Treasuries Steady as Traders Assess War’s Inflation Risks
U.S. Treasury yields held near 4.30% as the latest producer‑price index came in below expectations, reinforcing bets for at least one Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026 despite lingering inflation concerns tied to the Iran‑Israel war. The PPI rose 0.5% versus a 1.1% median forecast, while core PPI increased 0.1% versus 0.4% expected. Oil market volatility from the Strait of Hormuz disruption lifted gasoline prices and pushed March consumer inflation to its highest monthly gain since 2022. Traders remain cautious, with Treasury futures volumes down roughly 50% of the 20‑day average, awaiting clearer geopolitical outcomes.
US Inflation Peaks as Hormuz Shock
JUST IN: US PPI inflation rises to 4%, its highest since February 2023. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz supply shock is estimated to cause oil demand to contract by 80,000 barrels per day — the largest drop since COVID. Are you...
PPI Wholesale Inflation Highest in 3 Years
The March Producer Price Index rose 4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since February 2023, while the month‑over‑month gain slowed to 0.5%. Core PPI climbed 3.8% YoY, marking the strongest reading in the past twelve months. Small‑business optimism slipped to 95.8, the...
Money Supply Rising, Yet Far Below Past Inflation Peaks
It is tempting to become hyper-focused on oil, but don't take your eye off of money supply when assessing inflation dynamics. Though money supply growth is accelerating across the major economies, it remains materially lower than it was in previous...
March Card Spending Rises 4.3% Amid Strong Discretionary Demand
💳BofA: "Mar total BAC card spending per HH was up 4.3% y/y. We forecast a solid 1.8% & 0.6% for ex-auto & control group retail sales. Despite higher gas prices, Mar spending was broad-based with total ex gas spending remaining...
Single-Family Permits Decline Sharply to Start 2026
Residential construction entered 2026 with a stark split between housing segments. Single‑family permits dropped 15.2% year‑over‑year to 62,034 units, reflecting higher borrowing costs and tightening affordability. Multifamily permits held steady, slipping only 0.5% to 38,215 units, showing resilience amid regional...
Pro‑Growth Tax Agenda Boosts Business Investment and Wage Growth, but Reversal Risks Loom
Recent federal tax reforms that make small‑business deductions permanent and expand R&D expensing are already prompting higher cash flow and hiring plans among U.S. firms. Analysts say the stability these measures provide could reinforce long‑term investment, but they caution that...
How Do Fertility Rates Affect US Fiscal Sustainability?
The United States’ fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.57 births per woman in 2025, well below the 2.1 replacement threshold. Historical spikes during the Baby Boom created a surge in the old‑age dependency ratio, pushing entitlement...
Wholesale Prices Rose 0.5% in March, Much Less than Expected Despite War Impact
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% in March, well below the 1.1% consensus estimate. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, increased only 0.1% month‑over‑month. On an annual basis, the all‑items PPI jumped 4%, the fastest 12‑month...
Analysts Warn AI‑Fueled Bull Market Could Fade as 'Citrini Scenario' Gains Traction
A coalition of analysts led by Citrini Research warns that the AI‑driven rally in U.S. equities may be nearing its end. Their "Citrini Scenario" predicts rapid AI adoption could trigger massive white‑collar job losses, a plunge in consumer spending and...
Trump Orders Hormuz Blockade, Crude Surges Above $100 a Barrel
President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, halting Iranian oil shipments and driving Brent crude above $102 and WTI past $103 per barrel. The move ignited a sharp rally in energy markets, dragged...
IMF Lowers 2026 Global GDP Growth Forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% Prior
The IMF trimmed its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices. The United States sees a modest downgrade to 2.3%, while the euro area falls to 1.1% and China...
US Wholesale Inflation Much Cooler Than Feared
U.S. wholesale inflation slowed dramatically in March, with the Producer Price Index rising just 0.5% month‑over‑month, half of the 1.1% analysts expected. The modest increase was largely offset by a sharp 1.6% jump in a specific core component, while most...
US Stock Market Health Drives Global Economy and Consumer Spending
This is part of why this administration cares so much about equity markets. The moment the market enters a real sustained drawdown, 401ks, retirement programs are impacted and Americans begin holding on to every dollar they have. That behavior alone...
Wholesale Prices Increased by 0.5% in the U.S. in March
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% in March, well below the 1.1% consensus estimate. On a 12‑month basis the final‑demand index climbed 4.0%, the strongest annual gain since February 2023. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy,...
US PPI Inflation Slows to 0.5%, Easing Fed Pressure
This will come as a relief to many, including the Federal Reserve: Monthly US PPI inflation was 0.5% in March, less than half the consensus forecast. America's diversified economy and its energy security are again distinguishing its economic performance from much of...
