US Homebuilder Depression Enters Second Year
The NAHB builder‑mood index fell to 34, a seven‑month low and the 24th straight month below the optimism threshold. The slump follows the Federal Reserve’s aggressive inflation‑fighting measures and is compounded by the Iran war, rising energy costs, and weak consumer confidence. Mortgage rates slipped to 6.42%, the lowest in a month, but remain elevated enough to keep purchase applications flat. Meanwhile, about two‑thirds of builders say material prices are climbing as oil prices rise.
Imports/Exports Favorable for March, BofA Beats in Q1
U.S. import prices for March rose 0.8% month‑over‑month, far below the 2.4% forecast, while core imports eased to just 0.2% after excluding fuel. Export prices increased 1.6% MoM and are up 5.6% year‑over‑year, the strongest pace since November 2022. Bank...
Trump Threatens Another Major Firing
President Donald Trump intensified his campaign against Federal Reserve leadership, warning he will fire Chair Jerome Powell if a new chair is not confirmed soon. He has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Powell's successor, but Senate Banking Committee...
Americans Feel Miserable. Why Do They Keep Spending?
New research titled “Down But Not Out: Growth Strategies For The Pessimism Economy” reveals why U.S. consumers keep spending despite historically low confidence. Four forces—media amplification of bad news, personal‑finance proximity, polarized spending concentrated among the affluent, and a turn...
Builder Sentiment Posts Notable Decline on Economic Uncertainty
Builder confidence for new single‑family homes slipped to 34 in April, the lowest reading since September 2025, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The decline reflects persistent high mortgage rates, rising material costs tied to higher fuel prices, and...
Fed Updates: 24‑Hour News Recap Podcast
What will they do? Today's podcast covers all the news about the Fed from the last 24 hours. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy #economics
Kevin Warsh’s $190 Million Disclosure Raises Fed Independence Questions
President Trump’s Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh disclosed assets exceeding $190 million, including sizable stakes in hedge funds and crypto startups. Critics warn his wealth and consulting fees could compromise the central bank’s independence as the administration pushes for lower rates.
US Mortgage Payments Ease Slightly but Affordability Strain Persists
The average new mortgage payment in the United States slipped 2.4% year‑over‑year to $1,942 in 2025, offering modest relief to borrowers. Yet 24.3% of new homeowners still allocate at least 30% of their income to mortgage costs, a level deemed...
Against the Odds: US Is Relatively Resilient Despite Global Turmoil
Despite heightened policy uncertainty, trade barriers and a war in the Middle East, the U.S. economy remains on a growth path. Real‑time indicators such as the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (2.7% YoY) and the Johnson Redbook Index show solid...
Fed Speeches and Price Data Dominate April 15 Calendar
Economic Calendar for Wed. April 15 8:30am - Export prices m/m for March: Expected 1.5%; Prior 1.5% - Import prices m/m for March: Expected 2.3%; Prior 1.3% - NY Empire State manufacturing for March: Expected 0; Prior -0.2 - Fed’s Barr speaks 10:30 - Crude Oil Inventories: Expected 2.1M; Prior...
Democrats Propose Raising Child EITC to $5,500
JUST IN: Democrats' new measure hikes the Earned Income Tax Credit to $5,500 per child.
The Daily Feather — People-Watching Main Street
The Daily Feather uses a people‑watching metaphor to dissect four charts that track small‑business revenue, employment, loan activity, and digital adoption across the United States from 2005 to 2026. The data reveal a 45% rise in revenue per employee, a...
15% of U.S. Taxes Unpaid, Creating $700
JUST IN: 15% of U.S. taxes go unpaid every year creating a ~$700 billion tax gap
Inflation Won’t Reach 2% Target, Be More Volatile
literally said that four years ago. Inflation would come down sharply, but not all the way to 2% - which was now the floor rather than the ceiling. And it would also become more volatile, due to various supply shocks
Fed Report Shows Trump Tariffs Prevented Trump From Meeting Inflation Goals
A Federal Reserve report found that Trump‑era tariffs added roughly 0.8% to overall U.S. prices and were responsible for the entire excess core‑goods inflation observed in 2025. The analysis shows tariffs kept inflation above the pre‑pandemic 2% target, undermining the...
