InvestingLive Americas Market News: UAE Leaves OPEC, Trump Says Iran Wants to Open Strait
The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC and OPEC+, cutting its production quota by roughly 300,000 barrels per day. President Trump said Iran has signaled a willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a claim echoed by U.S. intelligence agencies monitoring Tehran’s reaction to a potential U.S. victory declaration. Meanwhile, WTI crude rose above $100 a barrel, pushing gold lower and nudging the S&P 500 higher despite a modest Nasdaq dip tied to OpenAI’s missed growth targets. The market also absorbed news that the U.S. halted chip‑equipment shipments to China’s SMIC, tightening an already strained tech supply chain.
$25 Minimum Wage: The Hidden Cost for Jobs, Prices and Small Business
A federal $25 minimum wage, championed by legislators Analilia Mejia and Delia Ramirez and backed by over 100 groups, would turn labor from a modest expense into a cost shock for many sectors. The rise would force firms to choose...
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low of 49.8 in April 2026 Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Risks
The University of Michigan’s April 2026 Survey of Consumers reported an Index of Consumer Sentiment of 49.8, the weakest reading in the survey’s 50‑year history. The drop follows a surge in one‑year inflation expectations to 4.7% and heightened Middle East...
Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady as Iran Conflict Stokes Inflation Fears
The Federal Reserve is poised to keep its policy rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range as the Iran‑linked war in the Strait of Hormuz lifts oil prices above $108 a barrel, raising inflation concerns. Analysts cite the conflict’s impact on consumer...
Michigan Gas Prices Surge Past $4/Gallon, Nation’s Biggest Weekly Jump
Michigan gasoline prices jumped to over $4 per gallon, the largest weekly increase in the United States, as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude oil to roughly $100 a barrel. Analysts warn the...
Real US Housing Wealth Contracts Ninth Month
The Case‑Shiller 20‑city index posted a modest 0.9% gain in February, the slowest pace since July 2023, marking the ninth consecutive month that real U.S. housing wealth has shrunk. Price growth is now negative in more than half of the...
The Financial Crisis That Didn’t Happen
The Federal Reserve kept policy rates at 0% for roughly eight to nine years after the 2008 crisis, using quantitative easing to stabilize banks. Despite widespread fears, this ultra‑low‑rate environment did not spark a new financial crisis or hyperinflation. Inflation...
Rates Spark: It’s Jay’s Day
The Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by adding $425 bn of Treasury bills, raising total securities holdings by $185 bn, then trimmed monthly bill purchases from $40 bn to $25 bn, signalling comfort with liquidity. Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh aims to speed...
Interest Rates Are the Most Certain Thing About FOMC Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% during its April 28‑29 meeting, marking a third consecutive hold. The decision comes amid heightened uncertainty from the Iran‑Russia war, which is pushing energy...
Home Ownership Rate at 65.3% in Q1 2026
The Census Bureau reported a seasonally adjusted homeownership rate of 65.3% for the first quarter of 2026, a 0.4‑point dip from the fourth quarter of 2025. Rental vacancy held steady at 7.3% while homeowner vacancy remained low at 1.1%. The...
Single‑Family Delinquencies Slip; Multi‑Family Near Bust Levels
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in March Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Near Housing Bust High https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-b15
Why Rate Cuts Might Be Easier Said than Done for the Next Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh, a longtime inflation hawk, has been nominated by President Donald Trump to become the next Federal Reserve chair, raising expectations that he might finally deliver the rate cuts the administration wants. However, a CNBC Fed Survey shows that...
Homeownership Rate Steadies at 65.3% in Q1
The U.S. homeownership rate held steady at 65.3% in the first quarter of 2026, unchanged from the previous quarter and a year earlier. Homeowner vacancy slipped to 1.1% while rental vacancy remained at 7.3%, indicating a pause in the modest...
NAR Chief Economist Offers ‘Best Guess’ About Fed Rate Cuts
National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said the incoming Fed chair may push for a 50‑basis‑point rate cut by mid‑year, while ongoing conflict in Iran could lift 30‑year mortgage rates toward 7%. He noted the U.S. economy shows...
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Climbs to 92.8 in April, Edging up 0.6 Points
The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index edged up 0.6 points to 92.8 in April, reflecting modest optimism despite higher gasoline prices and geopolitical tension. The Present Situation Index fell to 123.8, while the Expectations Index rose to 72.2,...
Schwab Warns Investors $39 Trillion U.S. Debt Could Lift Mortgage Rates and Bond Yields
Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders and head of fixed‑income research Collin Martin warned that the United States’ gross national debt, now over $39 trillion, is reshaping yields, mortgage costs and retirement outcomes. The firm cautioned that complacency could...
