Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Hearing as Trump Nominates Potential Fed Chair
President Donald Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell. Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee, where lawmakers will weigh his likely preference for lower interest rates against an inflationary backdrop shaped by recent fiscal and trade policies.
Manufacturing Rebound Driven by Imports, Not Tariffs
There's a stealth manufacturing recovery underway, evident in output, not jobs. Don't credit tariffs; the strongest growth is in sectors with little tariff protection, and strong imports: AI-related computers, electronics, etc; and aerospace. https://t.co/jqdZIRreAO
Markets Await Warsh Hearing, Data, Hormuz Wild Card
This week brings Warsh's confirmation hearing, retail sales, flash PMIs, and consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains the wild card for markets. 🟢 Open https://t.co/mLRfGzP6hG
Why Your Paycheck Feels Smaller
Chief economics correspondent Ben Casselman explains that U.S. wages are lagging behind inflation, causing real paychecks to shrink. He cites data showing wage growth of roughly 1.5% while consumer prices have risen over 4% year‑over‑year. The gap is most pronounced...
Tariffs Fully Passed to Consumers, Labor Gains Negligible
Another Fed paper finds Americans paid almost all Trump's 2025 tariffs ("pass-through of realized tariffs into import prices was close to one hundred percent"), AND that local labor market effects were "economically negligible." All pain, no gain. https://t.co/FIgzz7XDAC https://t.co/SeRAnQAdLP
Stock and Housing Gains Fuel Consumer Spending Despite Crises
Why are consumers still spending money despite higher prices, tariffs, energy price spikes, war, etc? You cannot overstate how much wealth has been created in the stock and housing markets in the 2020s Taking stock of consumer balance sheets: https://t.co/2z6xHf95hK https://t.co/6idg1ItOV2
Fed Governor Waller Warns Middle East War Could Push Inflation Higher and Stall Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told a university audience that the ongoing Middle East war, which has spiked global energy prices, could embed higher inflation and make a near‑term rate cut unlikely. He linked the geopolitical shock to the Fed’s...
Trump Expects His Fed Chair Nominee to Cut Interest Rates. Here’s How Kevin Warsh Might Try to Do It.
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell, signaling a push for lower interest rates. Warsh plans to offset a $1 trillion balance‑sheet reduction—an action he equates to a 50‑basis‑point rate hike—by cutting the federal‑funds rate,...
BoA Survey Shows Goods Economy Strength at Four-Year High
BoA’s shipper survey shows increasing strength in the goods economy, with the highest reading in 4 years. This provides affirmation that the recent capacity tightness is not just less trucks, but a more complete recovery, including demand.
How to Slay the U.S. Tax-Code Dinosaur
The article proposes replacing the United States' intricate tax code with three flat taxes: a 2 % levy on all assets, a 10 % national sales tax, and a 20 % income tax on earnings above $50,000. Using federal data, the author calculates...
Larry Kudlow Hosts April 16 Roundtable on Market Rally Amid Hormuz Blockade Concerns
Larry Kudlow anchored a Fox Business roundtable on Thursday, April 16, focusing on a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, its ripple effects on global oil supplies, and a concurrent rally in U.S. equity markets. The 41‑minute episode featured...
Legacy Banks Return to $2 Trillion Private‑Credit Market, Raising Systemic Risk
U.S. regulators have asked the nation’s biggest banks to disclose their exposure to the $2 trillion private‑credit market, and several legacy institutions are now planning credit‑default swaps that would let investors bet on that market. The move revives practices that helped...
Fed Beige Book Flags Rising Costs, Customer Pullback and Squeezed Distributor Margins
The Federal Reserve’s April Beige Book, released on April 16, shows wholesale distributors facing a 5% year‑to‑date sales decline as input costs outpace selling prices. The report links tighter margins to a Middle‑East energy shock, lingering tariffs and waning consumer...
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Says U.S. Economy May Need a Different Policy Path
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told reporters that the U.S. economy’s mixed signals could demand a policy stance different from the consensus among Fed officials. Her remarks highlight growing debate within the central bank about the appropriate path...
Yardeni: Investors Prioritize Fundamentals Over Iran Conflict
Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni told Bloomberg that investors are treating the Iran conflict as a background issue and are instead zeroing in on core market fundamentals. He argued the U.S. economy has proven resilient through multiple stress tests, suggesting...
