Former Fed Official Argues Against Fed Independence
Former Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles told a Shadow Open Market Committee audience that the legal shield preventing presidential removal of Board members should be scrapped, but argued the Fed’s decentralized structure would still keep monetary policy insulated from short‑term political pressure. He emphasized that regional Fed bank presidents, who sit on the FOMC and are not presidential appointees, provide a built‑in check on executive influence. Quarles’ remarks arrive as the Supreme Court prepares rulings on the constitutionality of independent regulators and the legality of former President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook. The debate revives long‑standing tensions between democratic accountability and central‑bank autonomy.
Fed Must Explain How Current Inflation Spike Differs From 2022
JUST IN: The Fed has to clarify why this inflation spike differs from the 2022 surge.
Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Tightening Spring Home‑buying Market
Mortgage rates have climbed again, adding fresh pressure to an already tight spring housing market. The rise comes amid higher utility bills, elevated construction material costs and tighter credit conditions, tightening affordability for prospective buyers.
U.S. Q4 GDP Revised to 0.5% Annualized Growth, Downgraded After Shutdown
The Commerce Department lowered its fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP estimate to a 0.5% annualized gain, down from 0.7%, after a 43‑day government shutdown trimmed federal spending. The modest expansion follows a 4.4% surge in Q3 and leaves full‑year growth at 2.1%,...
Traders Bet Fed Will Keep Rates Steady Through 2026
JUST IN: Traders are sticking with their wagers that the Fed will hold rates steady through all of 2026.
News Wrap: Inflation Report Shows the Biggest Increase Since 2024
The Labor Department’s consumer price index rose 3.3% year‑over‑year, the fastest increase since 2024, driven by gasoline prices that posted their biggest monthly jump in six decades. Stripping out food and energy, core inflation barely moved, indicating modest underlying price...
Iran War: Expensive Oil Drives Rising Inflation in U.S.
The ongoing Iran‑War has choked oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing diesel prices up 55% year‑to‑date and sparking a sharp energy‑price shock. In March, the energy component of the CPI jumped 10.9%, while the gasoline index surged...
Housing Market in a ‘Psychological Freeze’ as Confidence Falls
U.S. inflation accelerated to 3.3% in March, driven by a 10.9% surge in energy prices, prompting the Federal Reserve to likely keep rates steady. Consumer confidence plunged to a 47.6 index, a 10.7% monthly drop, creating a "psychological freeze" in...
March Jobs Surge Adds 178,000 Jobs, Pushes Fed Toward ‘Higher‑for‑Longer’ Stance
The U.S. Labor Department reported 178,000 jobs added in March 2026, far exceeding the 59,000 forecast and leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. The surprise gain has pushed market expectations to a 99.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will...
Beltway Buzz, April 10, 2026
President Donald Trump’s FY 2027 budget proposal slashes the Department of Labor by roughly 26%, eliminates the Women’s Bureau and trims the National Labor Relations Board, while adding $20 million to the EEOC. The plan also restructures the Office of Federal Contract...
Pound Pressured Ahead of US CPI as GBP/USD Hovers Near 1.3420
The pound slipped to about $1.3420 per dollar as markets brace for the U.S. consumer price index. Traders have cut expectations for Bank of England hikes to 30‑40 basis points this year, while the Federal Reserve is still seen cutting...
Analysts Warn Fed May Raise Rates in 2026, Shifting Bond Market Outlook
A coalition of market strategists says the Federal Reserve is now more likely to hike rates in 2026 than to cut them, after minutes revealed heightened inflation worries. The shift pushes 10‑year Treasury yields toward the 4.5% range and forces...
Inflation Is Hitting These Consumers Hard In Iran War
Delta Air Lines’ stock jumped after it reported Q1 earnings and announced capacity cuts and higher fees as jet‑fuel costs surge. Airline fares rose 2.7% in March and are up 14.9% year‑over‑year, the steepest increase among consumer services. Jet‑fuel prices...
Republican Hopes Spring Eternal (Iran War/Economics Edition)
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey shows a modest decline in optimism for both Republicans and Democrats, but the partisan gap widens on expectations. Republican expectations slipped about 2.5% from February, while Democratic expectations plunged roughly 26%, far...
Reignited Inflation Could Push Social Security COLA Past 3% Next Year
The U.S. Department of Labor reported a 3.3% year‑over‑year CPI increase for March, propelled by a 10.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict. The sharp 0.9% monthly rise marks the strongest one‑month jump since the 2022 pandemic‑driven inflation...
Inflation in March, and a Year From Now…
Iran has warned it will not resume talks or keep the Strait of Hormuz open until Israel stops bombing Lebanon, linking the conflict directly to its diplomatic leverage. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a looming corruption trial that...
