Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
Physicians are being warned that inflation can erode retirees' purchasing power more sharply than for working‑age patients, especially when fixed incomes meet rising healthcare costs. The article outlines how price spikes in prescription drugs, long‑term care, and everyday expenses disproportionately affect seniors. It provides practical advice for doctors to discuss cost‑of‑living adjustments, medication alternatives, and financial planning with their older patients. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a 4.2% annual increase in senior‑specific CPI versus 2.5% overall inflation.
A lot of businesses quietly struggled the last few years. Valuations came down. Growth slowed. But few people wanted to call it what it was. A silent recession. GDP technically grew, but inflation grew faster. Now the cycle may be shifting. And the operators positioning today could...
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged up to about 4.11% on Tuesday, remaining below the 200‑day moving average of 4.20%. The modest rise came as oil prices fluctuated around the $100 per barrel mark, tempering inflation concerns. Investors noted that the...
"Iran is only part of the story. There’s also the emergence of AI as a disruptive technology capable of suddenly wiping out, as well as creating, wealth for shareholders and creditors. There are the soured loans that are starting to...
A new Federal Reserve paper shows that labor‑market power dramatically reshapes how monetary policy affects employment and wages. Firms with low monopsony power increase their wage bills about 50% more than high‑monopsony firms after a 25‑basis‑point rate cut. Oligopsonistic markets...
What a chart. Gas prices are now $3.54, up more than 55 cents since before the war in Iran began. This is the highest gas price ever under President Trump (including his first term). This is effectively a $25/mo. tax on most households....
Existing home sales in the United States posted a modest 1.7% increase in February, marking the first uptick after a sharp decline the previous month. The rise caught many economists off‑guard, as most forecasts anticipated a continued slide. While the...
The Fed was already struggling to get inflation back to 2% before Trump opted for an all-out confrontation with Iran. Now, elevated energy prices, if sustained, risk delaying that progress further, entangling the central bank in yet another challenging debate...
Single‑family acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) loan stock slipped 1.5% in Q4 2025, reaching $456.3 billion despite two Fed rate cuts. While overall AD&C volume fell, 1‑4‑family residential construction loans rose 1.7% year‑over‑year, marking a second consecutive YoY gain. Nonaccrual and...
Retail sales in February posted modest month‑over‑month growth and robust year‑over‑year gains, marking the fifth straight month of increases. Total retail sales, excluding auto dealers and gasoline stations, rose 0.28% from January and were up 6.24% compared with February 2025....
The piece contends that Trump‑era tariffs have slashed the U.S. trade deficit with China, delivering a 32% drop and pushing the deficit to its lowest level in 21 years. China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 13% to 7% within...
"The aggregate wage bill of private employers surveyed in the report rose 5.5% relative to year-ago levels, its largest increase in 16 months. This translates to 3% annual growth in workers’ real purchasing power, an increase of 230 basis points...
A new University of Chicago paper shows that private‑sector data—ADP payroll figures, Vanguard income and hiring metrics, and JPMorgan Chase checking‑account transactions—can reliably forecast the first and third releases of the BLS non‑farm payrolls and core CPI. The study argues that...
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.8 in February, missing the 99.6 consensus. Despite the dip, the reading stays above the 52‑year historical average of 98. NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg noted higher sales and profits but warned...
Private‑sector median pay awards rose to 3.4% in the three months to January 2026, up from 3.0% previously. One‑fifth of private settlements now exceed 4%, indicating growing pressure to offset lingering cost‑of‑living stresses despite easing inflation. Manufacturing saw its median...
U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the board for the week ending March 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate rose 0.13 percentage points, while the 10‑year advanced 0.18 points to 4.15 %. The 3‑year note settled at 3.59 %, reflecting broader upward pressure on government debt yields....
Senator Cory Booker just proposed a major tax bill: - increase the standard deduction to $75,000 (married) or $37,500 (single) - child tax credit increase to $3,600 per child (age 6 to 17) with an additional $2,400 “baby bonus” This would be paid...
The housing market is hitting stagflation. Jobs are cooling, but the unauthorized war in Iran is keeping oil prices and rates high. Sellers are losing patience and re-listings are at a decade high, giving buyers more leverage. https://t.co/tK43N2ajFT
On March 9 2009 the S&P 500 closed at a historic low of 676, marking the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis market decline. The National Bureau of Economic Research later confirmed the recession officially ended in June 2009, but did not announce this...
Trade US CPI LIVE tomorrow with Boris and Sam starting at 8AM ET / 12 GMT @fxflow They'll be hunting for opportunities in NQ, Gold and Forex https://t.co/9c2DFZTDGK
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.09% Same day last year: 6.72% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.12% Spread today: 197 bps
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The New York Federal Reserve’s February consumer survey shows the expected quit rate fell to 15.9%, the lowest in more than a decade, as employers shed 92,000 jobs. Hiring slowed dramatically, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting a 3.3%...
