Analysis: New CBO Projection Accounting for Trump Administration Policies Shows Americans Will Pay Billions More in Fuel Taxes
The Congressional Budget Office now projects that Americans will pay more than $80 billion in additional gasoline taxes over the next decade, a sharp rise from earlier forecasts. The increase stems from Trump‑era transportation rollbacks that discourage fuel‑efficiency measures and freeze electric‑vehicle incentives, prompting higher vehicle miles traveled. Despite the higher revenue, the Highway Trust Fund’s balance still hits zero in 2028, meaning the extra taxes only postpone insolvency by a few weeks. Critics argue the boost is negligible compared with the fund’s mounting expenditure needs.
NEW POD! How Credit Markets Shaped a Nation with Sarah Quinn
In the latest Net Interest Extra episode, sociologist Sarah Quinn discusses her book *American Bonds*, which argues that credit markets have been a foundational force in shaping the United States. Quinn traces how borrowing practices influenced industrial growth, urbanization, and...
Fed Sees Stable Labor, Cautious Optimism, Future Rate Cuts
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
Multifamily Absorption Rate Remains Below 50%
The Census Bureau’s SOMA report shows the three‑month absorption rate for new apartments stayed below 50% for the fourth consecutive quarter, slipping to 47% in Q2 2026. Despite modest growth in completions—over 90,000 units for the seventh straight quarter—median asking...
The Typical U.S. Homeowner Hangs Onto Their House For 12 Years. In Los Angeles, It’s 20 Years.
Redfin’s 2025 analysis shows the median U.S. homeowner now stays in a home for 12 years, the longest tenure since 2022. Tenure peaked at 13.4 years in 2020, fell during the pandemic‑driven buying surge, and rebounded slightly in 2025. California...
Are Data Centers Driving up Utility Costs? (Episode 27)
Utility electricity rates in the U.S. have risen faster than inflation since 2022, driven primarily by higher natural‑gas prices, pandemic‑induced residential demand, and under‑invested transmission infrastructure. While data centers add load in specific markets, they do not align with the...
The Dollar Is the Only Game in Town
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
Federal Reserve Revenue: Cutsinger’s Solution
The Federal Reserve sets its own operating budget and remits any surplus to the Treasury, but it lacks a residual claimant who would benefit from cost savings. Because officials do not capture saved dollars, there is little incentive to minimize...
Market Makers Now Serve as ETF Authorized Participants
Back in the day, Goldman Sachs was the premier Wall Street bad guy. The investment bank attracted endless scrutiny of the supposedly conflicting and asymmetric arrangements that powered its broker dealer operations. Key among these were its primary dealer arrangements....
DC's Limited Tricks Can't Stop High Oil Prices
DC won’t let high oil prices hurt Americans Good luck As @rory_johnston frames it, here are the options • SPR release (here we go again) • Sanctions relief on Russia (err... not great) • Gas tax holiday (2022 redux) You can’t print barrels https://t.co/3KCAj8NtGr #Oil #EnergyMarkets...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for February 27, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the curve for the week ending February 27, 2026. The 30‑year note fell 0.08 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield dropped 0.11 points to 3.97%. The 3‑year Treasury rate held at 3.39%, indicating modest...
PMI Rebound Offers Limited Boost for Crypto Speculation
ISM vs Bitcoin relationship is more correlation than causation. The difference today compared to past cycles is credit spreads were wide to start the PMI rebound, due to prior growth scares that led to risk off environments. Since 2022, spreads...
Markets Price Supply Shock, Real Rates Rise
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
TPM26: Iran Conflict Puts New Risk on US Economic Growth: Yellen
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens to choke oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude futures to their highest level in over a year. Higher energy prices could lift inflation and undermine the...
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
Wider Term Premia Needed to Hedge Bond‑equity Shocks
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
Manufacturing Rebounds, but Core PPI Surges Unexpectedly
Manufacturing is finally reviving, but core PPI just jumped 0.8% in a month when economists expected 0.3%. Services inflation refuses to budge. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/4QiEXL6LgZ
Dimon Warns Inflation May Spark Economic Downturn
“Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high…I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think..I think inflation will cause the economic downturn:” JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon https://t.co/xB4HN6ITSk
Simply Unaffordable! FHA Lower Credit Score Borrowers (0-619) Suffer Escalating Mortgage Delinquency Rates
FHA loans held by borrowers with credit scores between 0 and 619 are experiencing a sharp rise in 90‑day delinquency rates, the steepest since the program’s inception. The surge follows a post‑COVID fiscal stimulus that drove home prices to record...
