Iran War and $109 Oil Price Spike Threaten March Payrolls, Raising Hiring Outlook Concerns
U.S. labor market expectations are being clouded by the Iran‑Israel conflict, which has pushed Brent crude to about $109 a barrel and prompted a $200 billion supplemental war funding request. Analysts warn the higher energy costs could dampen hiring momentum ahead of the March non‑farm payrolls report.
U.S. Treasury Yields Jump as Bonds Plunge Amid Trump‑Era Iran Tensions
President Donald Trump's late‑Wednesday address on Iran sent U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher and bond prices tumbling. The sell‑off was driven by fears of higher oil prices, tighter monetary policy and a broader risk‑off mood ahead of a potential ground...
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.48%, Pressuring U.S. Homebuyers and Bank Loan Portfolios
Freddie Mac reported the average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.48%, its highest level since September 2025. The surge, driven by higher Treasury yields and geopolitical tension, threatens spring home‑buying activity and adds strain to banks' mortgage‑loan books.
Fed's Oversized Balance Sheet Undermines Inflation Goals
The essay from Lorie Logan is excellent. Unfortunately the tradeoffs of balance sheet size vs public good have been and continue to be mistakenly biased to narrow goals and miss the big picture which remains a failure of the...
Foreign Central Banks Boost Fed Holdings by $3.3 Bn
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
What Is the Distribution of Forecasts for the US NFP?
The article explains how the distribution of U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) forecasts can shape market reactions, even when actual data falls within the reported range. Analysts tend to cluster estimates toward the upper bound, so a reading near the lower...
Jobless Claims Hint March Unemployment May Dip
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 2, 2026) Jobless claims data rarely lies. The 4-week moving average suggests March may bring a lower unemployment rate than February's 4.4%. Is the labor market more resilient than the headlines suggest? https://t.co/Q9AwUK9yDy
Nominal Trade Rebounds: Exports Surge, Imports Match Biden Levels
A thread on the February 2026 trade data, with some answers and some questions -- Both nominal imports and nominal exports (ex petrol) are growing again -- with surprising strength in nominal exports and nominal imports back at their end Biden...
US Job Market Cools as Openings Fall
US labor market showed signs of cooling in February as job openings dropped to 6.9 million, the lowest level in months. Private payroll growth slowed to an average of 18,000 jobs per month while layoffs held steady, indicating employers are pausing...
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Drop to 202,000, Signaling Labor Market Strength
Initial unemployment claims slipped to 202,000 for the week ended March 28, down 9,000 from the prior week’s revised figure. The decline underscores continued labor market resilience and adds pressure on the Federal Reserve as it weighs future rate moves.
Congress Grapples with $25 Trillion Social Security Gap as Trust Fund Nears 2032 Depletion
U.S. lawmakers are debating how to close a projected $25 trillion gap in the Social Security retirement trust fund, which is now expected to run out of reserves by late 2032. Proposals on the table include a $1.5 trillion Treasury‑backed investment fund...
Fixed‑Income ETFs Poised for Fed Decision as Yield Spreads Tighten
Analysts spotlight the State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) and BlackRock's iShares fixed‑income ETFs as top picks before the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision. With KRE offering a 2.4% yield and iShares navigating higher oil prices, the debate...
Kudlow -Thursday, April 2
On Thursday, April 2, Fox Business aired a special episode of Larry Kudlow's program, featuring a roundtable on domestic and global economic policies. The show highlighted a presidential address and an interview with former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi focusing...
Bond Traders Show Minimal Bearishness Ahead of Jobs Report
Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the...
Near‑Zero Breakeven Job Growth Makes Payroll Declines Likely
A new paper from Fed board economists concludes that "breakeven" job growth is near zero, which means negative job growth would be almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month even if the economy is at equilibrium. The...
Experian Finds 38% of Americans Hold Personal Loans as Costs Surge
Experian reports that 38% of U.S. adults now carry a personal loan, up sharply as wages lag behind inflation. The average balance tops $19,000, while delinquency rates hold steady at about 4%, highlighting a growing reliance on debt financing.