Fed Will Need to Explain Why Current Inflation Jump Differs From 2022 Surge
The U.S. consumer price index jumped 0.9% in March, the fastest monthly rise since the 2022 inflation surge, pushing annual headline inflation above 11%. Unlike the 2022 spike, the current increase is driven largely by higher energy costs linked to...
Energy Fueled the CPI Spike but Essentials Are the Real Story
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, with a 0.9% monthly gain—the fastest since mid‑2022. A 21% jump in gasoline prices supplied nearly three‑quarters of that increase, putting energy at the headline. Core CPI, which strips out...
US March Budget Deficit for March -$164.00 Billion versus -$156.75 Billion Estimate
The U.S. federal budget posted a $164 billion deficit for March, missing the $156.75 billion forecast and slightly widening from the $161 billion deficit a year earlier. Year‑to‑date for fiscal 2026, the deficit fell 11% to $1.169 trillion versus $1.307 trillion in 2025. March revenues...
State-Level Employment Situation: January 2026
The U.S. labor market rebounded in January 2026, with total nonfarm payrolls rising by 160,000 jobs after a sluggish 2025. Employment gains occurred in 45 states, led by California (+93,500) and Texas (+40,100), while the District of Columbia posted the...
Inflation Surged to a Nearly Two-Year High in March
U.S. consumer prices jumped to a near two‑year high in March, with the CPI climbing 3.3% year‑over‑year, the strongest gain since May 2024. The surge was driven primarily by energy costs, as gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon for the first...
The Need for Federal Reserve Flexibility
The article argues that the Federal Reserve must stay agile as geopolitical shocks and soaring energy and fertilizer prices threaten to reignite inflation. It warns that the Fed’s overly accommodative stance in 2021‑22 helped push inflation to a 9% peak,...
Rental Inflation Hits 60‑Year Low, Dampening CPI Outlook
The thing to pay attention to in this CPI report is rent. Rental inflation reported by tenants fell to 2.6% YoY in March 2026. This is a full percentage point below the long-term average, and near one of the lowest levels in...
Consumer Sentiment Sours Over Inflation Concerns
Consumer sentiment slipped sharply in April, with the University of Michigan index falling to 47.6 from 53.3 in March. Households now expect prices to rise 4.8% over the next year, while the CPI showed a 0.9% monthly gain, pushing annual...
Trump Aides Caught with Pants Down as Iran War Gooses Inflation
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that March CPI rose 0.9% month‑over‑month, driven by a 10.9% jump in energy prices and a 21.2% surge in gasoline. Annual inflation hit 3.3%, the highest rate since April 2024, as the Trump‑initiated...
America Needs a Bigger Pie, Not Just Bigger Slices
The Congressional Budget Office projects U.S. labor‑force growth to shrink from 0.9% annually to just 0.1% by mid‑century, dragging potential GDP growth below 2% this decade. With fewer workers, productivity becomes the sole engine of economic expansion, a shift highlighted...
Trump Has Lied About National Debt
Ten years ago Donald Trump vowed to erase the U.S. national debt within eight years, a pledge that has not materialized. Instead, the gross federal debt has roughly doubled, climbing from about $19 trillion to more than $39 trillion. A significant portion...
Inflation Goes up by a Whopping Monthly Rate of Nearly 1%—And It’s Hitting You at the Grocery Store and Gas...
The U.S. consumer price index jumped almost 1% in March, driven primarily by a 10.9% rise in energy costs and a 21.2% surge in gasoline—the steepest monthly increase since 1967. Year‑over‑year inflation climbed to 3.3%, the highest level since April...
US Inflation Jumps to Two-Year High as Iran War Ripples Across Economy
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the strongest pace since early 2022, as the Iran‑Israel conflict sent global energy prices soaring. The monthly CPI increased 0.4%, with gasoline and electricity leading the surge; energy costs were up about...
Inflation Outlook and Fed Path Discussed on CNBC
Coming up on CNBC with Kelly Evans & Steve Liesman to talk inflation and the road forward with the Federal Reserve.
War, Oil and Inflation: What It Means for Rates
Inflation spikes tied to the Iran conflict prompted the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (BCEI) panel to revise upward its core PCE forecasts and soften expectations for near‑term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The panel now projects core PCE growth of 3.0%...
U.S. CPI Jumps 3.3% in March as Oil Shock From Iran War Fuels Inflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% year‑over‑year rise in U.S. consumer prices for March, the steepest increase in two years. The surge is tied to an oil shock sparked by the Iran‑Israel war, pushing gasoline to $4.15 a...
War Alone Doesn't Explain 74‑Year Low Consumer Confidence
The University of Michigan has been conducting a consumer confidence survey for 74 years (starting in 1952). The lowest reading in this history is the number out today for April 2026 at 47.6. The commentary from the University of Michigan attributes...
