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Understanding Producer Price Index: A Key Inflation Indicator
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures price changes at the wholesale level, capturing the cost producers receive for goods and services. It is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is broken into crude, intermediate, and core (finished‑goods) indexes, with the core version stripping out food and energy volatility. Because PPI movements typically occur before consumer‑price changes, analysts view it as a leading gauge of future CPI trends and potential monetary‑policy shifts. The index therefore helps investors and policymakers anticipate inflation pressures across the supply chain.
CPI Set to Jump Above 3%, Prompting Fed Hike
I expect the April 10th CPI print to spike 70-100 basis points, coming in north of 3%. And then the Fed is going to hike rates 🥸
Can America’s Teetering Jobs Market Avoid Back-To-Back Losses?
Traders are eyeing the upcoming U.S. jobs report amid a fragile labor market that could see consecutive weekly losses. Recent data show hiring slowing while unemployment hovers near historic lows, raising concerns about momentum. However, asset price swings are being...
Personal Services Spending Fuels 3.3% Inflation, Outpacing Fed Target
Robust consumer spending on manicures, haircuts, and dog daycare is FORCING services inflation to 3.3%/yr. That's stubbornly above the Fed's 2%/yr target. THE US WILL NEVER GET THE INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/YhMhZTG7Gl
Yield Spread Peaks, Prompting Duration Risk Exit
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
U.S. Treasury Faces Weak Demand as $10 Trillion Debt Roll‑Over Looms
The U.S. Treasury reported tepid demand for its latest 2‑, 5‑ and 7‑year note auctions, pushing yields higher as the government prepares to roll over roughly $10 trillion of maturing debt. Analysts warn the shortfall could spill over into corporate borrowing...
Recession Odds Near 50% as Soft Landing Remains Priced
Goldman 30%. JPM 35%. Zandi 49%. Recession odds are climbing fast. When does consensus cross 50%? The market is still priced for a soft landing. Economists are no longer calling it one. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/XqeBtrupla
Higher Mortgage Payments Stall Spring Home‑Buying Rebound
Mortgage payments averaged $2,035 in 2024, the highest in a decade, as higher rates and home prices curb the spring buying surge. National Association of Realtors data shows single women now out‑earn single men among first‑time buyers, but overall affordability...
Costco Reports 3.1% Rise in Member Visits as Shoppers Tighten Belts
Costco's CFO Gary Millerchip told investors that worldwide member traffic grew 3.1% and average transaction value rose 4.2% in the latest quarter. The shift comes as inflation squeezes disposable income, prompting the warehouse club to lean on habit and its...
JPMorgan Says Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely in H2 2026, Citing High Hike Bar
JPMorgan chief strategist Oksana Aronov told CNBC the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates in the second half of 2026, arguing that the bar for any hike remains high. The comment comes as CME FedWatch data shows traders have...
US Inflation Rises; Ongoing US‑Iran Conflict Keeps It High
🇺🇸 US inflation keeps rising. As long as the US-Iran conflict persists, inflation will likely stay elevated. https://t.co/LatxByAQYN
Congressional Push to Suspend Gasoline Tax as Fuel Prices Spike to $90 per Barrel
U.S. lawmakers are advancing a proposal to temporarily suspend the federal gasoline tax in response to soaring fuel costs, with crude oil prices climbing above $90 a barrel after the Iran conflict escalated. The move aims to ease pressure on...
US Job Market Likely Thawed Out This Month After February Chill
U.S. employment is projected to rebound in March after February’s sharp 92,000‑job loss, the steepest payroll decline since the pandemic began. Bloomberg’s median survey predicts roughly 60,000 new jobs for the month, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold...
Iran War Triggers Four-Week Mortgage Rate Surge
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
Debt Could Surge $11 Trillion Under Trump’s Term
The National Debt Could Hit $50 Trillion Trump says we need short-term pain for long-term gain – but I'm not hearing anything about cutting government spending or raising taxes to cover the $50 billion we keep borrowing. I'm predicting the national...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review): 30th March – 3rd April 2026
The week ahead is dominated by central‑bank minutes and key data releases that could reshape monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a hawkish tone after a 25‑basis‑point hike to 4.10%, while the Eurozone’s CPI flash jumps...
