US Labor Market Stagnates as Hiring Slows in a 'Low‑Hire, Low‑Fire' Climate
Employers across the United States are reporting a slowdown in hiring while layoffs remain modest, creating a "low‑hire, low‑fire" environment. AI‑driven capital spending, exemplified by Meta's $10 billion data‑center project, fuels short‑term job spikes but also fuels fears of longer‑term displacement, prompting analysts to warn of muted wage growth.
Initial Unemployment Claims Rise to 210,000
"In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 205,000."
Fed Governor Barr Warns Iran War Could Stall Inflation Decline and Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the escalating Iran war could lift oil and gasoline prices, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal and delaying any further rate cuts. The comment adds a geopolitical layer to the Fed’s dual‑mandate...
1990 Crisis: Central Banks Opted for Inaction Amid Uncertainty
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Jobless Claims Hover Near Record Lows Sustaining 'No Hire, No Fire' Narrative
Initial unemployment claims held steady at 210.5 k, matching the prior week and hovering near the lowest levels recorded since 1969. Continuing claims fell to 1.819 million, the smallest figure since May 2024, reinforcing the trend of a tight labor market. Bloomberg’s sentiment...
Fed Speakers Set to Drive Market Tone Today
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – March 26, 2026 🚨 Quiet data day but Fed speakers take center stage — markets watching for tone shifts as rate expectations remain in focus 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - Initial Jobless Claims: Exp. 210K; Prev. 205K 1600...
The Daily Feather — Not Importing Progress
At the March 18 FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell asked whether policymakers should look through the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran‑Ukraine conflict. Recent data show import prices for consumer goods and industrial supplies climbing 5‑6% year‑over‑year,...
Zillow Forecasts 6.48% Mortgage Rate, Outlines Three Housing Market Scenarios
Zillow Group said the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.48% on March 25 and released three scenarios that model how the rate’s duration could affect home‑buyer behavior. The forecast underscores lingering affordability pressure even as rates dip slightly.
Gold Slides as Inflation Data Stokes Fed Rate‑Hike Fears
Gold prices slipped sharply after U.S. import prices rose 1.3% month‑over‑month, reviving fears of persistent inflation and prompting Federal Reserve officials to signal further rate hikes. The move underscores growing market anxiety over the Fed’s dual mandate.
EPA Issues Temporary E15 Gasoline Waiver to Ease $4‑plus Pump Prices
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, led by Administrator Lee Zeldin, approved a short‑term waiver permitting nationwide sales of E15 gasoline from May 1 to May 20. The move targets near‑$4‑per‑gallon pump prices that have surged amid the Iran war, while sparking debate...
Ever Wonder Where $7 Trillion Goes?
On March 10, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released “Break Glass,” warning that the U.S. has virtually no fiscal space to absorb another shock. National debt has climbed to roughly 130% of GDP, surpassing the World War II peak...
U.S. Housing Market Hits Record Buyer‑Friendly Gap with 630,000 More Sellers Than Buyers
Redfin reports 629,808 more sellers than buyers in February, the largest gap since 2013 and the strongest buyer’s market on record. The surplus is tempering home‑price gains even as mortgage rates hover above 6%.
Fact‑check: Trump’s $2.31 Gas Price Claim Is Inaccurate
President Donald Trump asserted that the average U.S. gasoline price had fallen to $2.31 per gallon, but a Pulse fact‑check shows the actual average was $2.91 at the time of his State of the Union address. The discrepancy underscores how...
Paychex Posts 20% Revenue Surge, $463 Million Stock Buyback in Q3 2026
Paychex (PAYX) posted $1.8 billion in third‑quarter revenue, up 20% year over year, and returned $463 million to shareholders through stock repurchases. The results underscore accelerating demand for payroll and HR solutions as employers grapple with a cost‑of‑living squeeze.
Goldman Sachs Lifts U.S. Recession Odds to 30%, up From 25%
Goldman Sachs increased its estimate of a U.S. recession this year to a 30% probability, up from 25% a week earlier. The revision reflects tighter labor markets, higher oil prices and diminishing fiscal and monetary headroom. Competing forecasts from peers...
BlackRock's Rieder Urges Fed to Cut Rates
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said today he still thinks the 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve should cut interest rates - Bloomberg
2‑Year Yield Surpasses Fed Funds, Signals No Cuts
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
US Restaurant Chains Shut Dozens of Outlets as COVID Variant and Cost Pressures Bite
Several leading U.S. restaurant chains announced the closure of dozens of locations in the past 24 hours, pointing to weakened consumer demand after the detection of a highly mutated COVID‑19 variant and soaring operating costs. The moves underscore mounting pressure...
Gas Prices Surge 32%, Hitting Stretched Consumers
Gas was $2.93/gallon a month ago. It's $3.88 now. That's a 32% jump. The consumer was already stretched. Now they're paying it at the pump. Inflation isn't just a Fed problem. It's a kitchen table problem. $SPY $XLE https://t.co/eyD0h4taV8
OECD Predicts US Inflation Hitting 4.2% Amid Tight Labor Market
"For the US, the OECD expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year... Its price outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December, also because the labor market remains tight with slowing net migration and tariffs...
U.S. Stocks Slip as Iran Tensions Spike, S&P 500 Falls 0.4%
U.S. equities retreated on Tuesday as the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, the Dow Jones fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% amid fresh missile strikes in the Middle East and contradictory statements from President Donald Trump and Tehran. The market...
