Fed Holds Policy Rate at 3.5%-3.75% as Inflation Stays Near 3.3% Amid Oil Shock
The Federal Reserve kept its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%‑3.75% after March CPI showed a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. Traders now see a 97% chance of another hold at the April 28 meeting, while energy‑price volatility from the Strait of Hormuz remains the chief inflation driver.
Housing Bust May Fuel Fed’s Push for Productivity Boom
One interesting cross-current in the mkt is watching the top of the housing market and the commensurate generational drag it could have on inflation. This bust could be the political capital the Fed needs to easy into a productivity boom. Notice...
Americans Hate the 2026 Economy
Despite solid macro indicators—4.3% unemployment, 3.3% inflation, flat S&P 500 and steady GDP growth—Americans remain overwhelmingly negative about the economy. A preliminary April 2026 University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level since the survey began in...
Rates Spark: Equities Are Back, but Bonds Are Not - Why?
Equities have largely rebounded from the February‑28 Middle East turmoil, with the S&P 500 regaining roughly 80% of its losses, while high‑yield spreads have normalized. Bond markets remain under pressure as long‑tenor yields stay elevated, driven by stubborn inflation and higher...
Stocks Are The ‘Vigilantes’ Now
The article argues that equities have taken over the role once played by bonds as the market’s watchdog, pressuring the Federal Reserve and policymakers. With the Fed’s policy rate stuck at 3.75% and inflation expectations near 4.8%, traditional monetary easing...
2025 Regional and State-Level GDP Data
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. real GDP grew 2.1% in 2025, marking a modest expansion after stronger prior years. Every state posted positive growth, but the pace varied widely, from a 3.1% increase in Florida and South...
Current Uses and Unmet Needs of Federal Economic Statistics
The Brookings Institution’s Economic Indicators Initiative released a paper outlining current uses and gaps in the Federal Statistical System (FSS). The system, which costs less than 0.1% of the federal budget, fuels Social Security inflation adjustments, retail inventory decisions, and...
US March Home Sales Drop 3.6%, Exceed Forecast
The @wsj on the US housing market: "Home sales declined 3.6% in March, getting the crucial spring selling season off to a poor start as the high cost of housing and economic uncertainty held buyers back.... The 3.6% month over month decline...
Higher Oil Prices Need Weak Labor Market to Spare Inflation
We have had elevated oil prices before without much impact on core inflation, but back in 2011-2014, the labor market was softer, and wage growth was much lower with lower nominal growth https://t.co/sgut5B2XBG
Existing Home Sales Crumble, Outlook Cut On Higher Rates
Existing home sales in the United States dropped sharply as mortgage rates climbed, prompting analysts to cut the market outlook. The median age of the housing stock is now 44 years, meaning many homes require expensive updates to electrical, plumbing,...
US Deficit Not Caused by Dollar, Says Obstfeld
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar Hugely important NEW essay by Maury Obstfeld @PIIE ahead of this week's G7/G20 global imbalances focus. https://t.co/sWxu77W2qk
Fed Still Plans Rate Cuts Despite Geopolitical Uncertainty
I predicted in a couple interviews the Fed will LOWER interest rates this year, not raise them. Now March minutes show... "Federal Reserve officials still expect to lower interest rates this year, even with high uncertainty from the Iran war and...
Make Taxes Progressive and Collectable
Dean Baker’s CEPR paper argues that the U.S. tax code disproportionately benefits the wealthiest, and calls for a suite of reforms to make the system more progressive and enforceable. It proposes raising top marginal income rates, increasing the corporate tax...
Wireless CPI Rebounds 0.6% After Recent Declines
After showing some serious declines in recent months, the Consumer Price Index for Wireless telephone services between Feb. 2026-Mar. 2026 rose 0.6%. https://t.co/jLkjJC61OX
Resale Turnover Stays Tight Amid Slowing Sales
U.S. existing home sales by month Resale turnover remains constrained This is the raw adjusted data Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/5kA7jnxkLh
U.S. Retail Sales Up State-by-State in December 2025
The U.S. Census Bureau’s December 2025 Monthly State Retail Sales Report shows total retail sales, excluding non‑store retailers, rose 2.7% year‑over‑year. Nineteen states and the District of Columbia posted positive growth, with New York leading at a 9.0% increase, followed by Hawaii...
Inflation Expectations Become a Self‑fulfilling Macroeconomics Feedback Loop
Inflation expectations are the group chat of macroeconomics: once everyone thinks prices are going up, everyone starts acting like prices are going up, and then... surprise... prices go up. https://t.co/eXVIDDjJ4V
Lower Rates Could Reverse Expected Home Price Decline
My forecast of negative -0.62% national home price growth is at risk if rates go lower
ISM Prices Paid Has Posted One of the Largest Two-Month Moves on Record
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index surged 19.3 points over the two months ending in March, marking one of the steepest two‑month moves on record. The jump places the change in the top 2 % of observations since the index’s inception...
