Global Liquidity And ‘Treasury QE’: Why the Incoming Warsh Fed Is No Longer in Full Control
The Federal Reserve’s traditional role as the chief driver of U.S. growth is waning as the Treasury reclaims liquidity management. Starting in 2025, a covert revision of the 1951 Fed‑Treasury Accord allows the Treasury to conduct its own quantitative easing by favoring short‑term bill issuance and volatility‑targeted buybacks. This “Treasury QE” shifts the focus of the Fed toward financial‑stability tools rather than direct stimulus. As Kevin Warsh prepares to assume the chair, the policy landscape will reflect a Treasury‑led growth engine and a Fed centered on risk oversight.
KREF Posts $62 Million Q1 Loss as CECL Provisions Surge
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF) posted a GAAP net loss of $62 million, or $0.96 per share, for Q1 2026, after a $74 million boost to its CECL allowance. The company also slashed its quarterly dividend to $0.10 per share and...
UBS Forecasts Over 40,000 U.S. Store Closures in Next Five Years
UBS analysts project that more than 40,000 U.S. retail stores will close by 2029, driven by accelerating e‑commerce, AI‑enabled shopping, and tariff pressures. The forecast follows a recent drop of 5,000 stores between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025 and signals a shift...
All Quiet on the Long-Bond Front. How Long Can This Last?
The U.S. 30‑year Treasury yield has been unusually steady since March 29, trading in an 8.2‑basis‑point band between 4.858% and 4.940%, even as oil prices swung more than 30% and equities experienced sharp moves. Analysts attribute the calm to market uncertainty...
Gas Prices Drive Consumer Sentiment Index to All-Time Low
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 49.8 in April, marking the lowest reading in its 73‑year history. The drop of 3.5 points was driven by a sharp rise in gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict....
US Consumer Confidence and Electric Vehicles
The episode examines the plunge in US consumer confidence to a record low, driven primarily by soaring gasoline prices amid the Iran‑related conflict and its ripple effects on inflation and everyday budgets. Experts Joanne Hsu and financial adviser Jacob Chen...
Global Rates: Central Banks Likely to Wait-and-See Against a Backdrop of Ongoing Middle-East Uncertainty
The episode examines upcoming policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and BoE against the backdrop of the Middle‑East conflict and rising energy prices. Analysts attribute the US rate rise to solid consumption data and a dovish‑leaning Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh,...
FedWatch Shows 84% Chance of 2026 Rate Cut
FedWatch now pricing 84% odds of a rate cut in 2026. I am old enough to remember when the market was pricing in 0% in March, and I won't be surprised when this goes back to zero. Time will tell.
InvestingLive Americas FX News Wrap 24 Apr:Risk-On Mood Lifts Stocks to Records/USD Lower
U.S. equities surged on a risk‑on wave sparked by renewed diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, pushing the Nasdaq up 1.63% and the S&P 500 up 0.80% to fresh all‑time highs. Mega‑cap tech stocks such as Nvidia, Alphabet...
Arkansas Farmers Turn to Irrigation as Drought Threatens Planting and Prices
Arkansas farmers are increasingly irrigating fields as a prolonged drought forces them to slow or pause planting. The University of Arkansas reports that 19‑27 inches of rain are needed in three months to end the dry spell, while forecasters expect...
Fed Expected to Hold Rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Iran War and Trade Shocks Keep Policy on Sidelines
The Federal Reserve is poised to leave its policy rate unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% at the April 29 meeting, citing persistent inflation, soaring oil prices from the Iran conflict and lingering trade‑war pressures. A Justice Department decision to drop...
‘Labor Crisis’ Warnings Rekindled By Tech Job Cuts
The U.S. big‑cap employment picture recorded its first annual decline in a decade, driven largely by tech giants Meta and Microsoft announcing up to 25,000 job cuts, roughly 7‑10% of their workforces. While overall payroll growth slowed last year, AI‑focused...
Consumer Sentiment Sags to Record Low Following Gas Price Surge
U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a record low of 49.8 in April, driven by a 36% jump in gasoline prices after the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations for the next year rose to 4.7%, while long‑term expectations ticked up to 3.5%,...
Rates End Week Close Enough to Recent Lows
The 30‑year fixed mortgage rate index held steady at 6.32% this week, barely above Friday’s 6.29% low, marking the lowest level in more than a month. The flat movement reflects heightened uncertainty over the ongoing Iran conflict and its potential...
Global Central Banks Decisions Highlight Next Week's Calendar: Market Volatility Ahead
Global central banks will dominate the week, starting with the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Monday and culminating in a packed Thursday of Bank of England, European Central Bank and key U.S. data releases. The Federal Reserve and Bank...
