Hiltzik: Exploring the Moon While Cutting NASA? Why Trump's 2027 Budget Misfires
The Trump administration’s 2027‑28 budget proposal earmarks $1.5 trillion for defense—a 42% increase and the highest level in U.S. history—while slashing non‑defense spending by $73 billion. NASA’s overall budget would be cut by $5.6 billion (23%) and its science division by $34 billion (47%), eliminating more than 40 projects. The National Science Foundation faces a 55% reduction ($4.8 billion), and the National Institutes of Health would lose $5.9 billion. The plan also trims K‑12 education, IRS resources, and renewable‑energy research, framing cuts as a fight against “woke” and “green” initiatives.
Jamie Dimon Warns Iran War Could Keep Rates Higher for Longer — Why It Hits Your Money
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a renewed conflict involving Iran could disrupt global energy markets, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting U.S. inflation. He explained that supply‑side shocks make inflation “sticky,” forcing the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates...
Fed Rate Cut Looms, Inflation Cools, Bull Market Awaits
Fed's getting ready to cut rates as inflation cools down. Markets love this combo - cheaper money usually means risk-on mode. Going live at 9am NY to trade this bullish setup with our DOTS indicator showing clear signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/23feho9DD6
Jamie Dimon Warns of “Significant Challenges”
J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual shareholder letter that the war in Iran could trigger oil and commodity price shocks, keeping inflation sticky and pushing interest rates above market expectations. He highlighted broader geopolitical risks, including Ukraine,...
Rising PMI Prices‑Paid Index Signals Potential CPI Surge
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 6, 2026) PMI prices-paid indexes are flashing a warning: CPI inflation may be headed higher in the coming months. Is this rebound transitory or the start of something more persistent? https://t.co/7FFNkHNo0W
Stagflation, Debt Surge Prompt Rate Cuts, Boost Real Assets
Ladies and gentlemen: Stagflation at record debt levels. Now imagine being forced to cut rates as inflation reaccelerates. Real assets are about to get very interesting. https://t.co/KMgGEdt8ru https://t.co/hbpbojd6Yg
Rising Rates Push Mortgage Costs Higher, Weigh on Treasury Yields
Interest on the U.S. federal debt is set to overtake Social Security spending, driving Treasury yields up and nudging mortgage rates toward multi‑decade highs. The surge reflects soaring fiscal outlays, especially on defense, and threatens to dampen the housing market.
Trump Tariffs Trigger Another $15‑20 B in Farm Subsidies
Another $15-$20 billion in US farmer subsidies may be coming, thanks (again) to Trump's tariffs: https://t.co/872jQQ9zXA https://t.co/q8my1D6OiM
Investors Prefer Inflation Swaps Over Sketchy 1‑Year TIPS
Glad folks are finally using the inflation swap.. not the often-sketchy 1yr TIPS breakeven rate... remember this chart that made the rounds in March lol https://t.co/pHxDS0B0gu
US Bankruptcy Filings Jump 14% in Q1 2026 as Debt Burdens Deepen
Total U.S. bankruptcy filings surged 14% year‑over‑year to 150,009 in the first quarter of 2026, with consumer Chapter 7 cases up 17% and small‑business Subchapter V elections jumping 67%. Analysts link the spike to lingering inflation, high interest rates and growing consumer...
ISM Services Data Reveals Hidden Stagflation Amid Rally
The S&P 500 rose for a fourth straight day. Markets rallied on ceasefire hope. But the ISM Services report just delivered the clearest stagflation signal since 2022 and nobody noticed. Prices Paid surged to 70.7%. Employment contracted to 45.2%. Service...
Post‑pandemic Inflation Driven by Services Wages, Models Miss
Fed research suggests the inflation engine may be running differently across advanced economies since the pandemic: 1/ More categories continue to see price growth above 3%, with broad-based wage growth in services appearing to be a key driver 2/ Even categories with...
Dimon Warns Credit Cycle Risks as Geopolitical Tensions Spur Bond Market Unease
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and rising oil shocks could reignite a credit cycle, raising corporate and sovereign bond spreads. His annual shareholder letter also highlighted a business exodus from New York, underscoring...
ISM Services Shows Rising Costs, Still Resilient Growth
Today’s ISM Services data reinforces the dual narrative of rising input prices and a resilient real economy. (The one caveat is that while the economy remains expansionary, the momentum wasn’t as robust as in previous months.) #economy #markets #growth #inflation
Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War Vs. Now
The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) now trades about 23 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s median funds‑rate projections for both year‑end 2023 and the end of 2027. This premium emerged after the war in the Middle East shifted market...
