Trump Wants Regime Change at the Fed
In this episode, Paul Krugman warns that former President Donald Trump is attempting to undermine the Federal Reserve’s independence by pressuring for lower interest rates and targeting Fed officials. Krugman explains why monetary policy is a technical, credibility‑driven tool that requires expert technocrats, not impulsive political whims, and notes that inflation is currently above the Fed’s 2% target, making rate cuts unwarranted. He details Trump’s tactics, including using the Justice Department to intimidate board members like Lisa Cook and Jerome Powell, and argues that such interference would erode the Fed’s credibility and destabilize the economy. Ultimately, Krugman cautions that Trump’s continued influence poses a broader threat to democratic norms and sound economic governance.
Trump Threatens to Fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell Again, Heightening Political Clash
Former President Donald Trump announced on April 15 that he will fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the Senate does not confirm a successor by May 15. The threat comes amid a DOJ probe of a $2.5 billion Fed renovation...
March 2026 Rental Report: Renting Beats Buying in All 50 Major U.S. Metros — and the Savings Gap May Be...
The March 2026 Rental Report shows a 32‑month streak of year‑over‑year rent declines across the 50 largest U.S. metros, with the national median asking rent falling to $1,669, 1.5% lower than a year ago but still 17.5% above pre‑pandemic levels. Renting...
Our Latest Views on the Major Central Banks
ING’s latest outlook assesses the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ as they navigate a fresh oil price shock and lingering inflation pressures. The Fed sees inflation testing 4% but expects sub‑2% by 2027 if energy costs fall, opening space for...
Powell's Exit Odds Slip, Warsh's Confirmation Odds Hit Record Low
The odds of Fed Chair Jay Powell leaving the Fed's board by May 30 have fallen to 31%, according to Polymarket. The chances of Kevin Warsh getting confirmed to be the next Fed chair by May 15 have fallen to...
Record Buffett Indicator Flags Historic U.S. Market Overvaluation
The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit its highest level in history, signalling the most overvalued U.S. stock market on record. This is why Buffett is holding nearly $400 billion in cash much of it in Treasuries and now owns...
Bipartisan Tax‑Cut Push Gains Traction in Congress, Raising Stakes for Wealth Managers
A coalition of Republican and Democratic lawmakers is intensifying a bipartisan effort to lower federal and local taxes, targeting bracket creep, property taxes, and IRS modernization. The push, described as a response to post‑pandemic inflation and rising living costs, could...
Consumer Sentiment Plummets Even as Retail Sales Surge
Consumer sentiment just hit a record low while retail sales are running the hottest they've been in over two years. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/gH4ALHEYBO
INFLATION BREAKEVENS HAVE NOT COLLAPSED!
The author argues that 12‑month inflation breakevens have not collapsed, despite social media chatter linking a recent equity rally to a dramatic drop in inflation expectations. Recent Treasury data shows the 1‑year breakeven rate hovering around 3.0%, essentially unchanged from...
Foreign Share of US Treasury Demand Likely Overstated
The Largest Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities and the “Basis Trade”: April 2026 Update. Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?” https://t.co/qUbusfuVOx https://t.co/HYoQrWI8cP
Indiana Leads State Push for Three‑Month Medicaid Work Rule, Affecting 33% of Enrollees
Indiana Gov. Mike Braun signed a law on March 4 mandating a three‑month work‑history for Medicaid applicants, covering about a third of the state’s recipients. The move follows new federal guidelines that require at least one month of work, with states...
Zillow and Redfin Forecast Stable Mortgage Rates Near 6.4% as Housing Activity Gains Momentum
Zillow and Redfin released forecasts that mortgage rates will stay near 6.4% and that housing‑market activity is accelerating. Zillow reported a 32% jump in daily page views per listing and a 4.6% year‑over‑year rise in newly pending homes, while Redfin...
Goldman Sachs Flags Inflation and Geopolitical Risks in Q1 2026 Outlook
Goldman Sachs warned that persistent inflation and escalating geopolitical tensions could dampen deal flow and strain its Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities (FICC) segment in Q1 2026. The bank also noted a 31% rise in its Equities revenue but a...
Iran War Pushes U.S. Energy Prices Higher, Threatens Growth
The Iran war has driven U.S. gasoline to $4.10 a gallon and added upward pressure on inflation, while economists warn it could shave a few tenths of a percentage point off GDP. Higher borrowing costs and mixed consumer‑spending data underscore...
Treasury Yields Rise 2‑4 Bps as Oil Prices Stabilize Amid Iran Conflict
U.S. Treasury yields jumped 2‑4 basis points on Wednesday, reversing a two‑week decline after oil prices steadied following the U.S. war on Iran. The move reflects heightened caution among investors as energy‑driven inflation pressures linger.
