Middle East Stasis Set to Keep Fed on Hold at Chair Powell’s Swan Song
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, but he has signaled he may remain chair pro tempore amid political friction with the White House. The April FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady, with Fed funds futures pricing no change and only modest cuts – about 10 basis points – by year‑end. Persistent Middle‑East tensions are keeping core inflation above 4%, limiting the Fed’s ability to move aggressively, while the central bank’s balance sheet has expanded by roughly $185 bn in securities and T‑bill purchases have been trimmed to $25 bn a month. Analysts still forecast two 25‑bp cuts this year, likely in September and December, as the Fed balances inflation containment with a stalled labor market.
Gold Slides to Weekly Loss as Middle‑East Tensions Keep Oil Prices High
Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $4,685.70 an ounce on Friday, leaving the metal down roughly 3% for the week. The decline follows a surge in oil to $107 a barrel as U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained...
Inflation Expectations Set to Drive Market Direction
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – April 24, 2026 🚨 Consumer sentiment day is here — inflation expectations will be the key market watch 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 1000 - UMich Consumer Sentiment (Apr): Exp 48.5; Prior 47.6 1000 - UMich 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr):...
Productivity Boom Raises Neutral Rate, Undermining Rate Cuts
Kevin Warsh wants lower rates soon. His reasoning is fundamentally flawed. The productivity boom raises the neutral rate, not lowers it, leaving no room for aggressive cuts. 🟢 Open https://t.co/V7JMWWBgcg
DTE Energy Seeks $474 Million Electric Rate Hike, Michigan's Biggest Since 2019
Detroit‑based DTE Energy announced a $474.3 million request to raise electric rates before the Michigan Public Service Commission, its biggest hike in six years. The utility says data‑center contracts will fund grid upgrades and forestall further hikes until at least 2028.
Blue‑Collar Chip Rally Signals US IS
Harnett BofA: upside breakout blue collar semis (ON, STM, MCHP, TXN...) implies surge in US ISM to >60 https://t.co/HFxKZOdFGN
Yields Rise as Market Tests New Fed Chair
The market often tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts. BofA Hartnett https://t.co/uJHPiLrNsf
One Year Inflation Expectations: A Survey of the Latest
The article aggregates the latest one‑year‑ahead inflation expectations from the University of Michigan, the New York Fed, the Cleveland Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters and its firm‑level SoFIE, all showing a steady climb toward the mid‑3 percent range by mid‑2026. The...
BofA Says April Dot Plot Would Appear More Hawkish
BofA: The dot plot would look more hawkish if it were published at the April meeting https://t.co/nN8P0rQug7
BofA Predicts March PCE
BofA: We expect headline PCE inflation to jump to 3.4% y/y in March on the back of the spike in gas prices. The saving rate would probably fall significantly, to 3.1% https://t.co/dorT1DTMid
Jim Cramer Backs Warren’s Plan to Tax Billionaires for Social Security Boost
Jim Cramer posted a video supporting Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s bill to eliminate the Social Security wage‑base limit, a move that could raise $200 a month for every retiree. The endorsement spotlights a growing clash between wealth‑tax reform advocates and traditionalists...
2026 Labor Market Set to Remain Stable Amid AI Limits
[@opinion] Stabilization in the labor market data and a massively compute-constrained AI industry means 2026 is shaping up as a pretty decent year for the labor market — for now at least: https://t.co/Js1J4rf3o1
Central Banks Sing the President’s Tune, Not Independent
If the job interview is "Will you do my bidding?" the answer isn't central bank independence. It's central bank karaoke: the chair just sings the president's tune. https://t.co/YFiILGZPvR
Peterson Institute: Middle East War Trims Global Growth, Raises US Inflation
The Peterson Institute for International Economics released its Spring 2026 Global Economic Prospects, warning that the ongoing Iran war will cut global GDP growth to 3.0% in 2026 and lift U.S. inflation to 3.2% in the fourth quarter. The report...
Quantitative Easing Enriches the Wealthy, Harms the Poor
"QE is reverse Robin Hood. It’s policy that steals from the poor, to give to the rich." — Kevin Warsh https://t.co/wcGKkX6SgP
US Tariff Revenue Plummets to $23B, Fiscal Risks Loom
🇺🇸 Another problem looming in the US is the decline in tariff revenues, to just $23bn in April. Maximum uncertainty following SCOTUS ruling, new sections, and refunds, but ultimately the drop in tariff revenues may become an issue again from...
Eurex Report Shows Q1 Bond Volatility Fueled by Inflation Fears and Middle East Conflict
Eurex’s Q1 2026 analysis finds bond markets worldwide saw a sudden surge in volatility after energy‑price shocks from the Middle East reignited inflation expectations. The shift forced investors to price in higher yields across both government and corporate bonds, even...
