
Republican lawmakers passed a federal budget that slashes Medicare and Medicaid spending by up to $1 trillion over the next decade. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the cuts cut 12 years off Medicare Part A’s projected solvency and will push Social Security’s trust fund to run out by the end of 2031, a year earlier than previously forecast. If funding continues to dwindle, Medicare benefits are projected to decline at least 8 % by 2040, forcing hospitals and health centers to reduce services or close. The combined effect threatens the long‑term viability of both entitlement programs and the broader health‑care delivery system.

The market is eyeing the upcoming Non‑Farm Payroll and U.S. retail‑sales releases after a week of volatility sparked by the U.S.–Iran conflict. Geopolitical tension has nudged the S&P 500 outlook toward the downside, yet it has not yet altered payroll expectations,...

WTI crude oil yodeling higher.. > $84 But stocks are OK with that... for now... payrolls & Jan retail sales on tap... @teconomics https://t.co/jopqYDfXo3

Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA

Peter Conti‑Brown outlines three separate Fed‑Treasury accords: one freeing the Treasury from setting monetary policy, a second keeping the Fed out of partisan politics, and a third enhancing collaboration on public‑debt management. He traces the historic 1951 Accord that granted...

According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 78% of Americans say inflation is a very big concern for them personally. AFFORDABILITY = GOING TO GET WORSE = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/z3qgrkZ7V2

Fannie Mae: Get use to these mortgage rates Fannie Mae's forecast for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Q3 2026 --> 6.0% Q4 2026 --> 6.0% Q1 2027 --> 6.0% Q2 2027 --> 6.0% Q3 2027 --> 6.0% Q4 2027 --> 6.0%

Home builders surveyed by NAHB/Wells Fargo evaluated 14 long‑term forces that could shape housing demand over the next decade. They identified five risks—government debt, declining fertility, long‑term inflation, falling marriage rates, and energy costs—as likely to weigh on industry health....

That young workers are broadly seeing a decline in employment rates regardless of education is consistent with our low-churn labor market. Hiring & voluntary quits have corrected from their 2021/22 Great Resignation highs & now young workers are feeling frontline...
Note that "exposure" here does not necessarily mean "job loss". It means AI can automate -- or is now automating -- many of the TASKS involved in a job. That CAN manifest as job loss, but it can also free...

CPA executives showed a notable lift in optimism about the U.S. economy in Q1 2026, with 39% expressing a positive outlook—up from 28% a quarter earlier. Confidence in their own firms also rose, reaching 47% versus 41% in Q4 2025, and 55%...
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...

Everyone is talking about ECB rate hike odds by Dec spiking to 60% from 20% BUT Fed Fund futures show less chance of 25bp cut in June than a week ago (before the Iran strikes) When do you think the Federal Reserve...

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index shows a modest uptick in affordability in Q4 2025, with a median‑priced new home requiring 34 % of a typical family’s income and an existing home 34 % as well. Low‑income households still face severe strain, needing...

Are we finally seeing AI in the productivity data? A big upward revision to earlier data and strong Q4 bring us 2.2% above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Annual rates: 1 year: 2.8% 2 years: 2.5% 6 years: 2.2%
"The 2.2-percent annualized rate of nonfarm business productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is higher than the 1.5-percent rate of the previous business cycle, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019, and...
Weekly jobless claims data showed initial filings unchanged at 213,000, while the four‑week moving average slipped to 215,750. Year‑over‑year, initial claims fell 4.9% and the moving‑average declined 4.7%, signaling a continued “new regime” of lower claims that has persisted for...

This chart shows the = home price an American household on a median income can afford. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/1bNlhKyjp5
As the economy car market shrinks, it’s becoming impossible to find a new vehicle for less than $20,000. https://t.co/rHCJYJoyBn

In 2025 the United States recorded a negative net migration rate as legal immigration was sharply curtailed, a trend that economists warn will dampen economic growth. President Donald Trump has framed this demographic shift as part of a broader “Golden...

