Warsh, Rinse, Repeat
Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh told the Senate Banking Committee he would curtail the Federal Reserve’s forward‑guidance routine, eliminating quarterly Summary of Economic Projections and the dot‑plot, and limiting post‑FOMC press conferences to truly "important" news. He also attacked the Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) framework adopted under Jerome Powell, calling it a "fatal policy error" and urging a return to a stricter, core‑mandate focus on price stability. Warsh favors trimmed‑average or median inflation measures over the current PCED metric, but does not propose changing the 2% target itself.
Fed Chair Sees Rate Cuts, Markets Delay Until 2027
The new Fed Chair thinks productivity gains mean rates should fall. Markets aren't pricing in a single cut until late 2027. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/1jwtVXGFZX
Retailers Face Rising Cost Pressures as Tariff Concerns Surge
A February pulse survey of nearly 10,000 U.S. retailers reveals cost pressures are intensifying, with tariff concerns climbing to the second‑most‑cited challenge behind inflation. The survey, conducted before recent tariff reductions, shows retailers shifting focus from growth to cost‑cutting amid...
U.S. Retail Sales Jump 1.7% in March, Fueled by Gasoline Surge Amid Iran Conflict
Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, the strongest monthly gain in a year, as soaring gasoline prices linked to the Iran war lifted overall spending. The increase was amplified by larger-than‑usual tax refunds, but economists warn the boost may be...
178k JOBS? NOT SO FAST
A recent San Francisco Federal Reserve paper challenges the headline figure of 178,000 new jobs, arguing that the underlying labor market is weaker than reported. The report highlights that much of the growth stems from part‑time, low‑skill positions rather than...
US 20‑Year Treasury Auction Pushes Yield to 4.883%, Edges Higher to 4.886%
The U.S. Treasury’s 20‑year bond auction on April 22 lifted the benchmark yield to 4.883%, up from 4.817% in the prior issue. Within minutes the yield nudged higher to 4.886%, reflecting dealer activity and broader macro factors.
The Big Question the Fed-Chair Hearing Leaves Open
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Trump ally, testified before the Senate Banking Committee, insisting he would act as an independent Fed chair. The hearing highlighted intense scrutiny over his willingness to resist President Trump’s push for lower rates...
Five Year Inflation Expectations, April 22
The five‑year inflation breakeven rate rose to 2.61% as of April 22, up from the 2.4% spread reported on February 27. The NY Fed’s median five‑year‑ahead inflation forecast for March sits at 3.05%, while the University of Michigan survey reads 3.2%. Treasury‑TIPS break‑even...
Trump’s Big Bet on Immigration Isn’t Paying Off for Most Workers
The Wall Street Journal’s "What's News" episode examines President Trump’s immigration crackdown, finding little evidence that reduced immigration has boosted wages or job prospects for U.S.-born workers. Labor Department data show average hourly earnings rose 3.8% overall, but only 3.5%...
Sherman Says: The Dirty Secret in the Bond Market
DoubleLine debuted its "Sherman Says" podcast with Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman and strategist Ryan Kimmel discussing today’s macro backdrop. They highlighted persistent inflation from energy price swings, tariffs and elevated services costs, which keep the Federal Reserve’s policy path uncertain....
ADP Reports 54,750 Private‑sector Jobs Added per Week in Early April
ADP's National Employment Report (NER) Pulse released Tuesday shows U.S. private‑sector employers added an average of 54,750 jobs per week for the four weeks ending April 4, marking the fifth straight week of hiring gains. The data, seasonally adjusted and based...
April 2026 Talent Market Index: Labor Market Trends, Rising Hiring Costs, and Workforce Shifts
The April 2026 Talent Market Index reveals that March’s job gains outpaced expectations, yet underlying labor participation is slipping and hiring demand is becoming increasingly concentrated in a handful of sectors. Employers are feeling the pressure of rising talent‑acquisition costs, prompting...
S&P Earnings Growth Likely Peaks 2028‑2030 After Rate Cut
Street consensus, S&P 500 earnings growth: 2026: +21.8% 2027: +14.8% Those are big, tough-to-achieve numbers. But look at the historic record. The S&P's earnings growth rate historically peaked 40 to 76 months after the first Fed rate cut. Yes, forty to seventy-six. Powell...
Yardeni Predicts S&P Rebound, Summer Consolidation Ahead
YARDENI RESEARCH IN BLOOMBERG (April 22, 2026) Ed Yardeni became convinced that US stocks were primed for a rebound after the S&P 500 Index had tumbled more than 9% from its record high. Yardeni said the selloff had the feeling of...
State-Level Employment Situation: February 2026
February 2026 saw U.S. nonfarm payrolls contract by 133,000, reversing January's 160,000‑job gain. Job losses were widespread, with 36 states posting declines while only 14 recorded modest gains. The construction sector added to the softness, shedding a net 13,000 jobs...