Presidential Data Spin Undermines Trust in Economic Statistics
"That trust is frayed by the president spinning economic data before it is even released. Claudia Sahm, said that “it’s a degrading of an institution, it’s a degrading of a norm” that runs the risk of “chipping away at the...
American Manufacturing in Decline? Nope... Ignore the Naysayers
The Institute for Supply Management reported a third consecutive month of expansion in its Manufacturing PMI, signaling continued growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector. This upbeat data directly challenges recent headlines that linked rising job losses to the perceived failure...
Mortgage Rates Climb for 5th Week as Iran War Weighs on U.S. Housing Market
The average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.46% on Thursday, according to Freddie Mac, marking a five‑week streak of increases and the highest level since early September. The climb follows a dip below 6% earlier in the year, which was...
War and Inflation Likely Cancel Fed Rate Cuts This Year
Markets were expecting two to three rate cuts from the Fed this year until Trump’s War in Iran began to wreak financial havoc. With inflation picking up, it looks like we might not get any rate cuts at all this...
Nowcast, Tracking of Private Domestic Final Demand (Aka “Core GDP”)
The Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs nowcast shows private domestic final demand, often called “core GDP,” is decelerating. The latest chart reveals growth falling below the 2023‑24 stochastic trend and the March Survey of Professional Forecasters median. All nowcasts rely...
Trump Says Federal Government Can’t Fund Medicare as Iran War Costs Mount
President Donald Trump told a White House Easter audience that the federal government cannot continue funding Medicare, Medicaid, or daycare because escalating military costs from the Iran war are draining the budget. He suggested that states should assume responsibility for...
Another Fed Rate Cut Still Possible but Far From Guaranteed
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5‑3.75 % after the March 2026 meeting, with only one dissenting vote for a cut. The latest dot‑plot shows 12 of 19 policymakers still expect at least one more reduction this year,...
Tariffs Boost Inflation, Stall Growth, Offer No Trade Gains
Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).
Economy Thriving: Record Gains Amid Minimal Recession
The unemployment rate is 4.4%. This week’s ADP payroll report was better than expected. The retail sales report was also better than expected and the January report was revised higher. The ISM Manufacturing report was positive for the third month in a row,...
U.S. Trade Deficit Grows to $57.3 Billion in February, Missing Forecasts
The U.S. Commerce Department said the trade deficit expanded to $57.3 billion in February, up from $54.7 billion in January but below market forecasts. The modest widening eases some pressure on GDP calculations, currency markets and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Anyone Hiring?
Revelio Labs released an alternative hiring impulse metric for the United States, estimating that the economy added fewer than 20,000 jobs on a net basis. The figure was published ahead of the official Good Friday Bureau of Labor Statistics employment...
10‑Year Yield
Another big development last week was that the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.48%. The chart below shows that the yield has continued to coil in a large triangle, and could be on the verge of a break-out. Meanwhile,...
Fed's Logan: I Wasn't Convinced Inflation Was Easing Enough Even Before the War Started
Dallas Fed President Logan said he remains unconvinced that inflation is easing sufficiently, even before the Ukraine war escalated. He highlighted the difficulty of forecasting amid geopolitical uncertainty, but noted that a swift war resolution could limit economic damage. Logan stressed...
Dallas Fed Chief Defends Ample‑reserves, Rejects Tiered Quotas
In a speech this morning, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivers a clear defense of the ample-reserves framework at a moment when others (Warsh/Bessent) have implied a course correction would be desirable. In the speech and a far more detailed...
Energy
GS: 10 charts we are watching: Goldilocks faces a Balanced Bear The energy shock results in a pickup in inflation as well as weaker growth and less policy easing After the bullish start to the year, our Risk Appetite Indicator declined but...
US Trade Deficit Widens in February As Imports Offset Record Exports
The U.S. trade deficit widened 4.9% in February, reaching $57.3 billion as a 4.3% jump in imports offset a record‑high $314.8 billion export total. Imports were buoyed by AI‑related capital equipment, while goods exports surged 5.9% to an all‑time high. The goods...