Guest post by @Petercontibrown on three potential paths for a new Fed-Treasury accord. https://t.co/99ynaEpsMi @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith @amacker @vtg2 @senoj_erialc https://t.co/xKOGn0fS5W
Florida condo owners lost $60,000 in equity in one year. Orlando condo owners gained 11%. Same state. Same year. I break down exactly why — and what happens next. https://t.co/fY7zpTVEkE

U.S. employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February, a 55% drop from January and 72% lower than February 2025. Year‑to‑date cuts total 156,742, the lowest Jan‑Feb figure since 2022 but still the fifth‑highest since 2009. While overall cuts fell, sectors...
Sorry, this is misleading to the point of being dishonest. Benefits are roughly 20% of compensation. You're saying if benefits costs didn't rise at all, wages could increase more, but benefit increases have actually lagged pay in the last year...

US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
Bond options traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. The probability of a no‑cut scenario rose to 25% by Wednesday, up from 17% before the Iran‑Israel conflict escalated. Higher oil prices from the Middle‑East...
Everyone is trying to explain the mystery of why the job market is weak for college grads, most blaming AI. But that IS NOT THE MYSTERY. The mystery is why is it weak for young workers of ALL EDUCATION LEVELS...
Economic calendar shows we have the employment report and retail sales report at 8:30AM tomorrow.

Mortgage rates slipped further in February, with the 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage averaging 6.05% and briefly dipping below the 6% mark, while the 15‑year rate fell to 5.43%. The 10‑year Treasury yield held near 4.18% for most of the month before...
Backers project, based on Forbes’ billionaires list, that a new wealth tax would raise $4.4 trillion over 10 years for childcare, housing, and a $ 3,000-per-person check for many Americans. https://t.co/6EYBhzxmZP

UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr

The United States is experiencing a prolonged slowdown in real income growth, eroding the optimism that once characterized the post‑war era. Declining private investment rates are identified as the primary engine behind this stagnation, limiting productivity gains and wage increases....

Oracle Plans Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of AI Cash Crunch “In September @Oracle disclosed in a filing it was planning its largest-ever restructuring, which will cost as much as $1.6B in the current fiscal year ending May, incl severance...

since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ

Missouri’s House Commerce Committee advanced a constitutional amendment that would let voters approve a plan to phase out the state’s 4.7% individual income tax in favor of higher sales and use taxes. The proposal, championed by Gov. Mike Kehoe and...
EVERYONE'S BEARISH ON NFP - THEY MIGHT BE WRONG ⚠️4 leading indicators say the US jobs number could surprise to upside Meanwhile $NQ $ES are bleeding and $CL is surging. Here's my breakdown of it all👇 https://t.co/tPjJsIC76Y

Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...

President Donald Trump formally nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, aiming for quicker interest‑rate cuts. Warsh, known for advocating balance‑sheet reduction and lower rates, faces a skeptical FOMC amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli...

Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish....

Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
Some recent data: * ISM services best since Aug '22 * ISM manufacturing >50 two months in row after years < 50 * Auto sales were better than expected * ADP best in 7 months and most of the jobs came from small...
President Trump’s disruptive policies have left some dents, including serious damage to his approval rating, but by the biggest readings of its health, the U.S. economy largely keeps absorbing what he throws at it. My latest column: https://t.co/7lpKP39teh

Companies Report Raging Inflation, Except in Wages & Rents. Double-digit increases in employee health insurance costs hold down wage increases https://t.co/hhJssjhbRm https://t.co/MchphaLdWf
Atlanta Fed Beige Book: “Homebuilders pulled back on housing starts and utilized incentives to shrink speculative inventory. Some builders reported home buyers shopping around for the best deals and often presented “low-ball” offers. This is especially true in the entry-level...

Mortgage rates have eased back toward the 5s today, potentially due to oil transport assurances from the President. The 30-year fixed is just 8 bps away from a 5-handle again, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Jobs report on Friday...
"Tariff refund delays could cost U.S. taxpayers $700 million a month in interest, report finds" https://t.co/MHgXnrl4vk
It was actually contracting before, they just lied about the inflation numbers. But nice to see it's contracting so much that they can't cover it up anymore. 🔥🔥🔥

One of the side effects of the blasé market response to the US-Iran conflict is economic concerns seem to readily overridden by inflation expectations from higher energy prices. Expectations for Fed rate cuts through 2026 have dropped to -41bps -...

The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....

U.S. Gasoline Demand Fell Further amid Long-Term Structural Shift: Plunging Per-Capita Consumption. Even as miles driven rose to a record. https://t.co/8h6llBxdie https://t.co/2aI68HuTGs