Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2026
The Peterson Institute for International Economics released its spring 2026 Global Economic Prospects, outlining the latest outlook for the United States and major world economies. Karen Dynan warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict and volatile energy prices are tightening growth forecasts and stoking inflation globally, while complicating monetary policy. Jed Kolko highlighted how immigration trends, artificial‑intelligence adoption, and data‑measurement gaps are reshaping U.S. labor‑market dynamics and creating uncertainty around hiring slack. Tianlei Huang examined China’s property‑sector slump, its fiscal repercussions, and the potential spillover effects on the broader global economy.
2026 Dot Rise Missed; Haw
Those predicting the 2026 dot would rise to no cuts just didn't do the math. What did happen is the 3 Most hawkish reduced from a protest hike to a pause (less hawkish) 3 middle doves got modestly more hawkish And Miran the...
Fed On Hold, Retains 2026 Rate Projection Amid War Angst
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the 5.25%‑5.50% range, reaffirming its projection that rates will remain at this level through 2026. The decision followed a two‑day policy meeting marked by cautious deliberations but no...
Core PCE Above Target, Fed Still Plans Rate Cut
Core PCE inflation has been marching upwards (>1% above target). Yet Fed officials are only inching up their forecasts (they're still offsides) No downside changes to u3 or output gap. Yet the Fed is still penciling in a cut for this year....
Fed Sees Modest Iran‑driven Inflation, Limited Cuts Ahead
Take a look at the Fed's new projections: 1 rate cut in 2026 1 rate cut in 2027 Higher inflation forecast **Slightly higher GDP forecast** --> this signals they are NOT projecting "stagflation" Unemployment rate staying around the current level (4.4%) Bottom line: Fed currently signaling...
Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 FOMC statement kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent, pausing further hikes. The Committee noted solid economic expansion, modest job gains and a stable unemployment rate, while inflation remains somewhat elevated...
Fed Holds Rates, Forecasts First Cut Only in 2026
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
Fed Holds Rates as Yields Slip Amid Iran Conflict and Internal Divisions
The Federal Reserve will announce a hold on its benchmark rate at the March 2026 meeting, while 10‑year Treasury yields slipped to 4.202% amid soaring oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. Market participants cite a near‑certain pause, internal disagreements...
Higher Energy Prices Might Eat Your Tax Refund, Economists Say
Stanford economists estimate that rising gasoline prices could cost the average U.S. household about $740 this year, roughly matching the projected $750 boost from the 2023 tax refund legislation. Their model assumes a brief Strait of Hormuz closure, with gasoline...
Building Material Price Growth Remains Entrenched Above 3%
The Producer Price Index shows residential construction inputs rising 0.7% in February, pushing the year‑over‑year price index for new‑home inputs to 3.4%. Goods components, which make up roughly 60% of the index, climbed 1.1% month, the strongest gain since August...
Trump's Influence Undermines Fed Credibility Amid Rate‑Cut Skepticism
When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how...
The Fed Holds — And Every Word Matters
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate at the 3.50%‑3.75% range, marking a second consecutive pause after three 25‑basis‑point cuts in late 2025. Markets have already priced in the hold, so investors will focus on Chair Jerome...
Fed Likely Holds Rates as Iran War Fuels Uncertainty
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at a tenuous moment for the economy as the Iran war drags on. The conflict is expected to amplify internal divisions, injecting yet more uncertainty into the debate around when the Fed...
Powell Hints at Skipping SEP, New Chair Needed
Powell: if we ever were to skip an SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), this would be a good one. We just don't know. Um, the Fed does have the power to skip the SEP. But I gather it takes a new...
Wholesale Inflation Rose Sharply Ahead Of Iran War
U.S. wholesale price growth accelerated sharply in March 2026, marking the third consecutive month of above‑trend increases according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Wholesale Price Index rose 0.7% month‑over‑month and 4.2% year‑over‑year, the fastest pace since 2022. The...
Powell’s Frustration Signals Moderately Hawkish Stance Amid Stubborn Inflation
At the Fed press conference, Powell reflects some frustration that inflation hasn't moved more sharply toward target, as tariff-fueled prices are still working their way through the system. This is a moderately hawkish presser, for reasons that largely pre-date the...
Overemphasizing Supply Shocks Fuels Policymaker Fear
Don't understand why another supply shock should affect the path of rates. Excessive focus on supply shocks as an explanation for pandemic inflation is a problem. Its causing excess fear from poliymakers today.
Powell Predicts Inflation Progress, Anticipates 2024 Rate Cut
"The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation...we should be seeing that" --Powell, on why there's a rate cut projected for this year
Powell: Five Years Off‑Target Guides Oil Surge Tolerance
In response to a question from @colbyLsmith, Powell acknowledges that 5 years of missing the inflation target will help inform the degree to which the FOMC can look through the oil price surge.
Services Inflation Accelerates Across Broad Range of Categories
Don't know why he said this, services inflation is also accelerating across a broad range of categories
Powell: Oil Price Spike Lifts Short‑term Inflation Expectations
Powell: "Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks likely reflecting the rise in oil prices causes by supply disruptions in the Middle East"
Powell Skips Service‑sector Disinflation Comment From January
Powell just OMITTED this line about "disinflation in the service sector" (vs January press conference) https://t.co/knGJ2D4YW2
Fed Says Supply Shock Shouldn't Trigger Rate Hikes
The Fed disagree with markets on this (and I largely agree). A supply shock -- especially one that doesn't really move core inflation -- should not automatically lead to higher rates. https://t.co/V0LS0P6sGE
Powell Warns: Labor Demand Softens
Powell: "Job gains have remained low." "Labor demand has clearly softened as well." "The median projection of the unemployment rate is 4.4% at the end of this year." "Inflation remains somewhat elevated."
