Some Folks Were Hired. Allegedly.
The ADP National Employment Report showed the U.S. private sector added 62,000 jobs in March, well above the 40,000 consensus estimate. Economists had forecast a modest gain, making the actual figure 22,000 higher than expected. The prior month’s ADP data were also revised upward to a 66,000‑job increase, surpassing the original February estimate. These stronger‑than‑anticipated hiring numbers contrast with the more tempered figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, underscoring a divergence between private‑sector and overall employment trends.
RSM US Financial Conditions Index Turns Negative, Slight Growth Drag
"Our RSM US Financial Conditions Index, which has been decelerating since early February, has turned negative, implying a modest drag on growth." -Joe Brusuelas, RSM
The Daily Feather — The Fifth Element
Danielle DiMartino Booth’s Daily Feather post introduces a “fifth element” in the U.S. labor market—labor‑shock capitulation—pointing to a sharp drop in quits, rising job‑insecurity metrics, and a contraction in JOLTS job openings. She argues these signals foretell a structural weakening...
Each Dollar of Debt Increases Rate Risk, Reduces Crisis Flex
From the @wsj “the safety of Treasury debt is a function of math and confidence…. There is no magic number where U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, but every tick upward leaves the government more exposed to interest-rate fluctuations and less able...
JOLTS Signals Worsening Labor Market Ahead of War
JOLTS gives us bad news on the state of the labor market BEFORE the war https://t.co/vqa0JUhY2f
Middle-Class Tax Cut Advances From Finance Committee
Senate Bill 513, approved by Connecticut's Finance Committee, would extend the federal pass‑through entity tax credit to middle‑income earners making over $50,000, offering roughly $1,100 in annual savings. The program lets participants voluntarily reduce their salary in exchange for a...
Markets Rally as Trump Iran News Eclipses US Retail Sales
Trump’s Iran update vs US Retail Sales - that’s the main focus for markets today. Stocks up, dollar down, Gold firm but Oil still above $100. Here’s what to watch 👇 https://t.co/gU5QbERzUH
Federal Shutdown Slashes Q4 GDP Growth to 1.4% Annualized
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that a 43‑day federal shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, 2025, pulled fourth‑quarter GDP growth to a 1.4% annualized rate, far below the 4.4% pace in Q3. The slowdown reflects a loss of roughly 1.5...
Anticipating April 10 (March CPI Release)
The Cleveland Federal Reserve nowcast shows headline CPI rising 0.84% month‑over‑month in March, driven largely by sharp increases in gasoline and diesel prices. Weekly gasoline prices are up 26.2% year‑over‑year, while diesel has surged 50.4% over the same period. By...
US Imports Plunge in 2025 After Trump Tariffs
The one year anniversary of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs is Thursday (April 2). This pieces asks: What happened to US imports in 2025, in light of all of those Trump tariffs? If you 💕💕💕 charts, you will want to read 👇
Job Openings Fall to 6.9 Million in February, Another Hint of Sluggish Hiring in America
U.S. job openings fell to 6.9 million in February, down from 7.2 million in January, while quits dropped to the lowest level since August 2020. Gross hires slipped to 4.85 million, the fewest since April 2020, pushing the hiring rate to 3.1 percent, also a pandemic‑era...
Iran War Threatens Trump Dream of Lower Interest Rates
The Iran‑Russia war has reignited a supply‑side shock, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields up about 35 basis points to roughly 4.30%, the steepest monthly decline since President Trump returned to the White House. The closure of the Hormuz Strait, which carries...
Job Openings Decline in February as Employers Hit Pause on Hiring
Job openings slipped to 6.9 million in February, down from 7.2 million in January, while total hires fell to 4.8 million, pushing the hiring rate to a low 3.1 %—the weakest since April 2020. Quits edged lower to 3.1 million and layoffs held steady at 1.7 million,...
US Consumer Confidence Index Climbs to 91.8 in March
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 91.8 in March, up from a revised 91.0 in February. The modest gain suggests households remain cautiously optimistic despite lingering economic headwinds. Analysts will watch the next reading for signs...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Top $4 a Gallon, Sparking Stock Futures Rally
U.S. average gasoline prices rose above $4 a gallon for the first time in nearly four years, prompting S&P 500 futures to jump 1.1% and Nasdaq futures 1%. Traders are weighing the inflationary impact against hopes of de‑escalation in the...
Consumer Confidence Inches up Despite Iran War, Rising Gas Price
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 91.8 in March, despite the Iran‑related war driving gas prices to $4 per gallon and inflating short‑term inflation expectations to a six‑month high. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan survey showed a...