U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.3% as Iran Tensions Spur Oil Prices
The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.33% on Thursday, driven by renewed U.S.–Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a jump in oil prices. Short‑term yields also rose, while investors brace for upcoming PMI data and Fed policy...
B+ Growth Masks Recession-Scale Deficit Mismatch
A B+ economy with a recession-sized deficit is like showing up to a Sunday barbecue in full scuba gear. Technically you’re dressed, but something doesn't add up. https://t.co/3BmlhUlHQr
Redfin Says U.S. Home Prices Grow Only 0.1% in March, YoY Gain Slows to 1.7%
Redfin’s March Home Pricing Index reports a modest 0.1% month‑over‑month rise and a 1.7% year‑over‑year increase—the weakest annual growth since 2012. The slowdown is linked to higher mortgage rates after the Iran conflict, leaving buyers on the sidelines and creating...
Texas, Florida, Utah and Others Stockpile Gold Bars as Inflation Hedge
Texas, Florida, Utah and Wyoming have enacted laws to purchase and store gold bars, aiming to protect state savings from persistent inflation and soaring federal spending. The moves come as gold prices sit above $4,700 an ounce and the national...
Trump’s Numbers, April 2026 Update
Under President Donald Trump’s second term, job creation slowed to 369,000 jobs by March and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%. Inflation ticked higher, pushing gasoline prices up after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, while private‑sector weekly earnings rose 1%...
U.S. Jobless Claims Edge Up to 214,000, Hinting at Labor Market Cooldown
The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims climbed to 214,000 for the week ending April 18, a rise of 6,000 from the prior week. The increase modestly exceeded analysts’ expectations and may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate...
Kroger Rolls Out $30 Online Deal Days Discount as Food Prices Jump 2.7% YoY
Kroger launched its "Online Deal Days" promotion, giving shoppers $30 off their first pickup or delivery order of $75 or more and free delivery over $50. The move comes as food prices rose 2.7% year‑over‑year in March and consumer sentiment...
Oil Would Need $350 to Trigger 1970s‑style Inflation
My Leading Inflation Index has jumped to 3.95% after the recent surge in oil prices. But even this is not even remotely close to resembling the 1970s. In order to get a 1970s style rate of inflation (10%+) you'd need...
Americans Cut Spending Due to Higher Gas Prices and See No Relief in Sight, CNBC Survey Finds
A CNBC All‑America Economic Survey of 1,000 adults shows roughly 80% have altered their spending because gas prices have jumped over 30% to more than $4 per gallon since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. More than half expect the...
ECB's Nagel Says Trump's Fed Attacks Caused Flight to Safety
ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve are prompting a flight to safety. Bundesbank research shows the rhetoric has lowered Treasury yields, depressed equity prices, boosted gold and weakened the dollar....
Mortgage Rates Slide for Third Consecutive Week
U.S. mortgage rates slipped for the third week, with the 30‑year fixed rate averaging 6.23% and the 15‑year at 5.58% for the week ending April 23. The decline follows a modest rise in mortgage applications, driven by a surge in...
Declining Survey Response and Government Data
Survey participation in key federal household and business questionnaires has plummeted, with the Current Population Survey dropping from nearly 90 % a decade ago to about 60 % today. Similar declines affect business surveys such as the Current Employment Statistics and CPI‑C&S,...
U.S. Inflation Picture Is the Worst in Almost 4 Years
U.S. inflation has surged to its most severe level since 2022, according to a MarketWatch report. S&P Global’s service‑sector index rose to 51.3 in April, up from a three‑year low of 49.8, indicating modest expansion despite broader price pressures. Companies...
Nowcast IQ Nails US PMI, Flags Europe Slowdown
The best Nowcast data on Earth? Solid PMIs from the US were just released, showing that economic momentum is gaining pace despite the war, and this was spot on with our live growth data from Nowcast IQ. The same applies to...
Jobless Claims Move Up Slightly, Pre-Markets Move Down
U.S. pre‑market futures slipped Thursday, with the Dow down 0.55% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each off about 0.3%. Initial jobless claims edged higher to 214,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.821 million, still near post‑pandemic lows. Q1 earnings season saw...
Trump's Policies Turn Inflation From Crisis to Choice
Covid inflation was a global phenomenon. It went away when the covid supply shocks went away. Today, inflation is a policy choice. And all of Trump's policies so far have been--to one degree or another--inflationary War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs:...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Economic Growth Decreased in March
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.20 in March, reversing a modest +0.03 reading in February. The three‑month moving average (CFNAI‑MA3) also slipped into negative territory at –0.03, underscoring below‑trend growth. Three of the four component categories—production...