Nvidia's $5 T Market‑Cap Surge Drives S&P 500 and Nasdaq to Record Highs
Nvidia’s share price jumped to $216, restoring a $5 trillion market cap and propelling the S&P 500 to a fresh 7,174 record and the Nasdaq to 24,887. The rally came amid AI‑driven optimism, a looming Fed decision and heightened Middle‑East tensions.
In the Shadow of Capital Flight: Summary Statistics and Policy Implications
The Center for Economic and Policy Research released a data‑driven briefing on capital flight, revealing that emerging‑market outflows surged to roughly $1.2 trillion in 2025—about twice the 2024 total. The report attributes the spike to heightened political risk, currency depreciation, and...
The Federal Deficit Is a Mess – but Fixing Social Security Could Help a Lot
The Congressional Budget Office warns that federal deficits will rise from 5.8% of GDP in 2026 to 6.7% by 2036, with public debt climbing to 120% of GDP. While the primary deficit is projected to fall modestly, it remains a...
Powell's Final Fed Meeting Could Shift Soft Landing
Jay Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair is Wednesday. He could go out reinforcing a December cut, or blow up the soft landing trade by hinting hikes are back on the table. Markets are not positioned for the second one. Let's Dive into...
Commentary: Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Growth Decelerates to 0.7% in February
The S&P Cotality Case‑Shiller National Home Price Index rose just 0.7% year‑over‑year in February, a slowdown from 0.8% in January. The modest gain comes despite a brief dip of the 30‑year fixed mortgage below 6% and follows nine consecutive months...
GDP Preview: What to Expect in the First Quarter 2026 Report
Economists expect the United States’ first‑quarter 2026 gross domestic product to grow at roughly a 2% annualized rate. The modest expansion is largely powered by heightened government outlays and a rebound in private investment. However, consumer spending remains tepid, and...
CBRE Forecasts 18% Rise in US CRE Deal Volume in 2026, Office & Retail Lead
CBRE’s Global Head of Research, Henry Chin, PhD, told Broadcast Retirement Network that U.S. commercial‑real‑estate transaction volume is set to climb 18% in 2026 after a 20% jump in Q1 activity. He highlighted office and retail as the sectors with...
Fast Company Warns AI‑driven ‘Perfect Storm’ Threatens Legacy Consulting Firms
Fast Company’s latest analysis warns that a convergence of generative AI, rising interest rates and tighter client budgets is creating a “perfect storm” for traditional consulting powerhouses. The piece cites an 11% workforce reduction at McKinsey and salary freezes across...
The Return of Nonlinear Inflation: Part I
The article warns that the Iran‑related Hormuz disruption could spark a new wave of nonlinear inflation, where supply‑chain stress propagates through the entire production system rather than fading with oil prices. It highlights the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI)...
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Edge Higher Monday as Traders Pause Ahead of Busy Week
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq eked out modest gains on Monday as market participants stepped back to assess a calendar full of corporate earnings, Federal Reserve policy cues and Middle East developments. The pause reflects cautious optimism amid mixed data...
Jerome Powell Ends His Career as Fed Chair
Jerome Powell concluded his eight‑year tenure as Federal Reserve Chair in April 2026, ending a period marked by aggressive rate hikes and a focus on full employment. Under his leadership, inflation was brought down to near the 2% target while...
ADP Weekly NER Pulse 39,250 vs 54,750 Expected
ADP Research released its weekly NER Pulse data for the four weeks ending April 11, showing a four‑week average gain of 54,750 jobs per week—the strongest pace since the survey’s September launch. The reading surpassed the prior week’s 39,250‑job increase and...
Higher Inflation Dampens S&P 500, IG, HY Returns
"Periods of higher inflation are associated with weaker returns in the S&P 500 and the IG and HY indexes, consistent with a policy backdrop of elevated interest rates that restrain risk-taking" -Apollo Slok
Conflicting Consumer Confidence: Record Low vs Rising Survey
So, while the UofM's US Consumer Confidence survey for April dropped to a record low (49.8) in its more than 70 year history, the Conference Board's survey advanced a third straight month... Which one do you think is more indicative... https://t.co/S62aDosNxP
A Perfect Storm Awaits Warsh At The Fed
Kevin Warsh is on track to become the next Federal Reserve chairman when Jerome Powell’s term ends in mid‑May. Senate obstruction was lifted after Sen. Thom Tillis withdrew his hold following the Department of Justice’s decision to close its criminal...
Trimmed Mean Inflation Reveals Rising Price Pressures
Latest from @_vikasbp & me: So You Want to Talk About Trimmed Mean Inflation? Warsh has latched onto trimmed mean PCE as his favored gauge If the goal isn't just cherry picking, word to the wise: trimmed mean also signals elevated & rising...
Americans Report Worst Financial Outlook in 25 Years
"The share of Americans who say their financial situation is getting worse is higher now than at any point in the past 25 years" https://t.co/bXBhNbd9o4 https://t.co/DKU9wIXtK4
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Stimulus Checks Explained: Definition, Benefits, and Key Criticisms
Stimulus checks are direct cash payments from the U.S. government designed to spur consumer spending during economic downturns. The most recent rounds, issued under the CARES Act and American Rescue Plan, provided up to $1,400 per adult, with eligibility tied...
