Did the Economy Actually Get Stronger During the Iran War? Here’s What Th...
U.S. economic activity rebounded in the first quarter of 2026 despite the ongoing Iran war and higher oil prices. Business investment surged 3.3% in March, the strongest back‑to‑back gain since 2017, while core durable‑goods orders jumped 9.5% YoY, the fastest pace in eight years. Wholesale and retail inventories posted their biggest monthly increases in years, and housing starts reached a 15‑month high. Economists have lifted Q1 GDP forecasts, with some now expecting a 3.0% annualized rise.
Paving the Way for a Warsh Fed
The Justice Department’s decision to drop its probe into the Fed’s building renovation clears the path for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh, long viewed as an inflation hawk, now emphasizes a nuanced definition of inflation,...
What’s Happening at the Federal Reserve Today.
The Senate Banking Committee voted 13‑11 to advance President Trump’s nominee Kevin M. Warsh for Federal Reserve chair, bringing his confirmation closer as Jerome Powell’s term ends May 15. At the Fed’s mid‑June policy meeting, officials are expected to keep the...
Bank Groups Eye Changes to Fed's Relaxed Capital Plans
Bank groups praised the Federal Reserve’s recent capital plan as a step forward but warned that the proposals still overstate risks for certain assets, potentially limiting banks’ ability to expand lending. The Fed’s March package would modestly lower capital requirements...
Home Building Shows Signs of Stabilization with Monthly Gain in Starts
U.S. housing starts rose 10.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 million units, driven by rebounds in both single‑family and multifamily construction. Single‑family starts increased 9.7% to 1.03 million units, while multifamily starts jumped 13.3% to a 470,000‑unit...
Treasuries Slump as Fed Division Reveals Split on Rate Outlook
The Federal Reserve kept rates steady on April 29, but a clear split emerged among policymakers over the Middle East war’s inflation impact. Treasury yields rose sharply, with the two‑year note hitting 3.94% and the 30‑year approaching 5%. Market pricing...
Housing Starts Surge to Highest Level Since December 2024
U.S. housing starts jumped 10.8% in March to an annualized 1.5 million units, the highest level since December 2024. Single‑family starts rose 9.7% to 1.03 million, while multifamily groundbreakings also increased. Builders are using sales incentives to spur demand despite higher mortgage rates...
Geopolitics, Energy Prices, and Supply Chains Drive Uncertain Path for U.S. Inflation
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, with a 0.9% month‑to‑month gain largely fueled by higher energy costs. The OECD has upgraded its 2026 inflation outlook to 4.2%, well above its prior 2.8% estimate and the Federal Reserve’s 2.7%...
US Business Investment, Residential Construction Soar
U.S. core capital goods orders jumped 3.3% month‑to‑month in March, the strongest gain since June 2020, while shipments rose 1.2% for a second straight month. Residential construction also accelerated, with overall housing starts up 11% and single‑family starts near 10%, the...
Hope Beneath the Headlines
RiverFront Investment Group’s April 2026 Chart Pack notes that the Iran‑driven oil shock pushed Brent above $100 per barrel, prompting a modest S&P 500 pullback while the Fed left rates unchanged. Despite the geopolitical turbulence, the United States’ heightened energy independence has...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens as Imports Increase
U.S. goods trade deficit widened in March, reaching $87.9 billion, a 5.3% increase from February. Imports jumped $9.6 billion to $299.3 billion, led by an 11% surge in motor vehicles and gains in food, consumer and capital goods. Exports rose $5.2 billion to $211.5 billion,...
Housing Starts Surge in March Despite Economic Headwinds for Builders
New residential construction starts surged 10.8% in March 2026, matching both month‑over‑month and year‑over‑year growth, while permitting and completions lagged. The Northeast led the rebound, with starts up 18.9% YoY and single‑family starts surpassing one million units for the first...
Ultra‑Wealthy Shift Assets Abroad as California Billionaire Tax Looms
A proposed one‑time 5% wealth tax on California residents with over $1.1 billion in assets, expected to raise $100 billion, is accelerating a trend where ultra‑high‑net‑worth individuals diversify holdings and residency outside the United States. The shift threatens the U.S.’s status as...
Fed Holds Rates Hawkishly, Blames Iran War
🚨 FED DAY PLAYBOOK 🚨 3 things we KNOW happen today: ✅ No rate cut ✅ Hawkish hold ✅ Powell blames Iran war for global uncertainty The wild cards 👇 ❓ Does he stay on as a Fed governor? ❓ Inflation worry vs. growth...
Predicting Fed Tone: Green Gains vs Red Declines
Do you see more GREEN or RED 👀 Before every Fed meeting, I build a table comparing how the economy has shifted since the last one to gauge the likely tone. 🟢 Green = improvement 🔴 Red = deterioration So with that in mind…...
US Fed Meeting 2026 LIVE: US Fed Meet Outcome at 11.30 Pm Today — All Eyes on Powell's Last Speech...
