Treasury Curve Steepens After Weeks of Flattening
The U.S. Treasury yield curve, which has been flattening throughout 2026, showed a modest steepening on Friday as the 5‑year note held at 4.07% and the 30‑year bond nudged up to 4.98% by market close. The move came after bullish gap openings and a surge in energy prices that have dampened expectations for near‑term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Technical analysts noted that the 30‑year yield briefly touched 4.999% before retreating, reinforcing key psychological support zones. While the steepening may be a temporary bounce, it interrupts a year‑long trend toward a flatter curve.
Trump’s Policies Collectively Fuel Inflation Despite Temporary Shocks
Yes, the impact on inflation from tariffs is transitory. Yes, the impact on inflation from the oil shock will most likely be transitory. But the backdrop is every single one of Trump's major policies is inflationary: Larger fiscal deficits are inflationary Reducing...
Powell: Fed Will Look Through Energy Shocks, Watch Expectations
Powell on Monday reiterates that the Fed typically look through energy shocks, but he warned that "a critical, essential aspect of that is you have to carefully monitor inflation expectations" This recent piece w/ @bencasselman explains why https://t.co/eabY4kFd9d @nytimes
Outdoor Recreation Industry Hits $1.3 Trillion Output in 2024, BEA Says
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing outdoor recreation produced a record $1.3 trillion in nominal gross output in 2024. While the sector remains a powerhouse, growth slowed amid broader economic headwinds, prompting industry leaders to...
Powell Says Fed Tools Can't Curb Supply Shocks, Halting Hikes
*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS This is in my opinion the right take, and it completely punctures the probability of rate hikes in the US. They are going to sit this one through
Fed's Miran: Rate Pause Stifles Job Growth, Misfires on Inflation
Fed’s Miran told us he thinks the Fed is holding back job growth by keeping rates on hold and wrongly fighting the last war (inflation)
Treasury Yields Slip as Trump Talks About Peace, Ahead of Labor Data
Treasury yields slipped as President Trump hinted at progress in peace talks and investors turned to upcoming labor data. The 10‑year yield fell to about 4.37% and the two‑year to 3.86% early, later adjusting to roughly 4.40% and 3.89% per...
Powell Warns Confidence Precedes Grasp of Rising Risks
Powell downplays dissent on the Fed's board and says you would expect disagreement when there are both downside employment and upside inflation risks that are growing. "Confidence is what you feel before you really understand the problem."
Foreign Investment Drops Sharply One Year After Liberation Day
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" this week, @sdonnan reports that new foreign investment in the US was actually down significantly last year: https://t.co/s1wGG4RQiu
Stagflation Looms as US GDP Slows to 0.7% and Inflation Stays Above 3%
U.S. economic data released this week showed fourth‑quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.7% and consumer‑price inflation still running above 3% in January. Combined with soaring oil prices and rising Treasury yields, analysts warn the economy may be slipping into...
Energy Price Surge Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Falling
Core running south of headline is a “tell.” Will it catch @federalreserve off sides if they misinterpret the message of demand destruction?
The Daily Feather — Under the Bell Jar
The Daily Feather revisits Sylvia Plath’s *The Bell Jar* as a lens for today’s consumer gloom. It highlights that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 53.3 in March, the lowest reading since December. The slide is tied...
Restocking Signals Stockpiling, Not Sustainable Recovery
Does restocking = industrial recovery if no follow through foreseen? Philly Fed Mfg Delivery Times hit 4-year high of 18.9 in March, FUTURE Delivery Times’ -4.7 was 3-year low; 23.6 point spread a -2.0 z-score reinforcing restocking as did falling Expected...
Both Rate Cuts and Hikes Demand More Income
Cut rates? Need more income. Hike rates? Need more income as growth prospects get hammered, hitting growth stocks.
Fed Independence Under Fire as Politicians Push for Greater Control Amid Border and Energy Debates
Congressional leaders and administration officials are ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve to align monetary policy with political priorities, citing the $20,000+ troop deployment at the southern border and Texas wind‑energy growth. The clash pits central‑bank independence against a...
