Warsh Signals Evolution, Not Revolution at the Fed
Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony highlighted a push for gradual, not radical, changes at the Federal Reserve. He reiterated long‑held criticism of the Fed’s oversized balance sheet and advocated slow, predictable reductions while relying on interest‑rate tools rather than balance‑sheet adjustments. Warsh also suggested shifting inflation measurement toward trimmed‑mean and median metrics and proposed a modern “billion‑price” survey. Despite partisan split, he offered no concrete commitment to rapid rate cuts or a sweeping policy overhaul.
Stop Treasury's TGA Use to Shrink Fed Balance Sheet
One serious way to reduce demand for reserves--which is the only way you can reduce the balance sheet from here--is to get Treasury to stop using the TGA. Treasury's use of the TGA both increases the minimum necessary size of...
QT Arguments Clash with QE-Driven Inflation Narrative
You see a lot of people try to argue that quantitative tightening didn’t tank markets and reduce inflation because it came out of the RRP. But you can’t argue this if you also argue that QE going into the RRP...
How Trump’s War Screwed You Out of Your Trump Tax Refund: Wall Street Has the Receipts
Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) promising historic tax refunds that would lift average checks by about $1,000 and inject $75‑$90 billion of consumer relief. The refunds materialized, with total payouts reaching $265 billion and average checks up 11.2%....
GDP Graph Fails to Reflect Recent Decline
Hardly look at this broken model anymore since the gold imports mistake over a year ago. That said my pet peeve max annoying report detail is still broken. GDP now went down from 1.3 to 1.2 and yet...
Goldman Sachs Pulls Back on 2026 Fed Rate‑cut Outlook Amid Oil‑driven Inflation
Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 Federal Reserve rate‑cut forecast, still seeing up to two 25‑basis‑point cuts but warning that timing is unclear. The shift follows an oil‑price shock from the Middle East conflict that has lifted inflation risks even as...
Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage Doesn't Cool Inflation or Markets
The notion that Warsh shrinking the balance sheet would put downward pressure on inflation or that it would deflate asset prices is one of the most ludicrous propositions that anyone following monetary policy and markets over the past 20 years...
Ideal Fed Policy: Minimal Meetings, No Politics, 2% Inflation
My wish list 8 meetings and press conferences Muzzle governors and presidents from discussing and writing about monetary policy Keep the dots Forward guidance when useful (typically at zero fed funds rate, or Pivots) Smaller balance sheet with no MBS and no long duration assets...
NY Fed Survey Shows Record Low Wage Satisfaction as Job‑Switch Intent Slips to 9.7%
The New York Federal Reserve’s March labor‑market survey found wage satisfaction at a historic low of 52.3% and the likelihood of workers seeking a new employer at just 9.7%, the lowest level since March 2021. The findings highlight growing pay...
Treasury Yields Rise as Iran Ceasefire Talks Lift Oil Prices
U.S. Treasury prices fell and yields climbed after renewed ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil higher. The move marked a clear geopolitical catalyst for the bond market, separate from the ongoing Federal Reserve nominee hearing.
Trump's Pick for Fed Chair Heads to Capitol Hill
The episode covers President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, highlighting Warsh's testimony that balances a claim of Fed independence with the President's desire for lower interest rates. It then shifts to energy companies seeking new...
Warsh Signals Normalcy, Yet Bias May Influence 2026 Rate Cuts
Warsh is presenting himself as if he intends to be a normal Fed Chair. Either he intends to put his thumb on the scale despite what he is saying in Congress or the President is going to be disappointed. Dollar...
Warsh's Trump Ties and Consistently Poor Fed Calls
It's not just that Warsh would be beholden to Trump. That is the most important thing, but it also overshadows the fact that his Fed calls down the years have been bad--not uniquely bad, but systematically bad. I'm old enough...
Mother’s Day Spending Expected to Hit $38 Billion
Consumer spending on Mother’s Day is forecast to reach a record $38 billion, up from $34.1 billion last year and surpassing the previous high of $35.7 billion set in 2023. The average gift spend per shopper climbs to $284.25, reflecting a willingness to...
