University of Michigan Sentiment (Preliminary) for March 55.5 versus 55.0 Estimate
The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index slipped to 55.5 in March, missing the 55.0 forecast and marking the year’s lowest reading. Current‑conditions sentiment rose to 57.8, while expectations fell to 54.1, the weakest since last November. Year‑ahead inflation expectations stalled at 3.4%, ending a six‑month decline, and five‑year expectations edged down to 3.2%. The dip was amplified by rising gasoline prices and mixed interview results surrounding the U.S. military action in Iran.
GDP Downgrade Puts Fed in a Bind as Inflation Stays Elevated
The Commerce Department revised fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP down to a 0.7% annualized gain, half the initial estimate and far below the 1.4% growth economists expected for the year. The downgrade reflects weaker consumer and government spending, softer exports, and a...
Week 12 VIX Peaks as Central Banks Hold Rates
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
US Economy Gets Sharp Downgrade In Stagflationary GDP Update
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2024 GDP growth to roughly 0.5% annualized, half of the initially reported rate. The slowdown coincides with persistently high inflation, reinforcing concerns of a stagflationary environment. Business leaders across diverse sectors report...
Disposable Income Surges, Outpacing Spending and Boosting Savings
Notable: Disposable income (blue bar) surged in January. That was the first time in months that income growth was higher than spending growth (orange bar) Savings also ticked up (black line). I'm not sure what drove that jump in income. Minimum wage...
Core PCE Hits 22‑month High, Fueling Fed Hike Odds
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 3.1% in January, the highest level in 22 months. That was the 59th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut next...
Custom Home Building Expanded in 2025
Despite a 6% decline in overall single‑family housing starts in 2025, custom home building posted growth. NAHB data show 186,000 custom starts for the year, a 3% increase over 2024, even though fourth‑quarter starts slipped 4% year‑over‑year. Custom homes now...
Core P
Just In: PCE Inflation was 2.8% in January, a bit below expectations. But Core PCE Inflation was 3.1%, the highest since March 2024. **PCE Inflation could easily hit 4% this spring due to the war in Iran** It's notable that PCE...
Daily Spotlight: Can GDP's Engine Run on $4 Gas?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second estimate for fourth‑quarter GDP today, following an advance reading of 1.4% annualized growth, down from 4.4% in the prior quarter. Analysts will focus on the resilience of consumer spending and business...
Get Ready for US PCE Data in 3 Steps
US PCE Data is set to release today. Lets prepare for it in 3 simple steps using @mrkt_ai terminal. Comment "playbook" & i will dm you the MRKT access link
Inflation Holds Steady but Economic Pressures Persist as Americans Question Real Income Growth
U.S. inflation has plateaued, with the consumer price index rising about 3.2% year‑over‑year in March, down from the double‑digit peaks of 2022. Core price pressures, however, stay above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, keeping monetary policy on hold. Meanwhile, wage...
Burry Warns U.S. Markets Facing Unsalvageable Collapse
Michael Burry, an investor known for his book *The Big Short*, warned that the U.S. financial markets and economy are about to collapse. "The problem is too big to be salvaged."
Stocks at 3-Month Lows Awaiting PCE, Job Openings
The Schwab Market Update highlighted that U.S. equities slipped to three‑month lows ahead of key economic data, notably the January PCE price index and the JOLTS report, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s upcoming meeting. Rising crude oil prices,...
Record Broad Money Growth Threatens Purchasing Power
⚠️Broad money supply in developed countries is surging: Broad money across advanced economies rose to a record $74.1 trillion in 2025. This comes after a massive +25% surge during 2020–2022 before growth eased back to trend. It has risen over $50 trillion since...
Trump's Factory Bragging Clashes with Plummeting Construction Data
With Trump boasting about new factories everywhere, he would feel really stupid if he ever saw the data showing factory construction plummeting https://t.co/1T5VGrJqyn
Fed Reveals Plan to Ease Banks’ Capital Requirements, Boost Mortgage Lending
The Federal Reserve announced it will overhaul capital rules for large banks, moving to a single standardized risk‑based framework that explicitly accounts for loan‑to‑value ratios. Under the proposal, lower‑LTV mortgages would carry lighter capital charges, while high‑LTV loans face higher...
