Mortgage Rates Jump After Iran Attack
Mortgage rates slipped back above the 6% threshold after the Iran attack, with the 30‑year fixed climbing to 6.12%—a 13‑basis‑point jump. Ten‑year Treasury yields rose nine basis points, and mortgage‑backed‑security prices fell, feeding the rate increase. Simultaneously, oil prices spiked as a Saudi refinery halted production and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, stoking inflation worries. Despite the bounce, rates remain close to the multi‑year lows seen in 2022, but heightened volatility is expected as the conflict unfolds.
LEI/CEI Ratio Hits 60‑Year Low, Forecasting Recession
Every recession since 1960 has been preceded by a material downturn in this ratio. Today’s reading is squarely in that danger zone. These charts show the Leading Economic Index (LEI) against the Coincident Economic Index (CEI). The shaded bars...
Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Higher in December
Private residential construction spending rose 1.5 % in December 2025, driven by gains in single‑family builds and home‑improvement projects. Single‑family construction increased 1.6 % month‑over‑month but remains 3.6 % below a year earlier, while multifamily spending edged up 0.1 % for a seventh straight...
ISM Prices Hit 70.5, Steel and Aluminum Costs Surge
ISM prices surged by 11.5 pts to 70.5, highest since Jun 2022. ISM said higher px for steel & alumin drove px index. That is unsurprising & has been evident in PPI data since Liberation Day. For manufacturers, the cost...
Measuring AI's Real Impact on Work and the Economy
Stanford economist Nick Bloom presented new empirical evidence on AI adoption and its effect on jobs and productivity. By merging firm‑level surveys, payroll records, and real‑time usage data, his team quantified how generative AI is being deployed across industries. The...
U.S. Retail Sales Up in October 2025, Building Materials Sector Sees Decline
U.S. Census Bureau reports October 2025 retail sales rose 2.2% year‑over‑year. Thirteen states and the District of Columbia posted positive changes, with New York leading at a 6.1% increase. Building‑materials and garden‑equipment dealers fell 5.4% YoY, while West Virginia saw a 16.1%...
Oil Shock Threatens Inflation, Yields, Market Deleveraging
Markets are in risk off mode but NOT full panic YET 📉 $SPX $ES $NQ down 🛢️ $CL surging 🥇 $GC up YET 💵 $DXY strong 📈 $VIX rising Ras Tanura attacked. Oil supply at risk. Iran escalating. If oil keeps climbing, inflation comes back fast. If...
Macro Cycle Shift Triggers Broad Market Re‑rating After AI Boom
Maybe, just maybe, there is a cyclical component to the past 5 months of underperformance in the largest names and momentum factors. A turn in the macro cycle usually leads to a turn in market leadership. We went 3 years...
Market Outlook for the Week of 2nd-6th March
The week of March 2‑6 is packed with macro releases, including Eurozone, UK and US manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone CPI flash estimates, Australian Q4 GDP, and a full slate of US labor market data. Analysts expect the ISM manufacturing PMI to dip...
US Strike on Iran Could End Low‑oil Price Relief
Low oil prices for much of the past year have helped cool inflation & given Trump license to tout more affordable prices at the pump. But if there was one scenario most likely to upset that trend, it was a...
ISM Miss Could Cool Yields, Boost Growth Stocks
March 2, 2026 Economic Events : 0945 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.2 | Prior 51.2 1000 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.7 | Prior 52.6 1000 – ISM Manufacturing Prices: Exp 60.6 | Prior 59.0 1130 – ATL Fed GDPNow (Q1):...
Jobs Report Collides With Iran War In Pivotal Week
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February posted a solid gain of 210,000 jobs, nudging the unemployment rate down to 3.6%. The report arrived amid heightened geopolitical tension following the weekend assassination that sparked an Iran‑Israel conflict. Investors grappled with strong labor...
Middle East Headlines Dominate Market over Weekly Data
🚨 TRADERS ALERT 🚨 📊 What to Watch This Week 🗓️ Mon: Iran war fallout + ISM Manufacturing 🗓️ Tue: Fed speakers 🗓️ Wed: ADP + ISM Services 🗓️ Thu: Jobless Claims 🗓️ Fri: NFP + Retail Sales + more Fed speak But make no mistake -...