Consumer Sentiment Hits Dec‑2025 Low Amid Gas, Market Turmoil
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu ”Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating...
Short‑term Yields Drop, Long‑term Rise; Gold Steadies
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Senator Elizabeth Warren Revives 2% Wealth Tax on Fortunes over $50 Million
Sen. Elizabeth Warren and more than four dozen Democrats have reintroduced the Ultra‑Millionaire Tax Act, imposing a 2% annual levy on net worth above $50 million and an extra 1% surtax on assets over $1 billion. The bill, backed by 10 Senate...
Swift Beef Strike Enters Third Week, Threatening U.S. Beef Supply
Swift Beef workers at JBS USA's Greeley, Colorado plant have extended their walkout into a third week, with 99% of the 3,800‑strong United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7 backing the strike. The labor dispute pits workers demanding higher pay...
Iran War Sends Brent to $120, Spurs Global Recession Fears and Strait of Hormuz Blockade
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war has pushed Brent crude to about $120 a barrel, shut 20% of global oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and sparked warnings that soaring energy costs could tip the United States toward recession. The crisis is...
Markets Tumble as Fed Hike Odds Surge to 52%
The Dow just entered correction territory. Down 10% from its peak, joining the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight losing week — longest since 2022. Oil blew through $100. Futures traders now price a 52% chance the Fed...
Goldman Sachs Predicts US Economy Hit by Trump's Iran War
Thanks to Trump's war on Iran, Goldman Sachs concludes that the US economy will take A BIG HIT. It's time to start taking the 2nd President of the U.S. Thomas Jefferson's proclamation seriously: "I hold it that a little rebellion now...
Fed Officials Warn Iran Oil Shock Could Lift Inflation Expectations and Keep Rates on Hold
Federal Reserve governors Michael Barr, Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson warned that the Iran‑driven oil price surge could push inflation expectations higher, reinforcing the decision to keep the policy rate steady at 3.50‑3.75%. Their comments signal a more guarded outlook...
Rising Yields and Growth Fears Prompt TLT, SPY Sell‑offs
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
Fed Futures Show 28% Chance of October Hike
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL
Bond Sell‑Off Accelerates as Yields Spike, Investors Flock to Chinese Fixed‑Income
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2‑year rate hitting 3.98% and the 10‑year at 4.39%, triggering the sharpest bond‑market sell‑off since the Iran conflict began. Capital rotated into Chinese sovereign and corporate bonds, signaling a new safe‑haven preference amid heightened...
Rate Hikes Shrink Cash, Cuts Boost Household Spending
Research finds that rate increases lead to lower cash-on-hand and lower household spending, whereas spending rises following rate cuts. https://t.co/bDbE1CT1AB
BA Wage Premium Plummeted During Pandemic, Rebounded by 2025
What's interesting is that if you align on experience [left], comparing entry level workers with a BA to younger non-BA workers with little/no experience, the BA wage premium was stable for decades then fell precipitously during the pandemic, only rising...
It Was an Ugly Week on Wall Street, Andrew Bary Says
Andrew Bary described the past week on Wall Street as "ugly," highlighting a sharp decline in major equity indexes and heightened volatility. The S&P 500 slipped more than 3% as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and weaker...
Two Distinct Causes Behind Last Year's Manufacturing Job Decline
1/5 Good Chris Griswold piece on the implications of the decline last year in manufacturing jobs. I would add one other thing, and that is that there are two completely separate reasons for a decline in manufacturing jobs.
All Tax
100% of any tax increase should go to pay down the deficit. I would love to hear Republicans twist themselves into knots over this.
Oil Prices Top $100 as Iran War Fuels US Inflation Fears
Global oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the Iran war intensified, prompting UBS analysts to warn of higher US inflation expectations and a possible slowdown in consumer spending. The spike is already reverberating through supply chains, fuel markets...
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The week of March 30‑April 1 will be unusually quiet in Washington as Congress and most regulators pause for Easter and Passover, but key events include a moderated discussion with Fed Chair Jay Powell at Harvard and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman...
