March Retail Sales Jump 1.7% on Gas Price Surge, Signaling Consumer Resilience
U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March, the strongest one‑month gain in over three years, driven largely by higher gasoline purchases amid the Iran war. The increase underscores continued consumer spending even as inflation, mortgage rates, and political approval waver.
Rate Holds Loom; Guidance Drives Markets Amid Resilient Equities
Here’s the extracted text from the image: ⸻ The calm before the storm is here 🌊 → 5 central bank rate decisions → US advanced Q1 GDP → PCE deflator (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) → Eurozone inflation data → Iran headlines still in play None of the...
Bond Traders Await Powell Update, Slate of US Treasury Auctions
U.S. Treasury traders are zeroing in on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting to assess inflation pressures as Middle‑East tensions keep oil prices elevated. The consensus is that the Fed will hold rates steady on Wednesday, but market participants are increasingly...
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/GettyImages-171249610-56a27dfd3df78cf77276a8b5.jpg)
Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER): Definition and Relationship to CPI
Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) is the imputed rent a homeowner would pay to lease their own property, factoring in mortgage, taxes and other ownership costs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics captures OER through monthly homeowner surveys, and it feeds directly...
US Consumer Sentiment Drops to Record Low in April
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 49.8 in April, edging up slightly from an early‑month trough of 47.6 but still well below March’s 53.3 and Reuters’ 48.0 forecast. The decline was driven by...
Tillis Backs Warsh, Signaling Powell's Final Fed Meeting
Senator Tillis just said on TV that he will support Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, which will make next week's Fed meeting Powell’s last. #mortgagerates #bonds #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
Sen Tillis Clears Path for Trump’s Fed Pick After DOJ Drops Powell Probe
Senator Thom Tillis announced he will drop his hold on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to become Federal Reserve Chair, clearing the path for confirmation before current Chair Jerome Powell steps down on May 15. Tillis said the Justice Department’s decision to end...
Data Deluge Meets Tech Earnings, FOMC In Blockbuster Week
The week ahead packs a heavyweight macro and earnings calendar, starting with the Federal Reserve’s April FOMC meeting and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s first‑guess Q1 GDP estimate, projected at 2.2% annualized. Inflation data will follow, with core PCE expected...
Apollo Sells $9 B CRE Loan Portfolio to Athene, Shifting Strategy
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) completed a $9 billion sale of its commercial‑mortgage loan portfolio to Athene Holding Ltd. on April 24, 2026, after shareholder approval. The deal is a strategic pivot designed to shore up liquidity, reduce exposure to...
Will Kevin Warsh Trumpify the Federal Reserve?
Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and close Trump ally, is poised to join the Fed board as the new chair seeks a more aggressive stance on interest rates. Warsh has publicly echoed President Trump’s criticism of high rates...
G‑7 Central Banks Hold Rates Steady, Keeping Bond Yields on Edge
The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada are expected to leave policy rates unchanged this week, a stance that will keep short‑term bond yields flat while investors watch for inflationary pressure...
What To Expect From Powell’s Fed Chair Swan Song
Jerome Powell faces what could be his final public remarks as Federal Reserve Chair ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. The central bank is expected to keep policy rates unchanged while the March core PCE inflation figure is projected at...
Kevin Warsh’s Senate Hearing Raises Treasury Market Concerns Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, is slated for a Senate Banking Committee hearing amid worries that his views could unsettle Treasury markets. Economists expect the Fed to keep rates on hold...
Polls Show Record Discontent as Iran War Fuels U.S. Gas Prices and Economic Anxiety
Recent polls reveal a surge in American pessimism over the economy, with 47% rating conditions poor and 73% saying the outlook is worsening. The backdrop is a costly Iran war driving U.S. gasoline prices higher, while President Trump touts tax...
South Korea's KOSPI Surpasses 6,500, Powered by Tech Earnings and Fed Outlook
The KOSPI topped 6,500 for the first time, buoyed by robust earnings from Samsung Electronics and other big‑tech firms, while foreign investors poured in. Analysts say the rally reflects profit momentum outweighing geopolitical risks and a hopeful Fed stance.
Yield Curve Signals Growth Concerns Amid New Inflation Data
Treasury yields are shifting as traders digest fresh inflation data and Fed signals. The 10-year is moving on growth worries. Keep an eye on the curve for clues on what’s next. 📉💰 BondMarket
Warsh Confirmation Sets Stage for June Budget
Now that Warsh is going to be confirmed. Assuming Powell resigns Governor that day. (as he should). Warsh will vote for a cut in June. Waller, Williams, Miran or someone like him & Bowman make 5 votes for...
