Sentiment Dives to Near “Liberation Day” Levels
The University of Michigan’s final March consumer sentiment index slipped to 53.3, down from the preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations fell 4.9 points from February, outpacing the 2‑point dip in current conditions caused by higher gasoline prices. Analysts attribute the broader decline across the Michigan index, Conference Board, and Gallup gauges to heightened uncertainty from the US‑Iran war. The red‑dashed “Liberation Day” line on the chart underscores how close sentiment is to historically low levels.
High Inflation Dem
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
Morgan Stanley Gets Fed Green Light to Realign German Unit
The Federal Reserve voted 4‑3 to grant Morgan Stanley an exception allowing its German investment bank to be folded into its U.S. holding company, sidestepping Section 23A limits on foreign affiliate ownership. All three Democratic board members dissented, arguing the move...
Monetary Policy Lag Shapes Current Decision-Making Framework
A special shoutout to Fed guy @josephwang. During our chat Joseph gave a beautiful breakdown of the lagged effects of monetary policy and how that feeds into the current decision making framework and then 3 hours later when @fejau_inc interviewed...
Walmart Rolls Out Digital Shelf Labels Across All U.S. Stores by 2026
Walmart announced it will install electronic shelf‑label (ESL) displays in every U.S. store by the end of 2026, eliminating paper price tags. The move is pitched as a labor‑saving, error‑reducing tool, but lawmakers and consumer advocates warn it could enable...
U.S. Mortgage Rates Hit 6.38%, Driven by Rising 10‑Year Treasury Yields
The average 30‑year fixed mortgage jumped to 6.38%—its highest level in over six months—after the 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.39%. Higher oil prices and the Iran conflict are pushing bond yields up, tightening borrowing costs for homebuyers.
US Inflation Surges to 4.2% Amid Tariffs, War
U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war. The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all...
US Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Historic Lows Amid Uncertainty
US Consumer Sentiment just fell in March to 53.3, one of the lowest readings of all time. The only lower readings? Nov/Dec 2025 after longest gov't shutdown April/May 2025 after 'Liberation Day' tariffs June/July 2022 during inflation spike Americans are struggling to navigate all...
US Consumer Sentiment Slips to a Three-Month Low in March
U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a three‑month low in March, with the University of Michigan’s index slipping to 53.3, the weakest reading since December. The decline was driven by a sharp rise in oil prices—up more than 30% after the...
Double-Barreled War Risk Bombs Household Mood
U.S. consumer confidence slipped sharply in March as the Michigan sentiment index was revised down to 53.3, a six‑percent decline from February and the lowest reading recorded in 2026. The drop reflects heightened anxiety over the war‑induced surge in gasoline...
Americans Trust Fed to Tame Inflation Amid New Iran Shock
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
U.S. Debt Service Surpasses Defense, Threatening Great Power Status
Ferguson’s Law, proposed by Sir Niall Ferguson: when a great power spends more on debt service than on defense, it risks losing its status as a great power. The U.S. crossed that line. Net interest at ~3.1% of GDP exceeds defense at ~3.0%. DEBT...
$30 an Hour by 2030: New Pushes to Increase Minimum Wage in New York and California
Campaigns in California and New York City are pushing to raise the minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030 for large employers, with Oakland and Alameda County placing ballot initiatives on the November 2026 ballot. New York City councilmember Sandy Nurse introduced...
U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Nears 4.5% Threshold
The other chart we all gotta check daily. 👉 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 💥Almost hit 4.5% today😦 https://t.co/DVVhNkPrqm
Yardeni: Iran War Could Trap Fed in Stagflation Bind
Ed Yardeni warns the Fed could face a policy bind if the Iran war triggers stagflation, caught between its dual mandate. https://t.co/AEdPXCYmJy
Mortgage Rates Are Rising Again — and the Housing Market Is Feeling It
Mortgage rates have jumped from about 5.99% to roughly 6.38% according to Freddie Mac, nudging monthly payments higher and unsettling a market already wary of the spring buying season. The rise, driven by higher 10‑year Treasury yields, oil price volatility and...
