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Understanding Open Market Operations: The Fed's Tool for Monetary Policy
Open market operations (OMOs) are the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for adjusting the money supply by buying or selling Treasury securities. Permanent OMOs involve outright purchases or sales to shape long‑term rates, while temporary OMOs use repos and reverse repos to fine‑tune reserves. Through these actions the Fed moves the federal funds rate, which cascades to mortgage, credit‑card and other short‑term rates. The article also contrasts OMOs with quantitative easing, highlighting their distinct scale and purpose.
Americans Hate the Economy so Much, They’re Buying $22 Smoothies
Americans are tightening budgets on meals, cars and everyday items, yet premium grocery chain Erewhon is thriving by selling $22 superfood smoothies and opening three new stores in 2025. The specialty food market has surged to $219 billion, a 150% increase...
Supply‑driven Market Renders Rate Hikes Ineffective, Boosting Hard Assets
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
Slower Wage Growth, Inflation Could Spell Trouble for Employee Earnings
Employers added 178,000 jobs in March, reversing a 133,000‑job loss in February. However, average hourly earnings rose only 0.2% month‑over‑month, the weakest pace in nearly five years. Rising oil prices have lifted inflation expectations to about 3% this year, threatening...
Significant Downgrades to Fourth-Quarter 2025 GDP, What Happened?
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 real GDP down to a 0.5% annualized gain, a 0.2‑percentage‑point drop from the second estimate and far below the Bloomberg consensus of no change. The downgrade marks the second consecutive negative revision...
The More Important Inflation Rate
The Iran‑Houthi conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp jump in the one‑year inflation swap, which rose 62 basis points since Feb. 27, while the 12‑to‑24‑month forward rate (1y1y) has increased only 18 basis points....
Payscale Labor Market & Wage Trends Report: Technology Wage Growth Outpaces All Industries
The Q1 2026 Payscale Labor Market & Wage Trends Report shows technology wages climbing 6.8% year‑over‑year, the fastest growth among all sectors. Overall turnover cooled to 7.1%, creating a "low‑hire, low‑fire" environment while demand surged for health‑care support and skilled‑trade...
Inflation Held Sticky at 3% as U.S. Headed Into War with Iran, Key Fed Gauge Shows
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index held at a 3% annual rate in February, while headline inflation ticked up to 2.8%, both in line with expectations. Consumer spending rose 0.5% month‑over‑month, but personal income slipped 0.1%, underscoring mixed...
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2026 Is Projected to Rise 3.4% Year-Over-Year
FactSet’s median forecast shows the consumer price index rising 3.4% year‑over‑year in March 2026, the strongest gain since April 2024 and above the 12‑month average of 2.6%. The core CPI is expected to increase 2.7% YoY, while February’s CPI posted...
Unpacking the Healthcare Hiring Boom
The healthcare and social assistance sector added roughly 1.7 million jobs since the start of 2024, while all other industries collectively shed about 56,000 positions. Almost half of the new jobs are concentrated in nursing care facilities and services for the...
CBO Projects Automatic 20% Social Security Cuts Within Six Years
The Congressional Budget Office warned that, under current law, Social Security checks could automatically decline by 20% to 25% within six years, cutting a typical couple’s monthly benefit by up to $900. The agency attributes the looming shortfall to a...
Wells Fargo Study Finds 64% of Parents Supporting Gen Z Adults Face Financial Strain
Wells Fargo’s 2026 Money Study reveals that 64% of parents with Gen Z children still provide financial support, and 56% say that help is squeezing their own budgets. The survey links the strain to a weak entry‑level job market, rising...
Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure Warm Again. GDI Rescues Q4 Growth
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% month‑over‑month in February, an unrounded 0.367% increase that marks a third consecutive warm reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists had expected another elevated figure, underscoring persistent price...
Iran‑U.S. Ceasefire Sends Oil 16% Lower, Spurs Stock Rally, Dollar Hits 4‑Week Low
President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week ceasefire with Iran sent U.S. crude down 16.4% to $94.41 a barrel, sparked a 2.5% jump in the S&P 500, and drove the dollar to its lowest level in four weeks. Traders now...
U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Triggers Global Bond Rally, 10‑Year Yields Drop 8 Bps
The announcement of a two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran sent U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields down 8 basis points to 4.23% and sparked a broad rally in sovereign bonds worldwide. The move erased a sizable risk premium on...