Housing Shortage Number Raises Eyebrows; Fed Nominee Hearing Set
The White House’s 2026 Economic Report claims the United States faces a housing shortfall of at least 10 million single‑family homes, a figure that dwarfs estimates from Realtor.com, Freddie Mac and most economists. Economists generally place the deficit between 3 million and 4 million...
Fed Governor Warns Energy Shock Delays Rate Cuts
'One Transitory Shock After Another' Fed governor Chris Waller lays out two scenarios: The strait reopens "leaving me cautious about rate cuts now and more inclined toward cuts to support the labor market later this year." Or it doesn't and the Fed...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Much Ado About Oil
In this J.P. Morgan Weekender episode, Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dissect the implications of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader U.S.-Iran agreement on oil markets. They outline a baseline scenario where a modest, sustained...
AGC's Data DIGest: April 6-10, 2026
Input prices for new non‑residential construction rose 1.7% in March and 4.4% year‑over‑year, driven by a 37.8% monthly jump in diesel‑fuel PPI and sharp metal price gains. Diesel fuel surged 51.2% y/y, while aluminum, copper and steel saw year‑over‑year increases...
Congress Targets 75% Cut to Estate Tax Exemption, Shaking Wealth Management
U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen introduced legislation to slash the federal estate and gift tax exemptions by more than 75%, reverting them to 2009 levels. The proposal would lower the individual estate exemption to $3.5 million and the lifetime gift exemption...
Indeed CEO Says This—Not AI—Is the Biggest Threat to the Workforce
Indeed CEO Hisayuki “Deko” Idekoba told Semafor’s World Economy Summit that an aging labor force poses a far greater risk to the U.S. job market than artificial intelligence. Indeed’s research projects a loss of roughly 20 million workers—about 5% of the...
Fed Governor Waller Says Iran War and Labor Market Risks Are Keeping Central Bank on Hold
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told a speech in Alabama that persistent inflation risks and a fragile labor market could force the Fed to keep the policy rate in its current 3.5%‑3.75% target range. He highlighted the Iran war and...
Auto Prices – Adjusting for Quality and Mix
The average transaction price of a new car jumped from $1,900 in 1960 to over $50,000 in October 2025. When adjusted for quality improvements and a shift toward larger, feature‑rich models, the price increase is about 125%, far lower than the...
Fed's Waller: Job Market Break Even Rate Now Likely Around Zero
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the job‑market break‑even rate – the unemployment level that would allow the Fed to keep policy unchanged – is now effectively zero. He warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push inflation higher...
1.5% M/M Ann’d: What Headline CPI Inflation Have to Be to Restore Pre-War Trend by Dec. 2026
The analysis estimates that a 1.5% month‑over‑month annualized CPI increase from May through December 2026 would bring the headline consumer price index back to its pre‑war stochastic trend. This target assumes oil prices remain elevated until the Strait of Hormuz...
Liquidity Drain Underway, Will It Even Matter?
Liquidity is draining as the Treasury General Account climbs and Federal Reserve reserve balances slip toward $2.8‑$2.9 trillion. Historically, the second half of April sees equity weakness, yet the S&P 500 has risen about 2.5% since April 14, 2026, defying the pattern. Overnight...
Rate‑cut Odds Surge to 50% After Recent Events
Just a couple weeks the probability of another FOMC rate cut this year was down to less than 10% With some positive macro and geopolitical events over the past two weeks including the last 48 hours... the probability of another FOMC...
Fed's Daly: Businesses Cautiously Optimistic
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Daly says businesses remain cautiously optimistic despite a looming labor‑force slowdown. She predicts zero net job growth could become the new steady state, with productivity gains from AI and technology offsetting demographic headwinds. Daly warns that...
Why the Fed Could Shrink Its Balance Sheet Again (and Markets Might Not Notice)
Late last year the Federal Reserve concluded its most recent quantitative‑tightening cycle, cutting the balance sheet by more than $2 trillion from a peak of nearly $9 trillion, about 35 % of U.S. GDP. The market barely reacted, suggesting the unwind was largely...
Low R* Tied to Declining Labor Share, Growth Raises Both
Blog post from New York Fed president John Williams (and co-author Sophia Cho): "Future periods of very low R* are likely to be accompanied by low levels of the labor share, while increases in the trend growth rate of the...
War on Iran Pushes US Gas Prices Above $4 per Gallon
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, prices at the pump have JUMPED by $1.15. The national US average just hit $4.13/gallon. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = CREATING AMERICAN PAIN AT THE PUMP. https://t.co/2D7sRK3hnJ
The Daily Feather — Building a Better Parachute
The Daily Feather explores how James Floyd Smith’s 1914 near‑fatal flight sparked the modern parachute industry. After his plane’s wing failed, Smith designed a “parachute‑type” safety device that later became the first reliable sky‑diving rig. The post traces the invention’s...