Fed Governor Waller Flags Volatile Payroll Swings Ahead of FOMC Decision
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told an audience in Auburn, Alabama, that the labor market’s “head‑snapping volatility” – with payroll gains swinging from a 160,000 increase in January to a 133,000 loss in February – complicates the Fed’s outlook ahead...
Market Always Finds Fault in Fed Transparency, Past or Present
The market will go back to criticizing the Fed for lack of transparency the way it used to before the Fed ramped up its transparency. The only constant is that the market is always find something to complain about in...
Inflation, Not Growth, Is the Issue—For Now
Oil‑driven inflation fears have pushed nominal Treasury yields higher, yet the real yield on the 10‑year Treasury has climbed 43 basis points since the Iran conflict began in February. Real yield, which strips out inflation expectations, mirrors the market’s view...
Inflation Surges Across Everyday Items, War Not Sole Cause
Even before the war, we were in the camp that inflation was a bigger issue than most realized. Really neat table from @sonusvarghese that shows various common goods and services we all use, but broken down by annualized inflation over certain...
Trump Presses Fed Nominee Kevin Warsh to Cut Rates Amid Inflation Fight
President Donald Trump told CNBC he’d be disappointed if Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh doesn’t cut rates right away. Warsh, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, denied any promise to the White House and pledged to fight inflation, setting up...
Iran‑U.S. Standoff Pushes Brent to $95/Barrel, Fuel Costs Spike in US and UK
The Iran‑U.S. confrontation has driven Brent crude to roughly $95 per barrel, raising U.S. household gasoline expenses by $857 a year and lifting UK consumer‑price inflation to 3.3%. Analysts warn the surge will cascade through plastics, food and broader cost‑of‑living...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Debating Warsh
Kevin Warsh, the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, is pushing for an earlier cut to the federal funds rate. Ed and Elias argue his rationale—based on a declining labor share and an AI‑driven productivity boom—misreads the...
March Retail Surge Hides Warning Signs for Consumers
U.S. retail sales jumped 1.7% in March, the strongest month‑over‑month gain in over three years, but the surge was largely powered by a spike in gasoline purchases linked to the Iran‑related energy shock. Stripping out the fuel effect leaves a...
Trump Mulls US Financial Aid for UAE Amid Middle East Tensions
President Donald Trump told CNBC the United States is weighing financial assistance for the United Arab Emirates, an oil‑rich ally hit by Iranian retaliation. The proposal would draw on the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, which holds about $44 billion, and reflects...
Dave Ramsey’s 25% Home‑Affordability Rule Sparks Backlash Amid 6% Mortgage Rates
Financial guru Dave Ramsey urged Americans to limit mortgage payments to 25% of take‑home pay on a 15‑year fixed loan, prompting a wave of criticism. The advice clashes with a housing market where median prices sit at $534,000 and mortgage...
Dollar Hits One‑Week High as US‑Iran Ceasefire Extension Weakens Peso and Dampens Gold Demand
President Donald Trump extended the US‑Iran ceasefire indefinitely, prompting traders to abandon the dollar’s safe‑haven appeal. The greenback rose to a one‑week high, the Philippine peso slipped to ₱60.13 per dollar and Dubai gold prices fell sharply as oil‑price worries...
Why Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair Will Not Bring Home the Bank for the President
President Donald Trump is pushing former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chair, arguing that AI‑driven productivity gains justify lower interest rates. Warsh’s hawkish past and his call for cuts clash with the majority of the 11‑member...
America First Fed? Trump Nominee Kevin Warsh Signals ‘Monetary Sovereignty’ Push: Analysts
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, signaled a shift toward “monetary sovereignty,” prioritizing domestic productivity and tighter control of the Fed’s balance sheet. In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, he pledged to work with the Treasury to...
Christopher J Waller: Modernising Federal Reserve Operations in the 21st Century
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller outlined a roadmap to modernize the Fed’s operational backbone. He traced the system’s shift from a fully decentralized, paper‑centric model to today’s hybrid where payments, IT and fiscal‑agency work are already centralized. Waller proposed...
Q2 2026 Fixed Income Perspectives
The Q2 2026 Fixed Income Perspectives note a shift from early‑year optimism—driven by resilient growth and easing inflation—to a landscape dominated by geopolitical volatility, especially the Iran conflict, and rising energy prices. These forces are pushing rates higher, widening credit spreads,...
Dollar Weakness Fuels 3%+ Oil Surge and Lifts LME Nickel and Alumina
The US dollar index slipped 0.16% to 98.06, prompting WTI crude to climb 4% and Brent up 3.78% overnight. Base‑metal markets responded, with LME nickel gaining 1.39% and the front‑month alumina contract rising 2.56%, highlighting the inverse relationship between the...
