Realtor.com Finds Price Cuts Surge in Texas, Florida and Arizona Markets
Realtor.com’s February 2026 data reveals that price reductions appeared on at least 20% of active listings in nine major metros, with Texas, Florida and Arizona seeing the sharpest uptick. Elevated mortgage rates, higher insurance costs and rising property taxes are forcing sellers to trim asking prices, reshaping the market for buyers, sellers and lenders alike.
JPMorgan CEO Dimon Warns of Oil Shocks, Inflation and Tax‑driven Exodus in Shareholder Letter
In his annual shareholder letter, JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict could trigger sustained oil and commodity price shocks, pushing inflation higher and forcing the Federal Reserve to consider rate hikes. He also warned that New...
Used Car Prices Soar, Signaling New Inflation Pressures
Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Jumped. That’s How it Started in 2020 when Broad Inflation Took Off. These new inflation pressures suddenly building up in the pipeline are concerning https://t.co/B4HOh7mQGF https://t.co/9BkcLbGOSG
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Dot Plot: Understanding Types, Uses, and Federal Reserve Insights
A dot plot is a simple visual tool that places each data point as a dot on a two‑axis chart, highlighting distribution, central tendency, and dispersion. The two dominant designs are the Cleveland style, which emphasizes position over length, and...
Fed Data Signals Consumers Pulling Back on Credit Card Spending
Federal Reserve data released on April 7 shows total consumer credit grew 2.2% year‑over‑year in February, up from 1.8% in January. Non‑revolving credit—auto, student and personal loans—accelerated to a 2.8% annualized pace, while revolving credit card balances slowed to a 0.6%...
Tariff Threats Spike Energy Prices, Fuel Summer Inflation
This is the tariff playbook all over again. Step 1 - make a crazy threat. Step 2 - make a series of "deals" threatening armageddon two weeks out. The difference here is oil and gas prices won't just revert to...
White House Priorities on Full Display in FY2027 Budget Request
The White House unveiled its FY2027 budget request on April 3, proposing a $73 billion reduction from FY2026 enacted levels. The plan slashes the Environmental Protection Agency’s funding by 52%, cutting $4.6 billion and trimming $2.5 billion from clean and drinking water loan...
U.S. Jobs Rebound in March, but We Aren't Out of the Woods Yet
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. non‑farm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3% from 4.4%. Health‑care led the gains, accounting for roughly 40% of the new jobs, while the public sector...
JPMorgan Sees Zero Fed Cuts Through 2026, Warns Borrowers Amid Oil Shock
JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli told CNBC that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at all through 2026, and may even hike 25 basis points in late 2027. He attributes the hawkish stance to a resilient labor market,...
March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast projects March headline CPI rising at an annualized quarter‑on‑quarter rate of 5.2%‑5.9%, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast blends recent CPI and PCE releases with daily oil and gasoline price data, indicating inflation remains...
Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Iran War Price Pressure
Consumer inflation expectations surged to 3.4% for the next year in March, driven by a 9.4% anticipated rise in gasoline prices amid heightened geopolitical tension with Iran. The New York Fed reported wage‑growth expectations slipping to 2.4%, the lowest since...
Cleveland Fed Projects Highest Month-Over-Month Inflation Levels Since June 2022
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast model indicates that March’s month‑over‑month CPI rose 0.84%, the strongest increase since June 2022, while core PCE inflation is projected at 0.23%. Market pricing on CME’s FedWatch shows a 63.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will...
March CPI Report: Iran War Is Expected to Boost Inflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March CPI on April 10, with headline inflation projected to rise 0.8% month‑over‑month and 3.1% year‑over‑year. Energy prices, spurred by the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict, are expected to jump roughly 10% and dominate the headline...
US Tech Sector Lost Jobs in March, AI Enters Layoff Calculations
The U.S. technology sector shed roughly 15,000 jobs in March, even as the broader economy added 178,000 positions and the national unemployment rate held at 4.3%. CompTIA’s analysis of BLS data shows tech unemployment at 3.9%, slightly below the overall...
AI Eliminating 16,000 U.S. Jobs Every Month, Goldman Sachs Reports
Goldman Sachs economists estimate AI has eliminated about 16,000 net U.S. jobs each month over the past year. Their analysis separates AI's substitution effect, which removed roughly 25,000 jobs monthly, from its augmentation effect, which created about 9,000. The displacement...
White House’s Proposed Budget Slashes SBA Funding by 67 Percent
The White House’s FY2027 budget proposal slashes the Small Business Administration’s funding from $1 billion to $329 million, a 67 percent reduction. The cut trims $309 million from entrepreneurial‑development programs, eliminates the SCORE mentoring service, and ends the $100 million community‑navigator pilot, while preserving a...
