“New Regime” Of Lower Jobless Claims Continues - a Good Sign (but for Geopolitical Idiocy)
Weekly jobless claims data showed initial filings unchanged at 213,000, while the four‑week moving average slipped to 215,750. Year‑over‑year, initial claims fell 4.9% and the moving‑average declined 4.7%, signaling a continued “new regime” of lower claims that has persisted for over eight months. Continuing claims rose modestly by 46,000 to 1.868 million, but the overall trend points to downward pressure on the unemployment rate, which analysts now project near 4.1‑4.2%. The author cautions that escalating geopolitical tensions with Iran could still derail this positive outlook.
AI Boosts Productivity, Surpassing Pre‑Pandemic Forecasts
Are we finally seeing AI in the productivity data? A big upward revision to earlier data and strong Q4 bring us 2.2% above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Annual rates: 1 year: 2.8% 2 years: 2.5% 6 years: 2.2%
Current Cycle Productivity Hits Long‑Term 2.2% Benchmark
"The 2.2-percent annualized rate of nonfarm business productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is higher than the 1.5-percent rate of the previous business cycle, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019, and...
What Makes America Strong?
In 2025 the United States recorded a negative net migration rate as legal immigration was sharply curtailed, a trend that economists warn will dampen economic growth. President Donald Trump has framed this demographic shift as part of a broader “Golden...
US Stocks Maintain Record 15-Year Outperformance Stretch
Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...
Iran Conflict Won’t Boost Dollar as Rate Gap Narrows
Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish....
Challenger Report: February Cuts Plunge, YTD Hiring Falls 56%
U.S. employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February, a 55% drop from January and 72% lower than February 2025. Year‑to‑date cuts total 156,742, the lowest Jan‑Feb figure since 2022 but still the fifth‑highest since 2009. While overall cuts fell, sectors...
Rising Oil Prices Force Fed to Pause, Trim 2026 Cuts
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
US Economy Gains Momentum Across Services, Manufacturing, Auto, Small‑Biz Hiring
Some recent data: * ISM services best since Aug '22 * ISM manufacturing >50 two months in row after years < 50 * Auto sales were better than expected * ADP best in 7 months and most of the jobs came from small...
Bond Traders See Increasing Chance Of No Fed Cuts This Year
Bond options traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. The probability of a no‑cut scenario rose to 25% by Wednesday, up from 17% before the Iran‑Israel conflict escalated. Higher oil prices from the Middle‑East...
Trump’s Policies Dent Approval, Economy Stays Resilient
President Trump’s disruptive policies have left some dents, including serious damage to his approval rating, but by the biggest readings of its health, the U.S. economy largely keeps absorbing what he throws at it. My latest column: https://t.co/7lpKP39teh
Health Insurance Spikes Stall Wage Growth Amid Inflation
Companies Report Raging Inflation, Except in Wages & Rents. Double-digit increases in employee health insurance costs hold down wage increases https://t.co/hhJssjhbRm https://t.co/MchphaLdWf
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
Mortgage rates slipped further in February, with the 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage averaging 6.05% and briefly dipping below the 6% mark, while the 15‑year rate fell to 5.43%. The 10‑year Treasury yield held near 4.18% for most of the month before...
Homebuilders Cut Starts, Offer Incentives Amid Low‑Ball Offers
Atlanta Fed Beige Book: “Homebuilders pulled back on housing starts and utilized incentives to shrink speculative inventory. Some builders reported home buyers shopping around for the best deals and often presented “low-ball” offers. This is especially true in the entry-level...
Why Your Income Isn’t Growing (Video)
The United States is experiencing a prolonged slowdown in real income growth, eroding the optimism that once characterized the post‑war era. Declining private investment rates are identified as the primary engine behind this stagnation, limiting productivity gains and wage increases....
Mortgage Rates Hover Near 5% as Jobs Data Looms
Mortgage rates have eased back toward the 5s today, potentially due to oil transport assurances from the President. The 30-year fixed is just 8 bps away from a 5-handle again, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Jobs report on Friday...
