Week Ahead: US Dollar Slips on Trade Uncertainty as NFP, Eurozone HICP Loom
US Dollar slipped this week, trading near 97.60 on the DXY, down about 0.2% as traders digest the Supreme Court’s decision that declared Trump‑era tariffs illegal and the administration’s subsequent new levies. A stronger‑than‑expected Producer Price Index failed to lift the greenback, while the euro gained on softer German HICP data and ECB President Lagarde’s dovish remarks. The pound recovered near 1.3470 after BoE Governor Bailey signaled possible rate cuts, and gold rose to a one‑month high of $5,260 as safe‑haven demand grew. Market participants now await key U.S. non‑farm payrolls and Eurozone inflation releases later in the week.
U.S. Home Prices Stagnate, Punta Gorda & Austin Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in January; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 22% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased
Gains for Student Housing Construction in the Last Quarter of 2025
Private fixed investment in student dormitories rose 1.5% in Q4 2025, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $3.9 billion. The gain follows three quarters of decline but remains 1.3% below the same quarter a year earlier. Pandemic‑induced drops had pushed investment...
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Growth Estimate for Q1 3.0% versus 3.1% Last
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model now estimates first‑quarter 2026 real GDP growth at 3.0%, a slight dip from the 3.1% forecast three days earlier. The revision follows fresh data from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics,...
AI-Driven Recession Threatens Benefits of Lower Mortgage Rates
Cheering for lower mortgage rates has always been a delicate balance of hoping for payment relief w/o a wider economic downturn. In other words, getting a cheaper 30-year fixed without a big increase in unemployment or a stock market crash. The fact...
Bitcoin Drops 3% as Inflation Hots up Again, and a Quiet Services Spike Just Changed the Rate Cut Story
Bitcoin fell about 3% after January's producer‑price index (PPI) posted a 2.9% year‑over‑year rise, outpacing the 2.6% consensus. The surprise was driven by a services‑inflation spike, with trade‑service margins up 2.5%, while consumer‑price inflation (CPI) cooled to 2.4% YoY. The...
'Soft' Data Soars To 2-Year Highs As Chicago PMI Smashes Expectations
The Market News International Chicago Business Barometer posted a 57.7 reading, the strongest level since May 2022 and well above analyst forecasts. This marks the second consecutive month the index has stayed above the 50‑point expansion threshold. Core components such...
Producer Prices Surge, Profit Margins Hit Record Highs
🔥 My colleague Meagan Martin-Schoenberger has updated the producer price index data released today. The index showed the largest increase in core goods (wx food and energy) prices since early 2022; profit margins soared to their highest on record, with...
Sticky US PPI Sour Risk Mood; Sterling Hit by UK Political Blow
US producer‑price index jumped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, outpacing expectations and reigniting concerns that inflationary pressures remain entrenched. The surprise lift pushed Dow futures down over 500 points and nudged the 10‑year Treasury yield below the 4% threshold, suggesting markets...
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Bullish Equity Outlook
Scott @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport kindly forward this to Slink, @saraeisen (who has expressed the view that inflation is declining) and your panelists who mostly insist as part of their bullish stance on equities that inflation has been conquered. From Peter Boockvar...
PPI Spikes 0.8%, Ending Rate‑cut Hopes
PPI just printed 0.8% vs 0.3% expected. Let that sink in. Producers are paying MORE. That cost gets passed to YOU. This is the hottest PPI in over 6 months and it just killed every rate cut fantasy on Wall Street. Buckle up —...
America’s Most Expensive ZIP Codes – 2026
The 2026 luxury housing report shows the median entry price for the nation’s top 10 % of homes steady at about $1.2 million, while the elite “ultraluxury” ZIP codes now start at $5.5 million. Newport Coast, CA (92657) displaced Fisher Island, FL to...
Cool PPI Print May Lower Yields, Boost Tech
February 27, 2026 📊 Insight: PPI at 8:30 = inflation read for producers. Cooler print could push yields lower and support growth/tech. Hot number likely pressures rates higher and weighs on high-multiple names. Watch $DXY and 10Y reaction first 5–10 mins. Economic...
The Market Brief
U.S. equity markets opened with a sharp selloff, pulling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward monthly losses while the Dow remains on track for a February gain. Despite the decline, about 70% of S&P constituents closed higher, indicating broad participation....
