America’s War, America’s Recession
The United States’ decision to go to war in Iran is poised to unleash a sharp energy and food‑price shock, compounding existing inflationary pressures. Disruptions to Middle‑East oil flows could lift gasoline and heating costs, while import‑tariff policies already stoke price growth. Simultaneously, the U.S. credit market is strained, equity valuations are stretched, and public finances remain unsustainable, leaving the economy vulnerable to higher interest rates. Together, these dynamics raise the risk of a deeper recession than previously anticipated.
FCC Blocks Imports of Foreign‑Made Consumer Routers, Shaking US Tech Supply Chain
The Federal Communications Commission announced a ban on importing foreign‑made consumer wireless routers, citing national‑security concerns. The move threatens to upend the U.S. consumer‑electronics supply chain, prompting industry alarm and debate over the agency’s authority.
War‑Driven Fed Outlook Ends Rate‑Cut Expectations
Despite investors’ previous hopes for rate cuts, Trump’s war has worsened the Fed outlook — with markets now not expecting further cuts this year (or next). My @morningjoe Chart
S&P Nears Selling Climax Amid Deep Valuation Drop
In the table below, we see that the drawdown in the S&P 500 has now reached 7.6%, with breadth reaching moderately oversold levels. That drawdown masks a far bigger decline in valuations, with the trailing P/E down 20%. The MSCI EAFE and...
February 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
Core CPI excluding shelter has hovered near a 2% annual rate for almost four years, while rent inflation is finally showing signs of moderation. The article argues that continued new home construction is essential to keep rent growth in check....
Low Unemployment, High Costs: Economy Feels Anything But Strong
They keep saying “low unemployment” and “inflation is under control” Meanwhile eggs are still $7, rent just jumped another $300, and my friends are getting ghosted on 200+ job apps. How is this a “strong economy” when my grocery bill feels like...
Oil Prices Surge to $98 a Barrel as US Delays Iran Strikes, Stoking Inflation Fears
Benchmark Brent crude rose over 2% to $98.25 a barrel and WTI jumped 3.4% to $91.09 after President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran. The rally revives concerns that higher energy costs could lift U.S. inflation and pressure the...
Why US and UK Monetary Policy Responses to the Iran War Differ
The article examines why the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have taken divergent monetary‑policy paths in response to the Iran‑Israel conflict. While the Fed has kept policy tight, emphasizing inflation control and using liquidity facilities to cushion market...
Powell Reveals ‘Concern’ About Job Creation in America Right Now
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the Fed’s policy committee is increasingly concerned about a stagnating U.S. labor market. The February jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs and revisions that erased gains from December and January, leaving...
Fuel Price Surge Echoes 2008, 2022, Threatens Equities
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
Rising Gas Prices Hurt 55% of Americans, Undermining Trump
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 55% of Americans report that rising gas prices have negatively impacted their finances. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/kJMYHDcmB6
Fire at Valero's Port Arthur Refinery Sparks U.S. Gasoline and Jet Fuel Concerns
A massive fire erupted at Valero Energy's Port Arthur, Texas refinery on Monday, disrupting a key Gulf Coast fuel hub. The incident, linked to a heater‑unit malfunction, has regulators and traders watching for possible impacts on gasoline and jet fuel...
IWM Stress Test Shows Economy May Not Be Fine
Small caps aren’t ‘early cycle’. $IWM is a stress test. If it can’t lead, the economy isn’t as fine as the index level suggests. https://t.co/Cwur5o8DPZ
Supply Pressure Keeps Rates Elevated Amid Fed Pause
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase...
U.S. Workers' Job Market Confidence Plummets to Historic Low, Gallup Finds
Gallup’s October‑November survey reveals U.S. workers’ confidence in finding a good job has fallen to a historic low, with just 28% saying now is a good time to look. The 42‑point plunge marks the sharpest slide in four years and...
