Mortgage Rates Fall on Iran Ceasefire: Mortgage and Refinance Interest Rates Today
Mortgage rates slipped for the first time in over a month, with the average 30‑year fixed rate falling to 6.37% from 6.46% after the United States entered a cease‑fire with Iran. The decline mirrored a dip in the 10‑year Treasury yield, which briefly dropped below 4.3%, prompting a modest rally in equities. Current national averages show 30‑year purchase rates at 6.10% and refinance rates near 6.21%, offering limited relief to buyers. Analysts warn the reprieve could be short‑lived as yields and oil prices begin to climb again.
US Money Markets: Slow Calm to Steady State
The Iran conflict has pushed short‑term inflation expectations higher, leaving the 2‑year break‑even rate near 3.1% and raising the risk of actual inflation hitting 4%. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate steady for the next few...
Core PCE Climbs 0.4% for Third Consecutive Month
"Wall Street forecasters estimate the core PCE index (due Thursday) rose 0.39% in February, which would round to 0.4% for the third straight month" -Nick Timiraos, WSJ
Michelle W Bowman: Supporting Small Businesses
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman highlighted the outsized role of small businesses, which employed 59 million Americans and generated $16 trillion in revenue in 2023, accounting for roughly half of private‑sector jobs and 44% of GDP. She noted that community and regional...
After Ceasefire Rally, Focus Turns to Inflation
The Schwab Market Update highlighted how a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East is shifting market focus back to inflation and economic data, while noting that shipping disruptions and fragile peace keep risks alive. Key data points include the upcoming...
Fed Minutes Reveal Widening Policy Divide as Inflation Risks Cloud Rate-Cut Outlook
The Federal Reserve’s March 17‑18 meeting minutes reveal a growing split among policymakers on whether to cut rates or keep them steady as inflation remains above target. The Fed left the federal funds rate range at 3.50‑3.75% and warned that...
To Raise or Not to Raise Interest Rates? ‘Several’ Fed Policymakers Are Divided on Rate Hikes, March Minutes Show
The Federal Open Market Committee kept its policy rate at 3.5%‑3.75% during the March meeting, citing uncertainty from the recent US‑Iran conflict. Minutes reveal a split among officials: some fear lingering inflation could demand hikes, while others see labor‑market risks...
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Understanding the Economic Cycle and Its Four Stages
The article outlines the four‑stage economic cycle—expansion, peak, contraction, and trough—and notes that U.S. cycles average about five and a half years. It explains how the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses GDP and other metrics to date cycles....
Cleveland Fed Quarterly CPI Inflation Estimate Surges to 5.5 Percent for Q2
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast shows a steep rise in second‑quarter inflation, with the annualized CPI projected at 5.5 percent and the PCE index at 4.6 percent—both far above the Fed’s 2 percent target. Core inflation remains modest, with core CPI near 2.6 percent...
Ceasefire May Reduce Case for Fed Cuts as Inflation Risks Persist: Timiraos
A ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased the growth‑downside risk that previously bolstered the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts. While markets have nudged up the odds of easing, analyst Nick Timiraos argues that inflation pressures remain...
Economic Trends Echo Past Cycles, Not Exact Repeats
Took my inspiration from Jackson Browne’s 1977 hit Running on Empty. History doesn’t repeat, but often rhymes. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/april-2026-economic-compass.html
Pre‑crisis US Deficits and Debt Issuance Stayed Below 2% GDP
Before the global financial crisis, in 06 and 07, the US fiscal deficit was under 2 percent of GDP and note issuance was under 1 pp of GDP in 07. That was also the time of peak...
ISM Services PMI: Continued Expansion In March
The Institute for Supply Management reported a March Services PMI of 54.0, signalling continued expansion but a slowdown from February. The Prices Index rose as oil and fuel costs increased, while the Supplier Deliveries Index showed weaker performance. The Employment...
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Understanding the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Economic Insight
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a diffusion index compiled monthly from surveys of supply‑chain executives, measuring new orders, production, employment, deliveries and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The Institute for Supply Management...
Fed Ignoring Small Businesses Amid Crushing Interest Rates
"Small businesses are choking on high interest rates. Job insecurity that comes out of of the New York fed, just down the street where – from where we are right now, the Fed is not listening to small businesses, and...