Explaining The Highs And Lows From The Latest U.S. Jobs Report
The March 2026 jobs report showed a sharp rebound in employment, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting the largest monthly gain since December 2024 and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.3%, an unexpected decline. Growth was broad‑based, led by...
Construction Sector Leads Job Growth in March
The U.S. labor market posted modest gains in March, with the unemployment rate slipping to 4.3%. Construction led the recovery, adding 26,000 jobs, split between 14,300 in residential and 12,200 in non‑residential projects. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year‑over‑year, continuing...
US Fed's Austan Goolsbee, Beth Hammack Say Inflation Is Flashing 'Orange' Or Worse
Federal Reserve officials Austan Goolsbee and Beth Hammack warned that inflation remains the dominant risk, rating it at least orange and possibly moving toward red amid rising energy costs and lingering tariff effects. They both emphasized the need for tighter...
Oil Spike Triggers Biggest Monthly Inflation Rise Since 2022
We just saw largest monthly inflation increase since 2022. Most people still don't realize exactly why this happened and what the implications are. It starts with oil. Oil is the backbone of the global economy, so when it spikes, the impact doesn’t stay...
“Liberation Day” Plus One Year
A year after the so‑called "Liberation Day," the Yale Budget Lab finds that U.S. tariff costs are now passed through to consumers at a 76% rate, reaching 100% for many durable goods. Fed Chair Jay Powell estimates tariffs are adding...
ADG 4/6: Wait-and-See-Change
BlackRock has filed with the SEC to launch a Nasdaq‑100 ETF under the ticker IQQ, likely charging a 12‑basis‑point fee that undercuts Invesco’s QQQ, which carries an 18‑bps charge and manages about $375 billion. Invesco’s shares dropped more than 5% after...
NY Fed Says March Supply Chain Pressures Highest Since Start of 2023
The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to 0.68 in March, up from 0.54 in February, marking the highest level since early 2023. The increase follows a peak of 4.49 in December 2021, but remains well...
March Services PMI Signals Continued Growth as Costs and Global Tensions Weigh on Outlook
The Institute for Supply Management reported a March Services PMI of 54.0, marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion but a 2.1% dip from February. New orders surged to 60.6, while the employment sub‑index slipped to 45.2, indicating job contraction....
Iran War Photobombs Key Services Sector Snapshot
The article warns that the ongoing Iran conflict is reshaping financial reporting and outlooks for the U.S. services sector. It notes that 1Q earnings guidance across S&P 500 companies has reached a five‑year high, but uncertainty looms for 2Q as geopolitical...
Conflicting Data Undermines Trust in NFP Service Jobs
Best month for service-sector employment (+143k) since December 2024 if you believe the nonfarm payroll report. Worst month since December 2023 if you believe the ISM survey that just came out. Take your pick, because they both can’t be right. Thing is –...
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in 2026: More Volatile?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES) nonfarm payroll series appears more volatile in 2026 compared with the ADP private‑sector estimate. The divergence cannot be clearly tied to the February nurses strike or to the new birth‑death...
Trump’s 2027 Budget Again Aims to Halve EPA Spending
President Trump released his FY 2027 budget proposal, featuring a $1.5 trillion defense allocation—a 44% jump from the prior year—and a 10% cut to non‑defense spending, saving roughly $73 billion. The plan slashes the EPA’s discretionary authority by 52% to $4.2 billion while preserving...
S&P Global Services PMI: First Decline Since January 2023
The S&P Global U.S. Services PMI slipped to 49.8 in March, marking the sector’s first contraction since January 2023 and missing the 51.1 forecast. The dip reflects a near‑stalled 0.5% annualized growth rate, with consumer‑facing services experiencing one of the steepest...
US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged through the next year, leaving Treasury yields largely flat. Two‑year yields hovered near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34% after strong payroll data revived a bond‑bearish bias....
Trump's 2027 Budget Prioritizes Defense, Cuts Social Programs
trump's proposed 2027 budget. defense up $440.9 billion. most everything else — health, housing, education, labor, agriculture — cut.
AI Cuts Payroll, Nudges U.S. Unemployment Higher
Goldman tries to quantify the net effect of AI both substituting for and augmenting U.S. employment. Their conclusion: AI substitution in occupations like phone operations and insurance claims administration have reduced monthly payroll gains by around -25K and raised the...
Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations
The 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread rose 14 basis points through March 31, reaching a 21‑bp gain by April 3, while the DKW model’s five‑year inflation expectation increased 10 basis points over the same window. A simple conversion suggests that a 10‑bp rise...