Rates Aren’t High—History Shows They’ve Just Risen
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
Americans Despise Inflation yet Embrace Its Causes
Investing Quote of the Day: “I continue to believe that the American people have a love–hate relationship with inflation. They hate inflation but love everything that causes it.” - William E. Simon https://t.co/eO3YmqPZEG
The Great Easing Pause: Treasury Strategy in a Wartime Economy
The Federal Reserve paused its easing cycle in March, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50‑3.75% after three consecutive quarter‑point cuts. This “hawkish hold” arrives amid a wartime‑style energy shock that could lift headline inflation by 0.8 percentage points and...
Deutsche Bank Predicts US CPI Near 4% in May
Deutsche Bank forecasts US CPI to hit 3.81% in April and 4.02% in May. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/R7pCnJYmkg
Retail Sales Expected to Grow 4.4% This Year
The National Retail Federation, partnered with Oxford Economics, forecasts U.S. retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026, reaching about $5.6 trillion. This rate outpaces the ten‑year pre‑pandemic average growth of 3.6%, indicating renewed consumer momentum after the pandemic dip. The outlook,...
Fed Rate Outlook Shifts Higher Yet Remains Dovish
BofA: Naming the 2026 dots The distribution of dots shifted higher in March, but the voting members still lean dovish and expect to ease this year. https://t.co/Qklr1A2um1
How the Economy Would Weather Private-Credit Defaults Rising to Financial Crisis-Like Levels
Goldman Sachs’ latest research argues that even if private‑credit defaults surge to 10%—a level seen during the 2008‑09 financial crisis—the macroeconomic fallout would be modest, trimming U.S. GDP by only 20‑50 basis points. The sector, with roughly $1.7 trillion in leveraged...
BlackRock CEO Warns AI Boom Could Widen US Wealth Gap
BlackRock chief Larry Fink warned that the accelerating AI boom could exacerbate wealth inequality in the United States, flagging systemic financial risks. He linked the warning to broader concerns about energy use, tokenisation and market stability, underscoring the need for...
Toyota Commits $1 Billion to Upgrade Two U.S. Plants Amid $10 Billion Expansion Plan
Toyota announced a $1 billion investment—$800 million for its Georgetown, Kentucky plant and $200 million for Princeton, Indiana—to expand production of the Camry, RAV4 and Grand Highlander. The spending is the first tranche of a broader $10 billion U.S. expansion that could reshape domestic...
Tariffs Inflate Costs, Threaten Jobs; Need Pro‑Growth Policies
Tariff taxes are raising costs for businesses and squeezing workers. As Governor, I want policies that strengthen U.S. manufacturing, lower costs, and create stable jobs—not add uncertainty and expenses. https://sentinelcolorado.com/nation-world/nation/trumps-tariffs-are-hurting-american-manufacturers-instead-of-helping-them/
How Democrats Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Tax Cuts
Democratic lawmakers such as Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Sen. Cory Booker are proposing sweeping income‑tax cuts that would eliminate federal taxes for earners up to roughly $46,000 and $75,000 respectively, while pairing those cuts with a surtax on incomes...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 20, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third consecutive week, with the 30‑year rate up 0.06 percentage points and the 10‑year climbing 0.11 points to 4.39%. The 3‑year Treasury held steady at 3.90%. The upward movement reflects market expectations of sustained...
College Graduates See Rising Unemployment Amid AI Boom
If Generative AI is empowering people? Why are college educated graduates having a harder time finding employment? Source: a16z via Economic Innovation Group, BLS Data. The unemployment rate for young, college-educated workers has deteriorated more so than the field, and...
PMI Slump Signals Looming Stagflation Despite High Inflation
Flash PMIs drop Tuesday. First real data read since oil hit $112. In my experience, the PMIs are the most honest early signal of what's actually happening in the economy. If manufacturing and services both print below 50 while inflation expectations stay...
Fed Continues to Hold Rates Steady
The Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75%, extending the pause announced in December 2025. Officials cited elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and the potential impact of Middle‑East tensions on U.S. growth....
