Standardized Sentiment in the Time of Trump
The latest standardized consumer‑sentiment composite fell to 47.6, missing the 51.6 consensus and down from 53.3 in the previous period. The chart tracks the University of Michigan, Conference Board and Gallup surveys from Q4 2019 through Q2 2026, all demeaned and scaled by standard deviation. A sharp, synchronized dip aligns with the 2025 “Liberation Day” event, highlighting heightened volatility during the Trump era. The divergence underscores growing uncertainty among households.
Fed Builds Detailed Tariff Dataset to Gauge Price Impact
Pro-tariff commentators: Look, we imposed tariffs and there was no fundamental change in the inflation trend line Careful Fed analysis: Our approach to assess the effects of these new U.S. tariffs on consumer prices accounts for their sequential introduction and leverages...
BEA's Next Move: Legal Services CPI Drop vs PPI
There was a large fall in CPI legal services. Now the question is whether BEA will use this in the PCE, where it would cut about-3.5bps from the core rate, or whether they will use the PPI (which they prob...
Grocery Price Growth Cools as Overall Inflation Surges
U.S. grocery price growth decelerated in March, with food‑at‑home inflation easing to a 1.9% year‑over‑year increase, down from 2.4% in February. The broader consumer price index, however, jumped to 3.3% as gasoline surged more than 21%, driving overall inflation higher....
Inside the Consumer Price Index: March 2026
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March 2026 CPI report breaks down consumer spending into eight weighted categories, with food, shelter and clothing together representing over 60% of the index. Medical care, housing and food have each more than doubled in...
CPI Hits 3.3% Confirming Inflation’s Stubborn Rise
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped from 2.4%/yr in February to 3.3%/yr in March. That didn't surprise me. The three-month annualized CPI back in February was precisely 3.3%/yr. As I've been saying, the Fed is not going to be able to put...
Inflated Week in Review
Egg prices fell to their lowest level since early 2022, marking a 12‑month decline, while the gas component of the CPI surged to its biggest monthly gain since 1967. The ISM Services PMI showed a 21st consecutive month of expansion,...
CPI Inflation Rate Up Nearly +1%, As Expected
The U.S. Consumer Price Index for March 2026 rose 0.9% month‑over‑month, pushing the year‑over‑year inflation rate to 3.3%, the highest level in nearly two years and exactly on forecast. Core CPI eased slightly to 2.6% YoY, coming in 10 basis...
Inflation Up 3.3% in March Amid Highest Inflationary Period Since 2022
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the steepest rise since June 2022, as the six‑week war with Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude toward $100 a barrel. Gasoline surged 21.2% and all fuel categories rose...
15 Months Into ‘Golden Age,’ American Mood Hits Record Low
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a preliminary 47.6 in April, the lowest reading in the gauge’s decades‑long history. Analysts had expected a reading near 55, so the drop far missed consensus. The plunge ends 15 months...
Fed Accepts Low Job Growth, Won’t Tolerate Wage Surge
The war has undeniably complicated things. Initially, the Fed aimed to dismiss the rise in Goods PCE inflation as a temporary blip until it passed. However, they are now starting to accept the reality of low job growth as the...
US Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Amid Iran War
Americans are not happy with the war in Iran. Consumer sentiment just fell to a record low in April. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers has data back to 1952. The 47.6 reading in April is lower than the tariffs last...
Mortgage Calculator: Here’s How Much You Need To Buy a $400,000 Home at a 6.37% Rate
Mortgage rates slipped to a 6.37% average for 30‑year fixed loans in the week ending April 9, a 9‑basis‑point decline from the prior week’s 6.46% peak. The dip translates into a $2,012 monthly principal‑and‑interest payment for a buyer putting 20% down...
Every Trump Policy Proves Inflationary, Says Analyst
Dog-walking and Kernenfreude aside, all of Trump's policies have been--to one degree or another--inflationary. War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs: inflationary Politicizing the Fed/loose money advocacy: inflationary Immigration: inflationary Cuts to renewables: inflationary Corruption: inflationary Trump cheerleaders will mumble something about the deregulation fairy and the productivity fairy...
CPI Trend Indicator Remains Bullish for S&P 500
Today's CPI report was in line, with the core better than expected. Our long-term CPI trend indicator doesn't care about economists' expectations or excluding short-term moves in volatile sectors. It simply compares the headline CPI to its 6-month average. It...
Latest CPI Data Show Inflation Jumping. This Is What It Means for Advisors
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, driven by a 10.9% jump in the energy index and a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2% month‑over‑month, missing expectations. Analysts...
