The Long Bond Yield Is Signaling a Huge Fear of Inflation
The 30‑year U.S. Treasury long‑bond yield rose to 5.01%, just 17 basis points shy of an 18‑year peak. A 7% oil price surge to $107 per barrel has added upward pressure, while technical charts point to a potential breakout toward 5.44%. Analysts warn that the bond market is pricing in heightened inflation risk amid escalating geopolitical tension with Iran. The author predicts further yield gains unless diplomatic developments intervene.
Fed Independence Lost; Inflation Expectations Spike Amid Rate Dilemma
The Powell saga is a distraction. The Fed’s independence has been gone for a while. To be fair, what did people expect? Inflation is still elevated while debt service is already at unsustainable levels. You either crush the system with high rates, or...
Fed’s $9 Trillion Money Printing Drove Inflation, Not Supply Shocks
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell. Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth:...
AI Spending Drives Business Equipment Investment to 6-Year High
U.S. core capital‑goods orders jumped 3.3 % in March, the strongest rise since mid‑2020, driven largely by AI and data‑center spending. The increase far exceeded economists’ 0.5 % forecast, signaling renewed confidence after a year of policy‑related caution. Major tech firms such...
Bond Market Sees 12% Chance of Fed Hike, 5% Cut
The bond market is now pricing in a higher probability of a Fed RATE HIKE (12%) by the end of this year than a RATE CUT (5%). https://t.co/i77bnsp7MR
Powell’s 2025 Easing May Not Offset Job Losses
"Remember there is a dual mandate at the Fed we have data out this morning that showed 3rd quarter of 2025 the economy lost an average of 53000 jobs a month. The question is was Powell aggressive enough in easing...
Generac Holdings Q1 Profit Jumps 67% as Backup Power Demand Fuels Revenue Surge
Generac Holdings Inc. posted a first‑quarter profit of $73.25 million, up 67% from a year earlier, and revenue of $1.059 billion, a 12.4% increase. The surge reflects heightened consumer spending on home backup power systems, signaling confidence in disposable income and broader...
Fed Holds Rates Amid Most Divided Vote Since 1992
FOMC: Fed leaves the FFR unchanged at 3.50-3.75% The vote was the most divided FOMC decision since 1992 (8-4 in favour of holding rates).
Gold Slides to $4,598 as Yields, Dollar and Powell Speech Pressure Bullion
Spot gold slipped to $4,598, its biggest one‑day loss in weeks, while silver fell 2.7% as higher U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar and the pending Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech converge. Traders see the move as a test of...
All Major Rates Climbing: Oil, Yields, Dollar Surge
Higher oil Higher yields Higher dollar Higher USDJPY Higher SOFR Market, show me you care.
IUX Analysis Says Fed Leadership Shifts Will Bolster Dollar Strength
IUX released a new market analysis warning that upcoming Federal Reserve leadership transitions are likely to reinforce the U.S. dollar’s upward trajectory. The report ties the leadership uncertainty to tighter global financial conditions and heightened volatility across equities, commodities and...
Skydio Commits $3.5 Billion to U.S. Drone Manufacturing, Adding 2,000 Jobs
Skydio announced a $3.5 billion, five‑year investment to build a new manufacturing complex in California, promising more than 2,000 direct jobs and supporting 3,000 additional U.S. positions. The move aims to reduce reliance on Chinese components and cement the company’s role...
2026 More Likely to See Rate Hike Than Cut
🚨 There is now a higher chance of a rate hike than a rate cut in 2026. https://t.co/yKg7oHD4Mv
FOMC Dissent Architecture: How Internal Fracture Engineers Bear Flattening
On April 29, 2026 the Federal Open Market Committee held rates at 3.50‑3.75% while four members cast bidirectional dissent – one for a cut and three against easing language. The split created immediate policy uncertainty, driving the two‑year Treasury yield...
Apple Earnings, March PCE, Q1 GDP, Mortgage Rates: What to Watch
Apple reported fiscal Q2 results that topped analyst expectations, buoyed by stronger iPhone sales in China, double‑digit growth in services, and a surprise uptick in Mac shipments. The company also disclosed that CEO Tim Cook will step down in September,...