U.S. Debt Hits $39 T, Treasury Declares Insolvency
US DEBT HAS HIT $39T AND IS CLIMBING. As I wrote in Fortune with Dave Walker, former US Comptroller General, US Treasury data show, black on white, that Uncle Sam is INSOLVENT. https://t.co/qKKcJtEuEk
Removing SS Cap Breaks Contribution-Benefit Link, Distorts Taxes
Eliminating the wage cap on Social Security taxes & capping benefits severs the link between what you pay in and what you get out, making the payroll tax more distortionary. Make SS more like an individual notional account, not a welfare...
Fed’s Hawkish Tone and Middle East Tensions Push Dollar to 99.64 Index
The U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.64, its biggest one‑day gain this week, after the Federal Reserve signaled a “higher‑for‑longer” policy stance and Middle‑East cease‑fire hopes faded. Rising oil prices above $100 a barrel and heightened safe‑haven demand drove the...
Short‑Term Inflation Expectations Spike, Long‑Term Dip
UMich biggest sour swing since April 2025.. 1yr inflation expectations surge to 3.8%... but the long-term inflation outlook was down a tick https://t.co/jKnBGuulSH
OECD Predicts 4.2% US Inflation, Trump’s Achilles’ Heel
The OECD warns that US inflation will surge to 4.2% this year. As I predicted, the inflation genie will not be put back in the bottle and will remain one of Trump’s Achilles’ heels.
Why We Should Worry About Stagflation
Economists warn that a new oil‑price shock, sparked by recent Middle‑East conflicts, is reviving stagflation risks in the United States. Phillip Braun of Kellogg notes that the current environment mirrors the 1970s, where supply disruptions and accommodative monetary policy fueled...
Iran War Scenarios Shape New Fed Policy Outlook
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
Post‑WWII Worker Power Erased by 1979 Neoliberalism
This is one of my favourite charts. It shows how the economy emerged from WW2 with a lot more worker power.. and then post-1979 neoliberalism crushed it. sorry folks, we aint gonna get another wage-price spiral https://t.co/KydXL5zIer
Census Shows Southern Metros Surge as Border Cities Shrink, Reshaping US Economy
The U.S. Census Bureau released 2025 metro‑area estimates showing an average 0.6% population gain, driven by rapid growth in Southern cities like Ocala, FL, and Myrtle Beach, SC, while border metros such as Laredo, TX, Yuma, AZ, and El Centro,...
Yardeni Predicts Fed Will Hold Rates Steady All Year
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC he expects "none and done" from the Fed this year—no rate hikes ahead. https://t.co/Ml4LwB5aky
Jefferson and Barr's Speeches Raise Fedlock Hawkishness
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
Fed's Miran Makes Case for Small Balance Sheet
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran urged a substantial reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, proposing a cut of $1‑$2 trillion to restore a more neutral monetary stance. He suggested easing liquidity‑coverage‑ratio rules, destigmatizing repo and discount‑window facilities, and allowing securities to...
How Do We Fix America’s Tax Problem? — with Senator Cory Booker
In this episode Senator Cory Booker discusses the "Keep Your Pay Act," which proposes making the first $75,000 of household income tax‑free while funding the loss by tightening loopholes for the ultra‑wealthy, raising the top marginal rate, and increasing the...
Why Fed Rate Cuts Could Be Pushed Back
In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Michael Gapin and macro strategist Matthew Hornbach dissect the March FOMC meeting, noting the Fed’s decision to hold rates and retain an easing bias while pushing expected rate cuts from June/September to...
Iran Oil Shock Could Lift U.S. Unemployment 20‑40 Bps
Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment. In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year. Source:...
U.S. Real Median Household Income Peaks 2024
U.S. real median household income 2017: $71,870 2018: $74,030 2019: $78,250 2020: $81,580 2021: $81,270 2022: $79,500 2023: $82,690 2024: $83,730 Calendar-year 2025 income report (which will contain the official 2025 median household income) should drop around September 2026) Source: U.S. Census...
U.S. Jobless Claims Tick Up, Labor Market In “Zero-Growth” Phase
U.S. initial unemployment claims edged up by 5,000 to 210,000 for the week ending March 21, aligning with economists’ expectations. Continuing claims dropped to 1.819 million, the lowest level since May 2024, indicating a tightening labor market. The Federal Reserve is...