Fed Funds Futures Return to Normal, Near‑Term Hike Priced Out
Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs. https://t.co/F0dnQCJ9pu
Defense Production Drop Caused One‑Quarter of Manufacturing Job Loss
New @nberpubs: "The Cold War and the U.S. Labor Market" https://t.co/uDe0Mn2o4R "the 1950s-to-1990s decline in defense production explains roughly one-quarter of the decline in manufacturing employment" https://t.co/LjOZhGC7OZ
S&P 500 Slides About 7% YTD as Recession Odds Rise, Sparking Large‑Cap Investor Anxiety
The S&P 500 has slipped about 7% year‑to‑date as recession probabilities climb, heightening concerns for holders of large‑cap stocks. Analysts point to tighter credit, volatile energy prices and lingering geopolitical stress as key drivers, while investors scramble to hedge exposure.
NYC Comptroller Defends $2.3B Bond Sale Amid Budget Criticism
New York City Comptroller Mark D. Levine defended a roughly $2.3 billion municipal bond issuance, rejecting the narrative that Mayor Zohran Mamdani's budget plan scared off investors. He blamed broader market volatility and rising yields, while rating agencies moved to a...
Trump-Fed Clash and Iran War Heighten Stakes Ahead of U.S. Inflation Report
Former President Donald Trump is demanding a federal funds rate near 1% as the Iran war disrupts oil flows, intensifying a feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell just before the next U.S. inflation report. The standoff threatens to reshape equity...
Market Outlook for the Week of 30th March - 3rd April
The week ahead is data‑heavy, with Eurozone inflation, U.S. payrolls and retail sales, and Canada’s GDP on the calendar. Energy‑price pressure from the Iran conflict could push euro‑area inflation higher, complicating the ECB’s path to price stability. In the United...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
German inflation data, driven by higher energy prices, is set to rise sharply in March, prompting the ECB to consider a June rate hike despite likely looking through the spike. Market pricing reflects a 55% probability of an April hike...
Two Fed Cuts Aren't Enough—Bet on a Different Strategy
Here is what I said: “If your only hope is two Fed cuts this year, you’re backing the wrong horse.”
Rising U.S. Mortgage Rates Threaten Spring Home‑Buying as Treasury Yields Climb
U.S. mortgage rates have jumped sharply, creating a major obstacle for the spring home‑buying season. The rise is tied to higher Treasury yields as geopolitical tensions lift oil prices and weigh on global bond markets.
U.S. Gasoline Nears $4 a Gallon as Iran War Fuels Energy Price Surge
U.S. pump prices are climbing toward $4 a gallon as the Iran‑Israel war drives crude above $100 a barrel and diesel to record levels. Analysts warn the surge could deepen stagflation, hitting families and farmers alike.
JPMorgan Strategist Rejects Near‑Term Fed Rate‑Cut Forecasts
JPMorgan Chase’s head strategist publicly dismissed market speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower rates in the second half of 2026. The warning aims to curb premature corporate financing moves and recalibrate FP&A forecasts across the economy.
WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT INTEREST RATES AND OIL
The Macrotourist examines whether rising oil prices or higher interest rates are the primary drag on economic growth. Using recent data, the piece shows oil spikes have historically preceded slowdowns, but recent Fed tightening appears to have a more immediate...
Energy Shock Could Trigger Demand Collapse, Slowing US Growth
Below is an example of a new and ongoing economic risk to the US economy from the US-Israeli War on Iran — What begins as a "cost of living" problem (Energy Price Shock), if sustained, risks evolving into a "fewer...
The Most Important Charts for the Next Few Weeks
The article highlights a sharp rise in US Treasury yields after an inflation shock tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 10‑year note closed at 4.44%, and analysts warn that a move toward 5% would confirm fears...
