February Inflation Rose 0.3%, as Expected. Is This Our Last ‘Tame’ Reading for Awhile?
U.S. consumer price index (CPI‑U) rose 0.3% month‑over‑month in February, matching analysts' expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stayed above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, signaling persistent price pressures. The modest increase follows a series of tame readings, but economists warn it may be the last such pause before inflation accelerates. Market participants are closely watching the data for clues on the Fed's next policy move.
US Inflation Stable Ahead of Iran Shock
US consumer price index held steady in February at a 2.4% year‑over‑year increase, matching the previous month. The pause came just before the US‑Israel conflict in Iran sparked a sharp jump in oil prices, pushing gasoline above $3.50 per gallon....
Inflation on Target, Yet Fed Likely Remains Hawkish
Inflation data in the U.S. has been released. Everything came in line with expectations. Right now, the market is more concerned not with current inflation, but with the risk that it could start rising again in March amid a - likely...
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
Single-family housing permits slipped to 909,280 units in 2025, a 7.4% year‑over‑year decline, while multifamily permits rose to 516,886 units, up 5.6%. The downturn was most pronounced in the South and West, where single‑family activity fell 8.5% and 10.4% respectively,...
Core CPI Stays Modest, Hovering Around 2.5‑3%
A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core: 1 month: 2.6% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 2.3% 12 months: 2.5%
Cool Inflation Report Is Old News In Hot War
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported underlying price growth of 0.2% in February, a slight dip to 0.216% versus the whisper forecast. The figure aligned with most economists’ expectations, easing concerns about a resurgence of core inflation. Despite the...
Whack‑a‑Mole Inflation Hits Essentials,
The biggest problem for many Americans is that we have "whack-a-mole" inflation. Just as some items get back to more normal price points, other items start spiking. It's hard to budget and plan when you don't know what's spiking next. Look...
Real‑time Shelter Data Cuts Inflation Outlook to Under 2%
Update on our Alt Inflation Indicators: Real time shelter continues to run quite below official stats. We show more real time shelter running just +0.2% vs 3.0% in BLS stats. Subbing this alt shelter into CPI, we get headline inflation < 1.6%...
Since February, Rising Gas Prices Have Added to Inflation.
U.S. gasoline prices have surged 20% since the Feb. 28 strikes by the United States and Israel drove oil higher. The increase will not appear in the February CPI, which is released later this week, but it will feed into overall...
February Inflation Stagnates at 2.4% Amid Rising Costs
JUST IN: A cool February inflation reading. Inflation remained at 2.4% (y/y) in February, the same as January. This reading was before the war in Iran began, so gas prices were still below $3 average. -->Note that some items had larger...
CPI Data Set to Drive Volatile Opening, Semis Lead
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – March 11, 2026 🚨 Big macro morning with CPI inflation data at 8:30am, which could drive the tone for the entire session. Inflation numbers remain one of the market’s biggest catalysts right now, so expect volatility...
Trump’s Iran War Is Costing American Taxpayers $1 Billion a Day as the National Debt Spirals Out of Control
The Iran war, launched by the United States and Israel, is costing U.S. taxpayers roughly $800 million to $1 billion per day, far exceeding budgeted amounts. Analysts estimate that a two‑month conflict would add about $65 billion in direct war spending plus $1.4 billion...
Restaurant Prices Rise Faster Than Overall Inflation
Restaurant menu price inflation continues to run hotter than overall inflation. Today's reading shows FAFH CPI up 3.9% (!), with limited service prices up 3.2% and full service up 4.6%. The affordability crisis continues. https://t.co/c9SLvliOyk
Inflation Pops Up Unexpectedly Like Whack‑a‑Mole
Whack-a-mole inflation wasn't on my bingo card today, but it is what we are seeing.
Online Labor Demand Increased in February
The Conference Board‑Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index rose to 103.7 in February 2026, up 3.2% from January’s revised 100.5 reading. This marks a modest month‑over‑month gain after a 0.5% increase in December, but the index is still 9.3% lower than...
Goods Inflation 3% Above 30‑Year Average, Tariffs & AI Bottlenecks Driving Surge
Before adding in geopolitical inflation risk, goods inflation outside food and energy is already running about 3% faster than what prevailed for most of the last 3 decades Much of this is tariffs, but bottlenecks from the AI boom are also...
