Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell places a deeply divided Federal Reserve at a crossroads. Warsh argues the institution needs a revamped analytical framework and a “balance‑sheet theory” rather than a singular focus on rate cuts. He suggests structural reforms to rebuild internal cohesion and external credibility. The debate now centers on how his approach will reshape monetary policy and market expectations.
Interesting chart. Job postings for software engineers have picked up since vibe coding became a thing: https://t.co/vyIZW909Nh
The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence™ jumped to 59 in Q1 2026, an 11‑point gain from Q4 2025, reflecting renewed optimism among 142 surveyed CEOs. CEOs reported improved views of overall economic conditions and their own industries, with 43% expecting short‑term...
The Conference Board reported that the Global Leading Economic Index (LEI) held steady at 0.0% in December, marking the first month of flat growth since the index’s inception. Major economies displayed mixed signals: the United States slipped 0.2%, China declined...
A very compelling chart. The recent rally in metals and mining has not yet evolved into a material inflationary impulse, in my view. Markets still seem to be dismissing that possibility — even though history suggests otherwise. https://t.co/FhHZJUOI67
Adjustable‑rate mortgages (ARMs) have surged to about 21% of U.S. mortgage originations, the highest share in three years, even as rates fall. In high‑cost states such as California, ARMs account for over 31% of loans, driven by a widening affordability...
This is an extreme spike in the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – Flatbed (STRIF.USA) from 2018–2026. A 40% rejection rate means: * Strong industrial throughput * Tight labor + equipment capacity * Improving pricing power in physical economy * Early/mid expansion phase dynamics It usually leads: *...
The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts a 2.5% rise in overall grocery prices for 2026, slightly below the 20‑year average of 2.6%. Seven of the 15 food‑at‑home categories, including beef, fish, sugar and non‑alcoholic beverages, are expected to outpace the...
U.S. mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest levels since September 2022, yet home sales remain stagnant. A roughly 50% imbalance between sellers and buyers underscores a deep‑seated market freeze. Inventory shortages and lingering affordability concerns continue to suppress demand...
Wall Street’s recent tumble was triggered by a speculative memo from Citrini Research that painted a dystopian AI future where productivity booms coexist with massive white‑collar job loss and collapsing consumer demand. The Substack‑style piece, framed as a 2028 science‑fiction...
My positioning & stance update on Gold , Dollar , US indexes & Bitcoin 🧵
The history of homeprices going back over 80 years. It's rare for nominal home prices to fall; it's super rare to have a massive nominal housing price crash. Home prices are sticky unless you have massive supply and distress sales...
A virtual “Trade Winds” event on March 11, 2026 gathered top economists and policymakers to assess the resurgence of Western industrial policy. Speakers outlined a growing toolbox—including procurement preferences, subsidies, and public‑private partnerships—driven by competitiveness, innovation, and economic‑security concerns. The measures aim...
Credit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, Credit Limits, and Collections in Q4 2025. Despite the wailing about tapped-out, struggling and cracking consumers, the credit card delinquency rate dropped to multi-year low https://t.co/gJZVHiZnW4 https://t.co/tWcbzsEi0k
New @ClevFedResearch paper finds US tariff hikes & tariff uncertainty increase consumers' inflation expectations, while uncertainty "strongly discourage[s] consumers from buying durables, especially cars and big-ticket items." https://t.co/IhbQU2Pc4M https://t.co/6C1XUPmqch
The Trump administration announced an "America First" investment drive that has secured more than $5 trillion in pledges from foreign governments for projects across defense, technology, energy and infrastructure. The deals are framed as reciprocal arrangements, linking tariff relief to partner...
Is this still a K-shaped economy? This was a hot topic of conversation at the #NABE conference this week. In 2026, I told @hdubroff that I see more of "E" shaped economy. https://t.co/rYUsXmGuCy https://t.co/JHiwnPutqZ
Americans are exhausted by prices that remain far above pre-pandemic levels. From a year earlier: Coffee +18.3%. Ground beef +17.2%. Electricity +6.3%. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/b1uvKYJPHt
Leading research institutions—Yale's Budget Lab, Brookings' Hamilton Project, and the Peterson Institute for International Economics—are convening a virtual event to dissect AI's influence on employment. The discussion will spotlight the most informative data sources, from real‑time job postings to wage...
Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 1 pct pt from GDP growth in Q4. We expect it will be *add* 2.6 pts in Q1 as effects of shutdown are reversed, will be roughly neutral...
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
A recent webinar examined the evolving economic partnership between the United States and Japan, highlighting trade, investment, and supply‑chain dynamics amid shifting global patterns. Experts discussed how post‑pandemic realignments and technological change are reshaping bilateral ties. The dialogue also addressed...