BEA Methodology Trimmed Core PCE, Still 0.4%
It missed b/c of a methodological change that the BEA introduced today that cut the core PCE by about a tenth relative to expectations. And even then, it still rounded to 0.4%.
Rising Fuel Costs and Wage Disinflation Curb Spending, GDP 0
Big pop in pump prices will drag on discretionary spending when wages succumbing to disinflation. And consider starting point of 0.7% GDP coming into 2026 (which today’s GDP revisions demonstrate were driven WAY MORE by fundamentals vs old narrative of...
Betting on Recession 2026: Up to 32% Fm 21% Pre-War
Market‑based platforms are signaling a notable recession risk for the United States by the end of 2026. Polymarket’s probability sits at 32%, down from a recent 37% peak, while Kalshi’s odds have climbed to 31.6% after a February surge. Goldman...
Healthcare Spending Jumps 7.9%—Outpacing Inflation
Spending on healthcare services is up 7.9% year over year, far higher than the inflation rate reported in the CPI https://t.co/Mt0STaWkJz
Weak Q4 GDP Gives Fed Leeway to Cut Rates
U.S. GDP grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with the forecast of 1.4%. The pace of growth has slowed noticeably. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve has more room not to keep interest rates high for too...
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Republicans Propose Cutting Capital Gains Taxes on Home Sales to Boost the Housing Market
Republican lawmakers have asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to use executive authority to index capital gains on primary residences to inflation. Indexing would adjust the cost basis, potentially reducing taxable gains for long‑term homeowners, especially higher‑income sellers. The proposal builds...
Core PCE Inflation Jumps to 3.1% in January
Core prices rose 0.36% in January in the PCE index (Nov and Dec price levels were revised up slightly), raising the 12-month inflation rate to 3.1% This index had fallen to 2.6% in April 2025 Headline was +0.28% in January and 2.8%...
Core PCE on Target; Headline Inflation Eases Below
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
Macro Matters: Yield-Curve Scenarios with BNY’s Granet
In this episode, BNY Mellon CIO Jason Granet discusses the current and future shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, arguing that recent flattening is a temporary, cyclical retracement and that a steeper curve is likely to resume. He and...
Quiet Markets, Massive Week: 7 Central Bank Rate Decisions
Markets are quiet today but there's a BIG week ahead with 7 central bank rate decisions including the Fed Here's my take on it all 👇
Gasoline Dip Masks Rising Electricity and Natural Gas Costs
Energy Inflation for Americans. Dropping gasoline prices since mid-2022 papered over big price increases in electricity and natural gas. But that’s now over https://t.co/KjuZv4jN7V https://t.co/8HsWsulfsD
“How Energy Prices Figure Into the Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions”
The Federal Reserve’s rate‑setting calculus is increasingly tied to volatile energy prices, which have surged amid geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Market participants are using SOFR and Fed Funds futures to price the likelihood of upcoming policy moves, with recent...
2‑Year Treasury Yields Spike to Highest Since August 2025
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
Core Auto Inflation Hits Fastest Rate in 12 Years
The peak for the PCE's core goods x-autos series was 5.3% YoY in 2022. We're not there , but it will jump from 2.3% in Jan26 to 2.9% in Feb26 tks to a 1.0% MoM surge. Outside of covid, it's...
Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure
Core CPI remained mild in January‑February 2026, but the Fed‑preferred core PCE is projected to outpace it sharply. Economists expect core PCE to rise about 3.1% year‑over‑year, creating the widest CPI‑PCE gap in decades. The divergence stems from differing weightings,...
Fed May Cut Rates If Energy Prices Trigger Recession
"Higher inflation could cause the Fed to eventually raise interest rates. But Sahm said the Fed will also consider what could happen if energy costs rise so high that the economy slows down. “That’s a scenario in which the Fed would...