Inflation Still Above Fed’s 2% Target, No Decline
Are inflation and core inflation coming down? Unfortunately, I don't think we can say so anymore. Not on the measures that define the Fed's 2% inflation target: https://t.co/2NzZtQ2Qjr
Trump Threatens to Fire Fed Chair Powell if He Stays
JUST IN: Trump threatens to fire Jerome Powell if he doesn't resign from the Fed after a new chair takes office
Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Discloses $192 Million Crypto Portfolio, Sparking Scrutiny
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve, filed a 69‑page financial disclosure showing at least $192 million in combined assets with his wife, including dozens of crypto and blockchain positions. The revelation has ignited a political‑finance firestorm...
Non‑fuel Import Prices Climb 2.8
Non-fuel import prices rose 0.6% in March, are up 2.8% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7 Looks like exporters forget to eat Trump's tariffs.
Manufacturing Jobs Down, Output up Ninefold via Automation
Manufacturing jobs have fallen from 36% of all private jobs in 1946 to just 9% today. But that doesn’t mean we’re making less - real manufacturing output in the US has increased by over 9x in the last 80 years thanks...
Why Is the Fed Holding Firm? The New Strategic Reality for Treasurers
The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%‑3.75% for a second pause in 2026, moving from aggressive easing to cautious observation amid geopolitical energy shocks and a looming leadership transition. Simultaneously, the Fed is purchasing up...
Tax Loopholes Sail, Social Spending Stalls in Congress
"The country’s politicians have created a tax code with 10,000 sections and innumerable carve-outs.... tax expenditures tend to fly through Congress, whereas social-spending bills tend to get stuck" https://t.co/vRFS2tPnEu https://t.co/MTmEBAEnV7
Food‑at‑home Inflation Set to Jump to 5‑6%
BofA sees Food at Home inflation rising from 2% as of March to 5-6% in the next 6 months https://t.co/sxDL8p533h
Former Fed Chair Yellen Sees One Fed Cut Possible as Iran-Driven Inflation Clouds Outlook.
Janet Yellen, former Fed chair and current Treasury secretary, said a single Federal Reserve rate cut could still occur later in 2024 despite heightened inflation risks from the Iran‑driven energy shock. She noted that short‑term inflation expectations have edged higher...
K‑shaped Spending Gap Widens Across Income Levels
BofA: K-shaped spending dynamics are likely to get more pronounced Ratio of lower- and higher-income spending to middle-income discretionary spending https://t.co/D91THgBKnh
US to Begin Billion‑Dollar Trump Tariff Refunds Next Week
U.S. prepares to refund billions from Trump tariffs, starting next week - report @seekingalpha https://t.co/AZ9NZeeyFt
US Set to Start Refunding $127 Billion in Tariffs
The U.S. Treasury will begin processing refunds on April 20 for $127 billion in tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year. The Court of International Trade ordered the government to file a progress report by April 28. A new...
Fed Missed Inflation; Core Prices Falling, Rates Should Drop.
Bessent to WSJ's Paul Gigot: "The Fed has been wrong on inflation and the core inflation is coming down, but I understand if they want to wait until the data's clear, but that will mean that interest rates should come...
Yellen Likens Trump’s Rate‑cut Push to Banana Republic
Trump’s push to cut US rates akin to ‘banana republic’, says Yellen - https://t.co/RpxzxJc6i3 via @FT
Treasury Secretary Bessent Says Core Inflation Falling, Calls for Fed Rate Cuts
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers that core inflation is continuing to decline and reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. He emphasized that the administration wants Kevin Warsh installed as Fed chair as soon...
Vehicle Ownership Costs Jump 36% Since 2020
Car & Truck Inflation in America: Cost of Vehicle Ownership Soared by 36% since 2020. Prices of new & used vehicles, insurance, gasoline, maintenance & repairs, parts & accessories, and fees https://t.co/XQGaCM6zaV https://t.co/oRSKzIye85
Senate Advances Bill to Ban Mega‑Investors From Buying Single‑Family Homes
The U.S. Senate voted 89‑10 to advance a housing bill that would bar institutional investors owning 350 or more single‑family homes from purchasing additional properties. Backed by Sen. Tim Scott and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the measure aims to boost homebuilding...
US CPI Jumps to 3.3% YoY as Gasoline Prices Surge, Core Inflation Stalls at 2.6%
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the highest level since May 2024, as gasoline surged 21.2% month‑over‑month. Core inflation remained muted at 2.6% YoY, creating a split that pressures policymakers in the United States and Canada.
