Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
President Donald Trump has launched a direct military campaign against Iran despite a domestic economy plagued by rising unemployment and stubborn inflation. The article argues that the conflict will further erode public finances, adding new pressure on the federal budget. Investors are likely to reassess the safety of US Treasury holdings as war‑related spending escalates. The piece questions whether the America First mantra can survive such an overseas engagement.
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Recent employment trends combined with the oil price spike suggest recession risk is rising, and this was not on the market's bingo card this year... Though February job losses were skewed by one-time effects, the weakness is nonetheless part of...
Mortgage rates rose on March 9, with the average 30‑year fixed climbing to 5.98% and the 15‑year fixed to 5.50%, driven by bond market anxiety from Middle East tensions and a weak jobs report. Refinance rates are higher, with the 30‑year...
There is a lot of chat about whether this will be "as bad" as 2022. From inflationary pov, unlikely. And CBs shouldn't be too worried about wage-price spirals, despite the endless overshoot. But my worry is that it tips labour...
"Tariffs may have affected manufacturing employment, which declined by 119,000 in 2025. Likewise, the trade sensitive transportation and warehousing sector declined by 123,800." https://t.co/ed9bs6nNSn
A new SBI Research report suggests that revaluing the United States’ gold reserves at current market prices could eliminate roughly 70% of the federal budget deficit. The reserves are still recorded at 1973 valuation levels, creating a massive accounting gap....
The war in Iran is scrambling the economic outlook for the Federal Reserve — again. https://t.co/TGmVeLOISN
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index edged higher in February, reaching 105.37 from 105.18 in January. The modest rise was driven mainly by a drop in involuntary part‑time work and a slight improvement in firms’ ability to fill vacancies. However,...
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Polymarket’s recession contract defines a U.S. recession as an NBER declaration for any quarter in 2025 or 2026, issued before the BEA releases its Q4 2026 advance estimate. Because the NBER typically confirms recessions with a lag, the contract’s definition lowers...
This is inflation, unfunded spending and war. The exact opposite of what Trump has campaigned on.
we're up just 150k for native-born workers over the last year https://t.co/eUQjDMCvxT The growth in employment was 1.5 million 2024 to 2025, but we know Trumpers are scared of numbers
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
With this move in energy and commodities prices, inflation will have a 5-handle in no time. And with that, rate cuts will be firmly off the table this year. Due to the upcoming pain for the U.S consumer, I believe we'll...
The February 2026 jobs report showed a modest gain that was largely distorted by severe weather disruptions, according to Dean Baker’s analysis. While the headline numbers suggested a stable labor market, underlying data reveal that job growth has slowed sharply...
🚨 THREE PRINTS. ONE VERDICT. This week's economic calendar isn't routine. Wednesday CPI, Friday GDP revision + Core PCE, and Friday Michigan Sentiment all land before the March 18 FOMC meeting. Together, they'll either confirm or bury the stagflation story that's been...
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
In 2025, Canadian tourism to the United States dropped 25% after heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump‑era rhetoric. The decline hit service‑oriented ZIP codes where Canadian visitors comprised at least 1% of foot traffic, leading to a 6% employment contraction in...
Small caps down more than 3% because 1.) Inflation is a much bigger worry than a week ago and no cuts are coming? 2.) Sell the winners? 3.) Lucy https://t.co/3gsriv02Qd
"Job growth notably stalled after President Trump began his tariff barrage last April, which created economic uncertainty and raised business costs." https://t.co/jaNVkXohlg
The Federal Reserve entered 2026 optimistic about a soft landing, but the sudden Iran‑Israel conflict has driven crude above $95 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to record highs and reviving cost‑push inflation concerns. A weak jobs report further erodes labor‑market...
Why the oil shock won't cause stagflation or recession: #1 U.S. less energy intensive than in past price spikes. Gasoline consumption lower today in in 2007. #2. U.S. net petroleum exporter. Therefore mildly positive for terms of trade. (link to...
