The Daily Feather — Shockers
The Daily Feather’s new post spotlights the oddball nicknames of U.S. colleges, zeroing in on Wichita State University’s “Shockers.” It traces the Shockers moniker to early 20th‑century wheat‑harvesting students who earned a reputation for “shocking” the grain. The article pairs this cultural vignette with a series of economic indicator charts spanning 2006‑2026, underscoring the contrast between campus lore and macro trends. Ultimately, it argues that such distinctive mascots shape institutional identity and marketing potential.
Traders Bet Fed Dovish; Stocks Rise, Dollar Falls
🚨 TRADERS JUST TIPPED THEIR HAND BEFORE FED The market is already telling us what to expect from the Fed - and smart traders are paying attention. Stocks are rallying and the dollar is pulling back ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. That's...
Full Rate Cut Postponed Until March 2027.
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Rates Will Jump Around As Markets Weigh Iran War and Fed Outlook
Redfin economists expect mortgage rates to keep oscillating as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushes energy prices higher and markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s second‑to‑last FOMC meeting this week. Mortgage rates have climbed from roughly 6.0% to 6.36%, while the ten‑year...
Fed Hikes Driven by Macro Policy, Not Oil Spikes
In the two oil shocks of the 70's the Fed tightened due to the broad inflationary impact of leaving the gold standard and Bretton woods. Oil was a symptom not a cause of inflation In 90 the Fed paused cuts...
Trade FOMC: Align Timing, Levels, and Liquidity
FOMC is the biggest event this week. Interest rate decisions and Fed commentary can shift market direction, volatility, and momentum across Nasdaq and gold. Price often reacts aggressively around these releases, especially near key supply and demand levels. If you’re trading this week,...
Rates Spark: The Impact Is No Longer Transitory
The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is projected to climb into a 4.25‑4.5% band before easing back toward 4%, driven by higher nominal and real yields after the war’s shock. Even as the conflict winds down, inflation expectations remain structurally elevated,...
Fed Faces Tension Over Near‑Term Rate Cut Projections
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Banks Hoard Liquidity yet Shun Discount Window in Crises
The growing calls for Discount Window reform are being driven, in part, by a paradox in the post-GFC liquidity framework: banks are encouraged to hoard liquidity in normal times but hesitate to use it during stress. Details in my latest...
US Industrial Production Rises For 4th Straight Month In February (0.2% MoM, 1.4% YoY)
U.S. industrial production posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain in February, rising 0.2% month‑over‑month and 1.44% year‑over‑year, outpacing the 0.1% consensus. Manufacturing output mirrored the broader trend, also expanding 0.2% MoM, with durable goods edging up 0.1% and nondurables up...
Fed Shouldn't React to Oil Supply Shocks
Should the Fed hike due to a supply shock in oil? No. Should the Fed cut due to oil supply shock causing weaker real growth. Also no. Get a grip pundits.
US Diesel Prices Surge Past $5, Fueling Freight Inflation
CHART OF THE DAY: US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever. That’s freight inflation — and another big hit to the country’s farming economy (and it has received many hit since...
Stagnant Job Turnover Shows Employers, Workers Cautious Amid Uncertainty
The January 2026 JOLTS report shows labor turnover stalled despite job openings rising to 6.9 million. Total hires held steady at 5.3 million and quits slipped to 3.1 million, while layoffs edged down, reinforcing a “no‑hire, no‑fire” environment. This follows a 2025 slowdown...
Rising Income, Oil, Deficits Make Rate Cuts Tough
Disposable personal income is rising. Oil price is rising. Budget deficits are rising. Going to be very hard to cut rates
War‑driven Inflation Fuels Liquidity‑to‑solvency Crises
For those bullish wars, don't forget: WARS ARE INFLATIONARY which can accelerate economic deterioration that is already in motion. Now pit INFLATION against this backdrop: liquidity versus solvency.👇 Liquidity crisis can quickly turn to solvency crisis. Fed can step in during liquidity episodes, Fed...
US February Industrial Production vs +0.2% Expected
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in February, edging past the 0.1% forecast and following a robust 0.7% gain in January. Capacity utilization held at 76.3%, still well below its long‑run average, signaling lingering slack in the sector. Manufacturing output matched...
Fed's Treasury Holdings Surge, Echoing Past Funding Crises
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
Three S&P 500 Headwinds, One Overlooked Indicator Each
The S&P 500 has 3 headwinds right now. Most investors are only watching one. Here's what all 3 are, and the single indicator for each that tells you if it's getting better or worse 🧵
The Health Care Job Market
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total non‑farm payrolls fell by 92,000 jobs in February, with health‑care employment shrinking by 28,000 jobs after a wave of worker strikes. Despite the dip, the health‑care sector has added an average of...
U.S. Faces $1 Trillion Deficit Early in FY
The U.S. federal government has collected $2.1T in revenue so far this fiscal year. But spending has already reached $3.1T. That leaves a $1.0T deficit. We aren't even through Q1 yet.
SPY Preps for Inflation Data and Fed Decision
$SPY levels going into the week. On the agenda: - CPI & PPI Inflation Data (Wed) - FOMC / Interest Rate Decision (Wed) - Fed Press Conference (Wed)
March Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Index -0.20 versus 3.90 Estimate
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey slipped to a -0.20 index in March, well below the 3.90 estimate. New orders edged higher while shipments plunged, creating a mixed demand picture. Delivery times stretched and supply availability weakened, yet employment rose modestly...
Higher Rates, Free Market, Not Fed Cuts, Win
There's going to be a lot of people complaining this week when the Fed doesn't cut rates. Let them. It's the right decision. In fact, interest rates should be much higher than where they are today. The free market should...