Weighing Recession Probabilities
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi and co‑hosts discuss the rising probability of a U.S. recession amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, higher oil prices, and tightening financial conditions. Using a random‑forest model that aggregates dozens of leading indicators—especially labor market...
Consumer Confidence Continues to Drop as Gas Prices Rise
U.S. consumer confidence slipped 6% in March, reaching its lowest level since December, as gasoline prices rose to an average $3.98 per gallon—a full dollar increase from the prior month. The University of Michigan’s survey shows short‑run economic outlook plunging...
European Shares Slip as Inflation Fears and Slower Growth Outlook Loom
European equity indices drifted lower amid rising inflation expectations and a dimmer growth outlook, echoing broader market anxiety sparked by the West Asia conflict and higher oil prices. Analysts warn the trend could tighten U.S. monetary policy and dent consumer...
Tariff Revenue Too Small to Fund Stimulus Checks
Trump bragged that his tariffs are making so much money, he will be able to send stimulus checks to every American. The truth: tariff revenue is a drop in the bucket in reducing the federal deficit. Source: Peterson Institute
Market Slashes Feb Rate‑cut Odds; Fed Put Dead
The market was pricing a 100% chance of rate cuts in February. That number is now 16%. The Fed put is dead.
7‑Year Treasury Auction Draws Weak Demand, Yield Peaks at 4.26%
The U.S. Treasury sold $44 bn of seven‑year notes on Thursday, posting a high yield of 4.255% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.43, the lowest in ten auctions. The weak demand follows similarly tepid interest in recent two‑year and five‑year auctions,...
2026 Rate Hikes T
.@grok what do you think the answer is for possible rate hikes in 2026, as opposed to the three cuts? 1. Wars 2. Tariffs 3. Stopping illegal, and dirt cheap, immigration
2026 Could Mirror 1970s Oil Shock, Stocks Crash
Per @grok If 2026 plays out like the 1970s oil shock (Nixon Pres): Stocks: S&P crashes another 40%+ (total ~45-50% drawdown) Oil: $150–$200+/bbl as Hormuz pain drags Rates: Fed funds rips to double digits (teens possible)
Bending the Curve of Health Care Costs (At Last?)
Health care spending in the U.S. rose from about 5% of GDP in 1960 to 17% in 2010, then slowed markedly after 2010. Cutler and Klarnet attribute the slowdown to five factors—cost‑saving technology (≈21%), reduced demand (10‑26%), supply‑side price reductions...
US China Trade Gap Narrows, Overall Deficit Hits Record
"The U.S. goods trade deficit with China shrank 32% to $202 billion last year..., the narrowest since 2005. Yet the overall U.S. goods trade deficit grew 2.1% to a record $1.24 trillion because U.S. importers shifted rapidly to other markets"...
Massive Debt Turns US Stagflation Into Depression
Stagflation when the US government has nearly $40 trillion in debt is a depression. Few.
Rising Treasury Yields Are Spooking Investors: Should Buy-and-Hold Investors Care?
The 10‑Year Treasury yield, which peaked above 5% in late 2023, has rebounded to roughly 4.4% after a dip to 3.8% in August 2024, reflecting lingering inflation and geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve has held rates steady this year, but...
Analysis: What Might Trip up Kevin Warsh and His Agenda as Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor backed by President Trump, is poised for a contentious nomination as Federal Reserve chair. He advocates rapid rate cuts despite $100‑a‑barrel oil prices and rising inflation forecasts, while also promising to slash the Fed’s...
Citi Holds S&P 500 Target Despite Iran Tensions and Pullback
Citi holds firm on S&P 500 target despite Iran tensions and the current market pullback ... the market won't bottom until the sellside slashes YE targets https://t.co/wcQjQH879W
7% Mortgage Rates Trap Sellers in Negative Real Yield
Mortgage interest rates are hitting 7 percent and sellers are locked into COVID era mortgages that are in negative real interest rate territory. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jUHCvyVvDx
Good‑paying Jobs for Recent Grads Plummet over 25 Years
I think this data is more revealing of what's happened in the last 20-25 yrs. The NY Fed has tracked the proportion of underemployed recent college grads in good-paying jobs v. low-paying jobs. The proportion in good-paying has dropped sharply....