Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
Home builders surveyed by NAHB/Wells Fargo evaluated 14 long‑term forces that could shape housing demand over the next decade. They identified five risks—government debt, declining fertility, long‑term inflation, falling marriage rates, and energy costs—as likely to weigh on industry health. At the same time, builders see upside from an aging housing stock, work‑from‑home trends, artificial intelligence, and modular or panelized construction. The survey percentages range from 61% to 82% for the most salient risks and opportunities.
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
CPA Business Executives Have Renewed Optimism About the U.S. Economy
CPA executives showed a notable lift in optimism about the U.S. economy in Q1 2026, with 39% expressing a positive outlook—up from 28% a quarter earlier. Confidence in their own firms also rose, reaching 47% versus 41% in Q4 2025, and 55%...
Fed Rate‑cut Odds Dip as ECB Hike Odds Surge
Everyone is talking about ECB rate hike odds by Dec spiking to 60% from 20% BUT Fed Fund futures show less chance of 25bp cut in June than a week ago (before the Iran strikes) When do you think the Federal Reserve...
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index shows a modest uptick in affordability in Q4 2025, with a median‑priced new home requiring 34 % of a typical family’s income and an existing home 34 % as well. Low‑income households still face severe strain, needing...
AI Boosts Productivity, Surpassing Pre‑Pandemic Forecasts
Are we finally seeing AI in the productivity data? A big upward revision to earlier data and strong Q4 bring us 2.2% above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Annual rates: 1 year: 2.8% 2 years: 2.5% 6 years: 2.2%
Current Cycle Productivity Hits Long‑Term 2.2% Benchmark
"The 2.2-percent annualized rate of nonfarm business productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is higher than the 1.5-percent rate of the previous business cycle, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019, and...
“New Regime” Of Lower Jobless Claims Continues - a Good Sign (but for Geopolitical Idiocy)
Weekly jobless claims data showed initial filings unchanged at 213,000, while the four‑week moving average slipped to 215,750. Year‑over‑year, initial claims fell 4.9% and the moving‑average declined 4.7%, signaling a continued “new regime” of lower claims that has persisted for...
Wealth Tax Could Generate $4.4 Trillion for Social Programs
Backers project, based on Forbes’ billionaires list, that a new wealth tax would raise $4.4 trillion over 10 years for childcare, housing, and a $ 3,000-per-person check for many Americans. https://t.co/6EYBhzxmZP
UST Funding Strain Grows as 30‑Year Swap Spread Hits
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr
What Makes America Strong?
In 2025 the United States recorded a negative net migration rate as legal immigration was sharply curtailed, a trend that economists warn will dampen economic growth. President Donald Trump has framed this demographic shift as part of a broader “Golden...
Oracle to Slash Thousands of Jobs in $1.6B AI‑driven Restructuring
Oracle Plans Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of AI Cash Crunch “In September @Oracle disclosed in a filing it was planning its largest-ever restructuring, which will cost as much as $1.6B in the current fiscal year ending May, incl severance...
Fed Cuts Rates, yet 10-Year Yields Climb
since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
Challenger Report: February Cuts Plunge, YTD Hiring Falls 56%
U.S. employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February, a 55% drop from January and 72% lower than February 2025. Year‑to‑date cuts total 156,742, the lowest Jan‑Feb figure since 2022 but still the fifth‑highest since 2009. While overall cuts fell, sectors...
Four Indicators Hint Upside Surprise on US Jobs
EVERYONE'S BEARISH ON NFP - THEY MIGHT BE WRONG ⚠️4 leading indicators say the US jobs number could surprise to upside Meanwhile $NQ $ES are bleeding and $CL is surging. Here's my breakdown of it all👇 https://t.co/tPjJsIC76Y
US Stocks Maintain Record 15-Year Outperformance Stretch
Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...
Bond Traders See Increasing Chance Of No Fed Cuts This Year
Bond options traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. The probability of a no‑cut scenario rose to 25% by Wednesday, up from 17% before the Iran‑Israel conflict escalated. Higher oil prices from the Middle‑East...