Energy Price Surge Drives up U.S. CPI Inflation
First Wave of Energy Price Spikes Hit CPI Inflation. Energy that Americans pay for directly: Gasoline, propane, fuel oil, other fuels, utility natural gas, and electricity https://t.co/SiGQSZV2zn https://t.co/uO9XHnvFt8
US Inflation Quickens to 3.3pc in March, Gasoline Soars
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the fastest pace since mid‑2024, driven largely by a surge in energy costs. Gasoline prices recorded a 21.2% monthly gain, the largest in the BLS record dating back to 1967, while fuel...
Retail Spend Up 4% YoY, Accelerating Through 2026
BofA: Retail spend +4.0% y/y in Mar; accelerating through 1Q26 -General merch stays solid, little change in Grocery -Apparel up with Luxury and Discount barbell strength -Home Improvement better m/m, but still slow https://t.co/49AMBHCEuj
Restaurant Spend Growth Slows to 1.3% in March
BofA: Restaurant y/y spend growth decelerated m/m from 3.6% in February to1.3% in March https://t.co/JgRzPmGubV
Soaring Pump Prices Drive US Inflation to Highest Level in Almost Two Years
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the fastest pace in almost two years, driven largely by a 21.2% jump in gasoline costs. The surge stems from the U.S.-Israel conflict in Iran, which disrupted oil flow through the Strait...
Tariffs Boost Core Goods Inflation, CPI Likely to Decline
Tariffs drove the bulk of core goods inflation, added 0.8% to core PCE, a Fed study finds @seekingalpha well, CPI rate should head back down then.. that's good https://t.co/WHIbx84Z7U
US Federal Deficit Swells: $1.2 Trillion Shortfall in Six Months
In the first 6 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.5 trillion and spent $3.7 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/L0Zec6hR6L
THE $9.6 TRILLION TREASURY MATURITY WALL: How the 2026 Debt Cliff, the $39T U.S. Debt Crisis, & the $1.2T Interest...
The U.S. federal debt now incurs over $1.2 trillion in annual interest, consuming roughly 23% of tax revenue and poised to become the largest budget line item. A "maturity wall" of $8‑9.6 trillion in Treasury securities will come due in 2026, forcing...
Gas Spike Drives U.S. Income Growth Below 1%
The surge in gas prices in March pushed annual inflation-adjusted U.S. income growth below 1%. Historically that's been a rare feat outside recessions https://t.co/tz1TFhlu0V
Gas Prices Aren't Down, Just Rising Slower
Am seeing lots of headlines today suggesting that consumer sentiment should improve because "gas prices have moderated." While I am hopeful of an improvement in how consumers feel, what has moderated is not the price of gas, but its pace of...
US CPI Comes in Lower than Expected, but April Rate Cut Still Unlikely
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that March’s headline CPI rose 0.9% month‑over‑month and 3.3% year‑over‑year, staying above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Energy prices surged, with the energy index up 11% and gasoline climbing 21.2% amid the Iran‑related...
CPI Spikes to 3.3%—energy Surge, Fed Holds, 2026 Bearish
CPI just came in at 3.3% that's the highest in 2 years. Energy costs through the roof. The Fed isn't cutting anything anytime soon. 2026 will be continue to be bearish.
Consumer Sentiment Hits Historic Low Since 1952
“.. consumer sentiment at its lowest level since the series began in November 1952! .. undercutting the lows of all the prior eleven recessions .. the 1970s oil shock,.. the tech wreck and terrorist attacks of 2001, the GFC of...
US GDP Slumps to 0.5% in Q4 2025 as Inflation Stays Elevated, Raising Stagflation Concerns
U.S. GDP growth fell to a meager 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, far below expectations, while consumer price pressures remain stubborn. The slowdown, amplified by a 43‑day government shutdown and weaker global demand, has analysts warning of a...
Consumption Near Negative Territory Despite Positive PCE
It was the combination of GDP revisions (PCE to 1.9%) & real personal consumption in Jan & Feb running at 0.6% rate. We are a rounding error away from inflation-adjusted consumption turning negative in an economy that runs on consumption....
Affordability Awakens Elite to Stark Consumer Reality
I feel like consumer sentiment is having its "affordability" moment as those at the top suddenly awaken to the reality that the world around them bears no resemblance to their own lived experience.
US Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low, Employment Near 2008 Lows
Not only did US consumer confidence fall to a record low in the latest UMich survey, but the employment component deteriorated to 41 from 52, just 1 pt from matching the lowest since 2008, via @pboockvar https://t.co/lACAKTyttL https://t.co/gblJzEGApU