My column in @FortuneMagazine on the US deficit and inflation: "If the Trump budget deficits continue to be financed through the banking system & money market funds, the growth rate in the money supply will continue to accelerate & headline inflation...
My new column in @FortuneMagazine on US inflation: "If the rate of growth in broad money is controlled, then higher spending on oil & gasoline will be offset by lower spending on other items, restraining overall inflation." INFLATION = A MONETARY PHENOMENON.
Gas prices hovering just above $3 per gallon have acted as a modest tailwind for U.S. consumers, but a rise to $4 per gallon would erase that benefit and return to a neutral stance relative to wages. The economy is...
From my friend at Stategas @donrissmiller: Energy prices have been extreme - but several factors are keeping inflation down - rent, car prices and Quits not leading to higher comp. = inflation remains at 2-3% with a 10...
This is one of the many consequences of boomers pulling up the ladder on the American dream. The drop in labor's share of GDP over the years says it all. https://t.co/yx32ZJh5Ux
Redfin economists warn that mortgage rates could remain volatile as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives oil prices toward levels last seen during the Ukraine war and fresh inflation data arrives. February core CPI is projected to rise 0.2% month‑over‑month, while the...
The Fed is winning the war against wage growth, at least on 2 of the 3, but probably would love to see lower wage growth in the higher end
Wall Street has inflation as measured by the CPI running sideways in February and holding near the lowest 12-month rates in five years* *at least until April, when the data collection/imputation distortions from the Oct govt shutdown could fully unwind...
Kevin Muir argues that claims of the business cycle’s demise are overstated, noting that cyclical patterns still shape macroeconomic outcomes. He points to a recent tipping point where labor market slack is eroding, causing unemployment to rise faster than expected....
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi saw recession odds climb above 34% on Monday, the highest level since November, after U.S. crude oil breached the $100 per barrel threshold. The surge in oil prices follows recent Middle‑Eastern output cuts and the closure of...
The construction sector shed 11,000 jobs in February, according to ABC’s analysis of BLS data. Despite the monthly decline, employment is up 42,000 jobs year‑over‑year, a modest 0.5% gain. Nonresidential construction fell 3,800 positions, driven by a 6,500‑job loss in...
The Worst Jobs Report Since the Pandemic Raises New Labor Market Fears The February 2026 jobs report shows a loss of 92,000 jobs—the worst since the pandemic—and the weakness runs deeper than one strike or a temporary shutdown. Job losses...
The odds of no cut in 2026 jumped from 5% to 17%. The White House wants many cuts, but the truth is that is getting harder. Only one cut is priced in today. Two weeks ago it was about a...
President Donald Trump has launched a direct military campaign against Iran despite a domestic economy plagued by rising unemployment and stubborn inflation. The article argues that the conflict will further erode public finances, adding new pressure on the federal budget....
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Recent employment trends combined with the oil price spike suggest recession risk is rising, and this was not on the market's bingo card this year... Though February job losses were skewed by one-time effects, the weakness is nonetheless part of...
CPI and PCE both drop this week with oil above $100 and payrolls negative. If inflation runs hot, the Fed can't cut. If it cools, the economy is already cracking. Stagflation isn't a risk. It's the base case. https://t.co/L3cc4tvY1T
10-year yield at 4.15%. Up 18 bps in a week. Bonds selling off into a growth scare. That's not supposed to happen. When Treasuries stop being a safe haven, the playbook is broken. https://t.co/yIChc2y0aR
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6
The % of workers who plan to quit their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the NY Fed's survey. People who have a job are not giving them up right now https://t.co/p7kO4PdQ2A
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
It's actually easy to design mechanisms for killing corporate tax avoidance schemes, if anyone actually cared. Just tax stock returns https://t.co/mpVe5FLf7C
U.S. consumers are hit harder by rising oil prices than Europeans because we use more oil. The fact we produce it here doesn't help consumers, unless we tax the oil industry https://t.co/DZQmvyBSMk
Post-pandemic, American consumer (homeowner) debt was locked in cheap for ever and it made the Fed’s job more difficult. Raising rates didn’t impact spending as much. But we drive big cars long distances so oil spikes impact our spend...
"Tariffs may have affected manufacturing employment, which declined by 119,000 in 2025. Likewise, the trade sensitive transportation and warehousing sector declined by 123,800." https://t.co/ed9bs6nNSn
The war in Iran is scrambling the economic outlook for the Federal Reserve — again. https://t.co/TGmVeLOISN
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