US 10‑Year Yield Climbs to Over 4.40%
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
Chicago Fed Forecasts March Unemployment at 4.46%
The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for March is 4.46%, up slightly from the BLS value for the previous month. https://t.co/fmDwn7KNXM https://t.co/DQnoKpB7NE
Goldman Says the US Could Lose 10,000 Jobs a Month This Year as the Oil Shock Ripples Through the Economy
Goldman Sachs warns that the recent oil price shock could erase about 10,000 new jobs each month in the United States through the end of 2026. The bank projects the unemployment rate climbing to roughly 4.6% by year‑end, driven by...
Unemployment Numbers Defy Bearish Economy Narrative
Man, it's hard to look at the unemployment data and see a bearish economy. https://t.co/IZjRJlefW9
US Labor Market's Mixed Signals Signal New Normal
The US Labor Market Confounds with its Countercurrents. It May Be the New Normal Labor Market. The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market https://t.co/5TJNIc4U16 https://t.co/JLm2HmsMRX
US Sells 7-Year Notes at 4.255% vs 4.252% WI
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion of 7‑year notes at a 4.255% yield, just 0.3 basis points above the when‑issued rate, a tighter tail than the 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps seen in recent 2‑year and 5‑year sales. Meanwhile, 2‑year yields surged 8.8 bps...
Broad Economy Dampens Shelter Inflation, Says QI Research
The Weekly Quill — Letting it Bleed Broad Economy Saps Shelter Inflation From @dimartinobooth and #JonathanBasile of QI Research https://t.co/OdXHMzZrUu #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy #shelter #inflation https://t.co/wCt4RAq1nh
Administration to Submit FY2027 Budget Request Next Week
Confirming recent rumors that the Administration will send the FY2027 budget request to Congress next week, Sen Approps Cmte chair Susan Collins tells Politico it's supposed to arrive at the end of next week. https://t.co/eF2p9GpD3K Vought to testify to...
Senate Proposal to Scrap Social Security Earnings Test Could Add 1M Workers
A bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation to eliminate the Social Security retirement earnings test, a rule that currently cuts benefits for workers aged 62‑66. The bill projects adding 166,000‑1.035 million workers, raising personal incomes by $10.5‑$65.7 billion and generating up to...
Hormuz Closure Likely Drives 10‑Year Yields Higher
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Mortgage Rates High, Market Frozen Despite Fed Cut Hopes
Mortgage rate: 6.43%. Mortgage applications: -10.5% in a week. The housing market isn't slow. It's frozen. Nobody's buying. Nobody's selling. The Fed's "one cut" forecast isn't saving anyone at the closing table. $XHB $TLT $SPY https://t.co/4lS8cSAOkb
U.S. Current‑Account Deficit Shrinks to $190.7 B in Q4, Easing Dollar Pressure
The United States reported a $190.7 billion current‑account deficit for the fourth quarter, a sharp reduction driven by stronger foreign investment earnings than outflows. The swing eases strain on the dollar, lifts equity sentiment and fuels debate over the durability of...
10‑Year
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
Questioning Borrowing for Savings Amid Limited Federal Revenues
Why would we borrow *more* to build a savings fund? Unless we're going to get our fiscal house in order and fund gov't spending differently, I don't understand the rationale here. Further, federal resource revenues are small. The vast majority...
U.S. Treasury Five‑Year Note Auction Draws Modest Demand, Yield Curve Tensions Rise
The Treasury’s most recent five‑year note auction attracted demand that fell short of recent averages, prompting a modest rise in mid‑term yields. The weaker bid‑to‑cover ratio underscores growing caution among investors amid heightened geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.
Inflation Re‑accelerates; Fed Likely to Raise Rates Again
CPI in February: 2.4%. Cleveland Fed CPI forecast for March: 3.02%. PCE tracking toward 3.14%. Inflation isn't cooling. Inflation is re-accelerating. The Fed hiked into this once. They'll do it again. $TLT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/2TPM7EbXp5
EPA Issues Temporary E15 Waiver to Ease Gas Prices Amid Iran Conflict
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a five‑day emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets gasoline that has risen to almost $4 per gallon as the Iran war tightens oil supplies, and it...