The Macroeconomic Budget and Health Care Projection Dashboard, Revisited: Can You Put the US Back on a Sustainable Path?
The American Enterprise Institute released an updated macroeconomic projection model that forecasts U.S. federal debt, deficits, and health‑care spending far exceeding CBO estimates. A new interactive dashboard lets users adjust tax rates, Social Security benefits, health‑care elasticities, and investment levels...
President Regrets Appointing Central Banker Who Defied Rate Cuts
Wild story: President appoints someone to the central bank recommended by his own finance minister. The appointee resists the president's demands to approve bigger rate cuts, and now the president says he "stupidly" followed the minister's advice, leading to "the...
Powell's Reassurance Drops Mortgage Rates Despite Oil Surge
Mortgage rates are lower today thanks to Jerome Powell. Why? Because he put fears of Fed rate hikes to bed during a Q&A session with Harvard students yesterday. Despite surging oil prices, he said “We feel like our policy’s in a...
Real US Housing Wealth Continues To Shrink
US home prices continued to fall in real terms, with the Case‑Shiller 20‑City Index posting only a 1.2% year‑over‑year gain in January, the slowest since July 2023. The broader National Index rose just 0.9% YoY, lagging the 2.4% headline CPI...
Rate‑Hike Odds Surge, Triggering Massive Market Unwind
January: everyone positioned for rate cuts. Now: hike odds above 50%. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the mechanics of unwinding a crowded consensus take months, not weeks. Every hot inflation print, every hawkish Fed signal triggers another exit from...
Republicans Have Come Up With the Worst Budgeting Idea Possibly Ever
Republican House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington is pushing a plan to fund up to $200 billion for the Iran war and stricter immigration enforcement by reviving cost‑sharing health‑care reductions. The Congressional Budget Office estimates these cuts could save $30 billion but...
Four Bond ETFs Gain Spotlight as Rate Uncertainty Persists
With the Federal Reserve’s 175‑basis‑point rate cuts since 2024 and 10‑year Treasury yields hovering around 4.4%, analysts highlight four bond ETFs—Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), Vanguard Short‑Term Corporate (VCSH), iShares TIPS (TIP) and Vanguard Intermediate‑Term Treasury (VGIT)—as leading options for...
Middle East Conflict Drives US Treasury Rally as Yields Slip 7 Bps Amid Oil Surge
Heightened risk from Iran‑related fighting sent investors into safe‑haven Treasuries, pulling the 2‑year yield down 5 basis points to 3.87% and the 10‑year to 4.36%. The rally unfolded even as Brent crude rose about 2% to over $100 per barrel,...
Interpreting Labor Signals in a High-Revision Regime
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly nonfarm payroll reports have become increasingly unreliable, with initial figures routinely overstating job growth and subsequent revisions pulling numbers down sharply. Over the past year, the amplitude of these revisions has surged, prompting concerns...
Soft Construction Labor Market Shows Decline for Open Positions
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that construction job openings fell to 202,000 in February, down from 230,000 in January and 255,000 a year earlier. Overall U.S. job openings slipped to 6.88 million, a decline from January’s 7.24 million. The...
US Hiring Rate Dives To 15-Year Low
The U.S. hiring rate has slipped to a 15‑year low, the weakest since 2009. For the eighth straight month, unemployed workers outnumbered available job openings, indicating a shift from the previously tight labor market. Monthly hires fell to roughly 150,000,...
February Hires Rate Hits Pandemic‑level Low of 3.1%
"The hires rate decreased over the month [of February 2026] to 3.1 percent. This was the lowest hires rate since April 2020 when it was also 3.1 percent." Employers only brought on as many workers (as a % of payrolls)...
The Fed Chair Just Said What AI Leaders Won't: The Models Don't Work
Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly expressed his lack of confidence in the economic models used to forecast markets, noting that no system has reliably predicted the economy. He highlighted that while large language models (LLMs) have advanced dramatically, they remain...
American Consumers Hang On, But ‘Skew Towards Pessimism’
U.S. consumer confidence rose in March, with the Conference Board index climbing to 102 and the University of Michigan sentiment index edging up to 71.5. Despite the improvement, the surveys reveal a lingering pessimism about future economic conditions, as expectations...
Chicago PMI Expands for Third Straight Month
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index fell 4.9 points to 52.8 in March, marking the third consecutive month of expansion despite missing the 54.8 forecast. A reading above 50 signals growth, but the decline suggests weakening momentum. Historically, 52.8 is lower...
U.S. Hiring Drops to 3.1%, Signaling Looming Layoffs
Yikes. The U.S. hiring rate fell to 3.1% in February, the lowest since April 2020. This is a hiring recession. And Americans are feeling it. There were notable hiring pullbacks in February in hospitality and construction. Bottom line: The job market...
