No New Details on Powell‑Trump Tension in Recent US Economy Coverage
A review of eight recent news items reveals no substantive reporting on a direct conflict between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and former President Donald Trump. While Trump appears in unrelated headlines, specifics about monetary‑policy disputes were not disclosed.
Inflation Stays Hot, Jobs Data Disappoints, Macro Unchanged
PCE, CPI & PPI were running hot even before the Iran war’s oil shock, writes @JohnFMauldin @DavidBahnsen says Feb jobs data was “surprisingly bad” Mauldin sees the familiar muddle-through story with AI capex, services & manufacturing I see an "unsurprisingly bad" macro https://t.co/EGIOgUMGxc #Inflation...
10‑Year Yield Near 4.4% Sparks Epic Week Ahead
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
‘March Madness’ for Markets Too
In this brief episode, Andrew Sheets draws a parallel between March Madness basketball and the sudden shift in market narratives caused by the Iran conflict and a potential oil shock. He outlines how, after a period of strong economic signals—low...
2‑Year Treasury Yields Surge to Highest Since July
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
Iran War Drives Market
Due to the war in Iran and the resulting inflationary effects, the market is now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Fed this year (in contrast to the previously forecast two rate cuts). Moreover, the market is now forecasting a...
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5‑3.75% as Oil Shock Fuels Higher Inflation Forecast
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11‑1 to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.5‑3.75% range, raised its 2026 inflation projection to 2.7%, and nudged GDP growth to 2.4% as Middle‑East conflict spikes oil prices and job gains stall....
US Bond Yields Surge to Highest Levels Since 2023
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
Trump's Iran War Costs Outpace Tariff Revenue
Putting the fiscal cost of the Iran war in context. $200 billion > $194.9 billion, which means that Trump is planning on spending more on the Iran war than he took in with his tariffs which raised tons of revenue....
Wholesale Prices Rise Sharply in February, Driven by Food Costs
Wholesale prices for fresh and dry vegetables surged nearly 50% in February, propelling the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final‑demand goods up 1.1% month‑over‑month—the fastest rise since August 2023. Overall wholesale food prices climbed 2.4%, with egg prices jumping over...
Fed’s Waller Urges Caution, Holds Rates Amid Iran Conflict
"Caution is warranted," Waller tells @steveliesman on Friday after voting with the majority at the Fed this week to hold rates steady as the Iran war upends the economic outlook. "It doesn’t mean that I’m going to stay put for the...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps to Six‑Month High in March
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its March manufacturing diffusion index climbed to 18.1, a six‑month high and well above economists' 10.0 forecast. The surge suggests a surprising rebound in regional manufacturing activity amid broader economic slowdown concerns.
Feds Waller: If Oil Stays High for Months on End, at some Point It Bleeds Into Inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that a prolonged oil price surge could seep into core inflation, making any shock more than a transitory blip. He noted that while structural inflation is edging toward the Fed’s 2% target, tariffs are...
Fed Governor Waller Balks at Rate Cut Amid Inflation Worries
Fed governor Chris Waller to CNBC's Steve Liesman: I was ready to dissent for a rate cut after the February jobs report came out. But the inflation picture is looking worse and has become more of a concern because the Strait...
Fed Rate Cut Now Expected in October 2027
That is one looong blue line. A month ago, Fed fund futures were pricing in the next cut as June. This June. Now it's October '27 https://t.co/HCElEgtrLE
Steady Today, Uncertain Tomorrow: Iran War Tests US Resilience
The Iran war has so far left the US economy largely intact, with the Atlanta Fed nowcasting a 2.1% annualized Q1 GDP rise and the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index at 2.6%, suggesting stable activity through mid‑March. While global oil...
Markets Flip to Rate Hikes as US Inflation Spikes
Yup. Market pricing in 2-3 rate hikes for ECB and BoE How many for the Fed?!
Markets See Fed Hikes, Hormuz Shock Fuels Inflation Risk
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
WATCH: The 35% Recession Warning Markets Are Ignoring — with Ed Yardeni
In this episode, host Scott Yalloway recounts his surreal experience at the Vanity Fair Oscars after‑party before diving into a focused interview with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. Yardeni explains why his team raised the probability of a U.S....
Fed Cuts Spark Long‑term Rate Divergence, Now at 5%
When the Fed cutting cycle started in 2024, 20Y rates quickly moved to 4%. And after 175bp of cuts, the 30Y rates is back up to 5%. The latest wiggle is obviously the Iran effect. But the divergence is arguably 2 years...
TNX Breaks Triangle, Bullish Spike Ahead
$TNX Monthly. Head-fake lower last month. Surge higher this month. At apex of multi-year triangle. This is ideal bullish setup for rates on 10-Year to explode higher https://t.co/aCdWZY5Kd9
February Retail Sales Reveal Moderate Gains
Retail sales in February rose 0.28% from January and surged 6.24% year‑over‑year, marking the fifth straight month of monthly gains. Over the first two months, total sales were up 6.04% YoY and core sales climbed 5.76%. Growth was broad‑based, with...
US Economy Endures Decade‑Plus Shocks, No Recession
In the 2020s the US economy has survived: A pandemic Supply chain shocks 9% inflation 0% --> 5% interest rates Tariffs War Oil price spike We haven't had a credit cycle or real recession in 17 years https://t.co/eXayk77G0L
Bessent's No‑Term Debt Plan: Mixed Results So Far
So how has the plan by @SecScottBessent to not term out the debt and keep rolling bills worked out?