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: March 2026
The latest analysis shows the P/E10 ratio has surged to 37.1, well above its historical average of 17.7, while inflation sits at 2.66%—inside the long‑standing “sweet spot” of 1.4%‑3.0%. At the same time, the 10‑year Treasury yield has risen to...
Key Fed Official Says Interest Rate Hike Is Possible as Gas Prices Soar
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that soaring gasoline prices, now $4.14 per gallon, could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates if inflation remains stubborn. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.5‑3.75% since December, but...
Core PCE Holds Steady at 3% Amid Iran Shock
Wall Street forecasters estimate the core PCE index (due Thursday) rose 0.39% in February, which would round to 0.4% for the third straight month. Because the Feb 2025 comparison is favorable (it was even higher a year ago), the 12-month rate...
6% Yield Trigger Could Force US Debt Restructuring
See my 10Y yield targets then read this quote by Jeff Gundlach: “Well, I think my base case is that the long-term interest rates on treasuries will move higher until such time as they get to a level that is difficult...
How Federal Spending Is Distributed to the Elderly, Working Age, and Children
Kent Smetters’ Penn Wharton analysis re‑allocates the 2025 U.S. federal budget by age group, revealing $2.7 trillion directed to the elderly, $1.2 trillion to working‑age adults, and $448 billion to people under 26. The remaining $2.6 trillion covers all‑ages programs such as defense, net...
Rising Rates Weigh on Mortgage Activity
Mortgage activity slipped in March as the average 30‑year fixed rate climbed to 6.37%, up 13 basis points from February. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Market Composite Index fell 4.3% month‑over‑month, though it remains 30.8% above a year ago. Refinance applications...
What Keeps Big Bank CEOs up at Night
In this episode, David Brancaccio breaks down Jamie Dimon's latest shareholder letter, highlighting the CEO’s concerns about persistent inflation, rising government debt, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions that could tighten credit conditions. Experts Ari Schwader and Pavlina Czerneva explain how these...
Flat Yields Signal Recession Concerns over Inflation
Should we be concerned that bond yields and mortgage rates are flat/down in the midst of current events? Especially on the back of a hot jobs report... You can call it "wait or see" or maybe things are a lot worse...
Jefferson Delivers Most Hawkish Fed Speech Since 2023
According to Fedlock, today's speech from Fed Governor Jefferson was his most hawkish since 2023 https://t.co/rgs6erEO5l
Bond Traders Risk Being Wrongfooted by 2022 Playbook, UBS Warns
UBS chief strategist Bhanu Baweja warns bond traders that markets are pricing a 2022‑style, coordinated central‑bank tightening in response to the Iran war, which may be unrealistic. He argues that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England...
Fed Dovish Shift Boosts Bullish Momentum, Watch ES
The Fed's dovish shift is music to bulls' ears as inflation continues cooling. Markets are already pricing in easier monetary policy ahead. Tomorrow we'll be watching how ES reacts to this momentum using our DOTS indicator for precise entries. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...
Efficient Land Use: Hidden Deflator Amid Inflation Talk
I was just at the Dallas Fed, and the conversation was dominated by one question: How long is inflation going to remain a problem? While the main focus is energy and AI, there is a major deflator hiding in plain...
Trump Budget Proposal Once Again Targets Affordable Housing, Homeless Assistance
The Trump administration’s FY 2027 budget proposes a 13% cut to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, shrinking its discretionary budget to $73.5 billion. It would eliminate the $3.3 billion Community Development Block Grant and the $1.3 billion HOME Investment Partnerships Program, and...
Iran Deal Won’t Reverse Permanent Economic Damage
Even a quick Iran deal won't undo the damage already done. Stock losses, years of elevated oil prices, and a $350B defense budget increase that quietly translates to $3–4K in added taxes per household. The economy doesn't just snap back. Some of...
Fed Hawkishness, Weak Wages, Energy Surge Push Yields Higher
Trifecta of a hawkish Fed, slowing wage growth and surging energy prices seems like a bad combo at a time when household debt delinquencies were already mounting. The 10-year Treasury yield hasn't been this high relative to the growth rate...
The Fed, Congress, and the President: The Constitutional Authority to Make Money
Christine Desan argues that the Federal Reserve is not merely an independent regulator but the institutional embodiment of Congress’s constitutional prerogative to create money. The paper traces the historical shift of money‑making from monarchs to legislatures, showing how the U.S....
