US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold, leaving two‑year Treasury yields near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34%. The market’s steadiness reflects lingering uncertainty from the Iran‑U.S. conflict, especially after President Trump extended the deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Strong March payroll data added a brief bond‑bearish tilt, but overall demand remains muted as investors weigh growth, inflation and geopolitical risks. Treasury auctions totaling $119 billion are slated to begin Tuesday amid weak appetite.
Services PMI Could Flip Market Sentiment
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – April 6, 2026 🚨 Services data in focus today — markets watching for confirmation on growth vs slowdown 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 1000 - ISM Services PMI (Mar): Exp 55; Prior 56 1000 - ISM Services Business Activity: Prior...
As Minimum Wages Rise in 21 States, McDonald’s and Burger King Offer a Cautionary Tale
California's $20 fast‑food minimum wage, effective April 2024, boosted hourly pay by roughly 25% for workers at large chains. Internal data from Burger King and McDonald’s franchises show daily labor hours fell 15‑20% and overtime disappeared, even as job applications...
US Debt Crisis: Spending, Not Revenue, Is the Real Issue
$40 Trillion in debt but need more money? 🤔 If they took all of Jeff Bezos’ wealth, it would only run the U.S. government for 12 days. Most governments have a spending problem, not a revenue problem. Time to get...
M2 Surges >10% Annualized, Fed Cuts Now Unlikely
While all time high gets the headline, the annualized growth rate in this latest monthly money supply report important to watch—over 10%. This makes fed rate cuts harder to see
Zillow Warns Worsening Housing Affordability as Mortgage Rates Climb and Labor Market Stalls
Zillow warned that climbing mortgage rates and a volatile labor market are worsening U.S. housing affordability. The firm highlighted a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, modest wage gains, and revised job‑growth figures that signal higher volatility and fewer...
Minimum Wage Shifts Labor Outcomes for Marginal Imm
New @nberpubs: "Immigrants at the Margin: Labor Market Effects of the Minimum Wage" https://t.co/77L73xAozW https://t.co/rULy0k3oGs
U.S. Work Hours Fell After 2000 Thanks to Health Benefits
New @nberpubs: "Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?" https://t.co/xbwDGmS5Ub "U.S. hours per person declined after 2000 owing mainly to the rise of government health benefits provided to the non-employed." https://t.co/8Mwr2rFs0G
JBS Pauses Colorado Beef‑packing Strike as Union and Company Resume Talks
JBS agreed to restart contract talks with United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7, prompting thousands of striking workers at its Colorado plant to return on April 7. The pause follows a dispute over a sub‑2% wage offer, safety concerns and a...
ISM Services PMI Set to Dip, Employment Eases
Economic Calendar for Mon. April 6th 10:00am - ISM Services PMI (Mar): Expected 55; Prior 56 - ISM Services Employment: Expected 51.7 Prior 51.8 - ISM Services Prices: Prior 63
Trump Threatens Strikes on Iran’s Power Plants and Bridges if Hormuz Stays Shut
President Donald Trump warned that the United States will target Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The threat sent oil futures above $100 a barrel, lifted U.S. gasoline to over $4 per...
US Economy Stays Strong Amid High Gas, Global Outlook Darkens
“… Despite high gasoline prices, the U.S. economy is holding up. Abroad, though, interest rates and inflation risks have shot up, fuel is being conserved, and economic forecasts are darkening…” — @greg_ip https://t.co/tifsrZ3N3S
Fed Misses 2% Inflation Target for 60 Consecutive Months
´ The US Federal Reserve has missed its 2 per cent inflation target every month for 60 months in a row.’ https://t.co/GrigzoG3zS
Elizabeth Warren Wants Wealth Tax On Jeff Bezos To Cover Insulin, Free School Meals—Crypto Analyst Calls It Moving Capital From...
Senator Elizabeth Warren has unveiled a 3% wealth tax targeting Jeff Bezos' roughly $222 billion fortune, aiming to fund insulin subsidies and free school meals. The levy would still leave Bezos with about $215 billion, prompting sharp criticism from cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo,...
US External Deficits Mirror Unsustainable Domestic Borrowing
1/7 Martin Wolf, in an important piece on unsustainable current account imbalances, makes a point that most American economists miss: "the counterpart of external deficits tends to be unsustainable domestic borrowing." https://t.co/h7ob7Aac6A via @ft
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in March
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) slipped to 105.72 in March, down from a revised 105.84 in February. The index, a leading composite for payroll employment, fell as five of its eight components turned negative, including consumer sentiment that...