Iran Conflict Deepens Fed Rate Split, Fuels Inflation Worries
Fed officials were already before divided the Iran war over what to do about rates. Now the conflict threatens to entrench those positions and make it even harder to reach a consensus "Both sides are going to be able to say...
The Sacrifice Ratio Puzzle
Inflation surged to 9.1% in mid‑2022 due to pandemic disruptions and the Russia‑Ukraine war, then fell sharply in 2023 despite unemployment staying low. The traditional sacrifice ratio—unemployment needed to cut inflation—proved near zero, challenging Phillips‑curve expectations. Tariff hikes in 2025‑26...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation, Keeps Fed From Cutting
The US-Iran conflict pushed oil past $100 a barrel. This is going to keep inflation elevated. Elevated inflation stops the Fed from cutting, which isn’t good for risk assets. I don’t see a super cycle this year only lower lows as stated many...
Fed Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged at Upcoming Meeting
99% probability the Fed holds rates steady at the next FOMC meeting in 2 days https://t.co/McZZLqnIC5
PS Quarterly Interview: Desmond Lachman
In a recent Project Syndicate interview, economist Desmond Lachman warns that President Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy could revive bond‑market vigilantes and destabilize the U.S. Treasury market. He argues that such stress may puncture the soaring AI‑related equity rally and...
US Growth Slows to Third‑Slowest in 14 Years
Last year, the US economy grew at its third-slowest rate in the last 14 years. https://t.co/RDFeuSRfcT
Fed and FDIC to Vote on Trump-Era Basel Proposal Thursday
ICYMI: The Trump-era Basel bank capital proposal is coming Thursday, and the Fed and FDIC are having open board meetings at the same time to vote on it https://t.co/u34TWtDk8w https://t.co/TlK4sinLwp
It Was Unthinkable a Couple of Weeks Ago, but Could the Next Move by the Fed Be a Rate Hike?
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting may break the recent easing trend as traders assign a roughly 25% probability to a rate hike, driven by a sharp oil‑price surge linked to the Iran conflict. Chief economist Carl Weinberg warns that...
Energy Price Surge Threatens to Reverse US Inflation Decline
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices have been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis......
35% Hike Odds in ’26, Certain November Rate Cuts
A 35% chance of a hike in '26 currently. 100% chance of three cuts back in November. Great chart from @sonusvarghese https://t.co/oAFz8G2I7j
Instantaneous PCE Inflation with Nowcasts/Tracking
Goldman Sachs’ tracking model nudged its February core PCE inflation nowcast higher, while the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast suggests lower instantaneous inflation for February and March. The two estimates diverge because Goldman Sachs blends judgmental inputs with data, whereas the...
Fed Must Erase 12% Excess Inflation Before Rate Cuts
The Fed should not even think about cutting rates again until the 12% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having an inflation target if you're not going to adhere...
Markets Stay Calm on 5-Year Inflation Outlook
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
Battle-Weary Fed Confronts Another Supply Shock
The Federal Reserve is confronting a new supply‑side shock that threatens to revive inflationary pressures as geopolitical tensions persist. Central banks are diverging, with Australia likely to raise rates again while Europe and the UK pause policy tightening. This split...
Warsh Delay Helps Him, Harms Powell Amid Oil Shock
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer...
Manufacturing Slows, Housing Index Slightly Rises
Economic Calendar for Mon. Mar. 16 8:30am - NY Fed manufacturing index for March: Expected 3.9; Prior 7.1 10:00 - NAHB housing market index for March: Expected 37; Prior 36
Red Vs. Blue States' Income Tax Gap Widening
MyPoV: Numbers don’t lie. Red and Blue States Are Growing Further Apart on Income Tax https://t.co/QjUnqWilgL
Central Banks Pause Rates Amid Oil, Middle East Risks
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
Living Costs Outpace Income Growth by Decades
Median family income in the US increased from $10,000 in 1971 to $106,000 today, only a 10x increase. However, the median cost of homes increased from $25,000 to $445,000, a 17x increase. And the median cost of cars increased from $3,600 to...
Alternative Fed Tightening Tools, Not Rate Hikes, Curb Inflation
FWIW while many are suggesting Fed Rate Hikes and markets are beginning to price that as well. We much prefer 1. Ending RMO 2. Addressing the uneven distribution of reserves by establishing a minimum reserve requirement to protect the high...
Central Banks Delay Hikes in Supply Shocks, Await Wage Inflation
The supply shock move in Energy prices, fertilizer prices, and food prices IS a Rate hike which slows the economy and is disinflationary to goods and services that are not energy and food. A dual mandate central bank doesn't hike...
Promises of 5% Growth Ignore Looming Debt Reality
January 2025: "Don't worry about the $2 trillion deficit and the rising national debt. We are going to grow our way out of it with 5% Real GDP." Today: "Wait till next year." https://t.co/D1ZtfYxn0r
Government Claims 20% Health Insurance Cost Drop—Absurd
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 20% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/Iw2M0izZim
Goldman Sees 25% US Recession Risk as Oil Hits $100
Goldman just raised US recession probability to 25%. Oxford Economics says $140 oil triggers recession in the eurozone, UK, and Japan. Brent is at $100 and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. https://t.co/7yjIA43hkG
Regional Housing Markets Shape Inflation Perceptions
I’m convinced that a lot of people’s views on inflation right now are driven by whether they live in the Sun Belt (experiencing housing deflation/disinflation) or NY/SF.
Stocks Typically Bottom Five Months Before GDP Rebounds
As recession fears mount, remember that stocks bottom ~5 months before GDP inflects. JPMAM https://t.co/R8swcw5iFp
Why a Fed Rate Cut Now Signals Trouble
My week ahead article: It Would Probably Be a Bad Sign if the Fed Cut Now – Here’s Why https://t.co/iRgDsoYaOg https://t.co/HWPl79e8Ez