Trump Refuses Refunds After Supreme Court Deems Tariffs Unlawful
After Trump’s tariffs were ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court, he is now dragging his feet and refusing to refund Americans who were illegally TAXED by tariffs. https://t.co/vlXQUbwjEo
LEI/CEI Ratio Hits 60‑Year Low, Forecasting Recession
Every recession since 1960 has been preceded by a material downturn in this ratio. Today’s reading is squarely in that danger zone. These charts show the Leading Economic Index (LEI) against the Coincident Economic Index (CEI). The shaded bars...
Mortgage Rates Jump After Iran Attack
Mortgage rates slipped back above the 6% threshold after the Iran attack, with the 30‑year fixed climbing to 6.12%—a 13‑basis‑point jump. Ten‑year Treasury yields rose nine basis points, and mortgage‑backed‑security prices fell, feeding the rate increase. Simultaneously, oil prices spiked...
Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Higher in December
Private residential construction spending rose 1.5 % in December 2025, driven by gains in single‑family builds and home‑improvement projects. Single‑family construction increased 1.6 % month‑over‑month but remains 3.6 % below a year earlier, while multifamily spending edged up 0.1 % for a seventh straight...
ISM Prices Hit 70.5, Steel and Aluminum Costs Surge
ISM prices surged by 11.5 pts to 70.5, highest since Jun 2022. ISM said higher px for steel & alumin drove px index. That is unsurprising & has been evident in PPI data since Liberation Day. For manufacturers, the cost...
Measuring AI's Real Impact on Work and the Economy
Stanford economist Nick Bloom presented new empirical evidence on AI adoption and its effect on jobs and productivity. By merging firm‑level surveys, payroll records, and real‑time usage data, his team quantified how generative AI is being deployed across industries. The...
U.S. Retail Sales Up in October 2025, Building Materials Sector Sees Decline
U.S. Census Bureau reports October 2025 retail sales rose 2.2% year‑over‑year. Thirteen states and the District of Columbia posted positive changes, with New York leading at a 6.1% increase. Building‑materials and garden‑equipment dealers fell 5.4% YoY, while West Virginia saw a 16.1%...
Oil Shock Threatens Inflation, Yields, Market Deleveraging
Markets are in risk off mode but NOT full panic YET 📉 $SPX $ES $NQ down 🛢️ $CL surging 🥇 $GC up YET 💵 $DXY strong 📈 $VIX rising Ras Tanura attacked. Oil supply at risk. Iran escalating. If oil keeps climbing, inflation comes back fast. If...
Macro Cycle Shift Triggers Broad Market Re‑rating After AI Boom
Maybe, just maybe, there is a cyclical component to the past 5 months of underperformance in the largest names and momentum factors. A turn in the macro cycle usually leads to a turn in market leadership. We went 3 years...
Market Outlook for the Week of 2nd-6th March
The week of March 2‑6 is packed with macro releases, including Eurozone, UK and US manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone CPI flash estimates, Australian Q4 GDP, and a full slate of US labor market data. Analysts expect the ISM manufacturing PMI to dip...
US Strike on Iran Could End Low‑oil Price Relief
Low oil prices for much of the past year have helped cool inflation & given Trump license to tout more affordable prices at the pump. But if there was one scenario most likely to upset that trend, it was a...
ISM Miss Could Cool Yields, Boost Growth Stocks
March 2, 2026 Economic Events : 0945 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.2 | Prior 51.2 1000 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.7 | Prior 52.6 1000 – ISM Manufacturing Prices: Exp 60.6 | Prior 59.0 1130 – ATL Fed GDPNow (Q1):...
Jobs Report Collides With Iran War In Pivotal Week
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February posted a solid gain of 210,000 jobs, nudging the unemployment rate down to 3.6%. The report arrived amid heightened geopolitical tension following the weekend assassination that sparked an Iran‑Israel conflict. Investors grappled with strong labor...