Missouri House Panel Advances Plan to Phase Out State’s Income Tax, But Hurdles Remain
Missouri’s House Commerce Committee advanced a constitutional amendment that would let voters approve a plan to phase out the state’s 4.7% individual income tax in favor of higher sales and use taxes. The proposal, championed by Gov. Mike Kehoe and...
Trump Officially Nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair as Iran War Complicates Path for Rate Cuts
President Donald Trump formally nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, aiming for quicker interest‑rate cuts. Warsh, known for advocating balance‑sheet reduction and lower rates, faces a skeptical FOMC amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli...
Mortgage Rates Nearing Sub‑6% Despite Week’s Volatility
Even with all the madness of this week #mortgagerates are almost back below 6% #realestate #housing #chartdaddy #mortgagespreads
US Activity Was Surging Ahead of Military Action
U.S. ISM surveys show the economy accelerating in early 2026, with the February services index climbing to 56.1 and overall business activity reaching 59.9, the strongest pace since May 2024. New orders and order backlogs also surged, supporting a projection...
Goldilocks Makes Surprise Cameo In US Services Sector
The Institute for Supply Management released a surprisingly strong services‑sector PMI on March 4, showing the index climb to 55.2, well above the 53.5 consensus. New orders surged 4.1% month‑over‑month and employment added roughly 150,000 jobs, underscoring robust demand. Analysts dubbed...
EPI’s Updated Family Budget Calculator Shows that Higher Minimum Wages Are Needed in States Like Oklahoma to Afford the Cost...
The Economic Policy Institute’s updated 2025 Family Budget Calculator reveals that the federal‑state minimum wage of $7.25 is far below the hourly earnings needed to cover basic expenses in every U.S. county, with Oklahoma exemplifying the shortfall. In Oklahoma’s cheapest...
US Economy's Quiet Bullish Turn Amid Bearish Sentiment
Everyone is getting increasingly bearish here, and while I understand the concern, the macro backdrop is improving a lot, especially in the US - that we can measure live with Nowcast IQ There is a very very underappreciated comeback in the...
Abercrombie & Fitch Forecasts Muted Annual Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Abercrombie & Fitch announced it will factor a 15 percent U.S. tariff into its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting net‑sales growth of 3‑5 percent and earnings per share between $10.20 and $11. The company estimates the tariff will shave about 70 basis points...
Sanders, Khanna Introduce Wealth Tax Bill Targeting Billionaires
Senators Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna introduced the Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act, proposing a 5 percent annual wealth tax on the 938 U.S. billionaires who hold $8.2 trillion collectively. The tax would raise about $4.4 trillion, funding $3,000 direct payments...
Fed Likely to Hold Rates, May Tighten if Inflation Persists
NEW: Beth Hammack of @ClevelandFed tells @nytimes that with inflation too high and rates at neutral, the Fed should be on hold for "quite some time." The next move may also not necessarily be down: "If we don’t see inflation...
Tech Leads Early; Jobs/Services Data Drives Volatility
March 4, 2026 📊 Insight: Jobs + services data = volatility window 8:15–10:00. Watching tech strength early with $NVDA/$MSTR bid. Services miss could pressure risk. $AVGO earnings tonight key for semis. Patience at the open — let data hit first. 0815 – ADP...
Indian Rupee Tumbles to a New Record Low Amid the US-Iran War. What's Next?
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as the US‑Iran conflict sparked safe‑haven buying of the dollar and pushed oil prices higher. Higher oil costs and the realization that U.S. rate cuts may be delayed have lifted inflation...
Delays in Tariff Refunds Cost Taxpayers $700 Million Monthly
"Tariff refund delays could cost U.S. taxpayers $700 million a month in interest, report finds" https://t.co/MHgXnrl4vk
Russia's GDP Shrinks, Inflation Claims Unmasked
It was actually contracting before, they just lied about the inflation numbers. But nice to see it's contracting so much that they can't cover it up anymore. 🔥🔥🔥
Trump’s Unaffordable Midterm Stimulus
The Congressional Budget Office released a stark outlook showing U.S. deficits expanding by nearly $1.5 trillion and the debt‑to‑GDP ratio surpassing 115 percent. President Donald Trump is proposing a fresh stimulus package—accelerated infrastructure grants, tax rebates, and expanded credit for small firms—designed...
