Trade Data Smacks GDPNow First Quarter Forecast Down to 1.1 Percent
The Fed’s GDPNow model now projects first‑quarter 2026 growth at just 1.1% annualized, down from its earlier 1.6% headline nowcast. The downgrade stems primarily from a sharper‑than‑expected decline in net‑exports, which fell by 0.53 percentage points after February’s trade deficit widened to $57.3 billion. Analyst Mike Shedlock argues the model failed to anticipate the trade shortfall, suggesting the nowcast may be overly optimistic. He also warns that hot inflation readings could push actual Q1 GDP into negative territory.
Inflation or Recession? The Tug of War in Bond Markets
The yield on the benchmark ten‑year U.S. Treasury bond has swung dramatically, dipping below 4% on Feb. 27, spiking above 4.4% by March 27, and then retreating again. The rapid movement reflects heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, notably the American‑Israeli war...
How Trump’s Budget Request Will Keep Everyone Guessing
President Trump’s new budget request leverages the Office of Management and Budget’s pocket rescission tool to push a $1.5 trillion defense increase, $73 billion domestic cuts, and a $350 billion defense aid package via reconciliation. The administration hopes to force Congress into a...
Health Care Wages Diverge as Cyclical Sectors Rise
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not? https://t.co/uhzQRgCXXi Something strange is happening with wages in health care, while cyclical sectors are looking up. https://t.co/g4hKv2rVBo
Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?
The average wage for typical American private‑sector workers increased only 3% over the past six months on a seasonally‑adjusted basis, aligning with pre‑pandemic norms and trailing the 4.1% annualized growth seen from mid‑2023 to mid‑2025. The slowdown is driven almost...
Tom Steyer Proposes AI Token Tax to Fund California Sovereign Wealth Fund
Billionaire gubernatorial hopeful Tom Steyer unveiled a plan to levy a token tax on AI data processing, channeling the proceeds into a Golden State Sovereign Wealth Fund for education, job training and cash dividends. The proposal, aimed at offsetting AI‑driven...
Oil Prices Top $110 as Iran‑Israel Conflict Chokes Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices surged past $110 a barrel on Friday as the Iran‑Israel war tightened the strategic Strait of Hormuz, sending U.S. equities into a modest weekly gain and lifting South Korean stocks nearly 3%. The price shock is fueling inflation...
Iran-Israel Clash Spikes Oil to $112, Pushes 10‑yr Treasury Yield to 4.30%
The Iran‑Israel conflict sent crude above $110 a barrel, prompting the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield to slip to 4.30% from 4.32% as investors reassessed inflation and growth risks. The move sparked a broader sell‑off in sovereign and corporate bonds worldwide.
US Inflation Seen Spiking in First Snapshot Since Iran War
The U.S. consumer price index for March is expected to rise 1% month‑over‑month, the steepest gain since 2022. The jump is largely attributed to a roughly $1‑per‑gallon increase in gasoline prices following the Iran‑Israel conflict. This surge will be the...
US Private Sector Jobs Shrink, Biggest Loss Since 2020
Jerome Powell: “There is effectively ZERO net job creation in the private sector.” US job growth in February has been revised down from to a total loss of -92,000 jobs to -133,000 jobs. It's the largest loss since December 2020.
What’s an ‘E-Shaped’ Economy — and Where Do You Fit in It?
U.S. economists are now labeling the post‑pandemic recovery an “E‑shaped” economy, where the middle class forms the central bar of the letter while the upper and lower tiers diverge upward and downward. The model builds on the earlier K‑shaped narrative...
U.S. Adds 178,000 Jobs in March, Defying Iran War Risks
The Labor Department reported a gain of 178,000 non‑farm jobs in March and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the strongest payroll surge in 15 months. Economists say the surge reflects the end of a health‑care strike and...
SIFMA Urges 12‑pm to 4‑pm NY Window for Dollar Bonds as Futures Dip Ahead of Payrolls
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) told dealers to confine dollar‑denominated bond trades to the 12 pm‑4 pm New York window, citing thin liquidity ahead of the March payrolls release. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.2‑0.3%, while the 10‑year...
Zero Job Growth Seen as Full Employment, Yet Fragile
22,500 jobs a month would have set off alarms two years ago. Today it might be fine. Fed officials are still grappling with how to explain that. “Conveying that a zero-job-growth economy is consistent with full employment is not easy,”...
College Grads in ‘AI-Proof’ Careers Like Psychology and Education Are Seeing Negative Returns on Their Degrees
A new report from the Postsecondary Education and Economic Research Center finds that graduate degrees in traditionally "AI‑proof" fields such as psychology and education generate negative cost‑adjusted returns, with psychology at –8% and clinical psychology at –5%. Even high‑earning majors...