Fed Official Dodges Rate Question, Emphasizes Policy Lag
Warsh: I don't believe in forward guidance, I should not be previewing for you... VanHollen: I'm asking about your framework: what would happen if interest rates were lowered to 1% or less. Would that likely push up prices. Warsh: the Fed has...
March Pending Home Sales Climb 1.5% as Inventory Grows
Pending home sales increased 1.5% in March, even as mortgage rates rose to about 6.3% by month‑end. New listings surged 21.2% to 439,000, providing the strongest inventory boost in years, while the median list price fell 2.2% year‑over‑year. The South...
MPA Weekly Poll: Grade the Career Performance of Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell may preside over his final Federal Reserve meeting next week, prompting a poll that asks market participants to assign a letter grade to his eight‑year tenure. Since taking the helm in 2018, Powell guided the Fed through the...
Fed's 2021‑22 Mistakes Fuel Ongoing Inflation Legacy
Warsh opens the hearing by noting that today's inflation is a residual of the Fed's past mistakes "The Fed missed its mark, and we are still dealing with the legacy of the policy errors in 2021 and 2022." "Once you let inflation...
Noncompetes and Concentration Cause One‑Third Wage‑Growth Slowdown
A third of the post-1980 slowdown in wage growth is a result of noncompetes and more employer concentration. https://t.co/CjDO9G0rC1
US Pending Home Sales Accidentally Rise
Contract signings for existing U.S. homes unexpectedly rose 1.5% in March, marking the second consecutive monthly gain and defying forecasts of a flat reading. The increase came despite mortgage rates climbing roughly 40 basis points as oil price spikes lifted...
Inflation Rose to 3% Ahead of Trump's Tariffs
it actually rose to 3% in Biden's last two months, it had been lowerl, but people began buyingh stuff in advance of Trump's tariffs, pushing prices higher on things like cars and cameras. But this stuff is too complicated for...
Half‑trillion Wiped From US Markets in 90 Minutes
🩸 MARKET SHOCK: $500,000,000,000 wiped out from the U.S. stock market in just 90 minutes following Kevin Warsh’s statements. https://t.co/IE25nsCifH
Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Hearing as Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Pushes Rate‑cut Agenda
President Donald Trump’s Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh testified before the Senate Banking Committee, promising to keep monetary policy independent while signaling a desire for lower interest rates. Lawmakers, especially Democrats, are probing his past ties and his commitment to...
Warsh Vows Monetary Policy Independence From Trump
Warsh: I'll make monetary policy decisions independent of any advice or pressure from President Trump Also Warsh:
1990s Boom Stemmed From Tighter Money, Not Looser Rates
Me trying to explain to my nephew's friend that the 90's disinflationary/productivity 'boom' was underpinned in part by 'sounder' money and a 5+% FF funds rate, not the other way around (my nephew went upstairs to grab his shit for bball...
Fed's Shift: From Late Powell to Sock Puppet Warsh
It seems like the Fed is going from “Too Late” Powell to “Sock Puppet” Warsh. Will “Sock Puppet” Stick?
Copper at $6 Signals Economy’s Health Boost
Here comes "The Doctor," touching $6 again. They call it Doctor Copper because the metal's action diagnoses a sick or recovering economy. A nice 55.1 on ISM Manufacturing Production indicates the industrial sector has been taking its Vitamin (C)opper. https://t.co/BGqFYLIPUI
Rate‑cut Odds Tumble After Warsh Hearing, Retail Sales Drive Shift
What's priced in after Warsh's nomination hearing. Yesterday, here was a 54.5% chance of a rate cut in December; now it's 39.5%. Was it Warsh's testimony? Doubtful, as we had a strong retail sales report. (src: BBG) https://t.co/Xg7g7b7gXM
Warsh Denies President Asked About Rate Cuts
Warsh says reports that the president asked him if he would lower rates if nominated were fake news.
Fed Must Prioritize Chronic Inflation Risk Management
Warsh addressed none of this in his nomination hearing. FTR, I think inflation is more of a chronic risk than an acute problem, but risk management is central to what the Fed is supposed to be about.
Inflation Trajectory Improves, but Work Remains Ahead
Warsh: the trajectory on inflation is improving, but there's more work to do This may well serve as a summary of his testimony as well.