Fed Hearing Signals End of Easy Money Era
Markets are bracing for a major shift. Kevin Warsh's Fed hearing signals a move toward less intervention, a smaller balance sheet, and stricter inflation control. Banks rallied, but the era of easy money may be ending. FederalReserve
Immigrant‑heavy Low‑skill Jobs Lag Wage Growth Post‑Trump
Industries in which immigrants with low educational attainment are overrepresented have seen slower wage growth than the broader private sector since Trump took office, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows. https://t.co/dSm4Lvudzj
S&P 500 Tops 7,000 as Strong Earnings and Cooling Inflation Lift US Markets
Equity markets surged as the S&P 500 closed above the 7,000 mark, buoyed by better‑than‑expected earnings from major banks and a slowdown in producer‑price inflation. The rally erased a 9% decline linked to Middle‑East tensions and revived optimism about steady...
Fertilizer Price Surge Triggers Gradual Food Inflation
Rising fertilizer prices are now hitting farmers, and eventually those will translate into higher wholesale food prices which will (assuming higher costs are passed onto consumers) eventually land at grocery stores too. The inflationary impulse doesn’t arrive all at once,...
Trimmed‑average Inflation: Only Gauge Still Trending Lower.
Yesterday, Kevin Warsh said he favors using trimmed-average inflation measures... Of course he does.... It’s probably the only “inflation” gauge still somehow trending lower. Yep.... I’ll say it again: None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/psqdXXGW7Q https://t.co/LS43LWLsQe
Thune Nudges Trump to "Wrap Up" Fed Probe
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is urging the Trump administration to end the Department of Justice investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell so that Kevin Warsh can be confirmed as the next Fed chair. The confirmation is stalled because Senator...
Warsh Calls Core PCE ‘Rough Swag,’ Favors Trimmed Mean
At his confirmation hearing, Warsh dismissed core PCE as "rough swag" and said he'd prefer to focus on better gauges of underlying inflation like median or trimmed mean. This got attention because Dallas Fed trimmed mean was 2.3% in February (y/y)—well...
Retail Sales Soar as Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low
US Retail Sales hit another all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at its lowest level in history. Watch what they do, not what they say. https://t.co/mZJ1r5oqcI
Surging Gas Prices Will Cost Americans $857 More in 2026
The Iran war has pushed global oil prices up more than 30%, driving U.S. gasoline costs up $857 per driver in 2026. Retail data show a 15.5% surge in gas‑station sales in March, the biggest jump since the Census began...
Warsh's Potential Fed Reforms Analyzed by Experts
Read this morning’s rundown from me and @samjsutton about reforms Warsh might make to the Fed: https://t.co/bBY0mNIO8y
Cash Surges in 2025, Boosting Fed Balance Sheet
𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡. The @NewYorkFed's SOMA annual report shows currency growth accelerated in 2025! This is a bit surprising given the digital age, but it bodes well for the Fed's balance sheet and operating income. (1/7) https://t.co/jvk7p0srbM
US Senators Grill New Fed Chair
The episode examines the Senate hearing of President Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, for Federal Reserve chair, focusing on concerns about his independence, wealth, and proposed reforms to Fed policy and communication. Senators probe Warsh on his relationship with Trump, his...
Housing Leading Indicators Return to Positive Growth
With the MBA data this morning, all of my three favorite housing leading indicators have flipped back to positive YoY growth after war-related declines at the end of March. Will it hold? https://t.co/nPUuWGhIrg
Iran War Inflation Drives Rates Despite Upcoming UST Auction Schedule
It has been almost two weeks since the last UST coupon auction. Today's 20y starts up a bunched up schedule in the next week that is another headwind for rates. Of course, the Iran war inflation remains the...
5-Year Yield Rises Toward Downtrend Line
Interest rates worth watching here. 5-year yield pushing up into the recent downtrend line after holding support last week https://t.co/n0HhB2UYKx
Fed’s Rate Tightening Always Ends With Credit Cracks
The Fed's core dilemma: inflation requires higher rates. Credit breaks at higher rates. Every tightening cycle ends when something cracks — not when inflation hits target. 1982: S&L stress. 2007: housing. 2023: banks. Always the same story. $TLT https://t.co/Ogvr0NZVik
Retail Control Group Surges 7.6% Annualized, Excluding Gas Stations
Diving into yesterday's retail sales, the control group is up a very impressive 7.6% annualized the past 3 months. Yes, gas station sales are up a lot, but remember, they aren't included in the control group. https://t.co/PLg5UQX8Ah
Consumer Confidence Plummets Even as Economy Remains Strong
Well, @sonusvarghese might still be in X jail, but that doesn't mean he can't write. Here he dives into why consumer confidence is historically low, even though the economy is pretty good. https://t.co/T6HvtKfWLo
Former FOMC Insider Says Warsh Lacked Independence at Hearing
This is quite a comment from someone who served on the FOMC for nearly four years with Kevin Warsh. He says Warsh failed to project independence at his hearing.