SF FedViews: Prospects for AI-Related Activity Add to Uncertainty Around the Economic Outlook in 2026
Despite a fourth‑quarter slowdown to 1.4% annualized, the U.S. economy is projected to resume solid, above‑trend growth in the first half of 2026. Labor market indicators show stabilization, with January adding 130,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edging down to...
Weaker Dollar Raises Import Costs, Boosts Export Appeal
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
Investment Hinges on Capital Cost, Not Cash Windfalls
The tariff refund issue is fun to follow. But it doesn't matter much for the macroeconomy. Business investment determined more by cost of capital than cash availability. Keynesian multiplier very low on one-time transfers to businesses. And debt impact large...
Fed Sets Reserve Levels; SOFR‑IORB Gap Signals Bank Comfort
No, it tells you there are still very large quantities of reserves in the system as a result of QE. Banks collectively are obliged to hold all the reserves issued by the Fed. The quantity of reserves in the system...
PPI Stays Elevated at 2.9% Amid Fed QE Shift
January’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 2.9%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/PsHdiaQZzH
Factory Construction Down 13%—Trump Misreads the Data
Trump has to stop reading charts upside down. Factory construction is down around 13% after adjusting for inflation. https://t.co/YNFjjiLWfV That's only a boom in Trump's skull.
Global Rotation From US Assets to Rest of World Begins
The 15+ year breakout is sending a very clear message: The global rotation out of US-based assets and into the rest of the world has officially begun, in my view. New macro presentation is out: https://t.co/GY7oyQol42 https://t.co/rypcHQGugR
AI, Private Credit, and US Debt Drive Market Volatility
Having @bethanymac12 on the show to discuss the economy, markets & the issues currently causing volatility like the benefits/consequences of A.I. as well as trends in Private Credit is invaluable. We also hit $FNMA $FMCC. Of course my @Kalshi topic...
Pandemic Hiring Mistakes Rival AI's Labor Market Impact
AI could be affecting the labor market right now, but it's also important to remember that we're all still living in the shadow of pandemic decisions made years ago. We should treat their downstream effects as at least as strong...
Hot PPI Fails to Dent Fed Cut Expectations
The hotter-than-expected headline PPI this morning didn't curb Fed rate cut expectations. The implied cuts through 2026 from Fed Fund futures has edged up a bit. $DXY hasn't taken the fundamental bait for a bearish wedge break though: https://t.co/CgVJLLvWs8
Core Wholesale Prices Jump 0.8% in January, Outpacing Forecasts
"Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected" https://t.co/LVa2AuC787 "For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%" Big Jan26 drivers: -professional & commercial equipment wholesaling services -Trade services -metals https://t.co/SIuJIRE7bD
Low Treasury Yields Revive MMT Enthusiasm Flood
Feeling listless and disjointed as I await the inevitable barrage of "#MMT was right all along" posts now that 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%... https://t.co/ANQCCAXJms
Sticky PPI Keeps Rates High, Drives Yield Decline
The PPI is not falling, it has become sticky. It means rates stay higher. That will slow things down. Thus bond yields are falling. Makes sense? God knows https://t.co/XxE0jqRJ3L
Amazon CEO Warns of Bleak 2026, Economists Concur
Amazon’s CEO has a scary prediction for 2026, and some economists think he is right (Starting with Peter Orszag and me) https://t.co/dkUBiqQG6C
Fed's Massive Balance Sheet, Not Warsh, Needs Trimming
"Kevin Warsh Isn’t Crazy, the Fed’s Big Balance Sheet Is" The obvious path to shrink the Fed's balance sheet is to go back to a corridor system. It worked for over 100 years as @josephsternberg points out. The problem: the establishment...
Questioning Inflation Outlook: Is 10‑Year Rally a Flight‑to‑Quality?
@jimcramer I dont understand your response to the inflation print. It is not positive. And couldnt the short term strength in the 10 year (something you just mentioned) be a flight to quality with rising credit conerns and...
US Producer Prices Surge Past Expectations in January
US January Producer Price Index prints at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected - previously 0.4% m/m Core #PPI at 0.8% vs expected 0.3% - previously 0.6% m/m Core PPI at 3.6% vs 3.0% expected - previously 3.3% y/y/ Headline PPI 2.9% vs expected 2.6%...