Fed's Inflation Woes Predate Iran War, Stalled at 2%
NEW: Long before the Iran war began, the Fed had an inflation problem, as Feb's PCE data confirms today. Progress on reaching the 2% target had essentially stalled out, while a closely-watched metric tracking ex-housing services inflation was stuck well...
Key Fed Inflation Rate Ran Hot Before Oil Prices Jumped; S&P 500 Futures Slip
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, in line with expectations, while core PCE climbed 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, keeping the 12‑month headline rate at 2.8% and core inflation at 3%. Personal income slipped 0.1% and...
Commerce Department Report Shows 3% Core Inflation in February
The Commerce Department reported that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 3% year‑over‑year in February, a slight dip from January’s pace. Headline inflation increased 2.8%, both figures matching Dow Jones consensus. The Federal Reserve’s March minutes signaled that a...
Spending Surges While Income Falls, Spring Outlook Uncertain
JUST IN: American consumers were clearly continuing to spend (orange bars). February was the strongest spending since August. But take a look at personal income (blue bars). It was actually negative in February. Income has not always kept up with spending...
Income Dips, Consumer Spending Holds Steady in February
"Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February ... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent)." Income below expectations (spending as expected) https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2026
Iran Says U.S. Breached Ceasefire, Anthropic's Court Loss, Rate Cut Odds and More in Morning Squawk
The Dow surged over 1,300 points even as Iran accused the United States of breaching their cease‑fire agreement, sparking concerns over oil‑tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and nudging crude prices higher. In Washington, a federal appeals court denied...
US February PCE Inflation 2.8% Y/Y vs 2.8% Expected
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation held steady at 2.8% year‑over‑year in February, matching the consensus forecast. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose to 3.0% YoY, up from 2.8% in January and also met expectations. While headline...
US Initial Jobless Claims 219K vs 210K Estimate
U.S. initial jobless claims climbed to 219,000 last week, missing the 210,000 forecast and nudging the four‑week average to 209.5K. Continuing claims eased to 1.794 million, also below expectations. The data suggests a modest softening but the labor market remains historically...
US Final Q4 GDP +0.5% vs +0.7% Expected
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the final fourth‑quarter 2023 GDP figure, showing a 0.5% annualized increase—below the 0.7% consensus estimate. The downgrade stems mainly from a downward revision to investment, while consumer spending and corporate profits still posted...
PCE Inflation Data Set to Drive Market Volatility
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – April 9, 2026 🚨 PCE inflation day — this is THE key macro read for the Fed 👀 expect volatility 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - PCE m/m (Feb): Exp 0.4%; Prior 0.3% 0830 - PCE y/y (Feb): Exp 2.8%;...
Q1 GDP Poised for Rebound as Fragile Ceasefire Clouds Outlook
The median nowcast from CapitalSpectator forecasts a 2.3% rise in U.S. first‑quarter GDP, rebounding from a modest 0.7% gain in Q4. This optimism depends on a fragile cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict, which still clouds the outlook for Q2. However,...
The U.S. Government Is Spending $88 Billion a Month in Interest on National Debt—Equal to Spending on Defense and Education...
The Congressional Budget Office reports that the U.S. Treasury paid roughly $529 billion in net interest during the first six months of FY2025‑26, about $88 billion each month. This interest outlay matches the combined spending of the Defense and Education departments and...
The Daily Feather — The Lunch Break War
The Daily Feather’s “Lunch Break War” piece reminds readers that ceasefires seldom end hostilities, citing the Iran‑War as a modern example and the 1896 Anglo‑Zanzibar War as the record‑shortest conflict. The post pairs this historical note with a dense chart...
The Big Picture
The United States is sending mixed economic signals: a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report suggests labor market resilience, while the Treasury Department has declared the nation fiscally insolvent. Global trade appears robust, yet investors are fleeing private‑credit funds amid fears of deteriorating...
US CPI Report Coming up Tomorrow, What to Expect?
The March U.S. Consumer Price Index is slated for release tomorrow, with economists projecting a 0.9% month‑over‑month rise in headline CPI, up from 0.3% in February, and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. Core CPI is expected to climb 0.3% m/m, translating...
NY Fed Survey Shows Job‑Seekers’ Confidence Drops to 44%, Lowest Since Pandemic
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations shows the probability workers assign to finding a new job within three months fell to 44%, a pandemic‑era low. The dip comes as the labor market adds 178,000...