SPECIAL REPORT: Chaos At The Fed? | Axel Merk
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee left its policy rate unchanged, but a record three members dissented, warning that the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict could reignite inflation and strain supply chains. The vote marked the final meeting chaired by Jerome Powell,...
Powell’s Parting Gift: How One Chair’s Dissents Could Constrain the Next
Jerome Powell, in his final 18 months as Fed chair, deliberately tolerated dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, shifting decision‑making from a chair‑centric model to a more independent committee. By allowing members to voice opposition, Powell reduced the informal...
April FOMC: Hawks Push Back As Inflation Risks Rise
The Federal Reserve left its policy range unchanged at 3.50%‑3.75% during the April 2026 FOMC meeting, but three regional presidents formally dissented, flagging concerns over persistent inflation and volatile energy prices. Chair Jerome Powell stressed Fed independence and signaled a...
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady: Here's What that Means for Credit Cards, Mortgages, Car Loans and Savings Rates
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.5%‑3.75% target range, a decision likely made by Chair Jerome Powell in his final meeting. The hold reflects persistent inflation pressures tied to the Iran conflict and limited policy space...
Fed Holds Rates Steady and Ends the Powell Era Deeply Divided
The Wall Street Journal’s "What's News" episode covers the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady amid an unprecedented four‑member dissent, marking the end of Jerome Powell’s chairmanship and foreshadowing a transition to Trump‑picked nominee Kevin Warsh. Powell announced he...
Manufacturing Ripples Beneath the Surface
U.S. manufacturing weekly hours worked rose to 41.4, the highest level since 2022, and have stayed above the 36‑month moving average for 14 consecutive months. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the 50‑point expansion threshold in early 2026, while payroll...
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 4.42% on Wednesday, driven primarily by heightened geopolitical risk from a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade. The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement added only a marginal uptick, with yields rising one basis point after the meeting....
Humana Q1 Profit Falls to $1.18 Billion as Medical Costs Rise
Humana Inc. posted first‑quarter profit of $1.18 billion, down from $1.24 billion a year earlier, as medical cost inflation eroded margins. Revenue surged 23.5% to $39.64 billion, reflecting higher enrollment and service utilization. The results underscore pressure on U.S. health‑insurers and signal broader...
Takeaways From Powell’s Final News Conference as Fed Chair.
Jerome Powell concluded his tenure as Federal Reserve chair on May 15, 2026, and announced he will remain on the Board as a governor through January 2028. He pledged a low‑profile presence to facilitate a smooth handoff to incoming chair Kevin M....
ANALYSIS: Fed Hold Keeps Markets Anchored as Rate-Cut Timeline Slips
The Federal Reserve left its policy range unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75%, cementing a "higher for longer" stance despite inflation still above target and heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict. The vote revealed four dissenting governors—the most opposition since 1992—signaling deep...
Markets Are Mixed Amid Fed Uncertainty: Stock Market Today
The Fed’s FOMC voted 8‑4 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5‑3.75%, citing elevated inflation driven by higher global energy prices. Stocks slipped, with the Dow down 0.6% and the S&P 500 flat, while the Nasdaq edged higher as...
Mortgage Rates Surge Higher as US Considers a Longer Blockade
Mortgage rates jumped to a 30‑year fixed average of 6.50%, the highest since March 30, after a rapid surge driven primarily by geopolitical tension over a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade. The blockade fears lifted oil prices and Treasury yields,...
Fed Leaves Rate Unchanged During Powell’s Final Meeting as Chair
The Federal Reserve left its target federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% during Chairman Jerome Powell’s final FOMC meeting, despite dissent from Governor Stephen Miran and three regional presidents. Recent data show a resilient labor market, a modest rise in...
Wednesday - April 29, 2026
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host Brian Seitel reviews a mixed market day marked by a dip in major indices, rising bond yields, and a surge in oil prices driven by Middle East tensions and the UAE’s exit...
Fed Holds Rates, Dissenting Hawk Calls for Cut
Hawks squawk amidst “assaults” The Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines with rates held in the 3.5to 3.75% range. The statement underscored the uncertainty regarding “developments in the Middle East.” The vote was not unanimous in a very unique way. Governor...