Fed Meeting Minutes Show Policymakers Weighed Economic Impact of Iran War
Federal Reserve officials highlighted the economic fallout from the U.S.-Iran conflict in the March 17‑18 FOMC minutes, noting that a prolonged war could lift energy prices and feed core inflation. The committee voted to keep the policy rate steady in...
Iran Ceasefire May Not Quell Mortgage Rate Volatility
Mortgage rates slipped on April 8 after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, with the 30‑year fixed rate dropping from 6.44% to 6.38%. Analysts say the dip is likely temporary, as lingering uncertainty over energy prices and inflation...
Homeowners Prioritize Functionality, Multigenerational Spaces and AI in 2026 Renovations
Block Renovation’s How America Renovates 2026 report finds 42% of homeowners say the economy influences their plans, yet 38% will absorb higher costs and continue. The study highlights a shift toward functional, multigenerational homes and a surge in AI‑assisted design.
Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?
The latest analysis of average hourly earnings, expressed in CPI‑deflated 2025 dollars, shows a modest decline from early 2025 levels. Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast and Bloomberg consensus, real wages are trending lower, while the AIER Everyday Price Index paints...
US Job Loss Signals End of American Hegemony
Economic signals flashing red: US shed 92k jobs in February (vs +60k forecast), unemployment to 4.4%. Potential NATO withdrawal, Iran no-deal exit imminent. Root issue: Post-WWII dollar supplanting pound inflated currency, favoring finance over manufacturing - 80 years running. Current policies...
Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Iran Risk, Lean Toward Hikes
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
CoBank Quarterly: Economic Fallout of Rising Fuel and Energy Costs Will Be Most Acute in Rural America
CoBank’s latest quarterly report warns that surging fuel and energy prices will hit rural America hardest, even as the U.S. economy posted over 2 % GDP growth in Q1 and unemployment held near 4.3 %. Higher gasoline and diesel costs are expected...
Fed Sees Slower Inflation Progress Amid Tariffs, Oil, Fragile Expectations
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and...
Yield Curve Flip Signals Growth Risks Amid Fed Tightness
10Y–2Y yield curve keeps grinding lower, but the type of flattening has shifted from “bear” (short rates up) to “bull” (long rates getting bid). That suggests the bond market is growing more cautious about US economic growth, while the Fed...
Why More Americans Are Leaving the Workforce
The U.S. labor force participation rate slipped to 61.9% in March, the lowest level since 1977 when the pandemic is excluded. The decline is driven primarily by accelerating retirements among baby‑boomers and tighter immigration flows, which together shrink the pool...
PMI Expansion Triggers Market Risk‑On Spree Since 2003
This has a 100% record. Every single time in the last 23 years that PMI has entered expansion, after contraction, it has signalled the start of a heavy risk on period for markets. I've used Russell 2000 here to take us back...
Trump Again Proposes Eliminating Manufacturing Extension Partnership
President Donald Trump’s FY 2027 budget proposal seeks to eliminate the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP), a NIST‑run program that aids small and medium‑sized manufacturers. The cut is part of a broader $993 million reduction to NIST, which would also scrap its Circular...
Workers Say They’re Staying Put Out of Fear, Not Enjoyment — and It’s Likely Costing Employers
A new Economist Enterprise study finds the U.S. quit rate has fallen to a decade‑low of 2%, as workers cling to jobs out of fear rather than satisfaction. About 62% say long‑term security outweighs new opportunities, and 30% have stopped...
March 2026 CPI Preview: What to Expect
The Center for Economic and Policy Research expects the March 2026 Consumer Price Index to spike sharply, driven primarily by a surge in gasoline prices. Food costs and higher import prices are also slated to lift the headline rate, while...
Homebuyer Mortgage Demand Drops Annually for the First Time in over a Year, as War Fuels Uncertainty
Mortgage demand slipped for the first time in over a year as applications to purchase a home fell 7% year‑over‑year and refinance requests dropped 4% YoY. The average 30‑year fixed‑rate contract slipped to 6.51% from 6.57%, but remains above the...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Anatomy Of The US Labor Market
The latest U.S. jobs report showed a rebound in payrolls and a dip in the unemployment rate, but Dr. Ed and Elias argue the headline looks misleading. Their webcast points out that the inflation‑adjusted Earned Income Proxy fell as price...