Options‑implied Fed Hike Odds Surge to 23%
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
US-China Trade Update: Imports, Exports, Fentanyl Flows, and Beyond
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a virtual briefing that delivered fresh 2025 trade‑flow data between the United States and China, alongside analysis of fentanyl shipments and export‑control policies. Experts Chad Bown, Marcus Noland, Mary Lovely and Martin Chorzempa...
ZIRP Turned Emergency QE Into Permanent Financialization Policy
Quantum leap forward in financialization with ZIRP, but original sin (to your handle) was the Maestro using monetary policy to make us richer than our economy could grow. The Rubicon on ZIRP policy was QE 2. That’s when emergency gov’t...
Benign CPI Masks Deeper Inflation, Limits Fed’s Options
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk
European asset managers recorded net inflows equal to 0.8% of assets in February, driven primarily by passive funds while active equity also posted modest gains. Citi analysts warn that escalating Middle East tensions could reverse the trend, prompting outflows in...
Fed Overstates Shelter Inflation's Impact on Target
The odd part is that Fed officials have made a big deal about the importance of falling shelter inflation apparently without remembering it has a smaller impact in their actual inflation target.
Oil Dip, Not Economy, Drives 10‑year Yield Drop
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG
When Fiscal and Monetary Policy Row Together–And Not
Christina Romer’s new paper reviews historic episodes where fiscal and monetary policy moved in tandem, showing that coordination only helps when both tools aim at the right goal. The Great Depression, 1970s stagflation, Volcker’s anti‑inflation campaign, and the 1990s deficit‑reduction...
Accurate Shelter Data Would Show sub‑1.5% CPI, Fed Celebrates
So if Shelter inflation was correctly reported we would have CPI BELOW 1.5% Congrats Fed you WON
Core CPI Hits 5‑Year Low, Yet 3‑Month Rate Rises
Two asterisks to what would normally be considered a fairly decent CPI report. First, obviously, this was before the economic fallout from the Iran war. Second, the very favorable data imputation in the October report (due to the govt shutdown) unwinds after...
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Outlook & Mortgage Impact Spring 2026
The Federal Reserve’s March 2026 policy meeting is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady, as inflation eases to 2.4% but still sits above the 2% target. Mortgage rates have settled around 6% following the Fed’s recent hold,...
CPI Matches Expectations, Inflation Remains Benign
Few #CPI takeaways: 1) Headline CPI +0.3% in line with exp; core +0.2% MoM also inline with exp. Unrounded core +0.216% 2) Pretty benign inflation read. Recall in recent years there's been some 1Q inflation accelerations; Jan renewed fears of such, but...
Utilities Soar, Gasoline Drops; CPI Modestly Up
Price changes over last year (February CPI report) Gas Utilities: +10.9% Fuel Oil: +6.2% Electricity: +4.8% Medical Care: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.9% Shelter: +3.0% Overall CPI: +2.4% Food at home: +2.4% Transportation: +2.2% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2% Gasoline: -5.6%
Does Inflation Hit Retirees Differently? What Physicians Need to Know
Physicians are being warned that inflation can erode retirees' purchasing power more sharply than for working‑age patients, especially when fixed incomes meet rising healthcare costs. The article outlines how price spikes in prescription drugs, long‑term care, and everyday expenses disproportionately...
Job Growth Holds Steady, More Sectors Accelerating
BofA: Average job growth to start the year remains consistent with 4Q levels despite a soft February. Notably, more sectors have accelerated than decelerated. https://t.co/PWt8NmBjL8
Skanda Skips CPI Spaces; Oil Dynamics Dominate Focus
Skanda can’t do CPI Spaces this morning — disappointed to miss it but probably not the most impactful report given the current oil dynamics.
10-Year Treasury Yield Trades Below Key Level After a Drop in Oil Prices Eased Inflation Fears
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged up to about 4.11% on Tuesday, remaining below the 200‑day moving average of 4.20%. The modest rise came as oil prices fluctuated around the $100 per barrel mark, tempering inflation concerns. Investors noted that the...