U.S. Agencies Commit $224 M to AI-Ready America Workforce Initiative
The U.S. Department of Labor and the National Science Foundation have formalized a partnership to launch the TechAccess: AI-Ready America initiative, allocating up to $224 million for 56 state and territory hubs. The program will study AI’s effect on employment, integrate...
30‑Year Mortgage Rate Hits 6.46%, Tied to Rising 10‑Year Treasury Yields
Freddie Mac said the benchmark 30‑year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.46% from 6.38% last week, its highest level since early September. The rise mirrors a lift in the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.3%, underscoring tighter credit conditions for homebuyers...
Employers Add 178,000 Jobs in March, Unemployment Falls to 4.3%
Employers added 178,000 jobs in March, eclipsing the 60,000 consensus estimate and pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. Health care, construction and transportation led the gains, while the Fed watches for rate‑cut signals.
Wells Fargo CEO’s ‘Reasons to Worry’ Warning Flags Economic Risks
Wells Fargo chief Charles Scharf warned the market with the three‑word phrase “Reasons to worry,” despite data showing resilient consumer spending and low unemployment. He cited soaring oil prices, higher gasoline costs and lingering market nervousness as the main threats...
Mortgage and Refinance Interest Rates Today, April 4, 2026: Down a Quarter Point Since Last Weekend
Mortgage rates have fallen for five consecutive days, with the national 30‑year fixed rate dropping to 6.22%, a quarter‑point decline since last weekend. The 15‑year fixed rate also eased to 5.72%, while refinance rates remain higher, averaging 6.43% for a...
Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Yet Trigger Recessionary Pullback
𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗖𝘂𝘁𝘀 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗪𝗮𝘆𝘀 The reporter, David Lin, asks his guest "𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 (𝗙𝗲𝗱) 𝗯𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲? His guest, Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group states that "oil cuts both ways in terms...
February U.S. Jobs Loss Deepens to 133,000
U.S. job growth for February was revised lower by 41K, from an initial estimate of -92,000 to -133,000 jobs
New Proposal to Send $1,000 Direct Payments to Millions of Americans
Representative Henry Cuellar introduced the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act of 2026, a House proposal that would issue direct payments of roughly $1,000 to $2,000 to eligible U.S. households. The legislation aims to offset an estimated $231 billion in consumer costs...
US Services Slip, Jobs Surge; India Manufacturing Hits 4‑year Low
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2026, signaling first contraction in over three years. ⦿ S&P Global US Composite PMI revised to 50.3 in March 2026, lowest since September 2023. ⦿ US economy added...
Flawed Job Data Masks Tax Revenue Crisis
The jobs reports are not accurate and never have been. America is in SERIOUS trouble because people with jobs pay taxes, and if people don't have jobs, less tax revenue is collected, so less money for the politicians to commit fraud...
AGC's Data DIGest: March 30-April 3, 2026
Construction employment in March 2026 reached 8.33 million, up 0.7 % year‑over‑year, driven by a 1.7 % rise in non‑residential jobs while residential employment fell 0.9 %. Average hourly earnings for production workers jumped 5 % to $38.62, outpacing the broader private sector. Job openings...
Ground Beef Outpaces Minimum Wage for First Time
For the first time ever, a pound of ground beef costs more than minimum wage. That’s not just inflation. It’s the breakdown between wages and the cost of essentials. #Economy #Inflation #CostOfLiving
Inflation Ties Stocks and Bonds, Boosting Bond Yields
Inflationary regime... stocks & bonds moving together JPMAM While that means less diversification, it also means higher bond yields vs the 2010s.. when bonds zigged when stocks zagged... it's a trade-off. https://t.co/VNDHInIcmI
White House Seeks 12% Cut to HHS in 2027
The White House’s FY 2027 budget proposal slashes the Health and Human Services (HHS) discretionary budget by $15.8 billion, a 12.5% cut from FY 2026. The National Institutes of Health would see funding drop $5 billion to $41 billion, and several agencies—including the National Institute...
March Jobs Report Hides Drop in Total Hours
An overlooked aspect of the March jobs report: total hours worked actually fell in the month https://t.co/ZdEGUdFNjX
Immigration Deficit Lowers Job‑growth Breakeven Below 50k
Breakeven rate of job growth to keep the unemployment rate steady is probably under 50k... immigration (or lack thereof) is the driver.. JPMAM https://t.co/IwfJaneYQ3
White House Seeks 12% Cut to HHS in 2027
The White House’s FY 2027 budget request calls for a 12.5% cut to the Department of Health and Human Services, slashing $15.8 billion from the agency’s discretionary budget. The proposal trims NIH funding by $5 billion, eliminates the National Institute on Minority Health...
