Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
Federal Reserve President Christopher Hammack warned that inflation remains too high and broadly based, signaling that the central bank will likely keep interest rates on hold for an extended period. He reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to its inflation mandate while expressing confidence in its ability to manage price and labor pressures. Simultaneously, Hammack emphasized the resilience of the U.S. dollar’s global role, citing strong U.S. fundamentals, legal credibility, and emerging stablecoin demand. He noted that neither the euro nor other currencies are poised to displace the dollar soon.
Another horrendous jobs report saved mortgage rates today. Had it come in hot, we'd likely have a 30-year fixed closer to 6.25% again during peak home buying season. Granted, w/o the conflict in Iran we'd probably be at 5.875% or lower...
The Logistics Manager’s Index rose to 61.5 in February, the strongest reading since February 2025 and above the long‑term average of 61.3. Inventory levels slipped to 53.8 while inventory cost pressure eased, yet warehousing utilization accelerated and transportation prices jumped...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Collins signaled that the central bank’s policy rate will likely remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. He emphasized that any future rate cuts will require clear evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target....
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said the February jobs report, which showed a loss of 92,000 non‑farm payrolls, strengthens the case for additional rate cuts. He argued that inflation is not a pressing problem and that monetary policy is currently...
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The February 2026 jobs report showed U.S. employers shed 92,000 positions, pushing unemployment to 4.4%. Within hospitality, restaurants and bars shed nearly 30,000 jobs, marking the first monthly decline after eight straight gains. The loss is largely attributed to Winter...
U.S. workers now need about 66 full workdays each year to cover rent, groceries and a used car, seven days more than in 2007. Although average hourly wages have risen 66% since the 2008 crisis, the cost of essential goods...
Senator Chris Van Hollen introduced a bill to eliminate federal income tax for individuals earning up to $46,000 and married couples earning up to $92,000, potentially covering nearly half of U.S. workers. The measure would raise the number of taxpayers...
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Donald Trump’s pick, has been nominated to chair the Federal Reserve. Warsh is known for advocating aggressive rate cuts and a loose monetary stance that many analysts deem risky in the current inflationary...
The U.S. labor market contracted in February as nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000, marking the second‑largest monthly loss since early 2025. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% and the labor‑force participation rate fell to 62.0%, the lowest level since...
The birth-death model added -46k fewer jobs to the NSA tally this Feb vs last Feb, but it also added +44k to Jan26 vs Jan25. It just shifted around job growth in the first 2 months. Blaming B/D for the...
The latest BLS jobs report showed U.S. employment contracting by 92,000 jobs in February, with a further 69,000‑job downgrade for December and January, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, employers added just 156,000 jobs—far below...
The February nonfarm payroll report showed an unexpected 92,000‑job decline, with truck transportation employment slipping by 500 to 1,462,500 positions. This marks a 22,100‑job shortfall compared with a year earlier and a net loss of 4,700 jobs since December. Warehouse...
US retail sales slipped 0.2% month‑on‑month in January, bringing total sales to $733.5 billion, though they remain 3.2% higher than a year ago. The decline outperformed the modest growth forecast but was attributed to severe winter weather curbing brick‑and‑mortar traffic. Health‑care,...
The article explains that once a worker’s earnings exceed the Social Security payroll tax ceiling—$160,200 in 2024—high‑income earners stop paying the 6.2 % tax on additional wages. This “cap” lets million‑dollar earners retain more of their income while their future benefits...
The U.S. labor market contracted sharply in February, shedding 92,000 jobs, with the private sector absorbing the bulk of the loss. Temporary strikes in health care accounted for roughly one‑third of the decline, while manufacturing shed another 12,000 positions, bringing...
A lot of hyperbolic takes on the jobs report. It was a soft (bad) report. On both surveys. Both were better in Jan There are reasons for data volatility that need more smoothing now. Labor income growth stable around 4.5% Prime...
In an interview with @nytimes, @Austan_Goolsbee describes February's jobs report as a "tough" one, although he stressed the importance of not overreacting to one month of data. He conceded that the combination of a weakening labor market and higher inflation risks...
Weak February employment data, showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, coincided with oil prices climbing to $90 a barrel and U.S. gas prices jumping 10%. The mixed signals have revived investor expectations that the Federal Reserve could pivot to a...
NFP swings by industry between Feb 2026 & prior 12M average. Couple of notes: 1. Even adj for Kaiser strike, health care was near-0 in Feb, a large swing down from its prior +36K/M average. 2. Big down swings in Leisure &...
February’s jobs report showed a net loss of 92,000 positions, with the private sector shedding 86,000 jobs and government payrolls down 6,000. The headline unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, while the broader U6 underemployment measure fell slightly to 7.9%....