Treasury Secretary Bessent Unveils Growth-First Strategy to Spur US Economy
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a growth‑first, supply‑side strategy that leans on artificial intelligence, deregulation and targeted trade measures to lift productivity and support lower‑income workers. The plan seeks to balance inflation control with sustained expansion while reducing dependence on...
US Inflation's New Normal Exceeds 2% Threshold
The “new normal” for US inflation is no longer below 2 percent - EXCELLENT series of graphs from Mike Nolan at Reuters. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/awyDZqNpdy
War May Spark Persistent Inflation and Rate Hikes
GS: We Would Worry More About the War Sparking Persistent Inflation and Possible Rate Hikes If Wage Growth Accelerated, Inflation Breath Increased, and Inflation Expectations Beyond This Year Rose https://t.co/aWNwI5lWrW
Analysts Flag Possible Market Crash Under Trump Using 155‑Year Forecast Model
Using a forecasting model with data spanning 155 years, analysts warn that a stock market crash could materialize if Donald Trump returns to the White House. The projection, which follows a 14%‑25% rally in major indexes since his second term...
Goldman Predicts Two More Fed Cuts, Dismisses Hikes
GS: Our Probability-Weighted Fed Forecast Is Much More Dovish Than Market Pricing Because We Expect Two More Cuts This Year and Because We Think That Rate Hikes Are Quite Unlikely https://t.co/JZZ2VNnLfU
April Jobs
We'll have to wait until May 8 for the April jobs report, but we will get ISM Mfg this Friday morning @augurinfinity https://t.co/MZgKbyKAGc
Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged at March 2026 Meeting, Sets Stage for April Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee left the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% during its March 18‑19, 2026 meeting. The decision follows three rate cuts in 2024 and three more in 2025, and it positions the Fed for a...
Kevin Warsh Poised to Become 17th Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh is now on track to become the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve when Jay Powell's term concludes on May 15. https://t.co/mPaGC9If1n
Fed's 2% PCE Target: March Data Arrives Thursday
The Fed targets 2% PCE Price Index inflation... we'll get the March read on Thursday @augurinfinity https://t.co/WwdpsZ2jxl
Wealth Advisors Urge Late‑Career Investors to Shift Toward Bonds as Yields Hit 4.3%
Top wealth‑management experts are urging investors approaching retirement to reduce equity exposure and increase holdings of high‑quality bonds. With 10‑year Treasury yields climbing to about 4.3%, the move is framed as a hedge against sequence risk and a way to...
Fed Expands QE Despite Record Markets and Persistent Inflation
The stock market is at an all-time high. Credit spreads are near all-time lows. And inflation has been above the Fed's target level for 61 consecutive months, averaging 4% per year since 2019. So why is the Fed expanding its balance sheet (QE)? Video:...
U.S. Data Deteriorates Fastest in 2026, Fed Downplays
Hey @grok What piece of U.S. economic data has quietly deteriorated the fastest in 2026 that the Fed and Wall Street are actively downplaying? 🤔
Mortgage Rates Slip to 6.23% on 30‑year Fixed, Expanding Homebuyer Options
National mortgage rates fell for the third straight week, with the average 30‑year fixed rate sliding to 6.23% and the 15‑year fixed to 5.58%. Analysts attribute the decline to softer Treasury yields, a cooling labor market and easing inflation pressures,...
UBS Projects Fed to Trim Rates by 50 Bps by Year-End as Inflation and Labor Slacken
UBS says the Federal Reserve is on track to deliver an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts before the end of 2024. The outlook rests on March data showing slower core inflation and weakening labor demand, which UBS believes...
Fed Set to Lead Uneasy G-7 With Rates Kept on Hold This Week
Policymakers across the G‑7, including the Federal Reserve, are expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week as they monitor the inflationary fallout from the Iran‑related energy shock. The Fed’s meeting may be Jerome Powell’s last, with a Justice Department...
U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 202,000, Undermining Fed’s Soft‑Landing Outlook
Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28, 2026, fell to 202,000, well below the 212,000 consensus. The surprise dip has forced markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s soft‑landing narrative and the timing of any rate cuts.