Hiring Slows as Service Orders Surge to Three‑year High
There are signs that businesses are increasingly reluctant to hire right now, even amid robust consumer spending. The employment component of today's ISM Services data came in at the weakest since 2023, even as new orders picked up to the...
US Labor Data Shows Economy Still Robust
Labour market indicators suggest the US economy is still going strong. This and more in the today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/DZsTza1fHV
Trump’s FY27 Budget Slashes Climate and Disaster Funding, Shifting Costs to Cities and States
President Donald Trump’s FY27 budget proposes a 10% cut—about $73 billion—in non‑defense spending, targeting climate, disaster and environmental programs. The plan eliminates key FEMA preparedness grants, slashes more than $1 billion from EPA categorical grants, and trims NOAA’s budget by $1.6 billion. Funding...
Wells Fargo Predicts Fed Rates Staying High Until 2026
Higher for longer: Wells Fargo expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% through 2026 @seekingalpha https://t.co/cSdOS8R4z6
Airline Fares Signal Upcoming CPI Inflation Rise
Not an encouraging sign... this is a solid indicator of future airline prices and CPI inflation. via "Airlines for America" website https://t.co/zXUKyVcVvd
US Treasury Yield Curve Upward Sloping As Iran Conflict Continues (Strait Of Hormuz Effectively Closed)
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has returned to a classic upward slope, with long‑term rates climbing faster than a year ago. The shift coincides with heightened geopolitical risk as the Strait of Hormuz—key for global oil shipments—has effectively shut down...
ISM Manufacturing Employment Signals Lower 2026 Recession Risk
The Polymarket recession odds for 2026 are 36%. I believe that is an overestimation. Consider the employment component of ISM Manufacturing. It bottomed nine reports ago, at 43.4, and is on the mend. This index often breaks below 40 for...
US Deficits Projected Near 7% of GDP by 2026
PIMCO: .. US budget deficits likely “grow to ~7% of GDP for 2026. Even if the amount of the supplemental request were halved to $100bn, deficits could grow to ~6.6% ..” https://t.co/fVC6QpbqzB
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Raising Cost of Capital for AI Stocks in 2026
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged on March 18, signaling at most one cut this year and another in 2027. Analysts warn that higher financing costs could curb AI‑related capex and compress valuations for high‑growth AI stocks such...
St. Louis Fed Spread Hit 3.11% on June 1 2023
Always remember that the spreads are quoted differently depending on who you're quoting mortgage rates with. The St. Louis Fed spread's recent high was June 1, 2023, at 3.11% https://t.co/sraBmi3n5u
Weekly US Inflation Updates Vs. Fed Forecasts Begin
Tomorrow, with mtks back to full liquidity, we will start a run of US inflation updates for the week. We start with the NY Fed's Consumer Inflation Expectations reading, then Thursday we have the Fed's preferred PCE deflator and Friday...
March Jobs Surge, Unemployment Drops to 4.2%
BofA Mar jobs: Spring in full bloom...Across the board strength...Jobs surged, but in part due to weather and strike payback All eyes were on the u-rate decline to 4.2%...Slower but still stable income growth...feast for the hawks https://t.co/Z4apZhQNN2
Rising Gas Prices Could Undermine Tax Refund Gains
We asked Kevin Hassett whether rising gas prices threaten the economic benefits of higher refunds and tax benefits…
US Services Slow, Prices Surge, Jobs Slip
The ISM's US service sector activity report for March was worse than expected. Headline reading dropped to 54.0 from 56.1 - still expanding, above 50.0. Price gauge surges to 70.7 - highest since Oct 2022. Jobs gauge drops to 45.2 - lowest...
Unemployment Hits Historic Low Since 1971‑1998
The current unemployment rate is lower than where it was every single month from 1971 to 1998. https://t.co/VAAexazBPH
Today's Stubborn Inflation Driven by New Factors, Not 1970s
This chart is fine as a simple comparison of historical inflation experiences, but the current tenaciousness of inflation is due to different factors, and is happening in a different policy context, from the inflation of the late 1970s. 1/2
Jobs Flip Between Growth and Contraction 11 Months Straight
It really is incredible that jobs have alternated between growth and contraction for a record 11 months in a row. The previous record? 6 back in the last 1960s. https://t.co/ktPBF1R0Ku
Summers Wasn't Alone: Multiple Economists Warned of Inflation
It’s strange how Summers is often implicitly covered as if he were the only economist who warned about inflation in 2021 The dominant forecast was it would be transitory (there’s still debate as to whether it ended up being a really...