Social Security COLA Could Exceed 4% in 2027, Boosting Retirement Income
The OECD now projects U.S. inflation at 4.2% for 2026, a sharp rise from the Federal Reserve’s 2.7% estimate. If the CPI‑W matches that forecast, the Social Security Administration could issue a cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) of over 4% for 2027,...
Trump's $1.5T Defense Push Endangers Social Security
My take on the affect of Trump's push for higher defense spending in @FortuneMagazine: “Once you push defense to $1.5 trillion, that puts Social Security on even shakier ground." https://t.co/feois7TZug
Busy Week Ahead: ISM, FOMC Minutes, PCE, CPI
ISM Services PMI tomorrow FOMC Minutes Weds PCE Price Index Feb Thurs CPI March Fri https://t.co/osn2U4OfYf
Fed Likely Holds Rates as Markets Price Out 2026 Cuts Amid Oil Shock and Middle‑East Tensions
Traders using the CME Fedwatch Tool assign a 99.5% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on its April 29 meeting, effectively pricing out any rate cuts for the rest of 2026....
Dems Eyeing 2028 Want Huge Tax Cuts — but Big Hikes for the Rich
A cohort of 2028 Democratic hopefuls is championing sweeping tax cuts for working‑class and middle‑income Americans, including proposals to eliminate federal income tax for roughly half of all workers and make the first $75,000 of married‑couple earnings tax‑free. At the...
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Threatens UST Long‑end Auctions
This is a high-stakes week for the bond market. The recent spike in crude prices - fueled by the conflict in Iran - will show up in March’s inflation data. The consensus on Wall Street is a headline print...
March Adds 178K Jobs, February Loss Revised to 133K, Highlighting Labor Volatility
The U.S. Labor Department said March saw a net gain of 178,000 jobs and a 0.1‑point dip in the unemployment rate, while February’s figures were revised to a loss of 133,000 jobs. Analysts warn that the swing underscores a fragile...
Derivative‑Income ETFs Pull Record Inflows; JEPI and JEPQ Lead with $78B AUM
Derivative‑income exchange‑traded funds have logged some of the strongest net inflows of any ETF category this year, with JPMorgan’s Equity Premium Income (JEPI) and Nasdaq Equity Premium Income (JEPQ) together managing $78 billion. The surge reflects heightened demand for covered‑call strategies...
Energy Shortage Drives Job Loss, Dollar Collapse, Pax End
92,000 jobs lost. Unemployment rising. The dollar cracking at its foundation. Mainstream economists are calling this a surprise. I have been warning about this for years because unlike conventional theory, my models actually include money and energy. Labor without energy is a corpse....
Record Number of Americans Can't Pay Credit‑Card Bills in Full, Signaling Debt Surge
A fresh analysis reveals a record‑high proportion of U.S. consumers are unable to pay their credit‑card statements in full each month, underscoring a deepening personal‑finance strain. The trend threatens household budgets and could pressure lenders as delinquencies rise.
Support Equal Tax Rates, Reject $100K Filing Threshold
I agree with @vkhosla on the need to restructure the tax system including taxing capital gains at the same rate as income. But increasing the filing threshold to $100K is a terrible idea. When people don't pay taxes they have...
Warsh Nomination Stalls, Raising Fear of Fed Policy Gridlock
Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve remains stalled as Senate Banking Committee ranking member Thom Tillis refuses to advance a vote. The impasse fuels worries that prolonged uncertainty could hamper monetary policy and trigger a shutdown of key...
Savings Surplus Flips to Spending Glut, Straining Builders
Real economy "builders" need money. They can source money from investors or consumers. Since Covid, investors and consumers had money from massive fiscal and monetary policy actions. Builders got all the money they needed from consumption plus more from...
Deficits Surge, Supply Chains Shift in Multipolar Era
2020-2026 1. We go from 3% fiscal deficits for 30-40 years to 6-8%. Bush: $150B to $400B Obama: $1.1T to $400B Trump Biden: 1.4T to $3T 2. Go from “just in time” supply chains in a unipolar world, far fewer global conflicts to a multipolar...
The High Price of Everything, Explained
Vox’s Explain It to Me podcast breaks down why everyday essentials—gasoline, coffee, and milk—are hitting record prices. Gas prices surge as the Iran‑Houthi conflict chokes the Strait of Hormuz, limiting crude supplies and forcing the U.S. to import heavier grades...
Existing Home Sales at 1.29M, Well Below Normal
We will get this updated this week with the new existing home sales report. ...
Data Centers Boost GDP, Healthcare Jobs Keep Unemployment Low
The future unfolding in plain sight: GDP growth propped up by data center construction. Low unemployment propped up by healthcare jobs. https://t.co/aADxNaQXij
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Wealth Managers Brace for Limited Policy Shifts
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% and its dot plot now shows just one cut before the end of 2026. The decision, announced after the March 18 meeting, signals a stable monetary backdrop for wealth...
