Macro Matters: Yield-Curve Scenarios with BNY’s Granet
In this episode, BNY Mellon CIO Jason Granet discusses the current and future shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, arguing that recent flattening is a temporary, cyclical retracement and that a steeper curve is likely to resume. He and Bloomberg Intelligence co‑hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman examine the broader economic backdrop, Federal Reserve policy stance, and funding market dynamics that drive yield‑curve movements. Granet explains BNY’s analytical framework for assessing macro outlooks and how the firm sizes risk in its fixed‑income portfolios. The conversation highlights the interplay between monetary policy expectations and market liquidity in shaping yield‑curve scenarios.
“How Energy Prices Figure Into the Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions”
The Federal Reserve’s rate‑setting calculus is increasingly tied to volatile energy prices, which have surged amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Market participants are using SOFR and Fed Funds futures to price the likelihood of upcoming policy moves, with recent...
Long‑term Unemployment Spikes Early, Now Cooling, No Recession Yet
Long-duration unemployment is one of the most cyclical and recession-sensitive labor indicators. Every recession produces a sharp surge in long-term unemployment: * 1954 recession: ~+550% spike * 1974–75 recession: ~+300% * 1982 recession: ~+100%+ * 2008–09 recession: ~+150% * 2020 COVID recession: ~+330% Historically, YoY long-term unemployment...
Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure
Core CPI remained mild in January‑February 2026, but the Fed‑preferred core PCE is projected to outpace it sharply. Economists expect core PCE to rise about 3.1% year‑over‑year, creating the widest CPI‑PCE gap in decades. The divergence stems from differing weightings,...
Stagflation Sojourn
U.S. equities posted their worst weekly decline in nearly a year as an energy‑driven stagflation scenario unfolded following a sharp spike in oil prices tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The article attributes the shock to escalating...
Market Wrap
The U.S. economy showed resilience in early 2026 despite a sharp drop in consumer confidence, which fell to 84.5 – the lowest since May 2014. Manufacturing activity rebounded, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbing to 52.6, the strongest pace in...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...
How AI Spending Is Impacting the U.S. Economy
AI-driven capital expenditures are currently contributing just over one percentage point to U.S. GDP growth, buoyed by a stock‑market rally that has turned consumption into a bubble‑like surge. Much of this spending is financed through vulnerable credit structures, raising concerns...
Fed Cuts Unlikely as Inflation Stays Above Target
At the start of the year, the market was pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts. Today: just one cut, and not until the September meeting. The reality is inflation never moved down to the Fed's 2% target and is now moving higher....
U.S. Trade Deficit Falls in January
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to $54.5 billion in January, a 25 percent drop from December. Exports rose 5.5 percent to $302.1 billion, driven by gold, computers and other precious metals, while imports slipped 0.7 percent to $356.6 billion. The narrowing gap appears amid a tariff...
The Relationship Among Oil Prices, Food Costs, and Consumer Inflation
U.S. military actions in the Middle East have driven Brent crude sharply higher, reviving scrutiny of oil’s influence on broader price levels. Historical FRED data reveal that oil price movements have consistently co‑moved with the Global Food Price Index and...
3 Consumer Staples Mutual Funds Amid Inflation, Global Turmoil
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, bringing the year‑over‑year CPI to 2.4% while core inflation held steady at 2.5%. Higher inflation typically pressures discretionary spending more than essential consumer staples, whose demand remains relatively inelastic. In this...
Initial Jobless Claims Hold Steady at 213,000
"In the week ending March 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 213,000 to 214,000."
US January Trade Balance -54.5B vs -66.6B Expected
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January, well below the $66.6 billion forecast and the revised $72.9 billion December figure. A surge in gold and other precious‑metal exports contributed roughly $9 billion of the improvement, while imports fell modestly. Capital‑goods exports,...
US Initial Claims 213K vs 215K Estimate
U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 213,000, modestly under the 215,000 forecast. The four‑week moving average slipped to 212,000, while continuing claims held steady at 1.85 million, matching expectations. Revised prior‑week figures show a small dip in both initial and...