The Financial Times warns that rising oil prices threaten to fuel inflation. WRONG. Oil shocks change RELATIVE prices, but DO NOT cause SUSTAINED inflation. INFLATION IS ALWAYS & EVERYWHERE A MONETARY PHENOMENON. https://t.co/zvENzIWzCy
In this episode, host David interviews Peter Conti‑Brown about his recent essay outlining three possible reforms to the Fed‑Treasury relationship, focusing on discount‑window liquidity and its stigma. They discuss recent remarks by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Treasury Secretary Janet...
JPM: "If the oil supply shock is sustained, we think each 10% increase in oil prices should translate to a ~10bp gain in headline PCE inflation and a 15-20bp drag on GDP growth."
"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards... I'm going to call that a jobs recession." https://t.co/GZQfUVRfWG
The episode breaks down the surprisingly weak February jobs report, which showed a loss of 92,000 jobs and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, highlighting sectoral declines in health care, construction, manufacturing, and hospitality. WSJ economics reporter Justin Layhart explains...
Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
If the Trumpers were smart, they would blame the bad jobs numbers on the weather https://t.co/iTCQe8K3EY
Mortgage rates remained relatively flat this week despite opposing forces in the bond market. A sharp surge in oil prices initially pushed rates higher by stoking inflation concerns, but a surprisingly weak jobs report later that day pulled yields down....
@sffed updated their numbers Friday: Strong 2.6% labor productivity growth driven by higher utilization: deeper use of capital & labor, e.g. existing data centers exerting higher CPU loads. To be clear, this is real & it may be AI-related, but it's not...
PMI shows US manufacturing softness. That means supply chains too. What will the Iraq war do?
February’s employment report showed a net loss of 92,000 jobs, nudging the unemployment rate to 4.4% and pushing labor‑force participation down to 62%, its lowest level since late 2021. The decline was led by a 28,000‑job drop in healthcare, driven...
High yield credit (HYG) down 0.5% on March 6th. When junk bonds sell off alongside equities, it means credit markets are sniffing out real economic stress, not just a volatility event. Watch HYG. It leads. Always. https://t.co/HpbzOsBALw
Russell 2000 down 2.3%. Small caps are the canary. They need cheap credit, domestic demand, and labor stability. They have none of those right now. If you're waiting for small cap leadership to confirm a bull market, you'll be waiting a while. https://t.co/mDOKLhcosE
Iran war headlines will be in focus this week but US inflation will also be front and center. Here are the reports to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US -CPI -Personal Income/Spending -UMich Sentiment Index -Durable Goods -Housing Data 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ & GE IP -GE Trade 🇨🇦 CA -Jobs -Trade
If Citrini publishes a substack post this weekend about an extended Strait of Hormuz closure scenario S&P futures are going to open Sunday night limit down huh
New at THE OVERSHOOT: If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before... https://t.co/EpRm2cRwzB The big question is whether the latest "shock", which by my count is at least the 3rd in the past 6 years, is enough to recalibrate beliefs about what's...
The Fed’s biggest fear has always been having to choose between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Friday’s employment report brought that dilemma a step closer. “Let’s not overreact to one month’s numbers, but an environment in which inflation is rising and...
There are measurement issues, and they go both ways. But what is really important for this lying hunk of shit is that whatever problems raise the measured rate of inflation now were also there UNDER Biden. Which means Trump got...
Mortgage spreads continue to keep mortgage rates in check as Iran war sp... https://t.co/iBMRx6aFsB via @YouTube
Supply of Labor Fell in 2025 on Immigration Crackdown: Massive Change in Labor Market Dynamics that Explains a Lot. The annual adjustments of the labor force to the new population estimates are in, and they’re revealing https://t.co/MX3qqP698c https://t.co/slvC9NEfqW
So in the same day we got negative data points/price action on: -jobs -oil -private credit -AI capex intentions
if you expected a gain of 55K jobs and the economy instead lost 92K and you thought two months ago the economy gained 48K jobs, but it turns out it lost 17K i mean what are we even doing here
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