Federal Budget, Economic Report of the President, 2026 Coming Out April 3
The White House will release the FY 2026 federal budget on April 3, three months later than the statutory February 2 deadline. The accompanying Economic Report of the President must follow within ten days, setting the fiscal agenda for the...
Bigger Isn't Better: A Case For Downsizing The Federal Reserve
The article argues that the Federal Reserve’s 24,000‑person workforce is bloated and calls for a 20‑30% staff reduction, especially among economists. It urges a comprehensive audit of the Fed’s self‑funded budget, which has consistently outpaced federal spending. The piece highlights...
Oil Could Spike to $150, Ignoring Market Risks
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
Recession Odds Surge, Crowd and Banks Align Signals
Polymarket recession odds jumped from 23% to 35%. That's real money moving in a prediction market. Not a survey. Not a pundit. People betting their own capital. Goldman: 30%. JPMorgan: 35%. Zandi: 49%. The crowd and the institutions are converging on the same...
Markets Move to Price in Rate Hikes as Inflation Fears and Geopolitics Reshape Fed Expectations
Markets have shifted from expecting Federal Reserve cuts to pricing in rate hikes for 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows about a 30% chance rates will end the year higher than the current 3.50‑3.75% range, while odds of cuts...
Rising 5% Breakeven Inflation Threatens S&P Valuations
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
Unemployment Rate Drives 10‑2 Yield Curve Movements
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
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U.S. Unemployment Rate by President
The analysis ranks average annual unemployment rates for U.S. presidents from Truman through Biden, noting that Lyndon B. Johnson posted the lowest post‑World War II average at 4.18% while Gerald Ford recorded the highest at 7.76%. It explains that unemployment is...
Fed's Tightening Leeway Evaporates Amid New Data
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Treasury Data Shows U.S. Government Insolvent in FY2025
My take in @asiatimesonline on US debt: “The US gov't is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, which was released last week to near-total media silence.”...
10‑Year Treasury Yield Signals Oil’s Impending Downturn
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
US Gas Prices Stay Low, Softening Energy Shock Impact
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Low 5-Year Forward Inflation Gives Fed Flexibility
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate very low.. Fed has some wiggle room here @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/7ebc7VndLU
Goldman Predicts Fragile US Growth, Risk of Crash
Goldman now sees US growth at 1.25-1.75%. That's stall speed. Not a soft landing. An economy running on fumes. At 1.25%, one supply shock — one policy mistake — tips it over. The runway is shorter than anyone on CNBC is admitting. $SPY $DIA https://t.co/4Krvew1NCo
Rising Diesel Prices Signal Delayed Inflation Surge
Diesel: $3.89 → $5.37/gal. Every truck. Every delivery. Every shelf. The inflation pipeline hasn't fully hit yet. Freight costs are the slow burn that shows up 60-90 days later. You haven't felt this yet. You will. $XLE $IYT https://t.co/OaV580UlNv
Labor Market Cracks, Rates Rise, Growth Slows: Triple Warning
February payrolls: -92,000. Unemployment: 4.5%. The labor market cracked while everyone watched oil. A cracked labor market + rising rates + slowing growth. That's not a soft landing. That's three warning signs firing at once. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/LY08qXAJYh
Fed Chair Switch Could Trigger Unexpected Pivot Amid Rising Inflation
Powell out in May. Warsh in. Market is pricing hikes. New chair may cut. The wildcard nobody's discussing: what if the Fed pivots just as inflation re-accelerates? One transition. Two completely different outcomes. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/zmsbBtchWk
One‑Year Inflation Swaps Hover Near 3%, No Panic
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
Bond Market Squeezes Yield Expectations, Proves Wrong
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
Rate Hike Outlook Reverses, 10‑Year Yields Surge
We started 2026 with multiple rate cuts priced in. Now the market is leaning towards a hike. The 10-year is at 4.43% and still accelerating. We cover what that feedback loop means for stocks in the latest episode. $SPY $QQQ $IEF...