Middle East Headlines Dominate Market over Weekly Data
🚨 TRADERS ALERT 🚨 📊 What to Watch This Week 🗓️ Mon: Iran war fallout + ISM Manufacturing 🗓️ Tue: Fed speakers 🗓️ Wed: ADP + ISM Services 🗓️ Thu: Jobless Claims 🗓️ Fri: NFP + Retail Sales + more Fed speak But make no mistake -...
Oil Surges 8‑9% as Gasoline Climbs, Yields Steady
Oil jumping to 8-9% gains this afternoon.. gasoline futures up 12 cents. US stocks ~unch with the 10yr 3bps off the HoD.. now near 4.04% https://t.co/XkTx1P5k8G
Mortgage Rates Drop a Year
BACK TO A 6-HANDLE The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.12% Same day last year: 6.74% ------------------ 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.06% Spread today: 206 bps
One in Five California Home Sales Are
California’s housing market is officially a landed gentry system. 🏠 New data from the Wall Street Journal: 1 in 5 of CA home transfers are now inheritances—double the US average. Does CA need to end Prop 13 to save the American Dream?...
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$TNX Monthly. Another bounce off 4% (40 on this chart) for Rates on 10-Year Note. Long-term continues multi-year narrowing triangle. https://t.co/gUtiLgqcs9
10-Year Treasury Yield Volatility Reverses Haven Trade
10-Year US Treasury Yield Flipflops, Spikes by 14 Basis Points to 4.07%, after Plunging to 3.93%, amid Massive Volatility. It undid more than the entire haven trade that had started on Thursday and blew through the hot PPI inflation on Friday https://t.co/mjFPIIuVi8...
2% Inflation Won’t Trigger 3% Mortgage Rates
2% inflation won't lead to 3% mortgage rates with the Fed at neutral policy. https://t.co/TpEKz1u8Cu
US Manufacturing Grows, Input Costs Surge to 2022 Levels
"US manufacturing expanded in February but input prices soared at the fastest pace since 2022, stoking fears of an inflation resurgence even before this weekend’s attacks on Iran." https://t.co/eB5YwfWkhb https://t.co/qeDvw5frvv
ISM Manufacturing Prices Misleading; Soft CPI Ahead
Some focus given to ISM Manufacturing Prices back in 70. In my opinion very misleading for now (and solely based on energy). But the jury is obviously out. I expect a couple of incredibly soft CPI reports coming up.
Memory Shortage Persists in ISM Manufacturing Survey
Memory shortage reported back to back months in the ISM Manufacturing Survey. I suspect this will be with us for a while.... https://t.co/RUpjKtiOJ6
Broad Market Breadth Improves, Favoring Value and Cyclicals
Second strong ISM NO print in a row. I'm not bullish, I'm BROADish. We see macro and micro breadth improving into 2027. Benefits to value, cyclicals, active management. https://t.co/geofWJYULy
Core Inflation Hits Highest Since Early 2024
CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest...
Ten-Year Yields Rise Above 4% Amid Brief Conflict Reaction
Ten-year treasury yields are back above 4%. Very short-lived reaction to the conflict in Middle East. https://t.co/CSDtKBWAFO
Jobs, Sales Data May Confirm Fed Rate Path Amid Tensions
Geopolitical shocks meet key labor and retail data this week. February jobs and January sales could seal the Fed's rate outlook amid Middle East tensions. 🟢 Open https://t.co/NUBk2v4rcI
Oil Prices Set to Drop, Fueling Roaring 2020s
YARDENI: “.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring...
Modest Payroll Gains, Slight Un
NFP, Retail Sales Fri GS thinks +45k headline payrolls, +45k private, UR ticks up to 4.4% +0.5% Jan core Retail Sales https://t.co/EbcNES5A55
Foreign Investors Pour $1.55 Trillion Into USD, Defying “Sell America” Myths
Foreign investors poured a net $1.55 TRILLION into USD assets last year, up 31.4% from 2024. The oft repeated “Sell America” and “End of King Dollar” narratives don’t align with the facts. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the...