Iran Conflict Won’t Boost Dollar as Rate Gap Narrows
Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish....
Rising Oil Prices Force Fed to Pause, Trim 2026 Cuts
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
Mortgage rates slipped further in February, with the 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage averaging 6.05% and briefly dipping below the 6% mark, while the 15‑year rate fell to 5.43%. The 10‑year Treasury yield held near 4.18% for most of the month before...
US Economy Gains Momentum Across Services, Manufacturing, Auto, Small‑Biz Hiring
Some recent data: * ISM services best since Aug '22 * ISM manufacturing >50 two months in row after years < 50 * Auto sales were better than expected * ADP best in 7 months and most of the jobs came from small...
Trump’s Policies Dent Approval, Economy Stays Resilient
President Trump’s disruptive policies have left some dents, including serious damage to his approval rating, but by the biggest readings of its health, the U.S. economy largely keeps absorbing what he throws at it. My latest column: https://t.co/7lpKP39teh
Why Your Income Isn’t Growing (Video)
The United States is experiencing a prolonged slowdown in real income growth, eroding the optimism that once characterized the post‑war era. Declining private investment rates are identified as the primary engine behind this stagnation, limiting productivity gains and wage increases....
Health Insurance Spikes Stall Wage Growth Amid Inflation
Companies Report Raging Inflation, Except in Wages & Rents. Double-digit increases in employee health insurance costs hold down wage increases https://t.co/hhJssjhbRm https://t.co/MchphaLdWf
Homebuilders Cut Starts, Offer Incentives Amid Low‑Ball Offers
Atlanta Fed Beige Book: “Homebuilders pulled back on housing starts and utilized incentives to shrink speculative inventory. Some builders reported home buyers shopping around for the best deals and often presented “low-ball” offers. This is especially true in the entry-level...
Missouri House Panel Advances Plan to Phase Out State’s Income Tax, But Hurdles Remain
Missouri’s House Commerce Committee advanced a constitutional amendment that would let voters approve a plan to phase out the state’s 4.7% individual income tax in favor of higher sales and use taxes. The proposal, championed by Gov. Mike Kehoe and...
Mortgage Rates Hover Near 5% as Jobs Data Looms
Mortgage rates have eased back toward the 5s today, potentially due to oil transport assurances from the President. The 30-year fixed is just 8 bps away from a 5-handle again, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Jobs report on Friday...
Trump Officially Nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair as Iran War Complicates Path for Rate Cuts
President Donald Trump formally nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, aiming for quicker interest‑rate cuts. Warsh, known for advocating balance‑sheet reduction and lower rates, faces a skeptical FOMC amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli...
Mortgage Rates Nearing Sub‑6% Despite Week’s Volatility
Even with all the madness of this week #mortgagerates are almost back below 6% #realestate #housing #chartdaddy #mortgagespreads
US Activity Was Surging Ahead of Military Action
U.S. ISM surveys show the economy accelerating in early 2026, with the February services index climbing to 56.1 and overall business activity reaching 59.9, the strongest pace since May 2024. New orders and order backlogs also surged, supporting a projection...
Goldilocks Makes Surprise Cameo In US Services Sector
The Institute for Supply Management released a surprisingly strong services‑sector PMI on March 4, showing the index climb to 55.2, well above the 53.5 consensus. New orders surged 4.1% month‑over‑month and employment added roughly 150,000 jobs, underscoring robust demand. Analysts dubbed...
EPI’s Updated Family Budget Calculator Shows that Higher Minimum Wages Are Needed in States Like Oklahoma to Afford the Cost...
The Economic Policy Institute’s updated 2025 Family Budget Calculator reveals that the federal‑state minimum wage of $7.25 is far below the hourly earnings needed to cover basic expenses in every U.S. county, with Oklahoma exemplifying the shortfall. In Oklahoma’s cheapest...