Pending Home Sales Plunge
Pending Home Sales Still in the Deepfreeze, Drop in the West & Midwest, Tick up in the South & Northeast . Down by 35% from 2021, by 30% from 2019, and by 31% from 2018. The housing market is in the 4th...
Warsh: President only Suggested, Didn’t Demand Rate Cuts
Q: did the President ask you to lower rates? Warsh: he didn't require it, he didn't demand it. Question goes back and forth. Warsh is pretty clear - Warsh doesn't dispute that he may have been 'asked' to lower rates - he...
Fed Balance Sheet Cuts Must Be Gradual, No Fixed Target
What level should the balance sheet be at? Warsh: I haven't picked a number. The Fed should come to an agreement, it's taken 18 years to get to the balance sheet, it won't happen overnight. It should not hold long-term Treasuries....
Warsh's Plan to Cut SOMA WAM Gains FOMC Backing
Reducing WAM of SOMA could be part of Warsh's plan which many FOMC members could support
Warsh Vows Independence; Markets React with Caution
Overly simplistic headline I expect to see in Google News: "Trump's Fed Chairman Pick Kevin Warsh Says he Will be Independent of Political Influence, Stocks Retreat"
One-Year Inflation Expectations Surge to 4.8%, Year’s Largest Spike
JUST IN: One year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%, the biggest one month spike in a year
Retire Dot Plots, Forward Guidance, and Cut Press Conferences
Shitposting aside, I think it would be a great move to retire dot plots, forward guidance, and have less press conferences
Warsh Says President Never Directed Specific Interest-Rate Decisions
Warsh's wording seemed quite precise to me (emphasis mine): "The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on *any interest rate decision*" He used the same wording again: "The president never once asked me to commit to any particular...
Inflation Improving, Trend Favorable Despite Imperfect Measures
“Inflation has been Improving somewhat.. the measures I prefer… they’re not where they should be but the trend is quite favorable” Kevin Warsh on inflation
Warsh Denies President Ever Pressured Him on Interest Rates
Warsh: the President never asked me to predetermine or fix any particular rate. The President never, once, asked me to any particular interest rate decision, period. Nor would I agree to it.
30-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Move
US 30Y yields are compressing near a key breakout zone setup suggests a decisive move could be close. What happens next could impact equities, commodities, and global liquidity Read the full breakdown: https://t.co/a7I8dqoCIw #US30Y #BondYields #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Indiacharts #MacroEconomics...
Retail Sales Rise, but Inflation‑adjusted Sales Fall Fourth Month
Despite yet another "upside surprise" to retail sales, inflation-adjusted retail sales have declined for the fourth straight month. Goods prices are rising faster than the dollar value of goods sales Consumers are spending dollars, but aren't necessarily consuming more output https://t.co/EyAhZA065H
Kevin Warsh Calls for End to Forward Guidance
I can't believe Kevin Warsh just said he wants to kill forward guidance It's just a podcast man
Rising Living Costs Reveal Fed’s Missed Inflation Target
Warsh on cost of living: when the cost of living has gone up for virtually all deciles of the American public, it's a sign that the Fed missed its mark. The fatal policy error is a legacy we still live...
Two Senators, Decades‑Long Ties, Introduce Fed Nominee
Sen. Dave McCormick is introducing Kevin Warsh at his confirmation hearing, one of at least two senators who have known the Fed chair nominee for decades (Bill Hagerty being the other)
Trump Predicts Rate Cuts Once Kevin Warsh Returns
JUST IN: President Trump says expects interest rates to fall “when Kevin Warsh gets in”
Rising T‑Rates May Trigger Emerging Market Problems
Coach thinks T-rates could turn higher from here. That could cause a few problems. https://t.co/rnBUpVg4z1
Retail Sales Rise Despite Historically Low Consumer Sentiment
Retail sales again surprise higher, as consumer sentiment remains historically low. Trust what they do, not what they say. @sonusvarghese is still in X jail, but he made this table to break it down. https://t.co/efYPbmw1Mo
Trump Warns He'll Be Disappointed if Warsh Avoids Rate Cuts
JUST IN: Trump says he'd be "disappointed" if Warsh doesn't seek lower rates after confirmation of Fed Chair