US Export Growth Near Zero Excluding Re‑exports, Gold
Your Stat Of The Day, from @OxfordEconomics & @business: if you exclude re-exports and gold exports, both of which rose very sharply last year for non-trade reasons, US export growth "is close to zero." https://t.co/FWnMD6yRNM
Service‑spending Optimism Paired with Declining Purchase Intent
"Consumers planning more spending on services over the next six months also shifted from 'yes' and 'maybe' to 'no' in April." - @Conferenceboard https://t.co/ciqEQIcMU4
The Daily Feather — Just Passing Through
The Daily Feather post explores the shortest and longest coast‑to‑coast drives across the contiguous United States, noting the shortest route is about 2,800 miles and the longest exceeds 3,000 miles. It also embeds four Dallas Fed manufacturing charts covering 2004‑2025,...
Prevailing Belief: 5% Inflation From GFC to Pre‑Covid
Pretty wild that from the GFC through pre-Covid, folks thought inflation would be 5% https://t.co/NTWRmpY7nk
Redbook Sales Jump 7.7% YoY, Best Since 2022
Redbook retail sales +7.7% YoY - highest since late 2022 Index is a weekly sales-weighted measure of YoY SSS growth across ~9k large US gen. merch. retailers. Covering locations open 12+ mos, it reps >80% of official US Dept. of Commerce...
Trump’s ‘Gold Card’ Visas Were Supposed to Solve the $39 Trillion National Debt. They’ve only Sold One
President Trump revived his controversial "gold card" visa scheme, charging wealthy immigrants $5 million for a green‑card‑plus‑citizenship pathway that could theoretically raise trillions. The Treasury’s $39 trillion debt and soaring $1 trillion annual interest costs have spurred such revenue ideas, but only one...
Gold Slides to $4,600 as Oil‑Driven Inflation Fears Grip US Markets
Spot gold slipped to $4,612 an ounce, a 1.5% drop that pushed the metal toward the $4,600 level. The sell‑off was sparked by rising crude prices and fresh data that suggest US inflation may stay elevated, tightening the Federal Reserve’s...
U.S. Equity Futures Stay Flat at All‑time Highs as Risk Sentiment Improves
U.S. equity futures were flat at all‑time highs on Tuesday morning, reflecting a lift in risk appetite after an Axios report that Iran offered a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The market awaits earnings from companies representing...
U.S. Treasury Sells $70 Billion of 5‑Year Notes, Yields Hit 3.955% as Auction Tails Modestly
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $70 billion of 5‑year notes on Monday, posting a high yield of 3.955% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.33. The modest tail and rising yields underscore tightening conditions in the fixed‑income market as investors weigh higher rates...
The Social Security Trust Fund Is Now Projected to Run Out in 2032 -- One Year Sooner Than Expected
The Congressional Budget Office now projects that the Social Security Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will be exhausted by 2032, a year earlier than the 2025 Trustees’ Report forecast. The earlier depletion is driven by policy changes such...
Treasury Yields Rise as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Hit an Impasse
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Tuesday as the United States and Iran hit an impasse in peace talks. The 10‑year note rose to 4.356%, the 2‑year to 3.822% and the 30‑year to 4.960%, each gaining a few basis points....
Transition to a New Fed Chair Is Unlikely to Mean Immediate Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 3.5%‑3.75% as Jerome Powell chairs what is likely his final meeting as Fed chair. Powell’s term as a governor runs until early 2028, but his successor, Kevin Warsh,...
Rand Paul’s “Six Penny Plan” To Balance the Federal Budget in Five Years
Senator Rand Paul introduced the “Six Penny Plan,” a bill that would shrink the federal budget by six percent each year for five years. The across‑the‑board cuts would apply to every department, leaving agency heads to allocate reductions internally. If...
Weekly Basis Points Report Flags Rising Threat to Fed Independence
BMO's latest Weekly Basis Points commentary says the Senate is likely to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed chair and notes the DOJ is dropping its criminal probe into the central bank. The report warns that the Treasury’s growing reliance on...
Economist Says Fed Needs Calmer Oil Market and Lower Inflation Before Cutting Rates
Senior economist Sam Williamson of First American warned that the Federal Reserve will not consider lowering interest rates until core inflation eases below its 2% target, the labor market shows clearer signs of weakening, and oil price volatility subsides. His...
Ray Dalio Warns US Stagflation, Says Rate Cuts Would Erode Fed Credibility
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio told CNBC the US has entered a stagflationary environment, citing 3.3% year‑over‑year inflation in March and a projected 2.2% Q1 growth. He warned that any move by the incoming Fed chair to lower rates would...