AI Bad for Writing, Great for Hawkish Speech Scoring
Kinda mixed feelings about using AI. For writing it’s definitely bad. But I think it’s totally fine to use an LLM to gauge which of two (anonymized) FOMC speeches is more hawkish (macro context dependent) and repeat that thousands of...
Holiday Week Brings Continued Wild Market Volatility
We still have NFPs tomorrow - which can generate volatility through thinned liquidity - but by and large the market is done for the week. What to expect next week? Wild Market Volatility Likely to Continue Through Holiday Conditions https://t.co/cnoL8Uiqb5
Total Nonfarm Payrolls for March 2026 Are Projected to Rise By 60,000
The median forecast for March 2026 non‑farm payrolls predicts a gain of 60,000 jobs, a sharp rebound after February’s 92,000‑job decline. This estimate far exceeds the 12‑month average increase of 13,000, indicating a potential turnaround in hiring momentum. Unemployment is expected...
NFP Never Released When Markets Are Closed
When is the last time they released NFP on a day the market was closed?
Payrolls Edge Above Forecast, Unemployment Holds Steady
GS: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 70k in March, slightly above consensus of +65k. The big data indicators we track were mixed in March. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.4% in March...
IMF Says US Fed Has Little Scope for Rate Cuts This Year
The International Monetary Fund’s latest Article IV review finds U.S. inflation on track to meet the Federal Reserve’s 2 % target in early 2027, but signals minimal room for rate cuts this year. IMF staff project only a single policy rate reduction...
Trump’s “Strongest Economy” Claim Clashes with Modest Growth
Trump says he built the "strongest economy in history". TRUMP = HASN’T LOOKED AT THE DATA. USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2024 = 2.8%/yr USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2025 = 2.1%/yr. https://t.co/ZEBSTs32ra
National Debt Is About Sustainability, Not Household Limits
Public debt isn’t like household debt. A family can hit a hard stop. A country can refinance, tax, grow, and revisit its budget year after year. The issue is sustainability, not a single scary number. https://t.co/T4l1gg78Xk
2026 Forecast: Economy Expected to Grow 4‑5% Real
“We are going to see a very, very strong economy this year. We could see between 4 and 5% real growth." - Scott Bessent, Jan 2026 https://t.co/JlonK53rXZ
US Current Account Deficit Steadies Near 4% of GDP
True, but also a bit deceptive. The spike in q1 overstated the "true" current account deficit, and the unwinding of gold and pharma front running depressed the h2 deficit. The underlying current account deficit is still...
AI-Enabled Goods Lead US Imports in 2025
AI-enabling goods were big drivers of US imports in 2025. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/hsx98RbAJP
Tariffs Cut Trade Deficit to Lowest Since 2020
The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job. The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020 https://t.co/xhTU8KRbPU https://t.co/pDi3O4iYwF
Key Metrics to Watch for Tomorrow’s Jobs Day
If you're trying to figure out what metrics actually matter for Jobs Day tomorrow, check out this valuable piece from @PrestonMui and @_vikasbp: How The Fed Is Tracking Jobs Day https://t.co/zWQYamKDaT https://t.co/NeRpIroGPi
61% of Americans Anticipate Recession Within Year
The latest Ipsos Consumer Tracker finds that 61% of Americans expect a recession within the next 12 months. While recession storm clouds are gathering, a slowdown is BAKED IN THE CAKE. https://t.co/uijU8le8FD
Core Truflation Below Headline Signals Consumer Spending Cut
"If you look at Truflation, you are seeing core Truflation running below headline, it is telling you that consumers are already cutting back on discretionary purchase." https://t.co/AZWaQ8HgmF #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/3Qh0AXdqub
Fed’s Reserve Policies Shield Wall Street, Fuel Inflation
It prevents fed funds cuts, props up Wall Street, props up inflation, all because the Repo Gang of Four won't deal with uneven distribution of reserves.
US Trade Deficit Grows in February Despite Record Exports
US Trade Deficit Widens in February As Imports Offset Record Exports. Capital goods. AI. Will the Iran war affect March? https://t.co/DKavl92Fdl