The Market Brief
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased geopolitical tension, sending U.S. equity indexes higher. The S&P 500 is on track for its largest weekly gain since November, while the Dow Jones aims for its strongest weekly rise since June. Market participants are eyeing the March CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET, expecting it to reflect elevated energy prices tied to the conflict. The S&P has closed higher for seven straight sessions, a streak that historically precedes solid six‑month performance.
March Inflation Hits 3.3% as Energy Prices Surge
JUST IN: Inflation soared in March to 3.3% y/y--> the highest annual rate since May 2024. The war in Iran is squeezing middle income and lower income households. **Inflation in March alone rose 0.9%. That’s the biggest one-month jump since June...
March CPI Rises Modestly, Inflation Eases Below Expectations
"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in March." CPI 3.3% YoY, Core 2.6% YoY Slightly less...
Connecticut Payrolls Hit All-Time High Even as Trump Eliminates Federal Jobs
Connecticut’s payrolls reached a new high in January 2026, adding 5,300 jobs, driven largely by a 5,000‑job gain in the private sector. Federal employment in the state declined by 1,200 positions, reflecting ongoing cuts under the Trump administration. Total nonfarm...
Higher‑than‑expected CPI Likely Rattles Markets
CPI Inflation out at 8:30. The expected number is 3.4% vs 2.4%. How will the market react? 🤔
US PMI March: Broad Growth, Slowing Expansion Across Sectors
US sector PMIs: "March data pointed to higher levels of business activity in five out of seven US sectors, but in almost all cases the pace of expansion slowed since the previous month." -S&P Global
House Republicans Face $80‑$100 Billion Funding Fight Over Iran War
House Republicans are bracing for a bruising showdown over how to pay for the U.S.-Iran war, with the conflict already costing nearly $30 billion and a supplemental request estimated at $80‑$100 billion. Lawmakers warn the funding fight could reshape the federal budget,...
The “Ceasefire” Won’t Save The Economy — with Mark Zandi
In this episode of Prof G Markets, chief economist Mark Zandi discusses the economic fallout from the recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire, focusing on the $2 million per‑ship toll Iran plans to impose on the Strait of Hormuz. Zandi explains how the ceasefire...
Circle’s USDC Revenue Model Stressed by Falling Interest Rates
Circle Internet Group’s fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of $770 million, 95% of which came from reserve income on USDC holdings, is being squeezed by a declining reserve return rate. The macro‑sensitive model forces the firm to accelerate diversification as interest‑rate headwinds threaten...
Consumer Spending, Engine of the U.S. Economy, Is Under Strain
Higher fuel prices are pushing grocery, travel and other everyday costs upward, while a jittery stock market is dampening discretionary spending. Consumer spending, which fuels about two‑thirds of U.S. economic output, has kept the economy out of recession despite five...
Women Are Getting Most of the New Jobs. What's Going on with Men?
The U.S. Labor Department reports that 348,000 of the 369,000 jobs created since the start of President Trump’s second term went to women, driven largely by a 390,000‑job surge in health care. Men captured only 21,000 of those new positions,...
Stocks Waver With Shaky Cease-Fire in Focus
Investors await the March CPI report, which economists expect to show a 0.9% monthly rise and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase—the steepest annual gain since May 2024. Brent crude has climbed nearly 2% to above $97 a barrel, keeping inflation pressures high....
‘We Owe It to the Next Generation’ to Get National Debt Under Control, Says Think-Tank Boss, as U.S. Borrowing Hits...
The Congressional Budget Office reports a $1.17 trillion deficit for the first six months of FY2026, pushing total federal debt past $39 trillion. Interest obligations alone exceed $1 trillion this year, while $1.7 trillion of outlays are tied to mandatory programs such as Social...
FX Daily: First Inflation Test
The market awaits the March US CPI report, expected to show a 0.9‑percentage‑point monthly jump and a 3.4% year‑on‑year increase, with core inflation only modestly higher. A higher‑than‑expected headline could keep the dollar firm, but the Fed is likely to...
Fed Faces Record $245 Billion Cumulative Loss
⚠️The Fed's losses are MASSIVE: The Fed's cumulative losses sit at near a RECORD $245 billion. This represents the gap between what the Fed pays commercial banks in interest on their reserves and what it earns on its bond holdings. 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-federal-reserve-s-cumulative-losses-are-massive
US Inflation Remains Tame Despite Oil Price Spike
How bad is the US inflation picture? The spike in oil prices will push up March CPI later today, but - under the hood - inflation is well behaved. Yesterday's PCE reading for February showed core services inflation (blue) slowing....