Higher EPS Won’t Offset Rising Rates and Inflation
@ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @tomkeene @business Regarding your bullish guest (Lisa)who says the EPS outlook has improved so stocks are inexpensive: * The small business confidence is lowest since April 2025. * Global bond yields have risen. The Fed is no longer likely to...
What Small Employers Are Telling Us About the Labor Market
ADP’s March payroll data shows turnover among firms with fewer than 50 employees dropped to 3.9%, the lowest level in nine years. The broader private‑sector turnover rate has hovered around 4.7% for the past three years, indicating relative stability. Small...
Trump Administration Proposes 2027 Budget with Pell Grant Increase and Sweeping Education Cuts + History, Curiosity, and a Classroom That...
The Trump administration released its FY 2027 budget, allocating roughly $76.5 billion to the Department of Education—a $2.3 billion reduction from the prior year. While the proposal raises Pell Grant funding, it simultaneously trims student aid, institutional support, and federal research dollars, and...
Commercial Banks Boost Lending Amid Shadow Banking Strains
"While there are cracks in the 'shadow' banking system, commercial banks are actually increasing their lending. There's no sign of a credit crunch in the Fed's weekly bank loan data." -Yardeni
U.S. Small Business Sales Hold Steady in March as Consumers Spend More Per Visit
U.S. small‑business sales were essentially flat in March, posting a negligible 0.1% month‑over‑month increase and no year‑over‑year growth, according to the National Retail Federation. At the same time, the average transaction value rose about 3% to roughly $58 per visit,...
Connecticut GDP Outperformed National Economy In 2025
Connecticut’s economy posted a 2.4% GDP increase in 2025, outpacing the nation’s 2.1% growth and tying Massachusetts for the top spot in New England. The state recorded net positive job creation for the fifth consecutive year, highlighted by an additional...
U.S. Economy Remains Resilient Amid Growing Global Risks
JPM's Dimon: "The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy. Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Fed's...
Zillow and Redfin Forecast Mortgage Rates and Housing Market Amid Oil‑Price Surge
Zillow and Redfin released coordinated forecasts that mortgage rates are likely to hold near 6.4% as oil prices spike, while the housing market shows renewed momentum with record pending listings and higher buyer traffic. The outlook highlights a tug‑of‑war between...
IRS Refunds Jump 14% YoY, Boosting Consumer Cash Flow Ahead of Holidays
The IRS reports a 14% year‑over‑year increase in tax refunds, with the average refund up 11.1% and total payouts up 13.6% from 2025. The surge stems from retroactive tax cuts in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, putting more disposable income...
The Challenges Facing the New Head of the Federal Reserve
Kevin Warsh is set to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair pending Senate confirmation, inheriting a mixed economic backdrop. Initial jobless claims sit at a historic low of 202,000 and unemployment is 4.3%, yet total employment fell 0.4% year‑over‑year...
Bessent Tells Fed to ‘Wait and See’ on Cuts as War-Driven Inflation Clouds Bitcoin
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest‑rate cuts, citing the Iran‑related surge in oil prices that is stoking inflation. The Fed’s March minutes echoed this concern, pushing market expectations for the first cut out...
Most of Wall Street Points to High Oil Prices as the Driver of Inflation. A Maverick Johns Hopkins Economist Says...
Wall Street analysts quickly blamed the March 3.3% year‑over‑year CPI rise on soaring oil prices after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz. Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke pushed back, arguing that the inflation surge mirrors a two‑year‑old expansion in the...
Bernanke’s Broken Promise: Is It Time To Shrink the Fed Yet?
In 2011 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified that quantitative easing (QE) was a temporary measure that would be reversed. Fifteen years later the Fed’s balance sheet has swelled to about $6.6 trillion—more than seven times its 2007 size—driven by $1.6 trillion...
How Will AI Affect the US Labor Market?
Goldman Sachs researchers project that AI adoption across U.S. firms will span roughly a decade, potentially displacing 6‑7% of the workforce. If the transition is evenly paced, unemployment could rise by about 0.6 percentage points, with larger spikes if adoption...
Bessent: US Should ‘Wait and See’ Before Lowering Interest Rates
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Semafor that the Federal Reserve should hold off on cutting interest rates until the fallout from the Iran war becomes clearer. He noted that despite a recent surge in headline inflation driven by oil...
Economist Mark Zandi Flags Fragile U.S. Economy Amid 1% Spending Growth and Geopolitical Risks
Economist Mark Zandi warned Sunday that the U.S. economy is becoming increasingly fragile, citing barely 1% annualized consumer spending growth and heightened geopolitical risks. He cautioned that stalled job growth, low savings rates and looming war‑related headwinds could push the...