Map: States Where Electricity Costs Went Up the Most in 2025
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that residential electricity bills rose nearly 7 percent in 2025, double the overall inflation rate. Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee used federal data to show that while New Jersey, Indiana and Illinois saw price...
Saving Rate Plummets, Signaling Impending Economic Break
Careful when core<headline. It’s a household SOS warning something is going to break as the saving rate (an AVERAGE hugely weighted towards flushest & wealthiest) fell from 5.2% in Q1 ‘25 to 4.0% in Q4, a 1-in-5 postwar event per...
Prefer QT and Term‑Premium Expansion Over Fed Rate Hikes
Fwiw I still prefer restarting QT and solving the uneven distribution of reserves and killing inflation through term premium expansion vs hiking fed funds https://t.co/tp7owr8gxQ
US Federal Debt Becoming ‘Alarmingly Unsustainable’ as Iran War Fuels Spending: Analysts
U.S. sovereign debt surged to $39 trillion, a level analysts deem alarmingly unsustainable, as war‑related spending on Iran adds pressure. The debt rose $2 trillion in just a few months, with Biden’s administration issuing $4.7 trillion of new 10‑year debt since 2021. Experts...
Passthrough Effects Grow over Time, yet Hard to See
Waller’s not wrong about passthrough effects. They vary over time and are likely to be stronger the longer this shock goes on That said, the wise course is to look through them. It just turns out to be really hard in...
Inflation Spikes Fast; Real Stability only when Jobs Slip
inflation shows up on your screen much quicker than financial stability tremors and layoffs. hawk talk out of the gate is easy; hawk walk when UnE is up a percentage point and rising, not so much
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
Fed Must Cut Rates as Oil‑Driven Recession Looms
Now powell and Fed will be forced to do an emergency rate cut and be late as high oil prices start slowing down economy into recession.
FOMC Hawkishness Index Surges After Powell’s Press Conference
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Rising Gasoline Prices and Their Impact on US Inflation and Economy
U.S. regular gasoline prices jumped nearly 90 cents to about $3.80 per gallon, while diesel rose $1.40 to just over $5, according to AAA data. The surge could cost the average household more than $600 in extra fuel expenses this...
Zero Break-Even Employment Rate Fails, Waller Warns
You don’t SAY. This zero bound fails miserably too On @CNBC Waller said research suggesting that the break-even rate for employment is ~zero is another challenge for assessing labor-market strength “My brain understands the math, but I can’t get through my gut...
Trump Should Keep Powell Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns
Warsh will be out hawkes this year; Trump might as well keep Powell as Fed chair until the inflation story changes. No point in criticizing your guy for rate cuts now.
US Household Net Worth Climbs $2.2 Trillion to Fresh Record
U.S. household net worth surged to a record $184.1 trillion in Q4, up $2.2 trillion from the previous quarter. The jump was powered by a $1.6 trillion rise in equity holdings as the S&P 500 rallied on AI‑driven earnings optimism. At the same time,...
Waller Warns Oil Could Eventually Lift Core Inflation
Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"
Bank Lending Shifts: NBFIs Grow 60%, Corporates
Since 2019, bank lending to non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) has grown by nearly 60% vs only about 20% to non-financial corporations. Divergence has widened since mid-2022 when corporate lending stagnated while NBFI lending continued to rise steadily https://t.co/QEUhoq4feU
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Iran War and Oil Surge Push Rate‑Cut Outlook Out
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11‑1 to keep its policy range at 3.5%‑3.75%, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting for a 25‑basis‑point cut. Heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict and a jump in crude oil to above $108 a barrel...
Selective Data Manipulation Undermines Economic Policy
The Weekly Quill — The Princely Scientists — The Power of Selectively Deceptive Data Sign in now to read the latest from @dimartinobooth and Jonathan Basile of #QIResearch https://t.co/r8mkpVrloi #federalreserve #powell #economy #dimartinobooth https://t.co/BJ2zstFVCj
New Home Prices Fall, Inventory Peaks Since 2009
Prices of New Single-Family Homes Drop Further, Inventory of Completed New Homes for Sale Highest since 2009. Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come https://t.co/xfMYbwdtVK https://t.co/ImauhfwDWA
Debt Surged $2.8 Trillion Since President’s Inauguration
“.. Since the President’s inauguration last year, national debt has climbed by around $2.8 trillion.” @TIME https://t.co/mLgUsjkGpd https://t.co/cCYSRTcnd9
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% Amid Rising Rates
US new home sales collapsed by a stunning 17.6% MoM in January, the most in 13 years. If that’s not bad enough, since the US-Israeli war in Iran began, mortgage rates have surged. TRUMP'S IN TROUBLE. https://t.co/He7ZCDPq2p
Market Signals No Near-Term Rate Cuts, Slightly Higher Policy Outlook
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
Markets Flip: From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
Oil Must Hit $138 for Recession Odds over 50%
How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war....
US Debt Surges to $39T, Bond Market Turns Edgy
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY
Fed Underestimates Pre‑war Inflation, Mislabels Risks
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks https://t.co/NIh6rJDQhK Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things". https://t.co/xbrposAsbQ
January New‑home Sales Plunge to Lowest Since 2022
Temporary Freeze or Deeper Chill? New home sales fell sharply in January to 587K (vs. 722K expected), marking the slowest pace since Oct 2022 and the steepest monthly drop since 2013. https://t.co/W9Fwrwtvjb