Big banks retreated from mortgages after the 2008 housing crash—now this Fed governor wants them back After a decade+ of "migration" toward nonbanks, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman says it's time to reconsider policy My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/6IY86V9OTy
Interesting research paper from the BIS and Bank of Korea on the interplay between excessive household debt and consumer spending https://t.co/inCiWR5V6F
The December Case‑Shiller report shows nominal house prices reaching fresh all‑time highs, while inflation‑adjusted (real) values sit slightly below their 2022 peak—2.2% for the national index and 2.4% for the composite 20. Despite the recent dip, real prices remain 10.3%...
🏗️The places that built the most housing during the pandemic have the fewest bidding wars, and the places that neglected to build have the most. 🏘️ See percent of homes selling above list price by county. https://t.co/giPGgmFuBr
Mortgage demand to buy houses just plummeted to its lowest level in 10 months. The MBA mortgage purchase index is now at 150. 57% crash from pandemic peak. 40% drop from 2018-2019 levels. It's the biggest homebuyer strike ever. https://t.co/FVB0HYY4bc
The United States hosted its first Critical Minerals Ministerial in February 2026, unveiling a preferential trading bloc, price‑floor mechanisms and a $12 billion strategic stockpile to curb China’s dominance. At the same time, a US‑backed consortium struck a $9 billion deal with...
People seem to have forgotten that workers are consumers. Rising real wages is pro worker too, even if some tasks get replaced.
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
The dollar index rose modestly as a two‑week low yen boosted USD/JPY and stronger US consumer confidence lifted the greenback. Dec S&P composite‑20 home‑price data also outperformed expectations, while a rally in the yuan limited gains. The euro slipped on...
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...
Not surprising to see some cheapening of very rich 5s before the auction later today. 2s5s10s up a few bps from Monday's Citrini low. Interesting to see if the move has legs post-auction https://t.co/ZQjjNm6NwT
U.S. income inequality has deepened sharply from 1974 to 2024, with the bottom four quintiles’ share of total earnings falling from 62 % to under 55 % while the top 20 % rose to 52.2 %. The top five percent’s income share surged 40 %,...
Yes, stocks in the US have been choppy so far this year. But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years. https://t.co/gX328BtAzw
"How U.S.-Centric is the Inflation Problem?" https://t.co/536nv3SjWg "whatever common elements are shared by globally traded consumer and business goods have been augmented by country-specific decisions in the United States, Germany, and Canada." https://t.co/QflnhV9CDt
Supreme Court ruled on Feb 20, 2026 that the International Economic Emergency Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. The decision directly challenges the wave of tariffs enacted by President Donald Trump during his second term,...
"In the name of both prosperity and world peace there are few steps that we could take which would contribute more than a complete move toward free trade." -- Milton Friedman https://t.co/5HsJX8FJPm
$2.55 Iowa average https://t.co/qKoxDrbRtX, but Senator Ernst promises to make up the difference compared to what you'll pay
The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.3% year‑over‑year in December, a slight dip from 1.4% in November, indicating a slowdown in price growth. Existing‑home sales fell to a 1995 low while national inventory more than doubled since...
Trump says he wants to lower taxes on the rich and raise them on middle and working class
#NABE2026 Chicago Fed Pres Austan Goolsbee third day of policy meeting. More worried about the risks to inflation, especially the persistence of core service sector inflation, which shouldn’t be affected by tariffs. This is after stripping out shelter costs....
Young adult headship rates slipped to 43.7% in 2024, reversing the post‑pandemic rise that peaked at 44.2% in 2023. While this figure still exceeds the 40.2% level recorded in 2017, it remains below the roughly 46% benchmark of the 1990s‑early...
My view in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump's tariffs: "Only 181,000 total jobs were created in the US last year, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Contrary to the Spinmeister-in-Chief, tariffs are, when it comes to jobs, a flop." https://t.co/LtaB5ShdIl
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "With the tariff gun at their heads, the Tariff Man asserts that he can force them to sign on the dotted line, even if it is under duress." https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
The stock market is a great wealth builder over the long run, as long as you can resist panicking during downturns. https://t.co/o8C03pFJqy
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "The use of tariffs as threats and leverage is nowhere to be found in Dale Carnegie’s 1936 classic How to Win Friends and Influence People.” https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Randall Guynn, a prominent Wall Street lawyer, will become the next director of supervision and regulation at the Federal Reserve, effective March 8 w/@AidenReiter https://t.co/WIPFQbILxz
One of the OBBBA's signature provisions aims to let some hourly employees keep more of the pay earned during their most grueling workweeks. Although the White House has characterized this provision as "no tax on overtime," experts say it's "not...
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1