Walmart Signals Recession, Yet Bullish Signals Remain
The Walmart indicator is flashing recession. But that’s not the full story. On the latest Jim Paulsen Show, we break down what it’s signaling, the implications of the oil shock, and the bullish indicators most investors are missing. 🎙️https://t.co/6nYM17bPMj 🍏https://t.co/JjLRDxh7gP 📺https://t.co/FzjaKKwQ5m
Fed Likely to Cut Rates by Year-End, Says Analyst
In-depth interview with @MilkRoadMacro, covered lots of ground but my prediction for the Fed is different than most analysts: because of what the war and inflation may do to the economy, I think the lower rates by year end, not...
Businesses Are Spending for the Future Despite Uncertain Times — a Good Omen for the Economy
Business investment climbed for the seventh time in eight months, reaching an all‑time high as firms poured capital into robotics, artificial intelligence and high‑performance computing. Core orders for durable goods rose 0.6% in February, lifting the year‑over‑year increase to 5.1%....
55+ Workforce Participation Hits 20-Year Low at 37%
JUST IN: Workforce participation among Americans 55+ drops to 37%, the lowest in over 20 years
Budget Cuts Ahead After Reaching Infrastructure Spending Peak
The new budget will start paring this back, but we seem to have hit peak infrastructure spending this year/next year in terms of real outlays for completed work... https://t.co/b8om2bYNrQ
Trump's $73B GovTech Budget Cuts Target NIH, NSF and Security Programs
President Donald Trump unveiled a FY2027 discretionary budget that trims $73 billion from domestic programs, including a $5 billion reduction to the National Institutes of Health and a 55% cut to the National Science Foundation. The plan reshapes federal research, health tech...
Fed's March/April Inflation Forecast Jumps to 3.3%, Threatening Wall Street Rally
The Federal Reserve’s latest nowcast pushes 12‑month inflation to 3.25% for March and 3.28% for April, an 85‑basis‑point jump that could stall the Fed’s easing cycle and weigh on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow, which have recently flirted with...
US Luxury Spending Jumps 12% YoY Through March
"US luxury spending was up 12% year-over-year (YoY) through March 21" - BofA card spending data https://t.co/Al6IqAUC7l
Healthcare Hiring Forces Other Sectors to Cut Jobs
[@opinion] If: -the labor force isn’t growing -healthcare adds at least a couple hundred thousand jobs a year then: -non-healthcare industries (85% of the labor market) have to be constantly shedding a modest number of jobs https://t.co/GVeOyRT44p
ABC: Construction Employment Rebounds by 26,000 in March
Construction employment rose by 26,000 jobs in March, marking a 0.7% year‑over‑year increase and bringing total industry growth to 57,000 positions since last year. Nonresidential construction led the gains with 12,200 new jobs across building, specialty trade, and heavy‑civil categories....
Fed's Interest on Reserves Isn't a Politician Spending Shortcut
not sure what’s going on at cato but the fed paying iorb does not “allow politicians to funnel mass spending programs through the Fed’s balance sheet”
Only Free Markets, Not Central Banks, Set Rates
"Central banks in general—and the Fed in particular—are on a mission impossible. They don’t know what the interest rate should be. Nobody does. That’s something only a voluntary market of savers and borrowers, dealing in honest money, can determine." #DebtSpiral
Long-Term Bullish, Near-Term Cautious
Jeremy Siegel notes that the U.S. economy remains resilient, with March payrolls exceeding expectations and unemployment edging lower. However, a still‑tight labor market, accelerating M2 growth, and rising oil prices from an ongoing geopolitical conflict make near‑term Federal Reserve easing...
Manufacturing Bounces Back in March Amid Price and War Woes
U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in March, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbing to 52.7, a modest 0.3‑point gain over February and marking the third straight month of growth. While the New Orders Index cooled, the Production Index accelerated, and the...
Fed Walks a Policy Tightrope as Iran Conflict Clouds the Outlook
The Federal Reserve is navigating a precarious policy landscape as the Iran war rattles energy markets and fuels inflation uncertainty. Officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock, argue for keeping the policy rate steady while monitoring labor market and price...
The Daily Feather — Reelin’ in North America
The Daily Feather’s latest post highlights a sharp dip in North American consumer confidence, driven by a cost shock that is straining both U.S. and Canadian service sectors. Graphs in the piece show U.S. services grappling with rising expenses, while...
BofA Predicts 0.3% Core Inflation, 1% CPI Rise
BofA: We expect core inflation to increase by 0.3% m/m in March We forecast a 1.0% m/m (0.99% unrounded) increase in headline CPI owing to a 10.6% m/m jump in energy prices. PCE should be cooler but after a hot start to...
Workers Transitioning to Jobs, Unemployment Declines, BofA Says
BofA: More workers have recently been moving into employment and fewer have been flowing into unemployment https://t.co/Xl6kLBsiMC