Monetary Policy Must Adapt to AI-Driven Growth
All you need to know about monetary policy in a world of AI-supercharged growth. ⬇️
Dissent Shows Most Disunited Fed Since 1992
The Federal Open Market Committee left rates unchanged in April, but recorded four dissenting votes—the most since 1992—highlighting a deep split over inflation risks. The dissenters opposed both a rate cut and the Fed’s “easing bias,” signaling discomfort with any...
Powell to Lose QE Chair, Warsh Takes Over
And here is Powell at the press conference: Regime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants Smaller Balance Sheet But Powell will stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and...
Fed Cuts Raise 30-Year Yield; Inflation Still Looming
The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%. They cut rates 175 bps and the 30-year yield is now approaching 5%. The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed....
Thursday: Fed Holds with 'Hawkish' Dissenters
The episode reviews the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, noting three dissenting governors who opposed an easing bias, and examines the market reaction, including a dip in U.S. equities and a rise in oil prices after Donald Trump’s comments...
30‑Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5%, Near 18‑Year
*US 30-YEAR YIELD TOUCHES 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2025 Now just 11 bps from a new 18-year high. https://t.co/Aow1azOUWb
Markets Expect Rate Hike, Not Cut, by April 2027
Markets are now pricing in rate hike rather than a rate cut by the April 2027 meeting. Yup. #FOMC
Jerome Powell Says He Will Remain on the Fed Board After Stepping Down as Chair
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced he will remain on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends on May 15, marking the first time a departing Fed chair has stayed on the board since 1948. The move comes as...
Explaining Powell Critique Live with Jack Farley, Max Wiethe
I will be on with @JackFarley96 and @maxwiethe in about 15 minutes. And for those torching me on my Powell takes, I will explain further. (For everyone else, Powell is making a terrible mistake by staying.)
Powell Remains on Fed Board as Rates Hold Steady
You're not quite rid of me. #JeromePowell sez he w/remain as #TheFed governor after his term as chairman ends. Bank holds #interestrates steady. #KevinWarsh era about to begin. Most divisive the board has been in decades. #realestate #CRE #mortgage #Trump...
Fed Pauses Interest Rates Again as Commercial Real Estate Awaits New FOMC Chair
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% in an 8‑4 vote, marking the third consecutive hold and the highest dissent since 1992. Four governors voted against the pause, citing lingering inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict...
Tracking Powell's Exit as Signal of Political Pressure End
A new prediction market that I'll be watching to monitor the probabilities around a theme rather than a market: When Jerome Powell will leave the Fed board. Will mark end of political pressure. Similar to Hormuz normality as gauge of...
Fed Chair’s Bold Stand Marks Historic Independence Moment
Three powerful dissents to send a message and a chair taking a strong and clear stance on Fed independence at the podium This is a meeting for the history books, wow https://t.co/mvk7BE5Fdt
Powell Likely to Be Fed’s Final Independent Chair
What are the odds that Jerome Powell is the last independent Fed chair? My take is it's higher than you think
Powell Warns Fed Independence Threatened by Political Pressure
Chair Powell says Fed independence is "at risk." "We're having to resort to the courts to enforce our legal — it's not so much independence. It's really the ability to make monetary policy without political considerations ... We've been successful so...
Powell Adopts PR Role to Defend Fed Independence
Seems Powell is going to take up a pseudo PR role for Fed independence now that he is handing off the Chairmanship role. They are putting out very clear messaging pushing back on the political pressure.
Not a Budget Crisis—Just Overspending on Promises
True. But more generally, please don’t call it a ‘Budget Crisis’ even if he does. It’s not a budget crisis. It’s a crisis of “I can’t pay for all the massive NEW AND IDIOTIC spending I’ve promised.” https://t.co/OpdE81Q0qK
Powell: Neutral Rate Uncertain, but We're Near It
Powell says we can't know what the neutral rate is definitively, but says we are pretty close to it now
Fed Independence Persists: Powell, Warsh Impact Markets & Gold
Post FOMC analysis with @adamtaggart - Fed independence/ Powell staying on / Warsh Fed / implications for markets / gold https://t.co/V94nEWpvPn
Fed's Vague “Adjustments” Reveal FOMC Uncertainty
This was NOT a bias. The Fed statement mentioned it as such in the vaguest ways possible "adjustments" instead of rate cuts, which is a reflection of the fact that the FOMC itself is uncertain abt the outlook.