The Federal Reserve concluded its two‑day April meeting on 29 April, with Chair Jerome Powell expected to announce that the federal‑funds rate will remain in the 3.5‑3.75% target range for a third consecutive session. Powell’s remarks are likely to be his...
Morning Reads
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5‑3.75 % as Jerome Powell heads into his final meeting as chair, while the Senate moves Kevin Warsh’s nomination forward. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants—Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta—report...
Powell’s Last Meeting
Jerome Powell is set to leave the Federal Reserve after his term ends May 15, with the FOMC likely holding rates at 3.50‑3.75%. The article argues that despite political criticism of “tight” policy, the Fed under Powell pursued the easiest monetary...
Middle East Turmoil Fuels Inflation Fears, Testing Fed’s Patience
The Federal Reserve is poised to leave its policy rate unchanged as it confronts a volatile inflation outlook sparked by renewed Middle East conflict. Escalating tensions have pushed crude oil prices up roughly 8%, feeding higher headline and core consumer‑price...
Powell's Final Press Conference Could Signal Fed Pivot
Jerome Powell is set to deliver his final FOMC press conference as Fed Chair today, alongside a key interest rate decision at 2PM ET. Markets are on edge as investors look for signals on inflation, rate cuts, and the future path...
Tariffs Outpace Tax Cuts, Raising Net Costs
🎩 @wsj 👉PSA: tariffs are federal sales taxes. “The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that taxpayers will receive about a $188 billion reduction in federal tax liability for 2025” 👉”Those refunds and tax benefits, however, have been more than offset by the...
The Daily Feather — “Who’s Bad?”
The Daily Feather explores the origins of Michael Jackson’s 1987 hit “Bad,” revealing how the song merged gritty street narratives with cinematic ambition. Released as the title track of the follow‑up to Thriller, “Bad” was crafted to showcase Jackson’s evolving...
Jamie Dimon Gets Candid About National Debt: ‘There Will Be a Bond Crisis, and Then We’ll Have to Deal with...
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the United States could face a bond market crisis if policymakers delay action on the near‑$39 trillion national debt. He told Norges Bank Investment Management’s CEO that while he isn’t panicked, maturity of the...
Jamie Dimon Gets Candid About National Debt: ‘There Will Be a Bond Crisis, and Then We’ll Have to Deal with...
J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the United States faces a looming bond market crisis if policymakers fail to address the near‑$39 trillion national debt. He said the Treasury’s $1 trillion‑plus annual interest bill signals mounting risk, and that geopolitical...
Powell’s Final FOMC Meeting Faces Inflation Spike and Nominee Warsh’s Balance‑Sheet Push
Jerome Powell presided over his last Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 29 as U.S. inflation is projected to rise to 3.56% in April, a 116‑basis‑point two‑month jump driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict. At the same time, President‑elect Donald Trump’s...
Hilton Posts Record Q1 Earnings, CEO Predicts C‑Shaped Economy for Hotels
Hilton Worldwide posted a 13% jump in adjusted EBITDA to $901 million and a 3.6% rise in system‑wide RevPAR for Q1 2026. CEO Christopher Nassetta said the U.S. economy is moving toward a C‑shaped pattern, with stronger demand at lower‑ and mid‑scale...
US Treasury Yields Jump to 4.35% as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears
U.S. Treasury yields surged on Tuesday, with the two‑year note topping 3.85% and the 10‑year reaching 4.35%, the highest in about a month. The spike was driven by rising oil prices and heightened inflation worries amid the ninth‑week Iran‑related conflict,...
Nominal Wage Gains Neutralized by Inflation, Real Growth Stalls
Wages Rose. But Workers Barely Moved. 1/ A raise is not a recovery if prices take it back. That is what happened in March 2026. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5%. Consumer prices rose 3.3%. Real wage growth: 0.3%. That is not a wage boom. That is a holding...
Market Eyes Powell's Future at Today's FOMC Meeting
Main thing that's relevant in today's FOMC meeting is any guidance on whether Powell plans to remain as a fed governor or not
Stock Market Today: Powell to Stay on Fed Board, Central Bank Holds Rates Steady
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at what is likely Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting, while Powell announced he will remain on the Fed board beyond his May 15 term end. His decision follows a Justice Department criminal probe into...
Treasuries Near Multi-Year Breakdown Ahead of Powell's Final FOMC
$TLT Weekly. Headed into Powell's final FOMC, Treasuries on brink of not just multi-month breakdown but multi-year as well. Bear flag threat here, which means risk of rates spiking higher yet https://t.co/BKBIEADTxm
Senate Pushes Warsh Nomination Ahead of Fed Decision
Hours before the Fed's rate decision, the Senate Banking Committee advances Kevin Warsh's nomination along party lines. Now the full Senate must vote before May 15, when Powell's term as chair officially ends. https://t.co/6BvH57i0Y8 @nytimes
Federal Reserve at Crossroads: Leadership Shift & Policy Outlook
Kevin Warsh has been nominated to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, promising a more open, debate‑driven policy environment. The Fed’s 19‑member policy committee remains divided, with roughly half hawkish, a third centrist, and only a small minority favoring...
