Private Canaries
A new University of Chicago paper shows that private‑sector data—ADP payroll figures, Vanguard income and hiring metrics, and JPMorgan Chase checking‑account transactions—can reliably forecast the first and third releases of the BLS non‑farm payrolls and core CPI. The study argues that these real‑time signals could have justified an earlier 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut in the summer of 2025. Declining response rates to traditional surveys and disruptions like the pandemic and a 2025 shutdown have heightened interest in such alternative data. The findings suggest a complementary role for private data in U.S. monetary policy making.
US February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 98.8 vs 99.6 Expected
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.8 in February, missing the 99.6 consensus. Despite the dip, the reading stays above the 52‑year historical average of 98. NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg noted higher sales and profits but warned...
Private Sector Pay Rises Climb to 3.4 Percent as Cost of Living Pressure Persists
Private‑sector median pay awards rose to 3.4% in the three months to January 2026, up from 3.0% previously. One‑fifth of private settlements now exceed 4%, indicating growing pressure to offset lingering cost‑of‑living stresses despite easing inflation. Manufacturing saw its median...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 6, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the board for the week ending March 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate rose 0.13 percentage points, while the 10‑year advanced 0.18 points to 4.15 %. The 3‑year note settled at 3.59 %, reflecting broader upward pressure on government debt yields....
Booker Proposes Bigger Deductions, Child Credits Funded by Corporate Taxes
Senator Cory Booker just proposed a major tax bill: - increase the standard deduction to $75,000 (married) or $37,500 (single) - child tax credit increase to $3,600 per child (age 6 to 17) with an additional $2,400 “baby bonus” This would be paid...
CPI Inflation Flat in February, Near 5‑Year Low
Wall Street has inflation as measured by the CPI running sideways in February and holding near the lowest 12-month rates in five years* *at least until April, when the data collection/imputation distortions from the Oct govt shutdown could fully unwind...
What I Got Wrong About the Post-Global Financial Crisis Recovery ❤️🩹
On March 9 2009 the S&P 500 closed at a historic low of 676, marking the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis market decline. The National Bureau of Economic Research later confirmed the recession officially ended in June 2009, but did not announce this...
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 28% After Iran Tensions
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
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Workers Hold on Tight to Jobs as Hiring Slows and Layoffs Rise
The New York Federal Reserve’s February consumer survey shows the expected quit rate fell to 15.9%, the lowest in more than a decade, as employers shed 92,000 jobs. Hiring slowed dramatically, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting a 3.3%...
How $4/Gallon Gas Could Take the Economy From a Nearly Complete Stall Into Outright Recession
Gas prices hovering just above $3 per gallon have acted as a modest tailwind for U.S. consumers, but a rise to $4 per gallon would erase that benefit and return to a neutral stance relative to wages. The economy is...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates Poised For Volatility As Iran Conflict Escalates and Inflation Data Looms
Redfin economists warn that mortgage rates could remain volatile as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives oil prices toward levels last seen during the Ukraine war and fresh inflation data arrives. February core CPI is projected to rise 0.2% month‑over‑month, while the...
REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE ARE VASTLY EXAGGERATED
Kevin Muir argues that claims of the business cycle’s demise are overstated, noting that cyclical patterns still shape macroeconomic outcomes. He points to a recent tipping point where labor market slack is eroding, causing unemployment to rise faster than expected....
Recession Odds Jump on Kalshi After Oil Tops $100
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi saw recession odds climb above 34% on Monday, the highest level since November, after U.S. crude oil breached the $100 per barrel threshold. The surge in oil prices follows recent Middle‑Eastern output cuts and the closure of...
Construction Loses 11,000 Jobs in February
The construction sector shed 11,000 jobs in February, according to ABC’s analysis of BLS data. Despite the monthly decline, employment is up 42,000 jobs year‑over‑year, a modest 0.5% gain. Nonresidential construction fell 3,800 positions, driven by a 6,500‑job loss in...
February 2026 Shows Biggest Post‑Pandemic Job Losses
The Worst Jobs Report Since the Pandemic Raises New Labor Market Fears The February 2026 jobs report shows a loss of 92,000 jobs—the worst since the pandemic—and the weakness runs deeper than one strike or a temporary shutdown. Job losses...
2026 Budget Cuts Growing Unlikely, Odds Triple
The odds of no cut in 2026 jumped from 5% to 17%. The White House wants many cuts, but the truth is that is getting harder. Only one cut is priced in today. Two weeks ago it was about a...
Can the US Afford Trump’s Iran War?
President Donald Trump has launched a direct military campaign against Iran despite a domestic economy plagued by rising unemployment and stubborn inflation. The article argues that the conflict will further erode public finances, adding new pressure on the federal budget....
Rising Oil Prices Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Stagnant Jobs and Oil Spike Signal Recession, Defense Favored
Recent employment trends combined with the oil price spike suggest recession risk is rising, and this was not on the market's bingo card this year... Though February job losses were skewed by one-time effects, the weakness is nonetheless part of...
Mortgage and Refinance Interest Rates Today, March 9, 2026: Moving Higher with Bond Market Anxiety
Mortgage rates rose on March 9, with the average 30‑year fixed climbing to 5.98% and the 15‑year fixed to 5.50%, driven by bond market anxiety from Middle East tensions and a weak jobs report. Refinance rates are higher, with the 30‑year...
Labor Market Risk Outweighs Inflation Concerns This Cycle
There is a lot of chat about whether this will be "as bad" as 2022. From inflationary pov, unlikely. And CBs shouldn't be too worried about wage-price spirals, despite the endless overshoot. But my worry is that it tips labour...