Manufacturing PMIs Validate EPS Breadth as Cycle Beta
This makes sense - manufacturing PMIs corroborate EPS breadth as it’s the beta of the business cycle. Thanks for bringing back the 📙! https://t.co/SrEetSesnP
US CPI Sparks Inflation Fears Amid Falling Oil Prices
Just when cooling oil prices promised a bit of relief to the market, the US CPI report threatens to revive inflation fears. #inflation #CPI #StockMarket #OilShock #crudeoil #macro #trading https://t.co/2xB2LsqJuF
How Labor Market Power Shapes the Impact of Monetary Policy
A new Federal Reserve paper shows that labor‑market power dramatically reshapes how monetary policy affects employment and wages. Firms with low monopsony power increase their wage bills about 50% more than high‑monopsony firms after a 25‑basis‑point rate cut. Oligopsonistic markets...
Single‑Family Home Supply Peaks, Demand Frozen; Condo Sales Crash
Supply of Single-Family Homes Surges to Highest for February in 9 Years, Demand Stuck in the Deepfreeze. Condo sales plunged to a record low shared with two other months https://t.co/U3vgbxThRe https://t.co/3Dk5D9QugD
Gas and Diesel Prices Surge 25‑40% Since January
Gasoline Prices Spike, Now up 25% since January, Diesel Prices 40%, Heating up Inflation. California is back over $5. Prices in Texas jumped by 25% month to month, to over $3.23. https://t.co/hv90K5cgPf https://t.co/NCe7JLzqmA
In US Housing, A Faint Pulse. But That’s It.
Existing home sales in the United States posted a modest 1.7% increase in February, marking the first uptick after a sharp decline the previous month. The rise caught many economists off‑guard, as most forecasts anticipated a continued slide. While the...
Housing Links Monetary Policy to Demand and Fertility
Ed Leamer famously argued “Housing is the Business Cycle”. This paper adds color to that claim by showing monetary policy ⇒ mortgage rates ⇒ house prices ⇒ home equity borrowing ⇒ aggregate demand. Housing also affects fertility, as @JesusFerna7026 noted...
High Oil Prices Slightly Lift Inflation, Minimal GDP Hit
‼️$100 oil prices have a surprisingly modest impact on the US economy: A persistent oil shock through 2027 would push headline inflation up +0.7 percentage points at peak, while core inflation and unemployment each rise just +0.1 percentage points. Real GDP effect...
Quiet Recession Ends; Early Movers Set for Growth
A lot of businesses quietly struggled the last few years. Valuations came down. Growth slowed. But few people wanted to call it what it was. A silent recession. GDP technically grew, but inflation grew faster. Now the cycle may be shifting. And the operators positioning today could...
Multiple Macro Threats Could Stall Rate Cuts, Spark Defaults
"Iran is only part of the story. There’s also the emergence of AI as a disruptive technology capable of suddenly wiping out, as well as creating, wealth for shareholders and creditors. There are the soured loans that are starting to...
Gas Hits $3.54, Adding $25 Monthly Tax
What a chart. Gas prices are now $3.54, up more than 55 cents since before the war in Iran began. This is the highest gas price ever under President Trump (including his first term). This is effectively a $25/mo. tax on most households....
Tillis Hopeful Fed Hurdles Cleared for Warsh Chair Nomination
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday he was hopeful that issues surrounding the Federal Reserve would be resolved, allowing Kevin Warsh’s nomination as central bank chair to move forward. https://t.co/7hUfth4Lf9
Key CPI, US Budget, and T‑Note Sale Drive Tomorrow
Not an overly active global macro calendar for tomorrow, but an important one. Top of the list is the February #CPI release. Will also watch that US monthly budget statement and 10-year t-note sale. Japan has some worthy data as well...
Millionaires Now Pay Lower Taxes than Average Earners
As of Monday, millionaires are officially paying less taxes than the rest of us. https://t.co/x9lEkEmUoR
Housing Stagflation Boosts Buyer Leverage Amid Seller Fatigue
The housing market is hitting stagflation. Jobs are cooling, but the unauthorized war in Iran is keeping oil prices and rates high. Sellers are losing patience and re-listings are at a decade high, giving buyers more leverage. https://t.co/tK43N2ajFT
Live US CPI Trade: NQ, Gold, Forex Opportunities
Trade US CPI LIVE tomorrow with Boris and Sam starting at 8AM ET / 12 GMT @fxflow They'll be hunting for opportunities in NQ, Gold and Forex https://t.co/9c2DFZTDGK
30-Year Mortgage Rates Drop 63 Bps, Spread Narrows
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.09% Same day last year: 6.72% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.12% Spread today: 197 bps