Freelance Computer Workers Surge Sharply in 2025
Interesting: freelance (self-employed) computer workers have accelerated sharply in 2025. Note this is an index with a 2019 base--self-employed workers are a small fraction of computer occupations. But I wouldn't have necessarily expected this behavior. https://t.co/g6qedjNvb2
CPI to Gauge Oil Shock; Fed Minutes Hint Iran Stance
March CPI on Friday will show how the oil spike hit consumer prices. Meanwhile, Fed Minutes offer a window into policymakers' early thinking on the Iran conflict. 🟢 Open https://t.co/51FrxswWr9
Iran War Pushes Mortgage Rates to 6.46%, Raising Home‑Buying Costs
Mortgage rates jumped to 6.46% this week, the highest level in nearly seven months, as the Iran war fuels energy price spikes and inflation worries. The rise threatens to slow spring home‑buying activity even as inventory gains give buyers more...
Mortgage Spreads High; 8% Rates Demand Booming Economy
With where mortgage spreads are at with the Fed Funds Rate, 8% rates would need a booming economy with job and wage growth picking up again Spreads got as high as 3.11% in 2023, currently at 2.11% https://t.co/25afwLqFtN
2026 Job
Since the bar is so low for job growth in 2026 to surpass 2025, even with normal revisions, we would still be higher than last year. https://t.co/LEfXSmvQST
Trade Data Smacks GDPNow First Quarter Forecast Down to 1.1 Percent
The Fed’s GDPNow model now projects first‑quarter 2026 growth at just 1.1% annualized, down from its earlier 1.6% headline nowcast. The downgrade stems primarily from a sharper‑than‑expected decline in net‑exports, which fell by 0.53 percentage points after February’s trade deficit...
Forward Yield Spike Signals Looming Global Debt Crisis
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...
Inflation or Recession? The Tug of War in Bond Markets
The yield on the benchmark ten‑year U.S. Treasury bond has swung dramatically, dipping below 4% on Feb. 27, spiking above 4.4% by March 27, and then retreating again. The rapid movement reflects heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, notably the American‑Israeli war...
How Trump’s Budget Request Will Keep Everyone Guessing
President Trump’s new budget request leverages the Office of Management and Budget’s pocket rescission tool to push a $1.5 trillion defense increase, $73 billion domestic cuts, and a $350 billion defense aid package via reconciliation. The administration hopes to force Congress into a...
Health Care Wages Diverge as Cyclical Sectors Rise
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not? https://t.co/uhzQRgCXXi Something strange is happening with wages in health care, while cyclical sectors are looking up. https://t.co/g4hKv2rVBo
Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?
The average wage for typical American private‑sector workers increased only 3% over the past six months on a seasonally‑adjusted basis, aligning with pre‑pandemic norms and trailing the 4.1% annualized growth seen from mid‑2023 to mid‑2025. The slowdown is driven almost...
Tom Steyer Proposes AI Token Tax to Fund California Sovereign Wealth Fund
Billionaire gubernatorial hopeful Tom Steyer unveiled a plan to levy a token tax on AI data processing, channeling the proceeds into a Golden State Sovereign Wealth Fund for education, job training and cash dividends. The proposal, aimed at offsetting AI‑driven...
Oil Prices Top $110 as Iran‑Israel Conflict Chokes Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices surged past $110 a barrel on Friday as the Iran‑Israel war tightened the strategic Strait of Hormuz, sending U.S. equities into a modest weekly gain and lifting South Korean stocks nearly 3%. The price shock is fueling inflation...
Iran-Israel Clash Spikes Oil to $112, Pushes 10‑yr Treasury Yield to 4.30%
The Iran‑Israel conflict sent crude above $110 a barrel, prompting the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield to slip to 4.30% from 4.32% as investors reassessed inflation and growth risks. The move sparked a broader sell‑off in sovereign and corporate bonds worldwide.
US Inflation Seen Spiking in First Snapshot Since Iran War
The U.S. consumer price index for March is expected to rise 1% month‑over‑month, the steepest gain since 2022. The jump is largely attributed to a roughly $1‑per‑gallon increase in gasoline prices following the Iran‑Israel conflict. This surge will be the...
Flawed Job Data Masks Tax Revenue Crisis
The jobs reports are not accurate and never have been. America is in SERIOUS trouble because people with jobs pay taxes, and if people don't have jobs, less tax revenue is collected, so less money for the politicians to commit fraud...