DON'T BE A VICTIM OF THE MATH: The M2 Explosion That's Coming, Inevitable Debt Monetization & How to Protect Your...
The United States faces a projected cumulative deficit of $22 trillion over the next ten years, far exceeding official forecasts that assume no new wars or recessions. To fund this gap, the Federal Reserve will likely resort to massive balance‑sheet expansion,...
Final GDP Numbers Signal Troubling Economic Outlook
"Even though we had to dust off the final read on GDP, what it told me…is not good." https://t.co/B12qnALWAS #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth https://t.co/pqjvjdKsks
Labor Market Outlook Spotlights Expanding Gig Economy Trends
The Weekly Quill — The Gladiator Gig — The QI Research Labor Market Outlook https://t.co/HZXa8upTEl #federalreserve #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/aqsKO388pR
“Low-Hire, Low-Fire” U.S. Economy Holds As External Risks Mount
U.S. unemployment claims ticked up to 219,000 last week, staying near expectations and signaling a still‑stable labor market despite heightened geopolitical risk. Inflation pressures are rising, with headline CPI projected to climb about 1% in March and core PCE hovering...
Higher Oil Prices Set to Spike CPI, Live Trade
Today we'll see the first impact of higher oil prices on CPI. The news could rock the markets like no other piece of fundamental data. We are going to trade it LIVE and see if we can get FUNDED in one trade. Join...
Tariffs Push Inflation Up, Cut Fiscal Revenues
Remember tariffs? They are the main reason inflation remains above target, having added 0.8% to goods inflation. They are fuelling fragmentation and supply chain pressure. Oh, and fiscal revenues are running 25% below projections, and falling. Other than that, tariffs are great....
Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income
The latest U.S. data releases show personal income excluding transfers slipped 0.1% month‑over‑month, falling short of Bloomberg’s +0.4% consensus. February household consumption also edged lower than analysts expected. Both metrics are among the two primary series the NBER Business Cycle...
Goldman: 10% Gas Price Rise Boosts Inflation
Goldman on what a 10% increase in natural gas prices means for inflation > https://t.co/RDkqRBzqV2
US Debt Costs Remain High, Slightly Less Ugly
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly: US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025 https://t.co/DGqm2fqkjX https://t.co/HaOX0c5eRE
Costco March Sales Jump 11% as Consumer Spending Holds Up
Costco Wholesale posted $28.41 billion in net sales for the five‑week period to April 5, up from $25.51 billion a year earlier – an 11% rise. The retailer’s 31‑week total also climbed to $173.26 billion, signaling that household spending remains strong despite inflation pressures.
Six‑Month Core PCE Inflation Hits Biggest Rise Since June
Six-Month Core PCE Inflation (still before Iran War) Jumps by Most since June 2024. The Fed Needs to Pay Attention. “Market-Based Core PCE price index,” which excludes the imputed housing components, spiked by the most since Feb 2023 https://t.co/KOLueRyxu5 https://t.co/DPUqjECgON
Tariffs Account for Full Core Goods Inflation, Adding 0.8%
Will just say, this is about 3x the 0.3pp estimate that some Fed officials, including Gov Waller, had in the summer of 2025.
A Big Inflation Report Is Due Friday. How to Trade the Upcoming CPI Report
The March Consumer Price Index, due Friday, is the final data point in a week marked by a cease‑fire in the Iran conflict, a PCE report that confirmed sticky inflation, and a weaker‑than‑expected GDP reading. Strategists such as B. Riley Wealth’s...
Core Inflation Hides the True Rise in Living Costs
Ouch…. Government inflation data *excluding* food and energy. Now imagine what the real number looks like. https://t.co/TK6XDWuZDb
Job‑changer Wage Premium Resurfaces as Growth Accelerates
It's a low churn labor market ... but ... The wage premium for job changers that disappeared in 2024 appears to have returned. Wage growth ticked up to 3.8% for the 3-months ended March for job stayers (vs 3.5% in December). Wage growth...
U.S Consumer Spending Meets Caution
Morgan Stanley strategist Michelle Weaver discusses the mixed signals in U.S. consumer spending, noting that while overall spending remains positive, consumer confidence is slipping. Her AlphaWise survey shows a net spending outlook of +18% but a net confidence outlook of...