Mortgage Rates Drop a Year
BACK TO A 6-HANDLE The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.12% Same day last year: 6.74% ------------------ 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.06% Spread today: 206 bps
Consumer Price Index Isn’t Properly Accounting For Healthcare Costs
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) omits key out‑of‑pocket healthcare expenses, masking true inflation for many Americans. While the CPI shows a modest 3% rise since President Trump’s second inauguration, premiums on the ACA marketplace have...
One in Five California Home Sales Are
California’s housing market is officially a landed gentry system. 🏠 New data from the Wall Street Journal: 1 in 5 of CA home transfers are now inheritances—double the US average. Does CA need to end Prop 13 to save the American Dream?...
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$TNX Monthly. Another bounce off 4% (40 on this chart) for Rates on 10-Year Note. Long-term continues multi-year narrowing triangle. https://t.co/gUtiLgqcs9
Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 2nd-6th March 2026
The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 is expected to unwind 137,000 barrels per day of voluntary cuts, signaling a tentative supply increase as Brent hovers near $71. US economic data show a slowdown in manufacturing, with the ISM PMI dropping...
10-Year Treasury Yield Volatility Reverses Haven Trade
10-Year US Treasury Yield Flipflops, Spikes by 14 Basis Points to 4.07%, after Plunging to 3.93%, amid Massive Volatility. It undid more than the entire haven trade that had started on Thursday and blew through the hot PPI inflation on Friday https://t.co/mjFPIIuVi8...
2% Inflation Won’t Trigger 3% Mortgage Rates
2% inflation won't lead to 3% mortgage rates with the Fed at neutral policy. https://t.co/TpEKz1u8Cu
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation...
US Manufacturing Grows, Input Costs Surge to 2022 Levels
"US manufacturing expanded in February but input prices soared at the fastest pace since 2022, stoking fears of an inflation resurgence even before this weekend’s attacks on Iran." https://t.co/eB5YwfWkhb https://t.co/qeDvw5frvv
ISM Manufacturing Prices Misleading; Soft CPI Ahead
Some focus given to ISM Manufacturing Prices back in 70. In my opinion very misleading for now (and solely based on energy). But the jury is obviously out. I expect a couple of incredibly soft CPI reports coming up.
Week Ahead: US Dollar Slips on Trade Uncertainty as NFP, Eurozone HICP Loom
US Dollar slipped this week, trading near 97.60 on the DXY, down about 0.2% as traders digest the Supreme Court’s decision that declared Trump‑era tariffs illegal and the administration’s subsequent new levies. A stronger‑than‑expected Producer Price Index failed to lift...
Memory Shortage Persists in ISM Manufacturing Survey
Memory shortage reported back to back months in the ISM Manufacturing Survey. I suspect this will be with us for a while.... https://t.co/RUpjKtiOJ6
Broad Market Breadth Improves, Favoring Value and Cyclicals
Second strong ISM NO print in a row. I'm not bullish, I'm BROADish. We see macro and micro breadth improving into 2027. Benefits to value, cyclicals, active management. https://t.co/geofWJYULy
Core Inflation Hits Highest Since Early 2024
CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest...
Ten-Year Yields Rise Above 4% Amid Brief Conflict Reaction
Ten-year treasury yields are back above 4%. Very short-lived reaction to the conflict in Middle East. https://t.co/CSDtKBWAFO
Jobs, Sales Data May Confirm Fed Rate Path Amid Tensions
Geopolitical shocks meet key labor and retail data this week. February jobs and January sales could seal the Fed's rate outlook amid Middle East tensions. 🟢 Open https://t.co/NUBk2v4rcI
China's Treasury Sales Hit Lowest Since 2008
⚠️China is indeed DUMPING US Treasuries: China’s holdings of US government bonds dropped -$75.5 BILLION in 2025, to $683.5 billion, the lowest since September 2008, the Financial Crisis. Since the 2013 peak, holdings have fallen -$633.2 BILLION.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
Demand Rises, Inventory Falls Amid Mortgage Rate Tension
What will happen? What did happen with the housing data last week? Demand went up, inventory went down, but I also have a special section about #mortgagerares and the conflict. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Oil Prices Set to Drop, Fueling Roaring 2020s
YARDENI: “.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring...