Blue-Collar Careers Were Supposed to Be AI-Proof. So Why Is Hiring Down 40 Percent?
Job openings for blue‑collar trades such as plumbers, electricians and factory workers have dropped 40% since 2022, bringing hiring levels down to the 2009 recession peak. The decline is driven by higher tariffs, rising interest rates that have stalled the...
Fed, Mortgage Rates, Likely to Hold Steady on Latest Inflation Report
The March Consumer Price Index showed a 0.9% monthly rise in headline inflation, driven largely by a 21% jump in gasoline and a 31% surge in fuel oil. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2% month‑over‑month, staying...
Gas Prices Spike Inflation to 3.3% – A Real Test for Consumers and Housing This Spring
The U.S. March consumer price index rose to a 3.3% year‑over‑year headline rate, driven largely by a 21.2% month‑over‑month jump in gasoline—the steepest increase since the series began in 1967. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.6%...
Consumer Price Index up 0.9%, Fueled by Rising Price of Gas
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped 0.9% in March, largely propelled by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices amid the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran. Over the past year, gas has risen 18.9%, while fuel oil climbed 44.2%, pushing the overall...
Bond P/E Triangle Signals Potential 4.5% Yield Spike
If we invert the 10-year bond yield we get a “P/E” ratio for bonds. The chart below shows that since the 2022 rate reset, the bond P/E has been stuck in a tight triangle. That triangle could be a base,...
Dollar Slips as CPI Fails to Rattle Fed’s Transitory View, Islamabad Talks Awaited
The U.S. dollar eased after March CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation spiking on energy but core inflation remaining subdued. The softer core reading reinforced the Federal Reserve’s view that the inflation shock is transitory, keeping near‑term rate‑cut...
Consumer Prices Spike as Expected Oil Shock Hits March CPI Report
U.S. CPI for March surged, rising 0.9% month‑over‑month to a 3.3% annual rate, driven largely by energy costs. The energy index jumped 10.9% year‑over‑year, with gasoline prices soaring 21.2%—the biggest monthly gain since 1967. Excluding food and energy, core inflation...
US CPI Set to Jump as Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, with analysts warning of a sharp rise driven by a 1% jump in oil prices to $98.6 per barrel amid fragile US‑Iran ceasefire talks. Futures...
Real‑time Shelter Shows Zero Inflation, Official CPI Overstated
Big moves in CPI focused on oil and commodity impacts Shelter continues to be a place where real world indicators are much lower than official stats. Our real time shelter indicator over trailing 12m shows 0 price increase vs official shelter which...
Anchored Inflation Expectations Reduce Fed Urgency on Oil Shocks
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The public's expectation that inflation will remain low minimizes the second-round effects of oil price increases, which (in a virtuous...
Trump Makes History With Near-Record Energy Cost Surge
U.S. headline inflation surged in March 2026, driven by a sharp rise in oil prices that lifted the all‑items CPI to its highest level since June 2022. Gasoline prices in Southern California peaked at $6.79 per gallon, a local record...
US Inflation Much More Likely to Be Transitory This Time Around
U.S. headline CPI jumped 0.9% in March, largely because gasoline prices surged 21.2% month‑on‑month. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, coming in below analysts’ forecasts. The report highlights weaker corporate pricing...
U.S. Treasury $22 Billion 30‑Year Bond Auction Draws 2.39 Bid‑to‑Cover, Yield Near 4.88%
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion of 30‑year bonds, achieving a 4.876% high yield and a 2.39 bid‑to‑cover ratio, the lowest demand since November. The result highlights a market tilt toward front‑end securities amid geopolitical uncertainty and mixed inflation data.
March Inflation Sets I Bond’s New Variable Rate at 3.34%
The Treasury announced that the March Consumer Price Index has set the new I Bond variable rate at 3.34% annualized, reflecting a modest slowdown in six‑month inflation. This rate applies to all newly issued I Bonds and will be combined with the...
Core Inflation Stable, Yet Energy Shock Drives Airfare Surge
Core inflation in March was relatively muted despite a massive surge in overall inflation due to the Iran war. But there are signs that the energy shock is rippling across the economy. Airfares, for example, notched a 2.7% gain for...
Middle East Tensions Push CPI to 3.3% in March
The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% in March, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.3% as Middle East tensions drove energy costs sharply higher. The energy index jumped 10.9%, led by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices, which...
US Inflation Near Forecast, Boosts Rate Mean‑Reversion Play
The US inflation report was clearly impacted by the Hormuz crisis, but it once again came very close to the Nowcast IQ (https://t.co/00SY5qimgl) estimate, just 4 bps off on core and slightly more on headline. Our dovish lean was also...