GDP 2.3% Growth, CPI Near 3% by Year-End
"Consensus estimates from Bloomberg now project GDP at 2.28% and headline CPI inflation at 3% to end the year." -Josh Schafer
Same‑store Sales Hit YTD High, up 7.6% YoY
Same-store retail sales rose by YTD high 7.6% YoY for the week ending Apr 4 (6.9% prev).
Online Labor Demand Increased in March
The Conference Board‑Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index climbed to 109.1 in March 2026, a 3.8% rise from February’s revised 105.1 reading. The gain lifts the index 2.7% above its level a year earlier, signaling expanding online job vacancies across...
Fed Misses 2% Target 60 Months, Global Inflation Persists
According to the FT, the FED has MISSED its 2% inflation target for 60 STRAIGHT MONTHS. Across the world, 3 out of 4 developed economies and 1 in 2 emerging economies are missing their targets as well. THE GLOBAL INFLATION GENIE REMAINS...
Liquidity and ISM Metrics All Trending up Globally
Total Global Liquidity is rising Global M2 is rising US Total Liquidity is rising US M2 is rising China Total Liquidity is rising ISM is rising Try not to over think it.
JP Morgan Chief Warns of “Significant” Interest Rate Shocks
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the escalating conflict in Iran could trigger sharp oil and commodity price spikes, keeping inflation elevated and forcing interest rates higher than market expectations. He cited the war in Ukraine, Middle‑East hostilities, and...
Fed Flags Rising Inflation, Labor Risks Amid Iran Conflict
Fed officials see higher risk in inflation and labor market, while the Iran war clouds outlook: FOMC minutes @seekingalpha https://t.co/38nIdN2Imk
2‑Year Yield Near Historic Tightness at +0.14%
The 2yr yield is currently just 14bps above the Fed Funds Rate That's historically tight - it has averaged +0.3ppts since 1976 @sonusvarghese https://t.co/lbr63DqekD
The Longest Economic Boom Ever?
The United States has kept its unemployment rate below 5% for 125 straight months since the fall of 2015, eclipsing the previous record set between 1965 and 1970. The author argues that the pandemic‑driven recovery was not a typical credit...
Fed Chair Choice Won’t Drive Mortgage Rates, Here’s Why
I've heard from Redfin agents that some homebuyers are waiting for President Trump's pick for Fed Chair to lower mortgage rates before they buy. In this video I explain where that logic goes wrong and what actually moves mortgage rates: https://t.co/x7Qk1wyckH
FOMC Minutes Show Sharp RMO Cut,
FOMC minutes confirm substantial reduction in RMO in April and a reserve average expectation of 3TN. Probs still grow soma 20BN per month tho. Do the plumbers among us agree that they will full stop RMO's if a when...
Macro Data Deluge Competes with US‑Iran Tensions
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
Strong Job Numbers Spark Rate‑cut Debate, Wage Growth Key
Low jobless claims and even job growth at 33,000 raise the question of rate cuts, as long as wage growth remains above 3%
Pre‑tariff Import Rush Skews Trade‑deficit Perception
In early 2025, firms rushed imports ahead of the new tariffs, temporarily widening the trade deficit and building inventories. By late 2025-early 2026, trade flows smoothed back out. Comparisons to the earlier surge misleadingly suggest a sharp decline in the...
Winter Drag Fades, Q2 GDP Rebound Likely
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 8, 2026) Harsh winter weather dragged on growth from December through February. With that headwind fading, a solid Q2 GDP rebound looks increasingly likely. How much of a bounce are you expecting? https://t.co/abrVYc0cb0
Fed Shifts Focus: From Reserve Supply to Demand Liquidity
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
AI Isn’t Causing 55+ Labor Force Decline, Aging Is
Beware attempts to blame AI for economic trends that aren't actually trends. @WSJ used big drop in labor force participation for 55+ as jump-off for story about AI spurring early retirements But: 55+ LFPR drop ENTIRELY due to aging population 🧵 https://t.co/6Guye6lX6I
Dimes Surge as 10‑yr Yields Dip Below 4.25%
Tplex: Dimes also fired up this morning +23/32nd's 10 Yr Notes below 4.25% (4.238% -10.5 bp's)
She’s Actually Talking About Betting on NFP Data
Many people making fun of this but I think she just means betting on monthly BLS payroll data (NFP)