U.S. non‑farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped 92,000 in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4% and prompting analysts to anticipate further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index (DXY) slipped to 99.063 from 99.308 as markets digested the weaker labor...
February's jobs report will certainly stoke divisions at the Fed. Some officials are highly concerned about the health of the labor market and willing to cut rates to support it. Others seem more attuned to the risk posed by inflation,...
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 6, 2026: Big macro morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales at 8:30am — these numbers could move the entire market at the open. Expect volatility right out of the gate as traders react to...
The Congressional Budget Office now projects that the Social Security Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2032, a year earlier than its 2023 forecast. The acceleration stems from higher inflation‑driven cost‑of‑living adjustments and weaker payroll‑tax revenue....
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
Surging inflation and sagging employment double whammy for the fragile real estate market in 2026 https://t.co/4yrdR28tG3
Republican lawmakers passed a federal budget that slashes Medicare and Medicaid spending by up to $1 trillion over the next decade. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the cuts cut 12 years off Medicare Part A’s projected solvency and will push Social Security’s...
Chicago Booth's Anil Kashyap re:Fed's Mary Daly&Anna Paulson: "If there's anybody from the WH here, I think you should have confidence that you have 2 very thoughtful people looking at the numbers...would be a shame if that's not true 2...
"If the liquidity requirement framework were revised to recognize banks’ capacity to borrow from the discount window, reserve demand could fall by a lot, perhaps about $1 trillion." https://t.co/kkmZqcwLGH
Over the last 6 months, payroll employment growth has averaged -1K/month while the unemployment rate has risen +0.12pp. Consistent with the idea that we're at a shallow but still slightly-positive breakeven on the NFP side, which we're obviously not clearing over...
Over the last 12 months basically every cyclical industry but construction and leisure/hospitality has negative job growth. The new news today is the negative Education/Health, but the cyclical economy has been weak for a long time. https://t.co/TdUz4KvRxm
If only there were a monetary policy regime that made it easier for central banks to navigate such trying times… oh wait https://t.co/XA5Pw2bVIi (1/2)
A fundamental thread to keep an eye on after the NFPs miss: the implied FOMC rate cuts through Fed Funds futures overlaid with the $DXY Dollar index. CPI and PCE next week. FOMC rate decision the Wednesday after next https://t.co/Rslg81c0CC
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
US #NFPs dropped in February by -92K vs +70K expected and +126K added in January. This was the biggest downside 'surprise' (-162K) since the pandemic shutdown (specifically Aug 2021) https://t.co/HgS3Y8EA9t
At a time when markets are pushing back Fed cut odds because of the oil spike, seeing jobs data that demands rate cuts leaves everyone unhappy. Stagflation, directionally. Not there yet but pointing that way.
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Important point: February was a dismal jobs report. But look closer at who is suffering the most in this frozen job market... Young people African Americans Hispanic Americans Asian Americans These are the groups that have had the biggest uptick in unemployment rates. https://t.co/zszvNZ2Xv3
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
Yikes. Almost every major industry group shed jobs in February. Private sector overall: -86,000 Hospitality -27,000 Healthcare -28,000 Manufacturing -12,000 Tranport/warehouse -11,000 Construction -11,000 Information -11,000 Federal gov't -10,000 Professional/biz -5,000 Mining -2,000 Social assistance +9,000 Finance +10,000 #jobs
If things were normal, the Dollar should be falling sharply right now. We just got a -1.9 standard deviation surprise on payrolls, which should be weighing on USD. But nothing about today is normal. We're in a massive risk-off and...
After seeing the weak jobs data, my view is ever stronger that "slugfation" (sluggish economic growth coupled with sticky inflation) lies ahead. @thestreetpro @dougkass @tomkeene @ferrotv @business @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @ScottWapnerCNBC @carlquintanilla @jimcramer @pboockvar @guyadami @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @WhitneyTilson @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick
The economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Revisions subtracted 69,000 in December and January from previously reported job growth, leading to negative job growth in December.
February Non-Farm Payrolls prints at -92K vs expected 58K - previously 126K Unemployment ticks up to 4.4% vs expected hold
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Dow down 785 points on March 5. Worst week since October. Oil at $81. Yields rising. VIX spiking. And somehow, everyone's still debating whether this is a "healthy pullback." There is nothing healthy about a supply chain in cardiac arrest. https://t.co/t59DwX0YJy
$SPX :6775 is active support, then the lows of the week at 6710. Jobs report at 8:30 could change the picture — the street is modeling ~+55k, and in-line or a little stronger would be better than a miss. https://t.co/qIBCw3h3lN
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
NFP Surprise? The data certainly says so. Here are the "leading indicators" for the US jobs report that I follow and it overwhelmingly calls for a beat We'll be trading it live with you at 8:10AM ET Join us on X or...
