JOLTs Job Openings for February 6.882 Million versus 6.918 Million Estimate
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report shows February job openings at 6.882 million, missing the 6.918 million forecast. Hires slipped to 4.849 million, while quits fell to 2.974 million, indicating waning worker confidence. Layoffs and discharges rose modestly to 1.721 million. These figures suggest a cooling labor market after months of strong demand.
March 2026 Jobs Report Preview: What to Expect
The March 2026 jobs report is expected to show a further slowdown, with total job gains likely falling below the already‑weak three‑month average of 8,000. Health care and social assistance should remain the only sector posting net hires, while restaurants...
New Strait Strategy Sparks Slugflation, Overvalued Stocks
@jimcramer @carlquintanilla Jim I respectfully disagree with your upbeat assessment (as it relates to equities) of the new strategy to cede control of the Strait. The knock on consequences of this new strategy are broad, inflationary and economic dulling. The policy...
10‑Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.4%, Investors Misread Market Signals
The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.4% after a volatile climb, prompting investors to overreact to the move. Analysts say the rise reflects lingering inflation worries and a market that has abandoned hopes for rapid Fed rate cuts, while...
Construction Wage Escalation Reaccelerates
Construction wage growth, which had slowed throughout 2023 and most of 2024, re‑accelerated in November 2024. By February 2025, production‑employee earnings were up 5.1% year‑over‑year, the strongest gain in over two years. Specialty‑trade contractors led the surge, with a 6.5%...
Credit Card APRs Have an 'Economically Meaningful' Impact on Consumer Spending, Boston Fed Finds
The Boston Federal Reserve’s new paper shows that a one‑percentage‑point rise in credit‑card APR cuts overall card spending by about nine percent, roughly $74 per consumer each month, and up to fifteen percent for balance‑carrying borrowers, especially lower‑income households. Average...
Fuel Hits $4+ per Gallon, Spurring Spending Slowdown
The AAA average fuel price is officially over $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-August 2022. Prices are up over $1 since the war in Iran began. Americans are paying $50 a month more in fuel costs. This is a...
ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Trading Strategy For Stocks
The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) gauges U.S. manufacturing health, with readings above 50 indicating expansion. A backtest linking PMI to the S&P 500 shows a 7.3% annual return when the index stays above 50, slightly underperforming...
Key U.S. Data and Fed Speeches Signal Softening Outlook
Economic Calendar for Tues. March 31 9:00am - Case-Shiller home price y/y for January: Expected 1.37%; Prior 1.4% 9:45 - Chicago PMI for March: Expected 54.6; Prior 57.7 10:00 - JOLTS job openings for February: Expected 6.895M; Prior 6.946M - CB consumer confidence for March: Expected 88; Prior...
U.S. Economy Can Absorb Higher Oil Prices, Avoid Recession
Not saying it’s going to be enjoyable or inherently desirable, but the US economy can handle substantially higher oil prices without falling into recession
The Daily Feather — Cooler in Texas
Bison Coolers, a Texas‑born brand, is seeing rapid growth as local consumers seek rugged refrigeration for outdoor work and recreation. Recent data shows the Cooler Industry Sentiment Metric (ISM) climbing, while non‑performing loans (NPLs) across the region are also rising,...
Fed Aims to Curb Wages to Hit 2% Inflation
The Fed would like this lower to get wage growth back down to 3% or lower to target 2% inflation.
Trump's Overtime Tax Deduction Hits, Stumps Democrats
President Donald Trump’s new tax deduction for overtime looks like a hit this filing season, and that’s shaping up to be a big challenge for Democrats. via @Brian_Faler https://t.co/fpMNZCrW6U
Powell’s Inflation Reassurance Sends Gold Up 1% and Eases Rate‑Hike Fears
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told investors that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that the Fed will “wait and see” on policy, prompting spot gold to rise nearly 1% to $4,560 an ounce and pushing Treasury yields lower. The remarks...
Diesel Prices, Not Gas, Threaten US Inflation Surge
The bigger concern for the US economy isn't gas prices, but diesel prices, as @amoshochstein tells @annmarie just now. They're at the highest since 2022 and bumping up against those highs, at $5.45 a gallon. That's the price that'll pressure...