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.8% Core Inflation
Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz The DSGE model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per...
Quick Model Shows CPI + PPI Outpacing PCE
Morning Commentary with a few #PPI takeaways & CPI+PPI = > PCE model (note this is a "quick" model with few adjustments for data weirdness that has admittedly been more common of late). https://t.co/JZ69JZIaEW
Fed Demands Detailed Private‑Credit Data From Top Banks, Targeting $1.8 T Market
The Federal Reserve has asked America’s largest banks to submit detailed information on their private‑credit holdings, a move aimed at gauging stress in the $1.8 trillion private‑credit market. The request follows a wave of redemptions from private‑credit funds and rising defaults,...
March PPI Jumps to 4%, Biggest Rise Since Feb 2023
JUST IN: March PPI inflation rises to 4%, the largest yearly gain since February 2023
PPI Beats Expectations, Yet Pipeline Inflation Still Climbing
Commentators rejoicing in better than expected PPI. However, looking more closely, pipeline inflation is rising. @thestreetpro @business @lisaabramowicz1 @tomkeene @ferrotv
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for April 10, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields softened across most maturities for the week ending April 10, 2026, with the benchmark 10‑year rate slipping 0.04 percentage points to 4.31%. The 3‑year note posted a yield of 3.80%, while the 30‑year Treasury held steady at...
Housing Market Slowdown Began Before War-Driven Rate Hikes
House sales were slowing even before the war sent mortgage rates higher and gas prices soaring https://t.co/rfpqU6llQd
Treasury Yields Drop Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict
JUST IN: U.S. Treasury yields are sliding lower with Middle East conflict still front and center.
Fed Study Shows Tariffs Boosted Goods Inflation by a Cumulative 3.1 Percent
The Federal Reserve’s latest research quantifies the inflationary impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs, finding a cumulative 3.1 percent rise in core goods personal consumption expenditures (PCE) through February 2026. The analysis shows that tariff costs are fully passed through to consumer...
Home Sales Plummet as Supply Peaks, Condos Hit Record Low
Single-Family Home Sales Drop Further into Deepfreeze, Supply Hits 10-Year High, Condo Sales Plunge to Record Low March was a lousy beginning of spring selling season. But mortgage rates ticked up only modestly. https://t.co/B5wK4sU0lw https://t.co/jYisYhV9je
Bessent Predicts Rebound Growth After Weak Quarter
When asked whether he still sees US economy growing at 4% this year, @SecScottBessent feels @semaforben: “Obviously we’ll have some make-up to do from this quarter”
The Closer – Fedspeak, Housing Affordability, Positioning – 4/13/26
The Federal Reserve’s recent commentary has turned noticeably more hawkish, a shift that historically dampens forward equity returns. At the same time, mortgage rates have rebounded to roughly 6.5%, squeezing housing affordability. Existing‑home sales have slumped to their lowest level...
Alcohol Drinks Count in CPI Core, Not PCE Core
Today I learned that alcholic beverages are part of "commodities less food and energy commodities" in the CPI but not in "PCE goods excluding food and energy"
U.S. Spring Home Selling Season Is Off to a Rough Start
The episode covers three main stories: the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global oil markets, a disappointing start to the U.S. spring home‑selling season with existing‑home sales falling 3.6% in March, and Goldman Sachs...
USD/CAD Stalls Near 1.3840 as Oil Spikes and Fed Hawkishness Offset Each Other
USD/CAD traded around 1.3840 on Monday, caught between a near‑7% jump in WTI crude that supports the Canadian dollar and persistent expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve that buoy the U.S. dollar. The tug‑of‑war left the pair essentially flat...
Economy Likely Faces Just Temporary Setback From Iran War: Survey
A Wolters Kluwer survey of corporate economists finds 59% expect the inflation surge from the Iran war to be short‑lived, projecting 2.2% U.S. GDP growth this year. Yet the conflict has nudged recession odds to 35% for the next 12 months...
Labor Stagnation Leaves Little Room for Error
March payrolls added 178,000 jobs, but the three‑month average growth slipped to just 68,000, barely above breakeven estimates. The unemployment rate fell to 4.26% as labor‑force participation dropped 396,000, indicating that the decline reflects a shrinking pool rather than stronger...
Everyday Prices Jump
AIER’s proprietary Everyday Price Index (EPI) surged 2.5% in March 2026, reaching 307.4 – the second‑largest monthly gain since January 2020. Fourteen of the 24 component categories rose, led by motor fuel, housing fuels, utilities and food away from home,...