War Data Reveals Soaring Inflation, Explained in Two Minutes
We just got the first hard economic data showing the effects of the war, and it shows inflation surging. Lemme take two minutes to explain what it all means while talking into a baby koala's butt. https://t.co/uYzeWmSssj
US Sentiment Hits Record Lows Across Multiple Surveys
america's not ok three separate surveys -- the umich consumer sentiment survey, the general social survey, and the gallup world happiness survey -- all put US self-reported sentiment at record-low levels https://t.co/RHx0k3LLK1
Tariffs and Rising Oil Prices Fuel Dual Inflation Surge
A careful look at goods prices from RBC: "beneath the surface, the ramifications of tariffs are building, and spiking oil prices will add to pre-existing tariff price pressures with both core and headline inflation rising in tandem" https://t.co/s3UBEqwL6N https://t.co/3ATUrAvoZg
Stagnant Wages Can't Keep Pace with Rising Prices
The reason it feels hard to get ahead right now is because it's hard to get ahead right now. Wages are barely keeping up with prices, and prices are just starting to heat up. https://t.co/Lb4BnQl6Un
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Since 1961
This month's Michigan index of consumer sentiment is at a historic low of 47.6. By way of perspective, it's so bad that pollsters have to adjust the Y axis on their chart that goes all the way back to 1961. https://t.co/3lnVNHVdpQ
Pomp Dismisses CPI Data, Demands Immediate Fed Cut
CPI drops one tenth of 1% Pomp: Tariffs work, deflation is happening, the Fed needs to immediately cut to 0. CPI rises 6 tenths of a %. Pomp: 'The CPI is fake' https://t.co/xH6v2pB7Kh
March CPI Reveals Direct Cost of Trump's War
The March CPI gives us the first direct measure of the cost of Trump's war https://t.co/ffGoUMp3S3
Why Wages Stagnated and How to Reverse It
The eternally-wise @arindube has an important new book out on why wages have stagnated over the past generation or two, and what we can do to un-stagnate them. Check out his essay in Time unpacking this https://t.co/OoEwnOrBXe
Fed Fooled World Into Ignoring 4% Inflation
The greatest trick the Fed ever pulled was convincing the world 4% inflation didn't exist. https://t.co/2nQtRmlH9U
March CPI Jumps to 3.3%, Fuel Fuels Surge
Consumer prices were up 3.3% in March from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Friday, much hotter than February’s gain of 2.4% and driven by higher fuel prices. https://t.co/6hdNDDIjdn via @WSJ
March CPI Spikes to 3.3%, Fed Cut Odds Zero
Overall US CPI moved up to 3.3% in March, the highest level since April 2024. The odds of a Fed rate cut this month: 0% https://t.co/LVl4ndgw8H
Energy Spikes Lift CPI 0.9%; Core Steadies at 0.2%
An eye-popping 0.9% *monthly* rise in the CPI was driven mainly by rising energy prices. Core inflation rose a more sedate 0.2% in March. https://t.co/547aq6hkvo
US Inflation Hotter Yet Below Forecast, Oil Drop Helps
⚠️ US inflation 🔥hotter than prior month Cooler than forecast 🥶 With Oil Drop, inflation fears easing CPI MoM 0.9% in line (Prev 0.3%) CPI YoY 3.3% (Forecast 3.4%, Prev 2.4%) Core CPI MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%) Core CPI YoY 2.6% (Forecast...
Fuel Oil Soars 44%, Used Cars Slip 3%
Price changes over last year (March CPI report) Fuel Oil: +44.2% Gasoline: +18.9% Gas Utilities: +6.4% Electricity: +4.6% Transportation: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.8% Medical Care: +3.7% Overall CPI: +3.3% Shelter: +3.0% Food at home: +1.9% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2%
Gasoline CPI Hits Record Rise; Supercore Climbs 0.18%
-Gasoline CPI up the most on record -Supercore CPI MoM +0.18%, now 3.14% YoY h/t @livesquack @macromicrome
CPI Meets Forecasts; Core Inflation Eases Below Expectations
• CPI: +0.9% MoM (est. +0.9%) • CPI: 3.3% YoY (est. 3.3%) • Core CPI: +0.2% MoM (est. +0.3%) • Core CPI: 2.6% YoY (est. 2.7%)
Gas CPI Component Spikes 21.2%, Biggest Rise Since 1967
Biggest monthly rise in the gas index component of CPI since 1967 - up 21.2%. The fuel oil component is up 30% https://t.co/3U67sTDxMt https://t.co/HDIylsibXc