5‑7‑Year Treasurys Historically Yielded 6‑6.5%
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
Just 28% Say It’s a Good Time to Job Hunt
Gallup: Only 28% of US employees now say it is a good time to find a quality job. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/u0BrFnPngN
How Marketplaces Are Navigating the K Shaped Economy
The February 2026 jobs report revealed a modest 92,000‑person decline in U.S. payrolls, driven largely by government layoffs and the resolution of a nurses’ strike. While overall employment slipped, service and frontline positions remained stable, with quit rates climbing and...
Import Prices Surge 2.8%, Tariff Burden Shifts to US
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
One in Five Tax Dollars Go to Debt Service
"For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt" https://t.co/GZLf2MrQBV https://t.co/2mBzfPVgm2
Barclays: ECB Set to Hike as Energy Shock Hits Europe, Fed Likely to Stay on Hold
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
War‑Driven Energy Prices Fuel Stagflation Amid 4.2% Inflation
The headline is 4.2 % US INFLATION The real story is STAGFLATION Longer war = higher energy prices Higher energy prices = inflation + weaker growth The only uncertainty is how long it lasts. #OECD #Oil #Inflation #Stagflation #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #Growth #oott...
Markets Shift From Rate Cuts to Tightening Regime
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
Fed's Miran, Trump's Puppet at the Bank, Calls for Rate Cuts, Like He Always Does
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...
Billionaire Tax Threshold Drops to $50 Million—You Might Be Next
For those who think a billionaire’s tax doesn’t affect them, the threshold has just been lowered to $ 50mm. At this rate, you’re next?!
US Yield Spike Driven by Term Premia, Not Inflation
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
US Rent Growth Slows to Weakest Pace in Years, Easing Housing Inflation
A MarketWatch analysis shows U.S. rent growth has slowed to its weakest pace in years, reducing pressure on the consumer‑price index. The deceleration comes as other inflation gauges, such as unit labor costs, remain elevated, leaving the Federal Reserve with...
Fed's Losses Shrink; QE Hangover Eases After QT
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion. QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates https://t.co/iwXBD2STH5 https://t.co/JmA1t7ABYD
Mortgage Rates Surge, Home Purchase Applications Plummet 35%
There Goes the Spring Selling Season: Mortgage Rates Jump, Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop. Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen https://t.co/sR0N0Jznl0 https://t.co/Hkfy4IziDs
Weak Demand at U.S. Two‑Year Treasury Auction Signals Diminished Safe‑Haven Appeal
The latest two‑year Treasury note auction attracted below‑average demand, sending the yield down four basis points to 3.86%. The softening appetite reflects waning safe‑haven appeal as investors weigh Middle‑East tensions and a mixed equity outlook.
Fed Expands FIMA Access, Extends Window, Could Crash Yields
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Biden's Final Quarter Shows Record Economic Gains
From my receipts catalog: Joe Biden’s last quarter in Office. Like Michael Jackson once sang, “Do you remember the time?” Unemployment frolm record low of 3.2%, Inflation falling, consumer confidence rising, retail sales up, stock market stable and rising, black unemploymentT...
Oil Shock Forces Fed, Bonds, and Outflows Higher
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Trump's Policies Hurt Poor, Enrich the Wealthy
Trump was elected on promises to help working Americans catch up. His policies are having the opposite effect. Together, his tariffs and “One Big Beautiful Bill” will decrease incomes for the poorest Americans and disproportionately benefit the highest earners. Source: Tax...
US Job Search Times Hit Four-Year High, Warning Slowdown
Unemployment in the US is reaching critical levels. The average job search duration has risen to 25.7 weeks-the highest in four years. Since October 2023, the duration has increased by 6.3 weeks, marking the fastest growth since the COVID period. When it becomes...
War‑Driven Gas Prices Add $530 to Every Household Annually
For every $1 increase at the pump, the typical American household spends an extra $530 per year. Gas is costing Americans $300 million more a day than before the war. My latest newsletter, "This War Will Make You Poorer" (bit.ly/ThisWarWillMakeYouPoorer),...
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Widens to 214 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.48% Same day last year: 6.80% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.34% Spread today: 214 bps
Federal Workforce Crisis Revealed by Alarming Data
Once I got started on this piece, the numbers started talking to me, and by the end they were screaming. So I feel like I've got to share it with you: The Federal Employee Crisis Nobody's Talking About. https://t.co/6rdnuvxTW9
Gas Prices Near $4 Mark Ahead of Midterms
National average gas prices are now within cents of the pivotal $4-per-gallon threshold, which many elected officials would prefer to avoid in a midterm election year. https://t.co/Ow36WJehg7
Core PCE Inflation Hits 2.93% YoY in February
GS: We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in February (vs. 0.31% previously), corresponding to a YoY rate of +2.93%. https://t.co/qdzutjc5RO
US Faces $10 Trillion Debt Refinance, Interest Pressure Rising
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
Rising 10‑Year Yields Signal Regime Shift, Not Safety
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
Import Prices Up 2.5% YoY Amid Trump Tariffs
Looks like exporters forgot to eat Trump's tariffs, import prices rose 1.1% in February and 2.5% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7
10-Year Yield Climbs Amid Accelerating Inflation Nowcast
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%