Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
FRED’s latest maps reveal nonfarm employment changes for Q4 2025. North Carolina led states with a 22,700‑job gain, while Virginia and Washington, DC each shed over 17,000 jobs. At the metro level, the New York‑Newark‑Jersey City area added 31,200 jobs, whereas the Washington‑Arlington‑Alexandria MSA lost 33,500. State totals show a 50,700‑job net increase, contrasting with the national report of a 51,000‑job decline, reflecting sampling differences and pending revisions.
Elon Musk and the AI Solution to U.S. Debt: A Critical Analysis Link to the complete analysis - https://youtu.be/zxkw2w4-WpQ?si=iZFhj_AoZ_c3m3te
This is probably where the focus of a lot of efforts needs to go, as much as it might seem small-bore / Clintonian Appetite for tax increases very low. Appetite for spending changes (up or down) also not high. Improving govt...
The article argues that while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faces accusations of political manipulation, there is no evidence of data tampering and the agency relied on its documented imputation methodology during the 2025 shutdown. It highlights the importance...
I just hope if we really do end up back at ZIRP that we don’t debate the Fed buying gold or ETF’s, that was bad discourse.
Waller on Monday pushes back on the idea that the ongoing productivity boom is currently being driven by AI. "A.I. at some point will clearly kick in down the road, but I don't think it's going to be in the...
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bonson examines the current U.S. economic landscape, focusing on the paradox of disinflation that may arrive in 2026 but could be economically painful. He breaks down recent data—including a weaker-than-expected GDP...
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
If the unemployment rate hits 6% with stocks down 25-30% (roughly the thresholds when we got TARP/CARES Act), we’ll get a big fiscal policy response. But it won’t be actual TARP or CARES, it depends on what the crisis looks...
New Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveal that 306,800 workers participated in 30 major work stoppages in 2025, a 13% rise from the previous year. Public‑sector strikes dominated, accounting for 17 of the incidents, while private‑sector actions included a 46‑day...
This is why I think the @Citrini7 scenario is plausible: We demonstrated that we have the power to minimize employment disruptions associated with big supply shocks and shifts in demand... ...but everyone decided they hated it.
Helpful thought-experiment, but undersells: 1) competition & demand elasticity for cheaper code, 2) how fast monetary & fiscal pol move at 10% U3, & 3) wealth effects/reinvestment bolstering productivity & offsetting wage loss. Tail risk yes. Base case no. https://t.co/BDbOcr4sHF
The U.S. Census Bureau announced an updated release calendar to address a recent lapse in federal funding, postponing the next Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) revisions and benchmark releases. The delay affects historical corrections, new seasonal factors, and data from the...
Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize. He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate...
We need real economists (@ModeledBehavior, @arpitrage, @tylercowen, Krugman etc) to take a crack at the fast AI scenarios from an NGDP, RGDP, productivity growth, inflation, 30,000-foot macro standpoint. What are the tech/VC/hedge fund people missing?
HUD Secretary Scott Turner announced a proposed rule that would require proof of U.S. citizenship or eligible immigration status for every resident in HUD‑funded housing, targeting so‑called “mixed‑status households.” The rule follows a HUD‑DHS audit that identified roughly 200,000 units...
Early invite to my network, as I am going live in an hour to debunk what Elon Musk says: The U.S. is 1000% heading for bankruptcy without AI. I ran the model. Then I ran it again with correct accounting. The doom loop...
Everyone's worried about foreign countries dumping U.S. bonds, but here's what mainstream economists won't tell you about government finances. The link to the complete presentation is in the comments.
The post examines how the 10‑year US‑German bond yield spread correlates with the USD/EUR exchange rate, showing that higher US yields usually coincide with dollar appreciation. A notable exception occurred after April 2 2025, when a sharp US yield rise was followed...
The $10 trillion U.S. debt wall has become a political weapon. But the accounting tells a different story than what you'll read in mainstream economics textbooks.
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
The U.S. Census Bureau has postponed the Advance Economic Indicators Report, originally slated for January 28, 2026, to February 19, 2026 due to a recent lapse in federal funding. The report, which provides forward‑looking data on international trade, retail inventories,...
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
The U.S. Census Bureau announced USA Trade Online: Reimagined, a modernized, login‑free platform that retains core trade data while offering a streamlined interface. A processing error in Exhibit 15 was corrected and the updated FT900 PDF and XLSX were posted on...
I've been teaching this for decades, and now the data proves it: 90% of government money creation between 2000 and 2024 was cancelled out by secondary bond sales. The system we have actively destroys the money governments create. EconomicReform
Realtor.com’s January 2026 Rental Report shows the 29th consecutive month of year‑over‑year rent declines for 0‑2‑bedroom units, with the median asking rent falling 1.5% to $1,672. Vacancy rates in the nation’s 50 largest metros rose to 7.6%, the highest since...
The Conference Board‑Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose to 100.4 in January 2026, a modest 0.4 % gain from December’s revised 100.0 reading. The increase follows a 5.6 % decline between November and December and leaves the index 15.4 % lower than a...
A new report from the Committee for Economic Development warns that the United States’ national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, matching the size of the economy and rising rapidly. The report urges Congress to create a bipartisan fiscal commission to devise...
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index rose to 105.06 in January 2026, up from 104.51 in December, indicating a modest acceleration in payroll growth. Unemployment insurance claims continued to fall and the share of involuntary part‑time workers slipped to 17.6%,...
The United States faces a growing elder‑care burden as the population ages. About 29% of adults 65 and older report difficulty with daily activities, rising to 60% for those 85+, while roughly one‑quarter of those in need receive no care....
The latest BLS employment report revealed that payroll growth stalled in 2024, with the March 2025 benchmark revision removing 898,000 jobs and total downward adjustments surpassing one million by year‑end. Despite the sizable cuts, the revised employment series closely mirrors...