What a US Fed Rate Hike Could Mean for These Key Stock Sectors
The Federal Reserve’s odds of raising rates in 2026 have jumped to about 20% after the Iran war sparked a 30% surge in gasoline prices and renewed inflation worries. Analysts warn that a rate hike would push investors into a...
Central Banks, Not Treasuries, Curb Debt Monetization
Indeed no Treasury has ever said "stop monetizing debt, that's inflationary." It is the independent central bank's job to push back on debt monetization.
How Much Will Reported Confidence Decline in March?
The Conference Board will release its March consumer confidence index tomorrow, with a nowcast estimate of 86.6 points based on a regression model that incorporates University of Michigan sentiment, gasoline price growth, and lagged confidence. Bloomberg’s consensus forecast is slightly...
Powell Denies QE's Role in Inflation and Inequality, Lies
Today, in a speech at Harvard, Fed Chair Powell claimed that QE (the explosion of the money supply) did not cause inflation, nor did it contribute to the massive increase in US income inequality post-COVID. Those statements are blatantly UNTRUE. THE FED...
Rising Commodity Prices Signal Inflation Pressure, Fed Worried
🇺🇸 Commodity prices and inflation in the U.S. Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between them. The Fed has reason to be concerned, experts note. https://t.co/bbqfZAAukN
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 27, 2026
Long‑term U.S. Treasury yields rose during the week ending March 27, 2026. The 30‑year note gained 0.02 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield climbed 0.05 points to 4.44 percent. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.94 percent. The modest increases reflect ongoing market expectations of...
Monday - March 30, 2026
The Dividend Cafe episode dissected the recent market turbulence, highlighting a volatile day where the Dow barely rose while the S&P and Nasdaq fell, and noting the outsized losses in high‑valuation tech and AI stocks like NVIDIA and Palantir. Host...
Jerome Powell Says the $39 Trillion National Debt Is ‘Not Unsustainable,’ but Warns the Trajectory ‘Will Not End Well’
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Harvard students that the United States’ $39 trillion national debt is not immediately unsustainable, but the current fiscal trajectory is. He warned that debt is growing faster than the economy, pushing the debt‑to‑GDP ratio toward...
Fed Can Pause; War‑Driven Inflation Expected to Fade
Williams of @NewYorkFed echoes Powell’s view this morning that the Fed can afford to wait and see the economic impact of the Iran war before making any policy moves. He expects the burst of inflation stemming from the war to fade...
Adam Lewis, General Manager, Talent and Workforce Management, Viventium — Founder, Apploi
Health care hiring remains a primary engine of U.S. job growth, projected to add 693,000 positions by 2025. Without those additions, the broader economy would lose roughly 570,000 jobs, highlighting a stark labor gap. Viventium’s acquisition of Apploi positions the...
Markets Show Capitulation: Yields Drop, USD Rises, Equities Fall
We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation. When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like...
Oil, Sentiment, and the Correction That Nobody Wanted
The S&P 500 closed its fifth straight losing week, falling to 6,368.85 and slipping into correction territory. Oil prices surged, with Brent near $107 per barrel and WTI above $93, pushing the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.44%, its highest level...
Jeffrey Sherman: Oil Price Causing Its Own Rate Hike | CNBC
Jeffrey Sherman of DoubleLine told CNBC that soaring oil prices are effectively creating a self‑inflicted rate hike, urging the Federal Reserve to look beyond commodity‑driven inflation and focus on labor‑market dynamics. He cautioned against aggressive cuts to the federal‑funds rate,...
Fed Chair Powell Sees No Threat of Private Credit 'Contagion,' Says Interest Rates Are in a 'Good Place'
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a Harvard audience that private‑credit markets are experiencing a correction but pose no immediate contagion risk to the broader financial system. He said the Fed is closely monitoring any links to banks and finds...
US Holds $27.5T Net Position, Funding Global Needs
The BEA updated the US net international investment position last week for Q4 '25 and it stood at $27.5 trillion. That's the amount of assets foreigners own in the US vs what the US owns in the rest of the...