Oil Shock Inflation Temporary, Fed Should Keep Cutting Rates
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
Ground Beef Prices Surge Over 20% YoY, Hitting Affordability
Ground beef prices CONTINUE TO SOAR. Prices are higher than during the pandemic and up over 20% from a year ago. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/20cGSN0AIn
Consumer Spending Inches up, Reflecting Gloomy Inflation Sentiments
Consumer spending nudged up 0.1% in February after a flat January, even as confidence slipped and inflation pressures intensified. Core personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% month‑over‑month, marking a 3% annual gain. Gasoline prices surged 39% to $4.16 per gallon following...
US Labor Participation Hits 1977 Low, Threatening Growth
US labor-force participation fell to 61.9% in March, the lowest since 1977, excluding the pandemic episode. WORK IS BECOMING UNFASHIONABLE. FEWER WORKERS = SLOWER GROWTH. https://t.co/gyKlvb212z
Non‑residential Investment Barely up 2.4%
Non-residential investment increased at just a 2.4% rate in the 4th quarter. Good thing Trump keeps talking about that $18 trillion in foreign investment coming in, otherwise no one would know anything about it.
Mortgage Rates Trickle Just a Bit Lower
Mortgage rates edged lower on April 10, 2026, with the average 30‑year fixed rate slipping to 6.39%, a 0.02‑percentage‑point drop from the previous day. The modest decline followed headlines of de‑escalation in the Israel‑Lebanon conflict, which temporarily eased oil‑price concerns....
Dallas Fed: Feb PCE Inflation at 1.
The Dallas Fed trimmed mean inflation gauge suggests firm February PCE inflation reflected larger increases in a smaller subset of items. Trimmed mean PCE inflation printed at a 1.8% annualized rate in February. The 12-month reading fell to 2.3%, the lowest since...
Trump Calls U.S. “Hottest Country” Amid Economic Slump
Pretty funny how with incomes lagging, and U.S. growth slowing to a trickle, Trump still claims we're the "hottest country." Maybe that's a weather forecast due to global warming.
Consumers Spend Through the Squeeze as Income Slips
Household spending continued to rise in February while personal income slipped 0.1%, creating a widening gap between earnings and outlays. Real disposable income fell 0.5% and the personal saving rate dropped to 4%, eroding financial buffers. Consumers are compensating with...
Falling Real Disposable Income Caps Inflation Potential
Real disposable income... not trending well... hard to have big inflation with that line going down.. https://t.co/ifjcNPDQ6w @augurinfinity https://t.co/TAgJqWN1nY
Q4 GDP 0.5%, Weak Q1,
0.5% Q4 GDP.. weak Q1 GDP tracking... but 2026 recession (technical recession) chance not high at 26% @kalshi https://t.co/rx3rkIwTm6 https://t.co/2QWbRgAEpj
Very Low Jobless Claims Continue
Jobless claims remained exceptionally low, with initial filings edging up 16,000 to 219,000 and the four‑week moving average reaching 209,500. Continuing claims dropped sharply to 1.794 million, the lowest level in two years. Year‑over‑year figures showed a 1.8% decline in initial...
Inflation Surge: CPI Expected 3.3%, Dollar Under Pressure
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
2026 PCE Durables Prices Surge, Double 2025 Pace
2026 is already tracking to be another abnormal year for PCE durables prices, up 1.5% since December, double the pace at this same point in 2025. Over the prior 5 non-pandemic years, durables prices were up 0.3% on average through...
Fed's 2% Target Deemed Myth; No Near-Term Hikes
JPMorgan’s Bob Michele went on to say that the Fed’s 2% target is increasingly a “myth,” and that US central bankers are tacitly accepting a higher rate as acceptable. So even if inflation stays sticky, he doesn’t see rate hikes...
Core CPI Must Rescue Markets Amid 0.9% Crude Spike
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
US Jobless Claims Rise Amid Growing Middle‑East Conflict
The US Initial Jobless Claims just released at 219K, INCREASING from 203K the prior week. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS QUIETLY BLEEDING INTO THE US LABOR MARKET. https://t.co/Mab6oRpgWw
GDPNow's 5.4% Forecast Was Way Off
Remember the administration crowing when the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model said in early Jan that Q4 GDP growth was 5.4%? Latest official estimate: 0.5%. Moral: Ignore "tracking" models. And Trump's econ team.