Placer.ai Macroeconomic Indicators Analysis, February 2026 – Placer.ai Blog
Placer.ai’s February 2026 macro analysis shows a bifurcated U.S. consumer—price‑sensitive shoppers gravitate toward value retailers while still allocating funds for discretionary indulgences. Retail foot‑traffic remains broadly positive YoY despite weather‑driven dips, and e‑commerce fulfillment centers are logging high‑single‑digit visit growth fueled...
10% Oil Spike Adds 0.
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
Implications of the Trump Retirement Accounts Proposal
President Trump’s proposed Trump Retirement Accounts (TRA) would offer a federal match up to $1,000 per worker, aiming to extend retirement savings to the 63 million Americans without employer plans. RAND modeling shows the program is deficit‑neutral after 23‑31 years if account...
Grocery Prices Continue to Rise
Grocery prices are climbing faster than last year, according to recent CPI‑food‑at‑home data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a year‑over‑year increase of about 5% in the first quarter of 2024, outpacing the 2023 rate. The Economic Research Service’s forecast...
Inflation Unmoored in Late
This is the popular narrative but it's not correct. Inflation de-anchored in the late 1960s under pressure from Great Society & Vietnam spending and Martin acquiescing to LBJ's pressure. Inflation was kept artificially low in the early 1970s by wage...
US Job Data Overstated, Recent Revisions Cut 94k Jobs
⚠️US employment numbers have been grossly OVERSTATED: The US job market has seen revisions in ALL months of 2025 and 11 months of 2024. Over the last 3 months, US employment has been revised DOWNWARD by -94,000 jobs.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/february-us-jobs-report-was-a-disaster
Value Manager Smead: 'This Is One of the Most Overvalued Markets in U.S. History'
The episode examines the current overvaluation of the U.S. stock market, with value manager Bill Smead warning that metrics like the CAPE ratio and Buffett’s indicator place it in the 95th‑100th percentile of historical valuations. Smead explains his disciplined, low‑risk...
Presidents' Endless Pledge: Balancing the Budget, Year After Year
“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” - Jimmy Carter (1978) “For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” - Ronald Reagan (1981) “We must bring the Federal budget...
Iran War Inflation Drives Terminal Rate to 3.37%
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
Wednesday - March 11, 2026
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host Brian Seitel reviews the latest market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in Iran and rising energy prices, while noting that overall equity indices have been relatively flat. He breaks down the February...
Global Doubt Threatens US Debt Sustainability
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
US Inflation Far Exceeds 2% Myth; Fed Must Hold Rates
Consumer Prices in the US rose 4.4% per year over the last 5 years and over 24% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/yilrof4KhM
Peter Linneman On AI And Why The Economy Is Healthier Than It Appears
Peter Linneman told the University of Miami conference that recent data shows the U.S. economy is healthier than many fear, with modest job growth and 2.2% GDP expansion in 2025. He argued AI will boost productivity and generate new jobs...
Housing Starts Beat Forecast, Yet Momentum Questioned
Housing starts surprised to the upside in the latest report, rising to a 1.487 million SAAR and coming in above consensus expectations. On the surface, the headline suggests renewed momentum in residential construction. However... https://t.co/1r862BDOdv
US Food Inflation Accelerates Amid Mixed Category Trends
Food Inflation in America. Not good. Looking at major categories of foods. Some continued to spike (beef, coffee), others continued to plunge (eggs), others changed less. Overall food inflation accelerated on top of already very high prices https://t.co/taRrQJWe4I https://t.co/IdfYxkT1G2
Market Update: TPR, EQR, CBOE
U.S. headline CPI held steady at 2.4% year‑over‑year in February, matching January, while core CPI remained at 2.5%. The data largely met expectations, leaving inflation pressure unchanged. Equities were mixed to lower at midday, with financial services and real estate...
Money Supply Drives Inflation, Though Lags Vary
My take on the MONEY SUPPLY: "The money supply is always the cause of inflation. There are long and variable lags between changes in the money supply and changes in inflation." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney...