US Outperforms, Europe Underperforms: Surprise Gap Widens
US economic data keeps surprising to the upside, while European data keeps surprising to the downside. That gap just keeps growing, according to Bloomberg economic surprise indexes. https://t.co/aOsuCmkgUh
Powell Holds Rates Steady Amid Mixed Economic Data
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep interest rates steady on Wednesday as he struggles to parse a bewildering mix of data: rising energy prices, an uncertain labor market and questions over shifting tariff rates. Soon, it will all be Kevin Warsh’s...
Waiting Game: Markets Stall Ahead of Fed Powell’s Finale
Traders are sitting on the sidelines as the Federal Reserve’s June meeting approaches, with most expecting a rate hold at the 3.50%‑3.75% range and a neutral “steady as she goes” tone from Jerome Powell. Oil prices have jumped on the...
Oil Hits Record, Yields Firm Ahead of Hawkish FOMC
Two issues dominate today. Oil prices have risen. July Brent is at a new record and June WTI is approaching the March high. Bond yields are firmer. Second, is the FOMC meeting, where a hawkish hold is expected. Warsh...
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe: 'Lengthy' Hormuz Blockade (Podcast)
US equity‑index futures rose as investors positioned for a wave of big‑tech earnings and an upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. Washington warned banks of secondary sanctions if they facilitate Chinese private refiners buying Iranian oil, heightening US‑China tension ahead of...
US Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Improves, but Higher Gasoline Prices Still a Worry
U.S. consumer confidence edged up to 92.8 in April, a four‑month high, driven by a stock‑market rally and a cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict. The Conference Board’s index rose 0.6 point, outpacing Reuters’ forecast of 89.0. Despite the lift, consumers...
Powell Resists Cuts, Successor Pushes Immediate Rate Reductions
Powell's last press conference will argue against rate cuts while his incoming replacement has been calling for them as soon as possible. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7rXX9awR0b
Powell's Swan Song
Jerome Powell will deliver his final Federal Reserve press conference tomorrow before the Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as his successor. Powell is expected to argue that the Fed will keep rates steady because inflation risks have risen, even as unemployment...
U.S. Q4 2025 GDP Trimmed to 0.5% as Federal Spending Plunges 17% Annualized
The Bureau of Economic Analysis lowered the fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP growth rate to a 0.5% annualized increase, citing a sharp 17% annualized contraction in federal government spending. The revision highlights a slowdown in consumer spending, mixed investment trends, and a...
S&P Slides; Fed Meeting and Mega‑cap Earnings Dominate
MARKET RECAP 📉 S&P 500 fell lower today, but all eyes are on tomorrow 👀 We have the FOMC and potentially Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed chair, alongside 4 of the largest 10 companies in the world reporting earnings. Those...
Stocks and Bonds Fall as Fed Split Amid War Risks: Markets Wrap
Wall Street pushed stocks and bonds lower on April 28 after the Federal Reserve kept policy rates unchanged and warned that the ongoing war in Iran is clouding the outlook for the United States economy. Money‑market participants abandoned bets on...
Home‑buying Sentiment Hits Multiyear High
The consumer sentiment index on the intent to buy a new #home was released today at a multiyear high. #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
THE FED IS ALREADY PRINTING: $170B in Balance Sheet Expansion in 2026, the $2.4T Deficit, the Collapse of Foreign Demand,...
The Federal Reserve has quietly expanded its balance sheet by $170 billion year‑to‑date, a $510 billion annualized run‑rate representing more than 7.5% growth. This comes as the U.S. Treasury faces a $2.4 trillion budget deficit that will swell with additional war, defense, grid...
Unfilled FOMC Governor Seats Lose Voting Power
FOMC voting procedure geeks. Let's say Warsh is confirmed by June meeting and fills Miran's seat. Let's assume Powell resigns his governorship sometime before the meeting. Its possible that a new governor can be confirmed for Powell's...
Fed's Inflation Focus Risks Stock Market Amid Iran War
Will the Fed break the stock market as Chair Powell and the FOMC dial up their focus on inflation amid the US-Iran war? #Fed #FOMC #Powell #IranWar #StockMarket #Dollar #Oil #Gold #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ER2QbNR0qa
Assessing $25
If this passes, what impact (if any) do you think @RoKhanna’s $25 minimum wage will have on unemployment rate in California? Show your work. https://t.co/kMug9xSbSQ
2020‑Peak US Bonds Lose 30‑50% Real Value
If you bought 10 year US bonds near the peak in 2020, on an after inflation basis, you're still down 30% six years later. If you bought 30 year US bonds instead, you're down over 50%.