Hiring Hits 10-Year Low, Labor Market Paralysis Deepens
Today’s JOLTS data highlighted the extent of the labor market paralysis that was already deepening before the Iran war. Hiring made a new 10+ year low in February excluding pandemic distortions, via @bespokeinvest https://t.co/xYctvNLqUZ
Supermarket Inflation Drops to 2.3% YoY, up 48
BofA Nielsen: Supermarket inflation fell to 2.3% YoY in March +47.9% on the 7yr stack https://t.co/Jlz9FUMWAG
Young Tech Unemployment Aligns with Overall Tech Rates
GS: Unemployment Among Young Tech Workers Has Fallen Back in Line With Unemployment for All Tech Workers https://t.co/oAVQfwTaF4
Adjusted GDP Shows US Economy Moderately Slowing in 2025
Real economists repeatedly cautioned that, bc of tariffs & DOGE (& later the shutdown), topline GDP figures could be distorted due to swings in trade flows & govt activity. So, they recommended excluding those things, and it shows a modestly...
Immigration Barely Drives U.S. Labor Productivity Gains
"In this blog post, we ask how much of the evolution in average U.S. labor productivity...can be attributed to changes in the composition of the workforce, with a particular focus on immigration. The short answer: very little." https://t.co/89nFQJzJXe https://t.co/UNZGnsrUqE
Geopolitical Tensions, Not Jobs Data, Drive Mortgage Rates
Does jobs week matter for mortgage rates as the Iran war intensifies? https://t.co/eNWu4sPUwS via @YouTube
U.S. Labor Market Slows to Low‑Hire, Low‑Fire Cycle
The labor market can be "roughly steady" with a lotta hiring matched by a lotta firing, or few fires matched by few hires. The U.S. is moving into a low hire-low fire equilibrium, which really hurts folks—the young, those (re-)entering...
Interest on Debt Outpaces Entire U.S. Defense Budget
$39T national debt. 10Y yield: 4.44%. Annual interest: ~$1.1T. That exceeds the entire defense budget. The US is paying more to service its past than to defend its future. There is no clean exit from a fiscal spiral at this scale. --- https://t.co/maHJkCjSBw
US Industrial Production Flat, Not Soaring.
My friend Thematic Markets gets this wrong -- US industrial production (using the series that leaves out chips, which is still benefitting from Biden era policies) is flat not way up 1.x https://t.co/pYA4LZEt8F
Rate‑cut Bets Collapse, Biggest Positioning Reversal in Years
January: everyone was long rate cuts. Now: hike odds >50%. That's not a rotation. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the unwind isn't finished. $SPY -3.4%. $QQQ -4.2%. The price tells you where we are in that unwind. --- https://t.co/mDbRSIwQT2
Fed Pledges Policy Actions to Sustain Low Inflation Expectations
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."
January Job Surge Was Cherry‑picked; February Shows Decline
Recently, the January surge in US manufacturing job openings was cited as evidence of US tariff success. Today's JOLTS report shows a significant retreat in February. Alas, the perils of cherrypicking. https://t.co/iGuSwqceO5
Sticky Inflation Pushes Rate Cuts to Q3/Q4
Well, the good news in all of this, assuming it's actually coming to a close, is it hasn't lasted long enough to do material impact to the labor market. The bad news is we probably locked in stickier inflation which...
Iran Oil Shock Spikes US Inflation Expectations to 2025 Highs
"Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government." - The Conference Board...
Recession Risk Doubles Normal, yet Stays Under 50%
If you're asking whether 30% recession risk is bad, compare it with the right baseline. Normal is about 14%. So yes, we're still below 50%—but we're also roughly double normal. Seems troubling. https://t.co/2dO5Qjmi3q
US Job Churn Hits Near‑Recession Lows, JOLTS Shows
With this latest JOLTS release, we're at a US labor market churn rate that's among the lowest since data began, rivaling the depths of the Great Recession. https://t.co/F9CRiQJ4c9
Hiring Slumps, Layoffs Remain Low in Labor Market
The no-hire, no-fire labor market. The private-sector hiring rate fell to 3.3% in February, the lowest since Feb. 2010, when the unemployment rate stood at 9.7%. The layoff rate, however, continues to hold steady at low levels. https://t.co/oFDKXdikju
Job Openings Rise in January, but Overall Vacancy Rate Falls
Job openings for January were revised up, but the three-month moving average continues to gently grind lower through February There were 0.9 vacancies for every worker counted as unemployed in February, near the low for the current business cycle. https://t.co/5ET6aMzmsE