Pain At The Pump Not So Bad For Americans
U.S. gasoline prices have risen over 40% since the war began, pushing the national average above $4 per gallon. When measured against average hourly earnings, a gallon now costs about 7.7 minutes of work, down from 10.7 minutes in June...
Trump Threatens to Fire Fed Chairman
The episode examines President Donald Trump's threat to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unless he steps down within a month, highlighting the political pressure on monetary policy and the potential fallout of such interference. Economist Claudia Ray‑Sarm explains why...
Higher GDP Buffers Developed Economies From Oil Shocks
It is not really a controversial statement When more GDP is produced or Energy Unit - the price of the energy unit becomes a little less relevant on a running basis The US economy (and other developed economies) can better...
America's Top Bankers Confirm: The Economy Remains Resilient 💪
America's leading bankers say the U.S. economy remains resilient despite a dip in household finances. While surveys show savings rates falling and debt ratios rising, overall financial health is still sufficient to sustain consumer spending. Personal consumption, which accounts for...
THE 40% WEALTH CONFISCATION: Positioning for Debasement, M2 Money Supply Explosion Coming as Fed Inevitably Returns to Money Printing, Drives...
The article warns that the Federal Reserve will likely resume aggressive money‑printing to buy Treasury securities as soaring debt‑service costs strain the U.S. fiscal balance. By expanding the M2 money supply well above its 6.8% historical average, the Fed will...
Fed Beige Book Highlights
The Fed’s Beige Book released on April 15 shows a patchwork of regional activity: New York and Boston districts slipped into slight contraction, while Cleveland, Richmond and Atlanta posted modest growth and other districts were flat or only slightly positive. Across the...
M&T Bank Posts $620 M Q1 Profit, Boosting Confidence in U.S. Banking Sector
M&T Bank Corp. announced first‑quarter earnings of $620 million, up from $547 million a year earlier, with earnings per share climbing to $4.13. Revenue rose 3.6% to $1.75 billion, underscoring resilience in the U.S. banking sector amid mixed macro signals. Smaller regional banks,...
OMB's Vought: CDFIs Funded 'Woke' Programs
Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought urged cuts to the Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) Fund, accusing the program of financing “woke” and DEI‑focused projects. He argued that CDFI loans lack traditional ability‑to‑pay underwriting, raising safety‑and‑soundness concerns. The...
Yield Curve ‘Un‑Inversion’ Signals Recession Risk Not Seen Since 1970
Early April saw the 10‑year/2‑year Treasury spread widen to 0.52 percentage points, ending a multi‑year inversion. Analysts note that such “un‑inversions” have preceded every U.S. recession since 1970, prompting renewed caution across markets.
2-Year Treasury Signals No Rate Cuts, Hikes Expected
The 2-year doesn't lie. It tracks Fed expectations closer than anything else in the market. And right now it's sitting above the Fed funds rate for the first time in a while. That's not pricing in rate cuts. That's pricing in rate...
Beige Book Confirms Uncertainty, Fuel Costs Surged On Iran War As Economy Grew At "Slight To Modest" Pace
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows U.S. economic activity expanding at a slight‑to‑modest pace, but the Iran‑Israel conflict has driven fuel prices above $4 per gallon and heightened uncertainty. Eight of the twelve districts reported modest growth, while Boston and...
2026 Tax Refunds Rise, But Far Below Forecasts
NEW from me: The White House (and many economists) expected $700 to $1,000 higher refunds, on average. The reality is closer to $375. Bottom line: Yes, refunds are higher in 2026 (and likely to be the highest ever). But it's less...
Inflation: A Molehill, Not a Mountain
U.S. consumer prices jumped 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, driven largely by a sharp rise in oil and gas costs. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food, increased only 2.6% YoY and 0.2% month‑over‑month, below market expectations. Other gauges such...
Tax Freedom Day Underestimates How Long You Work For The Government
Tax Freedom Day, the date when Americans have earned enough to cover federal taxes, landed on April 16, 2025 according to the Tax Foundation’s last calculation. Economists argue that this metric understates the true fiscal burden because it ignores government spending that...
Iran War Is a Major Source of Uncertainty for U.S. Businesses, Fed’s ‘Bei...
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book flags the Iran war as a primary source of uncertainty for U.S. firms, prompting a wait‑and‑see approach to hiring and capital spending. Input costs, especially energy, have risen sharply, squeezing margins across manufacturing and...
US CENTCOM Says Blockade of Iranian Ports Halts 90% of Sea Trade
U.S. Central Command announced that its naval blockade of Iran’s ports is fully operational, halting virtually all sea‑borne trade within 36 hours. The move, backed by more than 10,000 troops and dozens of warships, threatens a key conduit for world...