US Treasury 10‑Year Auction Draws $39 Bn at 4.28% Yield, Bid‑to‑Cover Falls Below Average
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $39 bn of ten‑year notes on April 8, 2026, achieving a high yield of 4.282% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.43, below the ten‑auction average of 2.50. Direct domestic demand rebounded, but softer indirect (foreign) participation points to...
Buffett & I Reject Fed’s 2% Inflation Goal
Warren Buffett doesn't believe in the Fed's 2% inflation target. Neither do I. If the goal is "price stability," - why ANY inflation? That 2% compounded is robbing your purchasing power. Here's a thought: What if prices should actually go DOWN? Everyone...
Early-Year Releases Surpass Expectations Across the Board
It’s still early in the year but it seems like most of the big releases have been beating expectations.
Pre‑war Data Shows Slowing Spending, Rising Inflation
The economy is not looking very good just now. Spending growth is down and inflation is up. And that's pre-war data https://t.co/ougoyhN3Ef
Q4 2025 GDP Growth Stalls to 0.5%, Tariffs Blamed
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s DOWN from 4.4% the prior quarter. TRUMP TARIFFS = ECONOMIC WRECKING BALL. https://t.co/Rm9so1qJXE
Q4 GDP Slows to 0.5%, February Income Stalls
Some bad economic numbers came out today. 4th quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.5%. And income growth was down in Feb. https://t.co/GBM4v964nK https://t.co/Hxd5nWNidS
Trump Pushes Rate Cuts, Fed Resists Higher Interest
Trump and the FED. They are fighting over interest rates. Trump wants them to go down drastically. The FED wants to keep them higher. Listen to Matthew Piepenburg his vision here: https://t.co/DjayphsEa4
10‑Year Yield Above 4.4% Proves Unmanageable
Well that is a problem given that in the last couple weeks, the MOVE Volatility Index and US policymakers’ actions (TACO’d every single time 10y hit 4.4%) empirically showed that the US & world cannot handle >4.4% on the 10y. #YouDownWithYCCYeahYouKnowMe
Deficit Shrinkage Far Smaller Than
In the real world, the deficit fell by $56 billion last year, less than one-tenth of what Kevin claims, but he did get the direction right this time, unlike his claims about inflation falling
Shrinking Workforce Caps Real GDP Growth to 1‑2%
You don’t get to 1% labor force growth with two decades of sub-replacement level births per woman and negative net migration. You just can’t. You actually have a shrinking labor force, since it’s aging, too. That means 1%-2% real GDP...
February Real Income Turns Negative, Signaling Economic Strain
Important point from Ben -- Americans' income was already **negative** in February once you adjust for inflation. People were having to dip into savings or turn to credit cards to fund their spending, even before gas prices jumped to $4. This is...
Treasury Yields Surge Above 4.9% Amid CPI, Auction Pressure
Between tomorrow's CPI and today’s 30-year auction, Treasuries are feeling the heat. That ceasefire euphoria has already faded - 30s are back north of 4.90%
PCE Inflation Stays at 2.8%, Exceeding Fed Target
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index held steady in February at 2.8%/yr. This is ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr and the February forecast of 2.6%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE....
US Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in February
JUST IN: Consumer prices in the US increased 0.4% in February, per the PCE index
PCE Confirms 3% Inflation Amid Recent Shock Waves
Today's PCE report showed once again this is a 3% inflation 🌎. On Facts vs Feelings this week, we discussed the 5 big inflation shocks the past few years. https://t.co/dbovthdUvY
Core PCE Model Hits Near‑exact Forecast
Going to give myself a little pat on the back for core PCE model at +0.37% and actual print +0.367%
Core PCE Climbs, Fed Should Tighten Despite Energy Shock
In February, PCE less food and energy up .4% for the second straight month--12-month change remained 3.0%. Before Mideast energy shock Fed should have a tightening bias https://t.co/CuTWT2XgUi
Refinancing $8 Trillion Will Spike U.S. Interest Costs
Hey @grok, what happens to interest payments when the U.S. government has to refinance $8 trillion of debt next year at higher interest rates?
Swap Market Predicts Brief 4% Inflation Spike, Then 3%
Inflation may reach 4% for a fleeting moment this year.. but then back near 3% in rather short order, according to the swap market. If you disagree, go out and trade it. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/mN7udXNlCV