Neo‑con Trump Policies Spark Inflation, Hurt Bonds
While the combination of tariffs and spending cuts in 2025 proved net disinflationary (benefiting USD bond markets), the current dramatic neo-con shift under the Trump administration is the exact opposite - inflationary and negative for bonds
US Jobs Data Fuels Dollar Rise, Stocks and Bonds Dip
Stocks and bonds may fall again while the dollar gains after deceptively upbeat US jobs data. #NFP #Stocks #Dollar #Macro #Trading #IranWar https://t.co/bSlTNo7Fkg
U.S. Wellness Market Hits $2.1 Trillion, Cementing Global Lead
The Global Wellness Institute (GWI) announced that the United States wellness economy has reached $2.1 trillion, representing 7.33% of national GDP. The market grew at a 7.9% annual rate from 2019‑2024, with per‑capita spending surpassing $6,300. The data underscores the U.S....
Media Overlooked Revised February Job Loss Spike
In reporting the good jobs numbers for March, the media failed to pick up on the fact that the job losses in February were revised UP from 92,000 lost jobs to 133,000 lost jobs. https://t.co/haZXRUFU55
Wall Street Rebounds; Jobs Surge, but Geopolitics Loom
Wall Street snapped its 5-week losing streak this week. S&P 500 +3.4%, Nasdaq +4.4%, Dow +3%. First positive week since the Iran war began. Then on Good Friday, a bombshell: 178,000 jobs added in March — triple the 59,000 expected....
Redfin Shows Home Prices Cooling as Mortgage Rates Near 6.5%
Redfin’s latest weekly data show median new‑listing prices edging up 2.47% to $424,975 and median sales rising 2% to $391,000, even as the national 30‑year mortgage rate nudged higher to 6.46%. The mixed signals highlight a market where price growth...
US Jobs Market Shifts From Steady Growth to Volatility
Taking the data at face value, the US labor market appears to have transitioned from a period of sustained, stable growth into a phase of significant volatility. Per the FT chart below, recent reports are characterized by sharp swings between job...
Policy Week in Review – April 3, 2026
The White House unveiled its FY27 budget request, calling for $2.2 trillion overall with a 44% boost to national defense spending. Non‑defense outlays are slated to shrink by 10%, including a 26% cut to the Department of Labor’s $9.9 billion budget and...
Experts Trash Trump's Nightmare Budget
Politicus USA and the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget dissected Donald Trump’s FY 2027 budget proposal, highlighting a dramatic surge in defense spending to $1.5 trillion. The plan adds $350 billion through a new reconciliation bill and $251 billion to base defense discretionary...
Feb Job Gains Signal Recovery, Wage Growth Slows
The big jobs rebound (275k in Feb) is mostly a recovery from Jan's storms & strikes. Wage growth cooled, which is key. Labor market looks solid but normalizing. JobsReport
March Jobs Report: Healthy Labor Market, Slower Supply, More Volatility
In the March employment report, the U.S. added 178,000 jobs—well above expectations—driven by rebounds in construction, leisure, hospitality, and a resolution of a health‑care strike that had hurt February’s numbers. Chief U.S. Economist Michael Ferole highlighted that the unemployment rate...
March Jobs Rise, Participation Dips; Fed Stays Patient
March jobs report is a mixed bag. Blockbuster +303K payroll growth shows strength, but a dip in labor force participation signals some underlying softness. The Fed will likely stay patient. JobsReport
ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI Forecast Signals Rate‑Risk, Short Bills Hedge
Macro: ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI (exp 55.0) will set US growth/inflation tone. Key: new orders, employment, prices. Risk: hot print reprices rates. Trade: favor short bills to hedge duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Use Biden’s $888 B 2025 Budget as Comparison Baseline
The base of comparison really should be Biden's $888 billion 2025 budget, not the 2026 budget, which was already a big increase.
Trump's Tariffs Accelerated US Manufacturing Job Losses
A year ago, Trump proclaimed that “Liberation Day” would be "the day American industry was reborn." Thanks to Trump's tariffs, US manufacturing job losses accelerated, shedding 108,000 jobs in 2025. TARIFF MAN = HOW TO DESTROY AMERICA'S MANUFACTURING JOBS. https://t.co/3jvtsqZiBh
White House Simplifies Tariffs, but 50% Rates Stay Punitive
After months of lobbying by companies that were unfairly hit by tariffs, the White House consolidated and simplified metals tariffs. But, tariffs remain SKY-HIGH at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper. The admin's changes were only window dressing. Tariff rates remain punitive....
Spreads Peak Months After Recession Starts, Not Before
History says spreads peak 5-7 months after recessions start. Not before. By the time the NBER calls it, the move is done. $JOJO uses leading signals, not lagging labels. https://t.co/aEqM5MShko
US Labor Market Paradox: Low Demand, Shrinking Workforce
This is the Weirdest US Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen. Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal & state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged https://t.co/AyqHHkWDji Federal government jobs lowest since 1966. Hi...