I Bond Rates Jump to 4.26% as Inflation Spikes, Sparking New Wave of Investor Demand
The Treasury’s latest inflation data pushed the variable component of Series I savings bonds to an estimated 4.26% annualized, reviving investor interest that had waned after 2022’s rate peak. Savers are turning to the inflation‑indexed bonds as stock markets wobble...
Rising Auto Repair Costs Signal Consumer Risk Amid Credit Strain
Wolf Street: "The CPI for motor vehicle maintenance and repairs jumped by 1.25% in March from February and by 6.1% year-over-year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since January 2020, those prices exploded by 50%." As I've travelled over...
Interview with Ellen McGrattan: Business Cycles and Intangible Capital
Interview with Ellen McGrattan, a leading macroeconomist at the Richmond Fed, highlights her adoption of the Kydland‑Prescott model‑data matching approach to study business cycles and total factor productivity. She explains how intangibles—customer lists, trademarks, recipes—are omitted from balance sheets, creating a...
US Homebuilder Depression Enters Second Year
The NAHB builder‑mood index fell to 34, a seven‑month low and the 24th straight month below the optimism threshold. The slump follows the Federal Reserve’s aggressive inflation‑fighting measures and is compounded by the Iran war, rising energy costs, and weak...
Imports/Exports Favorable for March, BofA Beats in Q1
U.S. import prices for March rose 0.8% month‑over‑month, far below the 2.4% forecast, while core imports eased to just 0.2% after excluding fuel. Export prices increased 1.6% MoM and are up 5.6% year‑over‑year, the strongest pace since November 2022. Bank...
Trump Threatens Another Major Firing
President Donald Trump intensified his campaign against Federal Reserve leadership, warning he will fire Chair Jerome Powell if a new chair is not confirmed soon. He has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Powell's successor, but Senate Banking Committee...
Americans Feel Miserable. Why Do They Keep Spending?
New research titled “Down But Not Out: Growth Strategies For The Pessimism Economy” reveals why U.S. consumers keep spending despite historically low confidence. Four forces—media amplification of bad news, personal‑finance proximity, polarized spending concentrated among the affluent, and a turn...
Builder Sentiment Posts Notable Decline on Economic Uncertainty
Builder confidence for new single‑family homes slipped to 34 in April, the lowest reading since September 2025, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The decline reflects persistent high mortgage rates, rising material costs tied to higher fuel prices, and...
Fed Updates: 24‑Hour News Recap Podcast
What will they do? Today's podcast covers all the news about the Fed from the last 24 hours. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy #economics
Overtime Barely Rose, yet Remains Employer‑imposed
Overtime is up 0.1 hours over the last year https://t.co/PwOOy52yar More importantly, overtime is rarely voluntary for workers. The employer tells a worker they need to work late. But Bessent wouldn't know anything about that.
Fed's Post‑War Policy: Cuts or Hikes?
Is the Fed gearing up for rate cuts or rate hikes after the war? https://t.co/rrlbTJ5MBC via @YouTube
White House‑Fed Tension Persists Beyond New Chair Appointment
Interviewer: Do you think the tension between the White House and the Fed goes away when Warsh becomes Chair. Me: No. It continues (form may change some) until the President backs off and lets the Fed do its job. And...
Luxury Brand Slumps Signal Stagflation Ahead
This may have flown under the radar: Keep an eye on luxury brands starting to report weaker results. They’re often a leading indicator of what’s coming for the broader consumer. The current environment is deeply stagflationary. https://t.co/53453IX0Fd https://t.co/qvZM0cAjOO
Consumer Pessimism Stems From Perceived Price Pressures, Not Fundamentals
Excellent article attempting to explain why consumer sentiment is so bad (worst ever) while objective prices, wages, employement and economy are all fairly stable: "It's the prices, stupid" https://t.co/bqHARTz5JM
US Deficit Cuts Essential for Global Current‑account Balance
"Reducing the US fiscal deficit materially and sustainably is the most important US policy prerequisite for global current account rebalancing" This is ignored by many trade deficit hawks bc 1) it contradicts their narrative of the US as innocent victim; 2)...
Democrats Propose Raising Child EITC to $5,500
JUST IN: Democrats' new measure hikes the Earned Income Tax Credit to $5,500 per child.
15% of U.S. Taxes Unpaid, Creating $700
JUST IN: 15% of U.S. taxes go unpaid every year creating a ~$700 billion tax gap
Inflation Won’t Reach 2% Target, Be More Volatile
literally said that four years ago. Inflation would come down sharply, but not all the way to 2% - which was now the floor rather than the ceiling. And it would also become more volatile, due to various supply shocks
Inflation Still Above Fed’s 2% Target, No Decline
Are inflation and core inflation coming down? Unfortunately, I don't think we can say so anymore. Not on the measures that define the Fed's 2% inflation target: https://t.co/2NzZtQ2Qjr