Energy-Driven Inflation Drowns US‑Iran Conflict, Fed Cut Hopes Slump
One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
US Dollar Index Rises Above 99.00 as Middle East Tensions Drive Inflation Fears
The US Dollar Index surged past the 99‑point mark, trading around 99.20 for a third consecutive day, as investors reassessed Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations. The 10‑year Treasury yield steadied near 4.06%, reflecting higher real yields amid rising inflation concerns. Escalating...
U.S. Gasoline Demand Drops as Per‑Capita Use Plummets
U.S. Gasoline Demand Fell Further amid Long-Term Structural Shift: Plunging Per-Capita Consumption. Even as miles driven rose to a record. https://t.co/8h6llBxdie https://t.co/2aI68HuTGs
10-Year Yield Stagnates
10-year yield action this week 🥱 considering all that has happened, maybe jobs Friday changes that https://t.co/30TFujFiHs
IVOO: Multiplier Effects Gone In The AI-Age, Avoiding Cyclicals And Discretionary
The Vanguard S&P Mid‑Cap 400 ETF (IVOO) is heavily weighted toward cyclical sectors, with about 65% in discretionary, financials, industrials, materials and real estate. The analyst warns that uncertain U.S. consumer demand, rising unemployment and AI‑driven productivity gains could dampen...
US Services Surge to Highest ISM Since Oct 2024
US Service sector activity further accelerated in February according to the ISM data. The 56.1 reading was an unexpected improvement and highest since Oct 2024. The employment and price components also improved (higher and lower respectively). Good US economic update https://t.co/Pvofc3DgPk
Liquidity Buffers Intended for Crises Are Being Hoarded
Great point in @SecScottBessent speech: Post-2008 liquidity buffers were designed to be spent in a crisis. Instead, they are treated as untouchable minimums and so banks hoard liquid assets rather than deploy them, making stress worse. (1/3) @vtg2 @BrendanPedersen @amacker...
How Does the U.S. Tax System Stack Up?
The United States collects general‑government tax revenue equal to about 25.5% of GDP, roughly ten percentage points below the OECD average. Only two‑thirds of that revenue comes from the federal level, a share far lower than other industrial federations. Compliance...
Trump Trade War Slashes US Exports to China 19%
This is the big one, MUST READ Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown https://t.co/5eQUPlo1xx
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
Mortgage Demand Jumps 11% as Rates Near Four‑year Low
Weekly #Mortgage demand surged 11% higher last week, as rates sat near 4-year low https://t.co/2HClawHnMz @MBAMortgage
VC Index Drop Signals Broad Interest Rate Decline
The Venture Capital Index is now down more than 30% from its peak. This reinforces the idea that the entire interest rate curve may be headed materially lower, in my view. Yes — both short and long end of the curve. Also, separately: Just...
Fed Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Lasting Inflation Shock
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
PCE Offers a More Accurate, Comprehensive Inflation Gauge
PCE is a better measure of all spending and takes account of consumer substitution in their spending. CPI’s advantage is speed: they can tabulate it quicker because you only need to check the prices of a pre-determined basket of...
US Policy Uncertainty Likely Rising, Outpacing Dollar Index
All things considered, I would expect the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to be higher... Uncertainty index vs DXY on the weekly: https://t.co/sVGAiUIrV7
BofA Predicts Weak Feb Jobs, Fed Stays on Hold
BofA: We forecast a below-consensus Feb NFP print of 35k (private: 45k). The u-rate should remain at 4.3% Fed response: wait and watch stance under Powell https://t.co/qQ28IUZLsk
Kevin Warsh: The Radical Fed Chair Who Bridges Tech
Why I’m so bullish on the era of the Radical Fed Chairman: Most technicians aren’t technologists. But Kevin Warsh is both. 👇 https://t.co/90GCOPkuDW
Republicans Set to Embed Wall Street Crackdown in Housing Bill
Senate Republicans poised to ‘swallow’ Wall Street crackdown in housing bill via @Jasper_Goodman and @hapgoodreports https://t.co/F8TqWwkXCb