Treasury Swaps Shield GCC, Preventing UST Yield Spike
An important point of view (on Treasury-supplied USD swaps for GCC countries) comes from our very own, @GraphCall: https://t.co/RHN9TFGR1f This exchange of currency - without selling held collateral - avoids a GCC-forced dump of UST to get liquidity while oil revenue sales...
Tech Job Loss Fears Unfounded; Employment Near Record Highs
The most basic rebuttal against this worry is that, if technology displaced jobs **in the long-run**, employment rates would be at record lows rather than the near-record *highs* they actually are. 1/2 https://t.co/7iIr6gu3Oi
Fed Set to Lead Uneasy G-7 With Rates Kept on Hold This Week
The Federal Reserve will join other G7 central banks in keeping interest rates unchanged this week, maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25‑5.50%. Policymakers cite softened inflation but warn that renewed energy price pressures from the Iran‑Israel conflict could reignite...
Powell in Spotlight Amid Central Bank, Tech, Data Frenzy
The busiest week of the year: Five major central banks meet, five mega-cap tech earnings, plus GDP and inflation data. All eyes on Powell Wednesday. 🟢 Open https://t.co/cLDEx6IMRe
70% of Americans Can't Afford Basics, Trump Vulnerable
A CBS News poll found that over 70% of Americans are STRUGGLING to afford essentials such as food, housing, and health care. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP’S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/75TfgjUhJ5
US Demographic Shifts Threaten Blue-State Populations and Future Congressional Seats
New analysis of 2020 census data and 2023 birth statistics shows a steep decline in white births and an overall drop in the white population, while immigration adds roughly 10 million people. Demographers warn that continued losses could strip traditionally Democratic...
Fed Pumps $17.7 B Liquidity Into Markets This April
MASSIVE The Fed has already injected a total of $12.645 BILLION this month, and another $5 billion is expected to flow in within the next few days. That brings total liquidity injections in April alone to $17.703 billion. https://t.co/d8xIZjDvj4
Housing Market Set to Grow Across All Sectors in 2027
There’s maybe another 3-6 months of softness as builders work down inventories but I think residential construction, resale transactions, new home sales, and home prices will all grow in 2027.
US Programmer Job Growth Nearly Halved Since ChatGPT Launched, Fed Study Finds
A Federal Reserve study finds that US programmer employment growth has nearly halved since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. The annual growth rate fell from just under 5 percent to about 2.5 percent, equating to roughly 500,000 fewer programmer jobs over three years. The...
Rate Hikes Hit Federal Debt, Not Corporate Borrowing
This is partially a symptom of fiscal dominance. Rate hikes pushed up federal interest expense rather than corporate interest expense.
US Work Hours Fell as Benefits Grew, Not Wages
US hours per person declined after 2000 in large part due to the rise in benefits available to non-employed eg health-related benefits. In non-US countries a rise in labour supply can generally be accounted for by higher wages, lower fixed...
EVERY QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING HAS FAILED: Kevin Warsh's Balance Sheet Fantasy, the $9T Debt Wall & Why the Fed's Inevitable Pivot...
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell, testified before Congress urging a reduction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. He warned of a $9 trillion debt wall and $2 trillion structural deficits, but offered no timeline for Quantitative Tightening (QT)....
Tariffs and War Drag US Consumer Sentiment to Record Low
The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index dropped to an all-time low. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = BAD NEWS FOR THE US ECONOMY. https://t.co/k0nUUAnksC
Senate Banking Committee Schedules Warsh Fed Chair Vote
The Senate Banking Committee has set a committee vote for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination on Wednesday https://t.co/l3pMHESk0G
Jerome Powell’s Final Fed Press Conference Marks an End to an Era
Jerome Powell is set to hold his final Federal Reserve press conference, a ceremony that could close a decade‑long era of regular Q&A sessions with journalists. Trump‑nominated successor Kevin Warsh has hinted he may scrap future press conferences, arguing the...
Jerome Powell’s Final Fed Press Conference Marks an End to an Era
Jerome Powell is expected to hold his final press conference as Federal Reserve chair on Wednesday, marking the end of a regular Q&A tradition that began in 2024. The press briefings have been a key channel for the Fed to...
DOJ Drops Criminal Probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Clearing Path for Trump’s Nominee
The Justice Department announced it is dropping the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation. The move removes a key obstacle for President Donald Trump’s nominee, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, whose confirmation...