Treasury Secretary Bessent Urges Fed to Pause Rate Cuts, Boosting Bond Outlook
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Semafor the Federal Reserve should wait before cutting interest rates. His comment, made amid strong early‑year economic data, is expected to temper expectations of imminent rate reductions and influence Treasury and corporate bond pricing.
Report: Retail Sales Grew in March Thanks to Tax Refunds
Retail sales climbed for the sixth straight month in March, driven by larger-than‑expected tax refunds that offset rising gasoline prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Seasonally adjusted sales excluding autos and gas stations rose 0.4% month‑over‑month and 6.59% year‑over‑year,...
The Closer – Reasons for Optimism, PPI, BDCs – 4/14/26
Truck orders surged 211% year‑over‑year in the three months ending February, underscoring robust demand for commercial vehicles before the war. ADP reported 157,000 private‑sector jobs added in the week to March 27, the strongest weekly hiring stretch on record. Yet consumer...
GDP Projections: One of These Is Not Like the Others
The latest chart juxtaposes U.S. real GDP growth forecasts from the Biden administration, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the Wall Street Journal poll, the Fed’s GDPNow model, and Goldman Sachs. The administration’s projection, built on...
Inflation Is a Process, Not a Sudden Drop
Inflation is a process -- doesn't just drop from the sky, it has to be caused and continued https://t.co/I3TuKPlRD8
Scoop: Senate Plans to Grill Six Cabinet Officials on Trump's Budget
Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R‑Maine) will summon six Trump Cabinet secretaries for hearings on April 22, aiming to push a full‑year appropriations package through before the Sept. 30 fiscal deadline. The lineup includes Treasury, Health and Human Services, Commerce, Interior,...
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Says Middle East War Delays Any Fed Rate Cut
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told reporters that the longer the war in the Middle East continues, the more a U.S. interest‑rate cut is pushed off. His comment, made amid heightened market speculation, underscores how geopolitical risk is now...
PPI Climbs >6% Monthly, Energy Spikes Drive Third Rise
PPI Jumps by over 6% Month-to-Month Annualized for 3rd Month in a Row. Energy Price Spike just Latest Wrinkle. Hit from energy in March was softened by food and services, which briefly backed off. In prior months, services were the...
Investors Snap Up Investment‑Grade Bonds as Sovereign‑Corporate Yield Gap Widens
Aberdeen Global's head of fixed income, Jonathan Mondillo, said investors are buying the dip in bonds as demand for investment‑grade issues continues to outstrip supply. 2025 set a record for corporate bond issuance and 2026 is on track to sustain...
Post‑crisis Outlook: Fed Likely to Raise Rates
If the crisis blows over in the way most investors expect, i think the next Fed move will be a hike
Babies Beget Babies. That’s Both a Problem and a Policy Lesson.
The new NBER paper finds that exposure to babies increases the desire for children, creating a self‑reinforcing loop that may explain about 13% of the recent fertility decline. Economists argue that policies such as child subsidies, affordable housing, and better...
Bessent Says “Inflation Is Transitory” But the Fed Should Wait for Clarity
Bessent told Semafor that the recent surge in prices is "transitory" and that the Federal Reserve should adopt a "wait‑and‑see" approach before lowering interest rates. March consumer‑price data rose three times faster than February, largely because of higher oil and...
DXY Slides, Rate Expectations Lose Grip on Dollar
Fed rate expectations are drawing less influence the bearings of the Dollar. The $DXY's slide - really a 'path of least resistance break' back into range - outpacing a modest shift in FOMC rate cut expectations: https://t.co/X6AzVkA5Mb
Car Insurance Premiums No Longer Blamed for Core Inflation
Haven't heard people blaming rising car insurance premiums as the explanation for excessive core inflation in a while
Producer Prices Up 4.6% Annually; Fed Should Hold Rates
Producer Prices in the US rose 4.6% per year over the last 5 years and over 25% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/sm0qnaFXWD
Fed Nominee Warsh Stuck in Uncontrollable Inflation Cycle
The Economist reports that Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is caught in an inflation vice. As I've been saying for some time, the Fed won't be able to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. https://t.co/KKXAW30dzz
Fed Holds, Iran Shock Won’t Stubbornly Raise Inflation
Bessent says the Fed is right to wait and see how the economy handles the Iran shock but expects it will not seep into inflation expectations, allowing cuts to eventually resume. "If ever there was ‘Team Transitory,’ it’s this."