Warsh’s Fed Balance Sheet Trim Risks Liquidity Crunch
In other Fed news, my latest on how Warsh plans to shrink the central bank's footprint in financial markets "It’s very clear that the balance sheet cannot be immediately reduced without causing a liquidity crunch that nobody would like," says Darrell...
Modest Retail Jobs Performance in March 2026 Keeps Multi-Site FM Activity Steady
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that retail trade added a modest 9,700 jobs in March 2026, leaving the sector essentially flat. In the same month the broader economy posted 178,000 non‑farm payroll gains, driven largely by health‑care (+76,000)...
Senate Confirmation of Warsh, Who Wants to Reduce the Fed’s Balance Sheet, Gets Unstuck as DOJ Ends Powell Investigation
The Department of Justice announced it is closing its investigation into cost overruns for Federal Reserve buildings, removing the political obstacle that stalled Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation. With Senator Thom Tillis lifting his hold, the Senate Banking Committee can now...
Social Security Announces 2.8% COLA, Yet Retirees Still Feel Inflation Pinch
Social Security revealed a 2.8% cost‑of‑living adjustment for 2026, boosting monthly checks but leaving many retirees short after Medicare Part B premium hikes and a 20% erosion of purchasing power since 2010.
How a Swap Line for Persian Gulf Allies Would Break with the Past
The Federal Reserve is considering extending dollar swap lines to Persian Gulf allies such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, a departure from its traditional use as a crisis‑management tool for G7 and select emerging markets. Treasury Secretary...
U.S. Treasury Announces $183 Billion in 2‑, 5‑ and 7‑Year Note Auctions Amid Weak Demand
The U.S. Treasury disclosed plans to auction $69 billion of two‑year, $70 billion of five‑year and $44 billion of seven‑year Treasury notes, all attracting below‑average demand. Results for the 2‑ and 5‑year issues will be released Monday, with the 7‑year results due Tuesday,...
The Deeper Forces Shaping Global Trade
Global trade is being reshaped by forces beyond tariffs, as technology and economic development drive new production and consumption patterns. While Middle‑East shipping disruptions and uncertain U.S. tariff policy capture headlines, long‑term shifts in digital infrastructure and emerging‑market demand are...
The Fed Pivot: Assessing a Potential Generational Shift at the Federal Reserve
The article examines the potential appointment of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell’s successor and the policy shifts his leadership could bring. Warsh advocates a more forward‑looking interest‑rate framework that privileges productivity gains, a faster balance‑sheet normalization through...
DoJ Drops Powell Probe, Clearing Way for Warsh to Take Fed Hotseat
The Justice Department has closed its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing a major political obstacle to confirming President Trump’s Fed nominee, former governor Kevin Warsh. The DOJ redirected its focus to a cost‑overrun review of the...
Updated April Michigan Survey Results
The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers released its April update, showing one‑year‑ahead median CPI inflation expectations slipping 10 basis points to 2.9%. At the same time, the consumer‑sentiment index rose two points, its strongest reading since early 2022. The...
Fed Could Cut Rates in June to Avoid Instability
Fed might cut rates in June, not because inflation is beaten, but to dodge a financial stability risk. Cooling jobs data + oil spikes that are "transitory" could tip the scales. Keeping an eye on the May jobs report. 🧠💰...
Trump May End Probe, Threatening Powell’s Fed Chairmanship
Rumor has it Trump will drop the probe against Powell, which could end his tenure as Fed chairman. #mortgagerates #realestate #economics #inflation #chartdaddy
Middle East Stasis Set to Keep Fed on Hold at Chair Powell’s Swan Song
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, but he has signaled he may remain chair pro tempore amid political friction with the White House. The April FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady, with Fed funds futures...
Gold Slides to Weekly Loss as Middle‑East Tensions Keep Oil Prices High
Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $4,685.70 an ounce on Friday, leaving the metal down roughly 3% for the week. The decline follows a surge in oil to $107 a barrel as U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained...
Inflation Expectations Set to Drive Market Direction
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – April 24, 2026 🚨 Consumer sentiment day is here — inflation expectations will be the key market watch 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 1000 - UMich Consumer Sentiment (Apr): Exp 48.5; Prior 47.6 1000 - UMich 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr):...
Central Banks Pivot to Demand‑driven Liquidity, Warsh Aligns
With Kevin Warsh's nomination locked in, here's my recent take on central banks' growing shift from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity frameworks. The best version of Warsh's balance sheet ambitions would follow this trend.