US Treasury Yields Rise to 4.33% as Dollar Surges After US‑Iran Talks Collapse
The collapse of US‑Iran peace talks and President Trump's threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz sent the dollar higher and triggered a safe‑haven rally in bonds. US 10‑year Treasury yields jumped 2 basis points to 4.33%, while European sovereign...
Real GDP Growth by State: Fourth Quarter 2025
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for all 50 states, annualized for the fourth quarter of 2025. The mean annualized growth was 1.8 percent, with the median state, New Jersey, matching that figure. South Carolina posted the fastest growth...
Goldman: Oil Price Drag Neutralizes 2025 Fiscal Boost
GOLDMAN: “.. we now expect the drag on growth from higher oil prices to roughly offset the boost to growth from the 2025 fiscal bill.” #OBBBA https://t.co/tjt1bVV0cv
Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Drops to All-Time Low on War Worries
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 47.6 in early April, an all‑time low and a 10.7‑point drop from March, far below analysts’ forecast of 52. The decline reflects heightened anxiety over the Iran conflict and rising energy...
Regulation Cuts Bank Risk Premiums, Raises Unemployment
New @nberpubs: "The Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Regulation: New Evidence from a High-Frequency Approach" https://t.co/g4pjlheA4f "A 10 basis point regulation-induced peak reduction in bank risk premiums is accompanied by a 15 basis point peak increase in the unemployment rate." https://t.co/sclisI5Km5
90% of 2025 Tariffs Shift to U.S. Importers
New @nberpubs: "Tariffs in 2025: Short-Run Impacts on the U.S. Economy" https://t.co/Du7yk49H5l "90% of the tariffs are passed through to tariff-inclusive prices paid by U.S. importers" https://t.co/kMhPTPkojL
Iran War May Widen 10-Year Yield’s Market Premium Vs. Fair Value
The US 10‑year Treasury yield remains above the Capital Spectator’s fair‑value estimate of roughly 4.0%, closing at 4.34% after a brief rise to 4.50% in late March. A market premium that spiked over a percentage point during the 2022‑23 inflation...
The Daily Feather — Ingmar, Not Ingrid
The University of Michigan’s preliminary April consumer‑sentiment survey recorded an all‑time low, with 98% of interviews completed before the April 7 cease‑fire announcement. Analysts caution that the final results, due in two weeks, could show a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease....
Energy Costs Crush Low‑income Workers, Warns Fed
Note To Fed: Energy Costs Are Crushing the Workers Who Can Least Afford It https://t.co/XD2UPmrpFN via @hedgeye
US Inflation Stays High, No Fed Cut Yet
Bond Market Message = #HFL = Higher For Longer on US Inflation with no Fed Rate Cut bailout (yet)
US Treasury Yields Tick Higher as Core CPI Misses Forecasts
Core consumer price inflation in the United States came in below analysts' forecasts, easing concerns about persistent price pressures. The softer reading prompted a modest rise in both the 2‑year and 10‑year Treasury yields, marking the day's most notable move...
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Flags Inflation, Credit Crack and AI Risks in Shareholder Letter
JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon used his April 6 shareholder letter to warn that inflation, a weakening private‑credit market and unpredictable AI disruption could converge into a “market storm.” The warning comes despite the bank’s record $185.6 billion revenue, and...
‘It Will Become a Problem': Jamie Dimon Says America's $39 Trillion Debt Will Mean Volatile Markets and Rising Rates
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the United States’ $39 trillion debt will eventually trigger market volatility and higher interest rates. He highlighted that the government already spends over $1 trillion a year on debt service, a figure projected to double...
Rate Hike Bets Increase After the Failed US-Iran Talks as Energy Prices Remain Elevated
Traders have raised expectations for rate hikes after the collapse of US‑Iran peace talks, which revived fears of a prolonged conflict. WTI crude oil climbed back above $100 per barrel following President Trump's announcement of a naval blockade in the...
Navigating Long-Term Unemployment In A Shifting Job Market
Official unemployment rates remain low, yet a growing cohort of professionals has been job‑searching for six months or more without success. CNBC reports that long‑term unemployment has become a persistent feature of today’s labor market, driven by a mismatch between...
The Federal Reserve's April Inflation Forecast Is In -- and It Just Keeps Getting Worse for Wall Street
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast pushed its April inflation projection to 3.56% YoY, up from 2.40% in February, as the Iran‑Israel conflict choked the Strait of Hormuz and spiked oil prices. Gas prices surged roughly 40% to $4.16 a gallon,...