Trump’s Economic Metrics Plummet, TSLombard Shows
According to TSLombard, Trump’s numbers are horrible on just about everything, but on the economy it is looking really bad. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/Ro8tuPfMZk
Markets Rally as Fed Turns Less Hawkish than Expected
Last year markets sold off on less dovish than expected Fed. Today they find relief on less hawkish than expected.
Fed's Projections Remain Low, Ignoring CPI and P
It is (too) low. Guessing some of the Fed officials were not willing to fold in Feb CPI data into their projections. And certainly not today's PPI data
FOMC Inflation Forecast Rises for 2026‑2028
The distribution of the FOMC inflation outlook shifted to the right (higher) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 https://t.co/6hxNK4fUdP
Fed Sees Optimism: Growth up, Jobs Down, Inflation Easing
Fed SEP shows a lot of optimism with GDP growth picking up, the unemployment rate coming down and inflation easing.
FOMC Keeps Short‑Run Rates, Raises Long‑Run Growth Outlook
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
FOMC Holds Rates, Keeps Forward Guidance Steady Amid Iran Uncertainty
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Fed Holds Rates, Core Inflation Forecast Rises
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
Producer Prices Surge, Undermining Fed’s Rate‑Cut Gains
Hot Producer Price Inflation Adds to Fed’s Complex and Worsening Inflation Problem. Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods https://t.co/bCQedto2Yy https://t.co/l9dugS4fI2
Job Gains Skewed to Healthcare and Education, Masking Contraction
Nearly all net job gains are in healthcare and education. Strip those out and the labor market is contracting. The headline number is a mirage. https://t.co/OY4R3G58U5
FOMC Likely Holds Rates, Eyes Updated SEP Forecasts
FOMC rate decision incoming. Despite the President's interests, the rate decision itself is fully expected to end in no change. That puts the full interest on the updated forecasts of the SEP and any errant remarks Powell makes in his second to...
2‑Year Yield Above Fed Funds Signals No Rate Cuts
2-Year Treasury yield (blue line, market expectations of Fed policy) > Federal Funds Rate (red line, actual policy) suggests Fed is unlikely to cut. https://t.co/7odcQloUt0
Data Shows Firms Are Passing Through Price Increases, Defying Fed
Fed: "K-shaped economy, firms can't pass through price increases." Data: "Firms pass through price increases."
Trade Services Inflation Accelerating, Now Double Pre‑pandemic Pace
IDK if this is really much of a silver lining. On trend means that trade services are passing on costs at twice the pre-pandemic pace. That speaks to embedded inflation above target. https://t.co/IwClLNNndO
Wholesale Prices Surge 0.7% in February, Defying Trump's Denial
Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in February, much more than expected and up 3.4% annually @CNBC Trump will lie to the American public and insist that there is no inflation. https://t.co/VQeUb8bRtI
Feb PCE Firm Yet Slightly Weaker Than Expected
Even though PPI in February printed high, the components that filter into PCE (including downward revisions for December) came in a bit lower than the sharp-pencils anticipated. February PCE is still expected to be firm, but a touch less so...
Fed Should Stabilize Nominal Income Growth Amid Supply Shocks
Great quote that speaks to the Fed's challenging task of (1) looking through supply shocks while also (2) maintaining a robust nominal anchor. As folks like @IrvingSwisher and I have said for sometime, stabilizing the growth path of aggregate nominal...
Trump Tariffs Spike Diesel, Fertilizer Costs, Threaten Farm Voters
Trump’s tariffs and the US-Israeli war on Iran are sending fertilizer and diesel costs through the roof. Diesel is up ~$1/gallon in a week. Urea fertilizer has jumped from $470/ton to up to $585. This jump in cost spells trouble for Trump and...
Stocks Tumble as PPI Spikes Beyond Forecasts
JUST IN: Stocks drop as Wholesale Inflation (PPI) comes in higher than expected (+0.7% MoM vs +0.3% forecast)
Iran War Reshapes Fed Expectations and Monetary Policy Outlook
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
June Fed Cut Seen at 37% Probability Amid Powell’s Hold
Expectations are building for a rate cut There’s a 37% probability the June FOMC will cut 25bps Powell has been the last line holding rates as President Trump publicly pushed to lower June is also the first Fed meeting where Powell is not...
PPI Stays Elevated at 3.4% Amid Fed QE Shift
February’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. Over the past year, the PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 3.4%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/XFlfmOdN5q
Core Producer Prices Surge, Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely
US producer price inflation ex-food and energy came in at the fastest pace since January 2025 for the month of February, before the oil price shock. It's going to be very hard for this Fed to signal rate cuts ahead...
Inflation Surge Puts Fed Meeting at Crisis Crossroads
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
War‑driven Inflation Pushes Oil, Yields, Dollar Higher
Wars are inflationary - and rising oil, yields & dollar are the play. Not metals right now, as warned to clients. #Gold #Silver Wholesale inflation comes in hot for February with producer prices rising 3.4%, the biggest jump in a...
Rate Shifts Since Jan FOMC Concentrated at Front End
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM