Trust in Numbers
The article argues that while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faces accusations of political manipulation, there is no evidence of data tampering and the agency relied on its documented imputation methodology during the 2025 shutdown. It highlights the importance of procedural consistency for CPI, which underpins Social Security, TIPS, and private contracts. The piece also points out chronic underinvestment, staff cuts, and sample reductions that erode data precision. Ultimately, trust in official statistics depends on both safeguarding against interference and maintaining robust funding for statistical agencies.
Economists Needed to Assess AI’s Macro Economic Impact
We need real economists (@ModeledBehavior, @arpitrage, @tylercowen, Krugman etc) to take a crack at the fast AI scenarios from an NGDP, RGDP, productivity growth, inflation, 30,000-foot macro standpoint. What are the tech/VC/hedge fund people missing?
AI Not Needed to Prevent US Bankruptcy, Model Shows
Early invite to my network, as I am going live in an hour to debunk what Elon Musk says: The U.S. is 1000% heading for bankruptcy without AI. I ran the model. Then I ran it again with correct accounting. The doom loop...
When Lower Inflation Hurts
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bonson examines the current U.S. economic landscape, focusing on the paradox of disinflation that may arrive in 2026 but could be economically painful. He breaks down recent data—including a weaker-than-expected GDP...
Economists Hide Real Risks of U.S. Bond Dumping
Everyone's worried about foreign countries dumping U.S. bonds, but here's what mainstream economists won't tell you about government finances. The link to the complete presentation is in the comments.
Debt Wall Myth: Accounting Shows Different Reality
The $10 trillion U.S. debt wall has become a political weapon. But the accounting tells a different story than what you'll read in mainstream economics textbooks.
A Growing Number of Workers Went on Strike in 2025
New Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveal that 306,800 workers participated in 30 major work stoppages in 2025, a 13% rise from the previous year. Public‑sector strikes dominated, accounting for 17 of the incidents, while private‑sector actions included a 46‑day...
Quarterly Services Survey
The U.S. Census Bureau announced an updated release calendar to address a recent lapse in federal funding, postponing the next Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) revisions and benchmark releases. The delay affects historical corrections, new seasonal factors, and data from the...
Adjusted Q4 GDP Shows Stronger Growth, Q1 Rebound Expected
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
Core PCE Inflation Ends Year Elevated, Near 3%
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
HUD Moves to Close 'Mixed Status Households' Roommate Loophole
HUD Secretary Scott Turner announced a proposed rule that would require proof of U.S. citizenship or eligible immigration status for every resident in HUD‑funded housing, targeting so‑called “mixed‑status households.” The rule follows a HUD‑DHS audit that identified roughly 200,000 units...
The Link Between Interest Rates and Exchange Rates : The Uncovered Interest Parity
The post examines how the 10‑year US‑German bond yield spread correlates with the USD/EUR exchange rate, showing that higher US yields usually coincide with dollar appreciation. A notable exception occurred after April 2 2025, when a sharp US yield rise was followed...
Advance Wholesale Inventories
The U.S. Census Bureau has postponed the Advance Economic Indicators Report, originally slated for January 28, 2026, to February 19, 2026 due to a recent lapse in federal funding. The report, which provides forward‑looking data on international trade, retail inventories,...
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
The U.S. Census Bureau announced USA Trade Online: Reimagined, a modernized, login‑free platform that retains core trade data while offering a streamlined interface. A processing error in Exhibit 15 was corrected and the updated FT900 PDF and XLSX were posted on...
90% of Govt Money Creation Neutralized by Bond Sales
I've been teaching this for decades, and now the data proves it: 90% of government money creation between 2000 and 2024 was cancelled out by secondary bond sales. The system we have actively destroys the money governments create. EconomicReform
January 2026 Rental Report: Renter Conditions Improve Across U.S. Markets, With Notable Increases in Vacancies
Realtor.com’s January 2026 Rental Report shows the 29th consecutive month of year‑over‑year rent declines for 0‑2‑bedroom units, with the median asking rent falling 1.5% to $1,672. Vacancy rates in the nation’s 50 largest metros rose to 7.6%, the highest since...
Online Labor Demand Increased in January
The Conference Board‑Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose to 100.4 in January 2026, a modest 0.4 % gain from December’s revised 100.0 reading. The increase follows a 5.6 % decline between November and December and leaves the index 15.4 % lower than a...
Report: America’s $38 Trillion Debt Demands Bipartisan Action
A new report from the Committee for Economic Development warns that the United States’ national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, matching the size of the economy and rising rapidly. The report urges Congress to create a bipartisan fiscal commission to devise...
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Improved in January
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index rose to 105.06 in January 2026, up from 104.51 in December, indicating a modest acceleration in payroll growth. Unemployment insurance claims continued to fall and the share of involuntary part‑time workers slipped to 17.6%,...
The Rising Burden of Elder Care in the United States
The United States faces a growing elder‑care burden as the population ages. About 29% of adults 65 and older report difficulty with daily activities, rising to 60% for those 85+, while roughly one‑quarter of those in need receive no care....
Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
The latest BLS employment report revealed that payroll growth stalled in 2024, with the March 2025 benchmark revision removing 898,000 jobs and total downward adjustments surpassing one million by year‑end. Despite the sizable cuts, the revised employment series closely mirrors...