Modest Payroll Gains, Slight Un
NFP, Retail Sales Fri GS thinks +45k headline payrolls, +45k private, UR ticks up to 4.4% +0.5% Jan core Retail Sales https://t.co/EbcNES5A55
Foreign Investors Pour $1.55 Trillion Into USD, Defying “Sell America” Myths
Foreign investors poured a net $1.55 TRILLION into USD assets last year, up 31.4% from 2024. The oft repeated “Sell America” and “End of King Dollar” narratives don’t align with the facts. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the...
2023 Spread Surge Pushes Mortgages to 7.17%
The worst levels of the spreads in 2023 resulted in 7.17% mortgage rates today instead of 5.99%. https://t.co/PkASya1lri
AI, Private Credit, and Gold Shape US Economy
Was great to be on a panel down @iconnections_io in Miami hosted by @GuyAdami w/ @VD718 & Meredith Whitney. We discussed the U.S. consumer & economy & the impact of A.I. on markets. We hit "Private Credit" & "Gold is...
Factory Construction Outspends Data Centers Fivefold
Construction Spending on Data Centers, Factories, Powerplants, and Office Buildings: Boom, Bust, and in Between. Despite the hoopla about data centers, spending on factory construction was five times larger https://t.co/rBJr9DUgSX https://t.co/OyvbCGaHrk
Weak Dollar Often Worsens, Not Fixes, Trade Deficit
A Weak Dollar Won’t Fix the Trade Deficit There’s a popular belief that a weaker dollar will reduce the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports. In the short term, the opposite often happens. When the dollar falls, imports immediately become...
PMI Spike Signals End of Bear Market, Favor Equities, Crypto
Quite good actually; The recent read on PMI gave a big outlier: 57.7 The highest read since May '22. It doesn't say that we immediately need to pump with #Bitcoin or whatsoever, although it gives an indication of where the economy and markets...
Energy Fundamentals Outweigh Geopolitics as US Capex Plummets
Iran/US experts are everywhere today... Here is a friendly reminder that the case for energy is rooted in structural forces — not short-term geopolitical events. US energy sector capex, adjusted for GDP, is still down nearly 80% from prior peaks. Investors obsess...
Mainstream Economists Overlook Private Debt, Miss Recession
1/8 I predicted the Great Recession 3 years before it happened. It might sound ridiculous, but mainstream economists have convinced themselves that private debt does not matter. They only monitor government debt. EconomicTheory
Rates Slip Even as Inflation Heat Rises
Why did rates and bond yields drop today despite a hot inflation report? #Labor over #inflation. #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
Bank Credit Surge Signals Inflation Pressure Ahead
The growth rate in U.S. commercial bank credit has been steadily picking up. On Feb. 18th it was 6.7%/yr. When it comes to the money supply, commercial banks are the elephant in the room. They produce 80% of M2. THE US INFLATION GENIE...
10‑Year Yield Falls 34bps; Rate Cut Looms?
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
Mortgage Rates Mirror 10‑year Yield Plus Spread
The slow dance with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates has been happening for decades. You just add the mortgage spread variable here, too https://t.co/gavjysTwDz
Office Mandates Won’t Stop Talent Choosing Cheaper Cities
Interesting read. Even as most big companies have put in place return-to-office mandates it’s still structurally easier for talent to pick where to live (a suburb of Denver or Dallas rather than NY/CA) than it used to be, and it...
Are Tariffs Still Viable for US 2026 BOP?
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Tariffs and "International Payments Problems" https://t.co/A8fIZJSUSB It has long been accepted that tariffs (eg Section 122) are an acceptable tool for managing BOP issues. The real question is whether they would be useful for the U.S. in 2026. https://t.co/CDdBRF2zxx
Global Debt Hits Record High, Driven by China, US
SCMP: "Global debt climbed to a record high in 2025, rising at the fastest pace since the pandemic, with China and the United States accounting for a large share of the increase, according to a new report." https://t.co/GSQFwnXnb0
Next Week’s Trading Outlook: Key Markets, Themes, Risks
I discuss market conditions, key markets to watch, core themes and top global macro event risk (including #NFPs) for next week's trading in this week ahead video: https://t.co/lp8DLESugk https://t.co/0HVj5C19GQ
PPI Stays Elevated at 2.9% Amid Fed QE Shift
January’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 2.9%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/PsHdiaQZzH