U.S. Construction Spending Drops in January, Hinting at Housing Slowdown
U.S. construction spending slipped in January, marking the first decline in the metric this year and signaling weakening demand in the housing sector. The drop adds pressure on GDP forecasts and could influence Federal Reserve policy as the economy navigates...
January 2026 Construction Spending Slightly Declines Amid Upward Revisions
"Construction spending during January 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,190.4 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised December estimate" https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/current/index.html This below the consensus forecast for an increase, however the 2 pervious months were revised up.
Long-Term Treasuries Turn Risk‑On, Driven by Hedge‑Fund Basis Trades
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
Comparing New and Resale Prices: 4Q25
In Q4 2025 the median price of a new single‑family home was $405,300, about $9,600 lower than the $414,900 median for existing homes. This marks the third straight quarter where existing‑home prices exceed new‑home prices, a reversal of a decade‑long premium....
Steepening 10‑3 Curve Signals Shift to Cyclical Value Rally
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
Fed Rate Path Likely Unchanged Under New Chair
WSJ's @NickTimiraos discusses the awkward Fed Chair transition to come, pointing to, amongst others, the "break" and "lack of continuity". That's mostly right, subject to an important caveat: Powell last December talked up productivity gains - a core argument by...
Fed's Goolsbee Says He Could See Circumstances for Rate Hike
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he could envision the Federal Reserve raising interest rates if inflation accelerates amid the Middle‑East conflict, while also acknowledging the possibility of multiple rate cuts if price pressures ease. The Fed left policy...
December 2026 PCE Inflation Projected at 3.1%
GS: We Now Expect December 2026 Headline PCE Inflation of 3.1%, 1pp Above Our Pre-War Forecast; Both Headline and Core PCE Could Peak Higher in a More Severe Risk Scenario https://t.co/sMwHyf6s7N
Oil Shocks Fail to Stubbornly Raise Inflation Expectations
GS: Over the Past 40 Years, Even Major Oil Price Shocks Did Not Leave Long-Lasting Effects on Consumer Inflation Expectations https://t.co/8naRIKCG9F
Commodity Price Surge to Add 0.35pp Core PCE by 2026Q
GS: We Estimate That the Boost from Commodity Price Increases to Year-Over-Year Core PCE Inflation Will Peak Around 0.35pp in 2026Q4 in Our Baseline Scenario https://t.co/e4Hp5utn1j
Housing Market Unchanged Despite War, Higher Rates
No noticeable impact from the war/higher mortgage rates in the weekly housing data yet: https://t.co/f4wx5tgXQn
U.S. Faces Soft Stagflation: Stagnant Jobs, Rising Inflation
Zero net U.S. jobs added since April 2025. Oil above $90. Inflation projections raised to 2.7%. And the Fed's dot plot has the widest internal split in years. Is America already in soft stagflation? https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
Bessent Prioritizes 10-Year Treasury Over Brent Oil
"Bessent is obsessed with the 10-year. He can let the Brent Oil go up, but not the 10Y-Treasury." @perkinscr97 https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
War Hopes Nudge Fed Futures Toward Tiny Cut
The hope of a short-end to the war on Iran sees the Fed funds futures market swing back to a (small chance) of a cut this year--2 bp--. It was around 7 bp of tightening before the weekend and 61...
Small Rise in Private Credit Defaults Cuts GDP 0.1%
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Majority Predict US Recession Within the Year
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK
Fed Reacts Differently to Oil Price Shocks
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
US Stagflation Traps Fed Amid Jobs, Energy, Debt Crisis
The US economic situation is grim & simple, writes @LynAldenContact STAGFLATION Jobs have stalled, energy prices are squeezing consumers, yields are rising, and the Fed is trapped. Debt, war, and economic weakness are feeding each other now. #LynAlden #Stagflation #Recession #Oil...
2‑Year Yield Slides to Session Low, Bears Struggle
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% to Pandemic Lows
From December to January, US new home sales DROPPED by a STUNNING 17.6%. Sales were at their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. AMERICAN HOUSING MARKET = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/AMSqv9ZMsT