Key Forces Shaping Global Economy Ahead of March FOMC
A few moments from my recent interview with Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق 🎙️ We discussed some of the key topics shaping today’s global economic landscape — inflation, oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 18th. Grateful for the...
Stagflation Sojourn
U.S. equities posted their worst weekly decline in nearly a year as an energy‑driven stagflation scenario unfolded following a sharp spike in oil prices tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The article attributes the shock to escalating...
Core CPI‑PCE Spread Set to Hit -65bps, Third Largest
Tmrw, we'll see the YoY core CPI vs YoY core PCE spread widen to around -65bps, which would be the 3rd largest in four decades. Shelter cooling helped to narrow the spread over the last 18m to about +20bps in...
Fed Trapped: Oil, Jobs, and Yield Curve Crisis
The Fed can't cut because of oil. Can't hike because of jobs. Can't do nothing because the curve is screaming. Monetary policy was built for one crisis at a time. This is three.
Market Wrap
The U.S. economy showed resilience in early 2026 despite a sharp drop in consumer confidence, which fell to 84.5 – the lowest since May 2014. Manufacturing activity rebounded, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbing to 52.6, the strongest pace in...
Hidden Labor Weakness: Payrolls Down, Jobs Slashed
February payrolls negative. 330K federal jobs cut since October. Unemployment holding at 4.4%. The labor market is weakening under the surface. The headline number is the last to know.
Long‑term Unemployment Spikes Early, Now Cooling, No Recession Yet
Long-duration unemployment is one of the most cyclical and recession-sensitive labor indicators. Every recession produces a sharp surge in long-term unemployment: * 1954 recession: ~+550% spike * 1974–75 recession: ~+300% * 1982 recession: ~+100%+ * 2008–09 recession: ~+150% * 2020 COVID recession: ~+330% Historically, YoY long-term unemployment...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...
How AI Spending Is Impacting the U.S. Economy
AI-driven capital expenditures are currently contributing just over one percentage point to U.S. GDP growth, buoyed by a stock‑market rally that has turned consumption into a bubble‑like surge. Much of this spending is financed through vulnerable credit structures, raising concerns...
Fed Cuts Unlikely as Inflation Stays Above Target
At the start of the year, the market was pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts. Today: just one cut, and not until the September meeting. The reality is inflation never moved down to the Fed's 2% target and is now moving higher....
January Trade Data Masks Deeper Economic Trends
I can see why the Trump administration likes the January trade data. Imports didn't move much v December and exports bounced back from a December dip. But there is a bit more going on under the hood 1/ many...
US Energy Spending Share Drops Among Consumers
The share of energy-related consumer spending has declined in the US. @soberlook WFC @augurinfinity https://t.co/UrUf2APJn5 https://t.co/4k9Hw8tcSW
Powell Faces Rate‑cut Pressure as Oil Doubles
Live look at Powell getting the demands to cut rates while oil just spiked 100% https://t.co/qDIcLm6oIA
US Recession Odds Surge to 32%, Highest in 3 Months
US recession chance jumps to 32%.. highest in more than 3 months (and consider there's less time for it to happen in this market) @kalshi https://t.co/rx3rkIwTm6 https://t.co/jCSx2ZLeuK
Dollar Index Hits Three‑month High as Rate‑cut Bets Shrink
The $DXY Dollar Index has advanced to close at a three-month high while also clearing some channel and Fib resistance on the close. Notably, the market's FOMC rate expectations for 2026 have also extended their shift, now only pricing in...
Rate‑Hike Pricing Hits S&P, Small‑Caps
As the front part of the curve moves closer toward pricing in Fed rate hikes, SPX is down just 1.2%... and the Russell 2000 isn't getting killed $SPY $IWM https://t.co/ITSA3q3sjN
President Urges Rare Intermeeting Rate Cut Before Scheduled Decision
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
Iran War Inflation Drives Terminal Rate to 3.37%
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4