Physician and Insurance Shifts May Lift Core PCE Above 0.5%
For PPI, will be curious to see if we get the potential upside risk from offices of physicians (near-record jump in Medicare reimbursement rates of >3% could boost this item) & health insurance (expiration of ACA subsidies). IF those materialize,...
Tariff Payments Show Voters, Not Foreigners, Foot the Bill
The process and legal fights over paying back import taxes will help shove tariffs back into voters’ minds, as well as provide them an excruciatingly detailed civics lesson in who literally pays the levies. (Hint: it’s not foreign governments.) https://t.co/N8dOe6rapr
Real Yields Plunge, Not Breakeven Inflation, Despite AI Hype
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
Equities Slip, Yields Dip Below 4%, Dollar Softens
Friday: Equity futures lower again, treasury yields down by 2-3 bps with ten-year yield dipping below 4%. Dollar softer. PPI due out today.
Remote Workers Earn Higher Wages, Driven by Occupation and Education
Workers who work from home earn on average higher wages than workers who do not. An important part of this premium reflects occupational and educational differences since higher-paying occupations and better-educated workers more likely to WFH https://t.co/YjX9VR1OiG
US ITC to Study Impact of Stripping China’s Trade Status
Reuters: The U.S. International Trade Commission said on Thursday it would investigate the economic impact of revoking China’s permanent normal trade status over a six-year period, a move that would likely increase tariffs on Chinese imports. https://t.co/T0xSqrLDgN
Fed Seeks to Block DOJ Subpoenas in Secret Probe
The DOJ probe of the Federal Reserve is playing out behind closed doors The Fed, in sealed proceedings, is asking a judge to quash the subpoenas, which could reduce or eliminate its obligation to respond via @cryanbarber @sgurman https://t.co/HvnC5W8ImQ
Trump Proposes Government‑run Retirement Accounts For
President Trump announced during his State of the Union address Tuesday night that he plans to give Americans without 401(k)s access to a retirement account modeled on the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan, targeting the roughly 50 million people who...
Shelter‑driven Inflation Easing as Vacancies Rise, Wages Slow
Fed doves have happy tears, since over 40% of CPI inflation is due to shelter and wage growth is slowing down. Rising rental vacancies mean it's unlikely to see breakaway inflation again. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #inflation #economics #realestate #chartdaddy
Sub‑6% Mortgage Rates May Spur Buyer Confidence
Good to see Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey go sub-6% too. Not because it changes the math much, but because it will result in more positive news headlines and boost consumer sentiment. The type of stuff that can get prospective home...
Balancing Rates Drives Predictable Credit Cycles
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
Housing Market Snapshot: Latest Home Price Index Insights
Today’s podcast covers the state of the union housing talking points and the recent home price index reports @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy
Data Centers Must Fund Infrastructure, Not Expect Tax Breaks
It used to be that municipalities would give tax breaks for factories (jobs), but now the data center developers need to come with bags of money for infrastructure and the tax base.
Nearly Three‑quarters of U.S. Workers Eye Side Hustles
72% of workers in the U.S. have a side hustle or are considering pursuing one, according to SurveyMonkey’s 2025 study on workplace culture and trends. https://t.co/iAVeKwhZV4
Software Hiring Cycle Predicts Slowdown in Next 18 Months
This is the industry cycle I’ve been thinking about re: software company employment over the next 12-18 months: https://t.co/38u2sTZ13o
900 Companies Sue Over $100B Illegal Trump Tariffs
Almost 900 companies are SUING for refunds from the more than $100 Bn in ILLEGAL tariff revenue Pres. Trump collected in 2025. All Trump's ILLEGAL tariffs have done is MAKE ENEMIES and create LEGAL & FISCAL CHAOS. https://t.co/I1jP900jcz
Chicago Fed Forecast Shows February Unemployment Near 4.3%
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for February is 4.28%, so not likely to be much different from the BLS’s official reading last month. https://t.co/fmDwn7LlNk https://t.co/nw9NVUBD9I
AI-Driven Bottlenecks Threaten Prices, Smartphone Market to Drop 13%
The ai advances are real, but they imply some very unpleasant bottlenecks for a bunch of industries, and risk stoking prices in a variety of goods. Tariffs arent the only source of short run inflation risk
New Bill’s Stimulus Set to Boost Spending Soon
The most stimulative portions of the Big Beautiful Bill are about to hit over the next couple of months and will be adding some juice to consumer spending over the next few months