US March Industrial Production Slumps, Tariff Boost Still Elusive
"US Industrial Production Fell in March in Broad Decline" https://t.co/aq4xd1Vgvn Still waiting for that tariff boom.... https://t.co/LS9R23Crm0
1970s Fed Hikes Sparked Credit Crunch, Causing Stagflation
What a surprise (/s)… the Fed hiking rates in 1970s caused supply contraction and price increases… One funeral at a time…
San Francisco Fed Flags Oil Price Volatility as Drag on US Growth
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco released a FedViews report warning that recent spikes and volatility in oil markets, driven by the Middle East conflict, could dampen U.S. economic growth and revive inflation pressures. The report notes a jump...
US Debt Limits Expose Global Economic Fragility
On @cgtnamerica, I explain the fragility facing the global economy: "Large economies like the US have been running large deficits and accumulating debt. There's very little headroom. They've put themselves in a corner. And the markets aren’t pricing in the real...
Strong Labor Data Signals Higher Rates for Longer
Jobless claims fell to 207,000. Philly Fed hit a 15-month high. The real economy is not the economy the bears have been describing. Strong data with a hawkish Fed means rates stay higher for longer. That's the actual risk now....
U.S. Industrial Production Falls 0.5% in March, Signaling Manufacturing Slowdown
U.S. industrial production slipped 0.5% in March, contrary to forecasts for modest growth, as the Federal Reserve reported a reversal from February’s 0.7% gain. The decline spans factories, mines and utilities, highlighting a fresh contraction in the sector that fuels...
March US Inflation Stems From Money Supply, Not Oil
March's US CPI inflation (3.3%/yr) wasn't the result of higher oil prices. It occurred because the money supply was accelerating prior to the Iranian war. The 3-month annualized inflation rate in Feb. was exactly equal to March's 3.3%/yr. https://t.co/YBHCbqfLiV
Inflation Already Embedded, Set to Accelerate Post‑War
My view in @FortuneMagazine on how inflation was ALREADY BAKED INTO THE CAKE: “Inflation was accelerating before the war, and it will keep accelerating after the war’s over and oil prices fall.” https://t.co/40tVOVEUt1
‘The Macro Says Cuts Not Hikes’
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned that a combination of record‑low consumer sentiment and a sharp rise in energy costs is eroding pricing power for firms and could force the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts rather than further hikes....
Traders Boost Futures on Rising 2026 Fed Cut Odds
JUST IN: U.S. short-term interest rate futures climbed as traders bet on higher odds of a Fed rate cut in 2026.
Fed Swaps Signal Dovish Pivot, Pricing 15bps Cuts by December
JUST IN: Fed swaps indicate a dovish pivot, pricing 15 bps in rate cuts by December.
Is the Labor Market About to Tip Us Into Recession?
In this episode of Prop G Markets, hosts Ed and Scott discuss the looming risk that a weakening labor market could push the U.S. economy into recession, drawing on insights from labor economist Catherine Anne Edwards. They explore key indicators...
Record Earnings and Baby Boomers Sustain Spending Despite Negative Savings
Record earnings and resilient consumers keep the economy humming. Even a negative saving rate won't derail spending thanks to Baby Boomers, while rent inflation finally cools. 🟢 Open https://t.co/XJbCE5qL7q
IMF’s U‑turn on US Growth Fuels Market Exuberance
Most frequently asked question from policy makers is why markets are so exuberant. It's this: one year ago, after "Liberation Day," the IMF downgraded US growth sharply (blue), but had to reverse itself fully 6 months later (red). It'll be...
Fed Officials Barkin and Waller Speak Today
Economic Calendar for Fri. April 17 12:15pm - Fed’s Barkin speaks 2:00 - Fed’s Waller speaks
Card Spending Growth Remains Resilient Amid War, Easter Dip
BofA: Ex-gas total card spending growth has been very resilient since the start of the war, barring a recent slowdown around Easter https://t.co/LKgjpddqKj
Tax Refunds Surge 15% YoY, Up $36 Bn
BofA: As of Apr 15, tax refunds were running about $36bn (15.4%) above last year’s level https://t.co/mPjzrL4Dmr
Yields Spike Three Months After New Fed Chair Takes Office
BofA Hartnett: Market usually tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts https://t.co/zn2zh9y9nl