the widest internal split in years. Is America already in soft stagflation? https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman on the Fed’s TACO Trade & Fixed Income Strategy
At the Exchange conference, DoubleLine deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman warned that the market’s expectation of a quick Fed rate cut—dubbed the TACO trade—is premature. He said the Fed will stay on autopilot until labor market weakness appears, and he pinpointed...
Bessent Prioritizes 10-Year Treasury Over Brent Oil
"Bessent is obsessed with the 10-year. He can let the Brent Oil go up, but not the 10Y-Treasury." @perkinscr97 https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
War Hopes Nudge Fed Futures Toward Tiny Cut
The hope of a short-end to the war on Iran sees the Fed funds futures market swing back to a (small chance) of a cut this year--2 bp--. It was around 7 bp of tightening before the weekend and 61...
WATCH: The Next Inflation Wave Is Already Here
In this episode the hosts drift from light‑hearted banter about coffee‑infused drinks, relationship quirks, and upcoming birthday celebrations to a brief segue into the looming "next inflation wave" and its potential impact on everyday expenses. They share personal anecdotes about...
Small Rise in Private Credit Defaults Cuts GDP 0.1%
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Majority Predict US Recession Within the Year
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK
Fed Reacts Differently to Oil Price Shocks
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
US Stagflation Traps Fed Amid Jobs, Energy, Debt Crisis
The US economic situation is grim & simple, writes @LynAldenContact STAGFLATION Jobs have stalled, energy prices are squeezing consumers, yields are rising, and the Fed is trapped. Debt, war, and economic weakness are feeding each other now. #LynAlden #Stagflation #Recession #Oil...
2‑Year Yield Slides to Session Low, Bears Struggle
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% to Pandemic Lows
From December to January, US new home sales DROPPED by a STUNNING 17.6%. Sales were at their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. AMERICAN HOUSING MARKET = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/AMSqv9ZMsT
Healthcare Drives Job Growth, Outpacing National Gains
"Over the past year, the U.S. has added 156,000 jobs—but healthcare alone was responsible for 375,000 new jobs." https://t.co/85IevT4vGd
California's $20 Fast‑food Wage Lifts Food Prices 3‑4%
New @nberpubs: "The Effects of California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage on Prices" https://t.co/pdrjLJOmR7 "Food away from home prices in California's four in-sample MSAs increased by 3.3 to 3.6 percent relative to 17 control MSAs through December 2024." 😲 https://t.co/Y6uER8kNGi
Cutting Top Tax Rates Could Boost Revenue, Study Finds
New @nberpubs: "Substitution and Income Effects of Labor Income Taxation" https://t.co/pjcuD9w78x "These findings imply a substantial excess burden of taxation, and that reducing top-income tax rates would increase tax revenue." https://t.co/Mjhhws6raG
Study Finds Firm Monopsony Power Weaker Than Expected
New @nberpubs: "Identifying Uncertainty, Learning about Productivity, and Human Capital Acquisition: A Reassessment of Labor Market Sorting and Firm Monopsony Power" https://t.co/jCozurjBnv "We find... a lower degree of firm monopsony power than typically documented." https://t.co/alf5En23h8
Fed May Need Emergency 0.5% Rate Cut Amid Credit Slowdown
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.