Young Non‑college Workers Lose Jobs as College Peers Gain
Since @ngoldschlag and I wrote our piece, the situation has only gotten worse for young non-college workers. Young college workers have actually seen an uptick in employment. Does this look like AI to you? https://t.co/MSlKuOfnK4
No Recession Yet, Just Fear and Hallmarks
There is no recession - it just seems to have a number of the hallmarks of one and there seems to be record levels of concern around one... #recession https://t.co/HBGocSyWzf
Money Supply Surge Outpaces Golden Growth, Fuels Inflation
My take on @PalisadesRadio on America’s inflation problem: "The US will have trouble getting the inflation genie back in the bottle because the money supply has been accelerating for 18 months, growing faster than Hanke's Golden Growth Rate." https://t.co/0f14uwnTFx
Fed and Central Banks Ignoring Money Supply Theory
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the Fed's DISREGARD for the Quantity Theory of Money: “The Fed doesn't look at changes in the money supply, & the Fed’s not alone. Most central banks discard the money supply." Central bankers should give Sekerke &...
US Deficit Ballooning as Fed Expands Balance Sheet
I know there is a lot going on with a lot of headlines (US-Iran, monetary policy, consumer confidence, etc); but worth remembering the ballooning US deficit and efforts to facilitate it (like the Fed balance sheet) still matter: https://t.co/4H1YDnmu7Y
Warsh's Fed Balance Sheet Cut Push Gains Senate Confirmation
Senate Confirmation of Warsh, who Wants to Reduce the Fed’s Balance Sheet, Gets Unstuck as DOJ Ends Powell Investigation. Even during the Senate hearings, Warsh stuck to his guns: the Fed should have a smaller balance sheet https://t.co/NHR0nbQLhS
Cleveland Fed Warned Trimmed Mean Understates Inflation, Critics Ignored
The skew issue was pointed out by the Cleveland Fed back in early 2022 as a reason the trimmed mean was understating inflation back then. Someone wanting the top job who is trashing current measures & methods probably should have...
Warsh Didn't Vote Against Fed at Every Crisis Meeting
I have plenty of criticisms of Kevin Warsh, but it's factually untrue that he voted against the Fed at every meeting during the financial crisis.
FOMC Slashes Rates 75 Bps to 3.5%
January 22, 2008. The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent...Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice...
AI Boosts Productivity, Strengthens US Fiscal Outlook
excellent study here, showing that AI-driven productivity growth would be a big benefit for US fiscal dynamics. supports my view that “No, there will not be an AI-induced recession”. recommend reading the entire piece particularly for detail on embedded optionality in...
10-Year Yield Rises After Powell Probe Dropped
10yr bond yield relative to CNBC's announcement at 10:17am ET that investigation into Powell has been dropped (clearing the way for Warsh) src for intra-day chart: BBG https://t.co/TpnqqO9bLw https://t.co/UOy5Qt22Dt
Independent Fed's Inflation Focus Could Thwart AI Takeover
Has anyone made the argument yet that an independent Fed, firmly focused on its inflation target, will be one of our most important bulwarks against complete AI takeover? As long as policy prioritizes stable *consumer* prices, that puts a brake resource...
Productivity Boom Raises Neutral Rate, Undermining Rate Cuts
Kevin Warsh wants lower rates soon. His reasoning is fundamentally flawed. The productivity boom raises the neutral rate, not lowers it, leaving no room for aggressive cuts. 🟢 Open https://t.co/V7JMWWBgcg
Blue‑Collar Chip Rally Signals US IS
Harnett BofA: upside breakout blue collar semis (ON, STM, MCHP, TXN...) implies surge in US ISM to >60 https://t.co/HFxKZOdFGN
Yields Rise as Market Tests New Fed Chair
The market often tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts. BofA Hartnett https://t.co/uJHPiLrNsf
BofA Says April Dot Plot Would Appear More Hawkish
BofA: The dot plot would look more hawkish if it were published at the April meeting https://t.co/nN8P0rQug7
BofA Predicts March PCE
BofA: We expect headline PCE inflation to jump to 3.4% y/y in March on the back of the spike in gas prices. The saving rate would probably fall significantly, to 3.1% https://t.co/dorT1DTMid
2026 Labor Market Set to Remain Stable Amid AI Limits
[@opinion] Stabilization in the labor market data and a massively compute-constrained AI industry means 2026 is shaping up as a pretty decent year for the labor market — for now at least: https://t.co/Js1J4rf3o1
Central Banks Sing the President’s Tune, Not Independent
If the job interview is "Will you do my bidding?" the answer isn't central bank independence. It's central bank karaoke: the chair just sings the president's tune. https://t.co/YFiILGZPvR