Stagflation Becomes Default Scenario Amid Cooling Economy
CPI and PCE both drop this week with oil above $100 and payrolls negative. If inflation runs hot, the Fed can't cut. If it cools, the economy is already cracking. Stagflation isn't a risk. It's the base case. https://t.co/L3cc4tvY1T
US Gold Revaluation Could Wipe Out 70% of Budget Deficit Amid West Asia Conflict
A new SBI Research report suggests that revaluing the United States’ gold reserves at current market prices could eliminate roughly 70% of the federal budget deficit. The reserves are still recorded at 1973 valuation levels, creating a massive accounting gap....
10‑Year Yield Surges, Treasuries Lose
10-year yield at 4.15%. Up 18 bps in a week. Bonds selling off into a growth scare. That's not supposed to happen. When Treasuries stop being a safe haven, the playbook is broken. https://t.co/yIChc2y0aR
Yield Curve Decoupled, Then Flattened After 10‑year Spike
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Edged Up Again in February
The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index edged higher in February, reaching 105.37 from 105.18 in January. The modest rise was driven mainly by a drop in involuntary part‑time work and a slight improvement in firms’ ability to fill vacancies. However,...
Quit Intentions Hit Lowest Point Since Survey Start
The % of workers who plan to quit their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the NY Fed's survey. People who have a job are not giving them up right now https://t.co/p7kO4PdQ2A
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 40% Amid Oil Surge
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026
Polymarket’s recession contract defines a U.S. recession as an NBER declaration for any quarter in 2025 or 2026, issued before the BEA releases its Q4 2026 advance estimate. Because the NBER typically confirms recessions with a lag, the contract’s definition lowers...
Taxing Stock Returns Could End Corporate Tax Avoidance
It's actually easy to design mechanisms for killing corporate tax avoidance schemes, if anyone actually cared. Just tax stock returns https://t.co/mpVe5FLf7C
U.S. Pays More for Oil Despite Domestic Production
U.S. consumers are hit harder by rising oil prices than Europeans because we use more oil. The fact we produce it here doesn't help consumers, unless we tax the oil industry https://t.co/DZQmvyBSMk
Market Expectations of Inflation
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
US Energy Exporter Still Vulnerable to Oil Price Swings
Post-pandemic, American consumer (homeowner) debt was locked in cheap for ever and it made the Fed’s job more difficult. Raising rates didn’t impact spending as much. But we drive big cars long distances so oil spikes impact our spend...
Tariffs Linked to 240k Job Losses in Manufacturing and Transport
"Tariffs may have affected manufacturing employment, which declined by 119,000 in 2025. Likewise, the trade sensitive transportation and warehousing sector declined by 123,800." https://t.co/ed9bs6nNSn
Iran Conflict Disrupts Fed’s Economic Forecast Again
The war in Iran is scrambling the economic outlook for the Federal Reserve — again. https://t.co/TGmVeLOISN
Prolonged Hikes Risk Pushing Economy Into Recession
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
Central Banks Miss Inflation Targets Five Years, War Delays Cuts
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
Oil Spikes Signal Cycle End: Income Squeeze, Fed Reaction?
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Inflation, Debt, War Clash with Trump's Promises
This is inflation, unfunded spending and war. The exact opposite of what Trump has campaigned on.
Native‑born Job Gains Minimal Amid Massive Overall Growth
we're up just 150k for native-born workers over the last year https://t.co/eUQjDMCvxT The growth in employment was 1.5 million 2024 to 2025, but we know Trumpers are scared of numbers
Oil Surges Past $100, Inflation Data Gains Weight
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
Rising Energy Prices Lock in Inflation, Halt Rate Cuts
With this move in energy and commodities prices, inflation will have a 5-handle in no time. And with that, rate cuts will be firmly off the table this year. Due to the upcoming pain for the U.S consumer, I believe we'll...
Three Data Points Will Confirm or Kill Stagflation Narrative
🚨 THREE PRINTS. ONE VERDICT. This week's economic calendar isn't routine. Wednesday CPI, Friday GDP revision + Core PCE, and Friday Michigan Sentiment all land before the March 18 FOMC meeting. Together, they'll either confirm or bury the stagflation story that's been...
Gas Prices Jump 15%, Boost March CPI by 0.45%
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
Small Caps Tumble over 3% Amid Inflation Fears
Small caps down more than 3% because 1.) Inflation is a much bigger worry than a week ago and no cuts are coming? 2.) Sell the winners? 3.) Lucy https://t.co/3gsriv02Qd
Trump Tariffs Stalled Job Growth, Raising Business Costs
"Job growth notably stalled after President Trump began his tariff barrage last April, which created economic uncertainty and raised business costs." https://t.co/jaNVkXohlg
U.S. Energy Shift Buffers Oil Shock From Recession
Why the oil shock won't cause stagflation or recession: #1 U.S. less energy intensive than in past price spikes. Gasoline consumption lower today in in 2007. #2. U.S. net petroleum exporter. Therefore mildly positive for terms of trade. (link to...
Oil Shocks Affect Prices, Not Sustained Inflation
The Financial Times warns that rising oil prices threaten to fuel inflation. WRONG. Oil shocks change RELATIVE prices, but DO NOT cause SUSTAINED inflation. INFLATION IS ALWAYS & EVERYWHERE A MONETARY PHENOMENON. https://t.co/zvENzIWzCy
Oil Price Spike Adds 10bp Inflation, Cuts Growth
JPM: "If the oil supply shock is sustained, we think each 10% increase in oil prices should translate to a ~10bp gain in headline PCE inflation and a 15-20bp drag on GDP growth."
Post‑Liberation Promises Mask a Looming Jobs Recession
"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards... I'm going to call that a jobs recession." https://t.co/GZQfUVRfWG