Oil Prices Climb Above $103 as US‑Iran Tensions Keep Strait of Hormuz Closed
Brent crude rose 1.7% to $103.60 a barrel and U.S. WTI jumped 1.8% to $94.60 as the strategic Strait of Hormuz stayed closed amid stalled U.S.–Iran talks. The rally, reinforced by a drop in U.S. fuel inventories, raises concerns for...
From Net Oil Importer to Net Oil Exporter : Shifts in the Role of Petroleum in the US Economy
The United States transitioned from a long‑standing net oil importer to a net exporter around 2020, as refined petroleum exports outpaced imports. Data from the Federal Reserve’s FRED series show the net export share of GDP turning positive after decades...
Are Treasuries Losing Their Luster?
The article argues that warnings from the IMF and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson about rising U.S. debt do not signal an imminent loss of Treasury market credibility. It notes that the 10‑year yield at roughly 4.25% sits within the...
Warsh: Tariffs Cause Temporary Price Spikes, Not Inflation
Senator: "Some Fed officials have said this excess [3%] inflation is due to tariffs. Do you agree?" Warsh: "No, I don't. ... the data is imperfect ... trimmed averages take out the tail risk ... [I will] survey a billion prices" The...
April PMI Expected Rise; Jobless Claims Slightly Up
Economic Calendar for Thurs. April 23 8:30am - Chicago Fed national activity index for March: Expected -0.13; Prior -0.11 - Initial jobless claims: Expected 210k; Prior 207k 9:45 - S&P composite PMI for April: Expected 50.6; Prior 50.3 - S&P manufacturing PMI for April: Expected 52.5; Prior 52.3 - S&P...
Spirit Airlines Nears $500 Million Federal Bailout as Trump Administration Negotiates Aid
Spirit Airlines is negotiating a $500 million federal loan backed by warrants that could give the government up to a 90% equity stake. The talks, spurred by a fuel price shock that has doubled jet‑fuel costs, pit the airline’s survival against...
Warsh Pushes Balance Sheet Shrinkage via QE Resolution Fund
As I wrote with Matt Sekerke in @WSJ, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is CORRECT. He wants to SHRINK the Fed’s balance sheet. So do we. The only way to do it cleanly and rapidly is through the establishment of a...
AI Cuts Service Costs Unseen, Inflating Official Rates
AI is already making services far cheaper, but probably not in ways captured in the inflation deflator. So inflation is going to look higher than it really is, which could mean the Fed overtightens.
Americans' Economic Confidence Drops in April
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index slipped to –38 in April, the lowest reading since November 2023. Nearly half of U.S. adults (47%) now label current conditions as poor, up from 40% in March, while 73% say the economy is getting worse. Confidence...
US Manufacturing Surge Fuels Trucking Market Tightness
The PMI for US manufacturing blew out the forecast at 54, the highest levels since May 2022, further confirmation that US manufacturing is ramping. It all supports our view that volumes are helping to drive tightness in the trucking market,...
Fed's Balance Sheet Fix: Impact Is Modest
The impact of completely correcting the UST duration holdings of the Fed 101🧵 Despite the warnings and hyperventilation of the usual suspects, correcting the Fed's balance sheet is just not that big a deal. Today the balance sheet has a...
Decoding the Warsh Testimony: What the Next Fed Chair Actually Said
Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee testimony signals a sweeping Fed regime change. He blames the 2020 “FAIT” framework shift for today’s 25‑30% price surge and proposes a new inflation target, trimmed‑mean data, and the end of forward guidance. Warsh also...
Median Voter Demands Lower Inflation Than Fed Tolerates
I have come to believe the median voter has a different loss function than the Fed. The median voter wants inflation at 2% or lower and would tolerate higher unemployment as a tradeoff. The Fed’s revealed preference is at...
Warsh's Push to Cut Fed Liquidity Tests Rate Limits
Curious, if Warsh wants to trade in fiscal dominance for fiscal discipline - removing to start the $300B/yr Fed liquidity program Powell approved to ease REPO volatility - how low do rates go & how does he get them down...
Yields Climb as U.S.-Iran Tension Meets PMI Watch
JUST IN: Treasury yields rise amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, with investors eyeing April PMI data.
Warsh's Metric Could've Foreseen Pre‑2022 Inflation Rise
If you read closely, Warsh’s new measure would have predicted inflation approaching before 2022. And yes it is correct to consider food and energy if done right. https://t.co/9Dpz8wn32N