US Economy's Quiet Bullish Turn Amid Bearish Sentiment
Everyone is getting increasingly bearish here, and while I understand the concern, the macro backdrop is improving a lot, especially in the US - that we can measure live with Nowcast IQ There is a very very underappreciated comeback in the...
Abercrombie & Fitch Forecasts Muted Annual Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Abercrombie & Fitch announced it will factor a 15 percent U.S. tariff into its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting net‑sales growth of 3‑5 percent and earnings per share between $10.20 and $11. The company estimates the tariff will shave about 70 basis points...
Sanders, Khanna Introduce Wealth Tax Bill Targeting Billionaires
Senators Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna introduced the Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act, proposing a 5 percent annual wealth tax on the 938 U.S. billionaires who hold $8.2 trillion collectively. The tax would raise about $4.4 trillion, funding $3,000 direct payments...
Fed Likely to Hold Rates, May Tighten if Inflation Persists
NEW: Beth Hammack of @ClevelandFed tells @nytimes that with inflation too high and rates at neutral, the Fed should be on hold for "quite some time." The next move may also not necessarily be down: "If we don’t see inflation...
Tech Leads Early; Jobs/Services Data Drives Volatility
March 4, 2026 📊 Insight: Jobs + services data = volatility window 8:15–10:00. Watching tech strength early with $NVDA/$MSTR bid. Services miss could pressure risk. $AVGO earnings tonight key for semis. Patience at the open — let data hit first. 0815 – ADP...
Indian Rupee Tumbles to a New Record Low Amid the US-Iran War. What's Next?
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as the US‑Iran conflict sparked safe‑haven buying of the dollar and pushed oil prices higher. Higher oil costs and the realization that U.S. rate cuts may be delayed have lifted inflation...
Delays in Tariff Refunds Cost Taxpayers $700 Million Monthly
"Tariff refund delays could cost U.S. taxpayers $700 million a month in interest, report finds" https://t.co/MHgXnrl4vk
Russia's GDP Shrinks, Inflation Claims Unmasked
It was actually contracting before, they just lied about the inflation numbers. But nice to see it's contracting so much that they can't cover it up anymore. 🔥🔥🔥
Trump’s Unaffordable Midterm Stimulus
The Congressional Budget Office released a stark outlook showing U.S. deficits expanding by nearly $1.5 trillion and the debt‑to‑GDP ratio surpassing 115 percent. President Donald Trump is proposing a fresh stimulus package—accelerated infrastructure grants, tax rebates, and expanded credit for small firms—designed...
Energy-Driven Inflation Drowns US‑Iran Conflict, Fed Cut Hopes Slump
One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
U.S. Gasoline Demand Drops as Per‑Capita Use Plummets
U.S. Gasoline Demand Fell Further amid Long-Term Structural Shift: Plunging Per-Capita Consumption. Even as miles driven rose to a record. https://t.co/8h6llBxdie https://t.co/2aI68HuTGs
10-Year Yield Stagnates
10-year yield action this week 🥱 considering all that has happened, maybe jobs Friday changes that https://t.co/30TFujFiHs
US Services Surge to Highest ISM Since Oct 2024
US Service sector activity further accelerated in February according to the ISM data. The 56.1 reading was an unexpected improvement and highest since Oct 2024. The employment and price components also improved (higher and lower respectively). Good US economic update https://t.co/Pvofc3DgPk
Liquidity Buffers Intended for Crises Are Being Hoarded
Great point in @SecScottBessent speech: Post-2008 liquidity buffers were designed to be spent in a crisis. Instead, they are treated as untouchable minimums and so banks hoard liquid assets rather than deploy them, making stress worse. (1/3) @vtg2 @BrendanPedersen @amacker...
Trump Trade War Slashes US Exports to China 19%
This is the big one, MUST READ Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown https://t.co/5eQUPlo1xx
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
Mortgage Demand Jumps 11% as Rates Near Four‑year Low
Weekly #Mortgage demand surged 11% higher last week, as rates sat near 4-year low https://t.co/2HClawHnMz @MBAMortgage