Transcript: Judd Kessler, Lucky by Design
Judd Kessler, a Wharton professor and author of *Lucky by Design*, explains how market design governs the allocation of scarce resources—from organ transplants and school seats to concert tickets and restaurant reservations. He illustrates that many everyday “luck” moments are...
Oil Shock Sends S&P 500 Below Anchored VWAP, Igniting Risk-Off Week
A surge in oil prices sparked a risk-off market week, driving the S&P 500 below its anchored VWAP from April 2025 lows. The technical breach highlights heightened selling pressure and a shift in market structure as traders brace for further...
Powell: Fed Monitors Private Credit, Won’t Eliminate Risk
On private credit, Powell said it was a "relatively small part of a very large asset pool" that the Fed was watching "super carefully" About financial regulation more broadly, Powell said the Fed "shouldn't be trying to regulate risk out of...
2026 Real Income Growth Slips to 1.7%, Low-Income Lag
GS: We Now Forecast Only 1.7% Real Income Growth in 2026, With Significant Underperformance Among Lower-Income Households https://t.co/fOdqPIkwQw
BIG NUMBER 3.73%
Investors now expect the Federal Reserve’s benchmark federal funds rate to end 2026 at 3.73%, near the top of its current 3.50‑3.75% range. This marks a 70‑basis‑point increase from a month ago when three cuts were anticipated, driven by heightened...
Private Credit Stress
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
Candidate Calls for Retroactive 100% Wealth Tax Since 1964
Democratic candidate for president, 2028: "I am proposing a 100% wealth tax retroactive to 1964 that kicks in at $5."
10‑Year Yield Breach: Will Geopolitics
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
Rising 10Y Yields and Inflation Pressure Asset Prices
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
Powell Warns: Rapid US Debt Growth Demands Action
Powell says US debt is growing fast, and that something needs to be done Powell has also been the Fed Chair the last few years and holds some power What has he been doing? https://t.co/c7TWjsGmju
Gallup: 72% Say Job Market Is Terrible Amid Trump Policies
The latest Gallup survey found that job sentiment has PLUNGED. 72% of American employees said it was a BAD TIME to find a quality job. TRUMP’S TARIFFS + TRUMP’S WAR ON IRAN = US JOB MARKET TROUBLES. https://t.co/7LmRVUwORW
Fed's Silence Leaves Price as Only Clear Signal
People want ‘clarity’ from the Fed. You’re not getting it. The only clarity is price. Watch cross-asset divergence — it’s the market’s way of calling BS. https://t.co/DOeCFhRtA4
Lower Rates Lift Yield‑Sensitive S&P Sectors, Not Small‑Caps
Lower rates today helping yield-sensitive S&P 500 sectors.. but not the small caps... 8/11 SPX sector ETFs up with the index -0.15% https://t.co/1d07AUB0cD
Debt Levels Make 1970s Stagflation Comparison Unrealistic
Everyone comparing today to 1970s stagflation is being too optimistic. In 1980, debt-to-GDP was 26%. Today it's 122%. There is no Volcker option when you owe $39 trillion. This isn't stagflation. It's a depression in slow motion. https://t.co/V2YAlnMATp
Powell Unconcerned About Inflation, Signals Hard Assets
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation. Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :) Two words come to mind: Hard Assets. https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38 https://t.co/POZgWWN4c6
Navigating Inflation Amid Persistent Supply Chain Uncertainty
This growing supply chain uncertainty plus past few years of above-target inflation makes it increasingly hard to "look through" supply shocks. Here is one way to navigate this inflationary minefield: https://t.co/ihDcQmhv7a
College Tuition Has More than Tripled Since 1997
Since 1997, the price of college tuition in the United States has more than tripled. https://t.co/5Atv7qDx6T
Powell Refuses to Entertain Warsh's Rate‑cut Pitch
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."
US Treasury Yields Slip, 10‑year Hits 4.334%
Tplex: UST Yields moving lower today.... Dimes +24/32's 110-29 10 Yr Notes 4.334% (-10.6 bp's)
Powell Claims Inflation Expectations Still Well Anchored
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY