Grocery Prices Will Continue to Increase in 2026: USDA
The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts a 2.5% rise in overall grocery prices for 2026, slightly below the 20‑year average of 2.6%. Seven of the 15 food‑at‑home categories, including beef, fish, sugar and non‑alcoholic beverages, are expected to outpace the historic trend, while egg prices are projected to plunge 27.4%. Category‑specific forecasts show beef and veal up 5.5%, pork up 1.9%, and fresh vegetables modestly higher. The outlook signals uneven inflation across the food basket.
Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales
U.S. mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest levels since September 2022, yet home sales remain stagnant. A roughly 50% imbalance between sellers and buyers underscores a deep‑seated market freeze. Inventory shortages and lingering affordability concerns continue to suppress demand...
Why Wall Street Panicked over a Sci-Fi Blog Post
Wall Street’s recent tumble was triggered by a speculative memo from Citrini Research that painted a dystopian AI future where productivity booms coexist with massive white‑collar job loss and collapsing consumer demand. The Substack‑style piece, framed as a 2028 science‑fiction...
Current Stance:
My positioning & stance update on Gold , Dollar , US indexes & Bitcoin 🧵
Fiscal Policy Dragged Q4 Growth, Boosts Q1
Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 1 pct pt from GDP growth in Q4. We expect it will be *add* 2.6 pts in Q1 as effects of shutdown are reversed, will be roughly neutral...
The New Age of Western Industrial Policy: Is There a New Playbook?
A virtual “Trade Winds” event on March 11, 2026 gathered top economists and policymakers to assess the resurgence of Western industrial policy. Speakers outlined a growing toolbox—including procurement preferences, subsidies, and public‑private partnerships—driven by competitiveness, innovation, and economic‑security concerns. The measures aim...
Bostic Warns Fed Independence Faces Real, Uncertain Threat
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
Fed Vice Chair Urges Big Banks Return to Mortgages
Big banks retreated from mortgages after the 2008 housing crash—now this Fed governor wants them back After a decade+ of "migration" toward nonbanks, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman says it's time to reconsider policy My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/6IY86V9OTy
The Trump Administration's America First Investment Pledges
The Trump administration announced an "America First" investment drive that has secured more than $5 trillion in pledges from foreign governments for projects across defense, technology, energy and infrastructure. The deals are framed as reciprocal arrangements, linking tariff relief to partner...
Excessive Household Debt Dampens Consumer Spending, BIS Finds
Interesting research paper from the BIS and Bank of Korea on the interplay between excessive household debt and consumer spending https://t.co/inCiWR5V6F
More Pandemic Construction, Fewer Bidding Wars; Less Building, More.
🏗️The places that built the most housing during the pandemic have the fewest bidding wars, and the places that neglected to build have the most. 🏘️ See percent of homes selling above list price by county. https://t.co/giPGgmFuBr
AI + Work: Understanding AI's Impact on the Labor Market
Leading research institutions—Yale's Budget Lab, Brookings' Hamilton Project, and the Peterson Institute for International Economics—are convening a virtual event to dissect AI's influence on employment. The discussion will spotlight the most informative data sources, from real‑time job postings to wage...
The State of US-Japan Economic Relations in a Changing Global Economy
A recent webinar examined the evolving economic partnership between the United States and Japan, highlighting trade, investment, and supply‑chain dynamics amid shifting global patterns. Experts discussed how post‑pandemic realignments and technological change are reshaping bilateral ties. The dialogue also addressed...
Mortgage Demand Hits 10‑month Low, Biggest Homebuyer Strike
Mortgage demand to buy houses just plummeted to its lowest level in 10 months. The MBA mortgage purchase index is now at 150. 57% crash from pandemic peak. 40% drop from 2018-2019 levels. It's the biggest homebuyer strike ever. https://t.co/FVB0HYY4bc
Higher Real Wages Benefit Workers as Consumers
People seem to have forgotten that workers are consumers. Rising real wages is pro worker too, even if some tasks get replaced.
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak
The December Case‑Shiller report shows nominal house prices reaching fresh all‑time highs, while inflation‑adjusted (real) values sit slightly below their 2022 peak—2.2% for the national index and 2.4% for the composite 20. Despite the recent dip, real prices remain 10.3%...
USDJPY‑Yield Spread Correlation Rebounds to Strong Positive
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
Fed Moves Needn't Dictate Other Central Banks' Actions
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...
How Africa Keeps Losing Despite China V. West Race for Minerals
The United States hosted its first Critical Minerals Ministerial in February 2026, unveiling a preferential trading bloc, price‑floor mechanisms and a $12 billion strategic stockpile to curb China’s dominance. At the same time, a US‑backed consortium struck a $9 billion deal with...
Rich 5s Cheapen Ahead of Auction; Yields Rise
Not surprising to see some cheapening of very rich 5s before the auction later today. 2s5s10s up a few bps from Monday's Citrini low. Interesting to see if the move has legs post-auction https://t.co/ZQjjNm6NwT
Midterm Years Naturally Bring Stock Market Volatility
Yes, stocks in the US have been choppy so far this year. But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years. https://t.co/gX328BtAzw
Dollar Supported by a Weak Yen and Strength in US Consumer Confidence
The dollar index rose modestly as a two‑week low yen boosted USD/JPY and stronger US consumer confidence lifted the greenback. Dec S&P composite‑20 home‑price data also outperformed expectations, while a rally in the yuan limited gains. The euro slipped on...
US Policies Amplify Global Inflation Beyond Shared Goods
"How U.S.-Centric is the Inflation Problem?" https://t.co/536nv3SjWg "whatever common elements are shared by globally traded consumer and business goods have been augmented by country-specific decisions in the United States, Germany, and Canada." https://t.co/QflnhV9CDt
Free Trade Is the Greatest Path to Prosperity and Peace
"In the name of both prosperity and world peace there are few steps that we could take which would contribute more than a complete move toward free trade." -- Milton Friedman https://t.co/5HsJX8FJPm
Reduce Inequality to Address Affordability
U.S. income inequality has deepened sharply from 1974 to 2024, with the bottom four quintiles’ share of total earnings falling from 62 % to under 55 % while the top 20 % rose to 52.2 %. The top five percent’s income share surged 40 %,...
Ernst Vows to Cover Iowa’s $2.55 Price Gap
$2.55 Iowa average https://t.co/qKoxDrbRtX, but Senator Ernst promises to make up the difference compared to what you'll pay
Trump Proposes Tariffs to Shift Tax Burden Onto Middle Class
Trump says he wants to lower taxes on the rich and raise them on middle and working class
Douglas Irwin on Tariffs in America and the Supreme Court Case
Supreme Court ruled on Feb 20, 2026 that the International Economic Emergency Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. The decision directly challenges the wave of tariffs enacted by President Donald Trump during his second term,...
Goolsbee Flags Stubborn Core Service Inflation, Questions AI Growth Boost
#NABE2026 Chicago Fed Pres Austan Goolsbee third day of policy meeting. More worried about the risks to inflation, especially the persistence of core service sector inflation, which shouldn’t be affected by tariffs. This is after stripping out shelter costs....
Commentary: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Price Growth Slowing Through December
The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.3% year‑over‑year in December, a slight dip from 1.4% in November, indicating a slowdown in price growth. Existing‑home sales fell to a 1995 low while national inventory more than doubled since...
Young Adult Headship Rates in 2024: Cyclical Slip or New Equilibrium?
Young adult headship rates slipped to 43.7% in 2024, reversing the post‑pandemic rise that peaked at 44.2% in 2023. While this figure still exceeds the 40.2% level recorded in 2017, it remains below the roughly 46% benchmark of the 1990s‑early...
Musk's AI Debt Plan: Flawed Promise, Real Risks
Elon Musk and the AI Solution to U.S. Debt: A Critical Analysis Link to the complete analysis - https://youtu.be/zxkw2w4-WpQ?si=iZFhj_AoZ_c3m3te
Trump Tariffs Produce Negligible Job Growth, a Flop
My view in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump's tariffs: "Only 181,000 total jobs were created in the US last year, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Contrary to the Spinmeister-in-Chief, tariffs are, when it comes to jobs, a flop." https://t.co/LtaB5ShdIl
State and Metro Employment: Fourth Quarter 2025
FRED’s latest maps reveal nonfarm employment changes for Q4 2025. North Carolina led states with a 22,700‑job gain, while Virginia and Washington, DC each shed over 17,000 jobs. At the metro level, the New York‑Newark‑Jersey City area added 31,200 jobs, whereas the...
Trump Wields Tariffs as Coercive Negotiation Tool
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "With the tariff gun at their heads, the Tariff Man asserts that he can force them to sign on the dotted line, even if it is under duress." https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Stay Calm: Markets Build Wealth Over Time
The stock market is a great wealth builder over the long run, as long as you can resist panicking during downturns. https://t.co/o8C03pFJqy
Tariffs Contradict Carnegie’s Friendship Principles, Says Fortune
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "The use of tariffs as threats and leverage is nowhere to be found in Dale Carnegie’s 1936 classic How to Win Friends and Influence People.” https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Wall Street Lawyer Randall Guynn Named Fed Supervision Director
Randall Guynn, a prominent Wall Street lawyer, will become the next director of supervision and regulation at the Federal Reserve, effective March 8 w/@AidenReiter https://t.co/WIPFQbILxz
Overtime Tax Break Is More Complex than It Appears
One of the OBBBA's signature provisions aims to let some hourly employees keep more of the pay earned during their most grueling workweeks. Although the White House has characterized this provision as "no tax on overtime," experts say it's "not...
Economy Accelerates Sorting of Winners and Losers
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1
Modernize Unemployment Insurance to Restore Government Legitimacy
This is probably where the focus of a lot of efforts needs to go, as much as it might seem small-bore / Clintonian Appetite for tax increases very low. Appetite for spending changes (up or down) also not high. Improving govt...
Avoid Rehashing Fed Gold/ETF Debate if ZIRP Returns
I just hope if we really do end up back at ZIRP that we don’t debate the Fed buying gold or ETF’s, that was bad discourse.
Waller Doubts AI Fuels Current Productivity Surge
Waller on Monday pushes back on the idea that the ongoing productivity boom is currently being driven by AI. "A.I. at some point will clearly kick in down the road, but I don't think it's going to be in the...
Walller Signals Potential Rate‑Cut Pause Amid Improving Data
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Severe Unemployment & Stock Crash Trigger Major Fiscal Response
If the unemployment rate hits 6% with stocks down 25-30% (roughly the thresholds when we got TARP/CARES Act), we’ll get a big fiscal policy response. But it won’t be actual TARP or CARES, it depends on what the crisis looks...
We Can Cushion Job Losses, Yet Resistance Persists
This is why I think the @Citrini7 scenario is plausible: We demonstrated that we have the power to minimize employment disruptions associated with big supply shocks and shifts in demand... ...but everyone decided they hated it.
Base Case Unlikely
Helpful thought-experiment, but undersells: 1) competition & demand elasticity for cheaper code, 2) how fast monetary & fiscal pol move at 10% U3, & 3) wealth effects/reinvestment bolstering productivity & offsetting wage loss. Tail risk yes. Base case no. https://t.co/BDbOcr4sHF
Waller Open to Steady Rates in March if Labor Stabilizes
Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize. He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate...
Economists Needed to Assess AI’s Macro Economic Impact
We need real economists (@ModeledBehavior, @arpitrage, @tylercowen, Krugman etc) to take a crack at the fast AI scenarios from an NGDP, RGDP, productivity growth, inflation, 30,000-foot macro standpoint. What are the tech/VC/hedge fund people missing?
AI Not Needed to Prevent US Bankruptcy, Model Shows
Early invite to my network, as I am going live in an hour to debunk what Elon Musk says: The U.S. is 1000% heading for bankruptcy without AI. I ran the model. Then I ran it again with correct accounting. The doom loop...