Inflation Could Hit 4.2% This Year: 3 Stocks to Buy Now to Protect Your Portfolio
The OECD’s April 2026 outlook projects U.S. inflation at 4.2%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.7% forecast, driven by geopolitical tensions and tariff policies. Higher inflation threatens consumer spending, prompting investors to seek assets that can preserve purchasing power. Analysts highlight...
April 12, 2026
President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were declared unconstitutional, leaving $175 billion in illegal duties unpaid to importers and accruing roughly $23 million in daily interest. The Supreme Court ruling comes as inflation surged to 3.3%, driven by a 21.2% jump in...
Instantaneous Inflation in March
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast model reveals March’s instantaneous inflation rates for the PCE deflator, CPI quarter‑on‑quarter annualized, and PPI. The chart shows the three measures diverging, with the PCE deflator hovering near the Fed’s 2% target while CPI remains...
March CPI Jumps to 3.3% as Iran‑Israel Conflict Sends Gasoline Prices 21% Higher
The U.S. consumer price index climbed 0.9% in March, lifting annual inflation to 3.3% – the highest level since May 2024. The spike is traced to a 21% month‑over‑month jump in gasoline and a 12.5% rise in overall energy costs,...
U.S. Retail Sales Stall in December, Prompting GDP Forecast Revisions
Retail sales in the United States were unchanged in December 2025, ending a 0.6% gain in November and triggering a 0.1% dip in core retail sales. The flat reading has economists revising fourth‑quarter growth expectations, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve...
ADP March 2026 Report Shows 62,000 Private‑Sector Jobs Added, Pay Up 4.5% YoY
ADP's March 2026 National Employment Report added 62,000 private‑sector jobs and recorded a 4.5% YoY wage increase for job‑stayers, with job‑changers earning 6.6% more. The data highlights strong hiring among small firms and in health services, while regional gaps widen.
Morningstar Flags Fragile Ceasefire, IMF Forecasts and US PPI as Week's Top FX Movers
Morningstar's weekly FX and bond outlook warns that a two‑week cease‑fire in the Middle East, upcoming IMF forecasts, and US producer‑price data will dominate currency moves. Analysts see the cease‑fire as fragile, while US inflation numbers could shape the Fed's...
Bank of America Reaffirms Two 2026 Fed Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Concerns
Bank of America told clients it still expects the Federal Reserve to trim rates twice in 2026, even as inflation stays above target. The outlook, detailed by economist Aditya Bhave, underpins bond‑market expectations for lower Treasury yields later this decade.
Bond Traders Refocus on Inflation as Higher‑for‑Longer Rate Outlook Tightens Equity Valuations
Bond traders have shifted back to an inflation‑centric view, pushing Treasury yields higher as the market embraces a higher‑for‑longer interest‑rate outlook. The move pressures equity valuations and forces investors to weigh risk across the broader American stocks landscape.
Atlanta Fed Holds Q4 2025 GDP Forecast at 5.4% Amid Mixed Data
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model kept its estimate of 5.4% real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, unchanged despite a recent surge in durable‑goods orders. Analysts say the steady projection reflects lingering uncertainty from the government shutdown...
S&P 500 Holds Steady as Earnings Optimism Offsets Fed Cut Repricing and Tariff Uncertainty
The S&P 500 index closed the week near 5,820 points, posting a 0.5% gain as investors balanced upbeat first‑quarter earnings forecasts with a reduced probability of a June Fed rate cut and fresh tariff worries. The mixed backdrop kept the...
Delta's Earnings Trigger Four S&P 500 Signals Tied to Fuel Costs and Consumer Demand
Delta Air Lines posted a stronger‑than‑expected first‑quarter earnings report, prompting analysts to flag four S&P 500 signals: rising gasoline prices, a cost squeeze on consumer staples, Procter & Gamble's volume imperative, and potential volatility across the index. The moves underscore...
The Weaker US Job Ladder Has Slowed Wage Growth
A new NBER paper finds that upward job mobility in the United States has halved since the 1980s, limiting workers' ability to move to higher‑paying firms. The authors develop a novel measure using CPS data and show the gap between...
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy Warns Tariffs Are Creeping Into Consumer Prices as Stockpiles Dwindle
Amazon chief Andy Jassy told CNBC that the retailer’s early‑year inventory buildup has run out, and tariffs are now showing up in product prices. The comment comes as the U.S. government processes $166 billion in tariff refunds for companies while consumers...
Detrended Consumer Sentiment
Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April, marking the deepest reading in the series. Detrended analysis shows sentiment has been trending downward for roughly the past 15 years, reinforcing the so‑called “vibecession” narrative of...