Cleveland Fed Sees 2.87% CPI, 60th Month Above Target
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 2.87% CPI inflation rate for March, up from 2.4% in February. That will be the 60th consecutive month (5 straight years) with inflation above the Fed's 2% target. There's no way Powell cuts...
Iran Conflict Stalls Big Purchases Like Homes and Cars For 1 in 4 Americans; Most Are Undeterred
A Redfin‑commissioned survey finds 25% of Americans are delaying or canceling major purchases such as homes or cars because of the military conflict with Iran, while 56% say the war has no impact on their buying plans. The conflict’s effect...
Rising Yields Signal Dollar Surge, Growth De‑Risking Continues
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
Full Employment Requires Taming Inflation, Not Rate Cuts
My full write up on inflation. Important to remember that we can not sustain or obtain full employment unless inflation is detailed. For those arguing the #FOMC should cut to shore up employment and ease inequality. Cuts in late 2024...
Federal Science Cuts May Have Ripple Effect on Universities
The 2025 Canadian federal budget mandates a 15% operating‑cost reduction for most departments by 2030, while research granting agencies see only a 2% cut. Cuts target Innovation, Science and Economic Development, Fisheries and Oceans, Environment and Climate Change, among others,...
Core PCE Outpaces CPI Due to Weighting Differences
We still need Feb PPI , but Feb core PCE looks much stronger than Feb core CPI. On Friday, Jan core PCE will also be stronger than Jan core CPI. This is not shelter. Instead, it reflects the differences in...
CPI Understates Inflation; Core Services Surge, Fed Faces More Pressure
More to come but things to keep in mind… CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector...
Official Inflation Rates Hide Everyday Price Surge
Everything is high as hell. Inflation is screaming “make it enough”.. The CPI report — “it’s not that high” Reality — lady goes into CVS and buys: shampoo and conditioner, six pack of toilet paper, and a birthday card. 4...
Bond Market Predicts Near‑Zero Chance of Fed Cut
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
Expect 4.8
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
US Federal Deficit Hits $1 Trillion in First Five Months
In the first 5 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.1 trillion and spent $3.1 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/nGKPLUJ4vh
Core PCE May Hit 3.4% YoY by Q2
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We think core #PCE could climb to 3.4% y/y by Q2, a striking implication of the hot PCE-relevant components that complicates the Fed’s policy path. We see upside risk to this estimate if the oil-price shock persists.”...
CPI Climbs on Food, Energy; OER Masks True Inflation
CPI Inflation Rose on Food & Energy Prices, even before Gasoline Price Spike. YoY still Pushed Down by Bad-Joke OER. The Bad-Joke of Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER) explained https://t.co/Drnu0dnRE2 https://t.co/nyv8tW3qx5
Market Stays Resilient Despite Decade‑Long S&P Drawdowns
S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns this decade: 2020 -33.9% 2021 -5.2% 2022 -25.4% 2023 -10.3% 2024 -8.5% 2025 -18.9% 2026 -3.4% (so far) Why isn't the market falling more? Why are investors ignoring the headlines? Are we due for a correction? https://t.co/4VHwh9ODKB https://t.co/jZPvMOVHiI
U.S. Wireless Prices Halt Decline, Remain Flat
It looks like prices for U.S. wireless service have stopped falling in recent weeks, according to the Consumer Price Index. Prices fell 3.3% in December, 0.3% in January and 0.0% in February. https://t.co/jLkjJC61OX
Core Inflation Remains Steady Over Past Three Years
Here's monthly seasonally adjusted core. It's been pretty stable for the last three years (perhaps not at the level you'd prefer.) https://t.co/1r4VLXWf1S
Fed Rate Path Repriced: Terminal Rate 3
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
CPI Meets Forecasts, Rate‑Cut Outlook Hits Low
Both US headline and core #CPI for February were both in-line with expectations and previous: 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. Nevertheless, expectations for FOMC rate cuts through this year are the lowest since May 2nd (-30bps). That won't make Trump happy... https://t.co/9kJhHgDilS